I. The Environmental Movement in the US

C. Increasing Awareness of Environmental Issues

• Extensive scientific scrutiny• Intense media coverage• Global communication technology

D. New Technology• Satellite-based sensors• Automated monitoring equipment• Powerful computers• Real-time communication

II. Recent Environmental Trends

• Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide

• Reduction in thickness of ozone layer over the poles

• Warming of troposphere and surface waters in ocean; rise in sea level

• Environmental accidents at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Bhopal, Gulf of Mexico, Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, etc.

• Declining populations of many species• Loss of forests and other habitats to

development• Increasing global population of humans

III. No Clear Cut Issues

• How do we know that increasing CO2 concentrations, ozone holes and global warming are “abnormal”?

• Accidents are inevitable; the benefits of nuclear power and modern chemicals outweigh the costs

• Nobody really knows how many species there are on earth, and population declines or extinctions are part of a natural process

• Forests are far from gone, and responsible logging and replanting of trees makes good use of an important, renewable resource

• How do we judge whether or not there are too many people on earth?

IV. Hyperbole

• Extravagant exaggeration, often to make a point

• Why use hyperbole? Why not just stick to the unembellished facts?

• Because your opponents are using it• Because the ends justify the means

• Many environmentalists feel that they can’t afford to lose, even once

V. Is There an Environmental Crisis?

A. YES• Global environmental problems are

placing natural and human systems at risk• Development is displacing and destroying

critical ecosystems (e.g. wetlands, forests)• Large areas of public land, including

national forest, aren’t being managed sustainably

• Fresh water sources are being consumed and contaminated at an alarming rate

• Overfishing is critically depleting our most important commercial fisheries

V. Is There an Environmental Crisis?

A. YES• Cleanup and disposal of waste has

become increasingly difficult• Indirect sources of pollution (e.g. runoff)

have become progressively worse• Farmlands are suffering from a loss of soil

and excessive use of chemicals (leads to salt buildup, decreasing fertility, etc.)

• Fresh water aquifers are being consumed and contaminated at an alarming rate

• Dead Sea level dropping by 1 m y-1

• Colorado River

V. Is There an Environmental Crisis?

A. NO• Humans are living longer and healthier lives

than ever• Manufacturing processes of all kinds are

more efficient and less wasteful than before• Air and water quality are good and improving• Costs of goods and services are at all-time

lows• Estimates of species extinction rates and

climate change are overstated and unfounded

• The earth is rich in resources with many still undiscovered

VI. Criteria for Crisis

A. Overpopulation1. PROBLEM• From beginning of human species to end

of World War II: >10,000 generations to reach a world population of a little more than 2 billion people

• Past 67 years: global population has gone from just over 2 billion to an estimated 7.04 billion, and in another 38 years it’s projected to exceed 9 billion!

• Global population currently increasing at a rate of ~8900 people per hour!PopClock

VI. Criteria for Crisis

A. Overpopulation1. PROBLEM• World’s developed nations contain <25%

of global population but use more than 75% of world’s raw material consumption annually

• Over their lifetime, an American child born today will have more than 30 times the environmental impact of a child born in India

VI. Criteria for Crisis

A. Overpopulation2. NO PROBLEM• On average, people are living longer and

eating better than ever (Simon, Lomborg)• A smaller percentage of people is dying from

famine than ever before

• Main problem isn’t overpopulation, it’s limited access to resources

• Prices of food and commodities are lower now than ever before, indicating greater resource availability, not scarcity

I US, UK, Canada, Aus, NZUS, UK, Canada, Aus, NZ

II JapanJapan

III

France, Germany, France, Germany, Netherlands, ScandinaviaNetherlands, Scandinavia

IV

Rest of W. Europe, E. Rest of W. Europe, E. Europe, Latin America, Europe, Latin America, Former Soviet UnionFormer Soviet Union

V Asia (except Japan), AfricaAsia (except Japan), Africa

http://minneapolisfed.org/pubs/region/04-05/figure3.cfm

VI. Criteria for Crisis

A. Overpopulation2. NO PROBLEM• Long-term increases in population lead to

advances in technology that result (in the long run) in lower prices (Simon, Lomborg)

• “People create resources”

• Population Increase Increased Demand Resource Shortage Price Increase Entrepreneurism and Technological Innovation Increased Resource Availability Price Decrease

• “The Ultimate Resource”

Table 21.2Resource Prices Indexed to Wages, 1950-90

(Relative to 1990 Baseline)

Resource 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Change (%)

1950-90

Fooda 386 210 145 161 100 -74

Lumber 170 114 95 126 100 -41

Paper 139 121 97 104 100 -28

Mineralsb 194 147 179 217 100 -48

Energyc 184 126 74 138 100 -46

SOURCE: Moore, pp. 18-19, 23, 30-31, 40.aIncludes barley, broilers, carrots, cattle, corn, cotton, eggs, milk, oats, oranges, rice, sorghum, soybeans, wheat and wool.bIncludes aluminum, antimony, copper, lead, magnesium, manganese, mercury, nickel, platinum, silver, tin, tungsten and zinc.cIncludes coal, electricity, natural gas and oil. http://www.cato.org/pubs/chapters/marlib21.html