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GameOn:Hypercompetition andAdvantageinthePACOMAoR
YearIOut-BrieftotheLANPACSymposium22May2018
ProjectDirector:[email protected]
Agenda
• StudyBackgroundandOverview
• Findings
• Hypercompetition
• ChinaNetAssessment
• FindingsandWayAhead
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ResearchQuestions• Whatarethestrategic“fundamentals”forcreatingandexploitingwindowsof
transientadvantage(hypercompetition)withinthecontestedcompetitivespaces(thetraditionaldomains,theEMS,andthestrategicinfluencespace)?
• WhatU.S./partnerstrategyandpolicyinitiativesarecriticaltomasteringregionalhypercompetition andsecuringenduringdefenseobjectives?
• ProjectDescription:Thisstudyprovidesbroadly-informed, independent fundamentalsofthriving inhypercompetition andexpandingthecompetitivespace.
• WhattheStudyDoesDo:Inconsultationwithsponsors, stakeholders,anddefenseanalysts,thisstudyprovides thestrategiccontext formulti-domainoperations.
• WhattheStudyDoesNotDo: ThisdoesnotprovideoperationalortacticalsolutionsforPACOM’s“pacing”and“priority”competitors.GreatworkonthesesubjectsisoccurringacrosstheJointForce.
• Benefit: Thiscontributesananalyticmodelandimportantfindings/recommendationstofocusU.S.andpartnerdefenseenterprisesandmilitaryservicesonapersistent,disruptive, andintenseperiodofhypercompetition fortransientandexploitablemilitaryadvantageintheIndo-Pacific.
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GAME ON: Hypercompetition and Advantage…
Findings and Recommendations
• TheUnitedStateshasloststrategicinitiativein thePACOMAoR and isnotcurrentlyagile,creative,andresourcefulenough forprolonged hypercompetition withPACOM’s pacingrival(China).
• U.S.securitypartnerships inthePACOMAoR areboth theUnitedStates’greatestandmostfragileregional competitiveadvantage.
• U.S.regionalpostureand forcesareinadequate andill-suitedforahypercompetitiveenvironment.
• Cross-domainallied/partner capabilitiesareessentialtoaU.S.regionalresetandanewmorecreativeU.S.-ledregionalsecurityorder.
• Theheavilycontested“strategicinfluence”spaceisthemostimportantbut leastunderstood competitive“domain” inPACOM.
• RivalgrayzonemaneuverandasymmetricescalationarecurrentU.S.vulnerabilities;effectiveU.S.adoption ofthesamewouldpresent regionalU.S.rivalswithmultipledilemmas.
• Initiateaninnovative,purposeful, anddramaticPACOMreset– Rebalance3.0.
• Reassertregional securityleadership throughcreativecross-domainmultilateralism,usingallinstrumentsofnationalpower.
• Construct adisruptive,agile,andresilient regionaljointandcombineddefensearchitecture– forces,agreements,andfootprints.
• Developacommon jointandcombinedPACOM“operatingmodel”– definingnewNDS’concepts (e.g.,contact,blunt,surge,andhomeland layers)inaregional cross-domaincontext.
• InitiateaU.S.PACOMresetwithajointandcombined, cross-domaingrayzonecampaigntocounter the region’spacingandpriority rivals.
• Resetlong-termU.S.andpartner regionalapproaches forsustainedhypercompetition employingthe“layersofcompetitiveactivity”:engage,expand,andcontest;dissuade,disrupt,anddeter;decideanddefeat;reorientand reset.
CapabilityandCapacity
Vision,PurposePartnerships
StrategicMethods
ToR: Animating Idea = “Hypercompetition”
The Study’s Three Lines of Effort and Nine Strategic Fundamentals adopted from D’Aveni’sThree Methods of Disruption and Seven Strategies (7-S’s) for Hypercompetitive Environments
LOE 1 - Purpose, Vision, and Partnerships1) Strength of Interest2) Legitimacy3) Innovation
LOE 2 - Capabilities and Capacity4) Strategic Capacity5) Speed6) Surprise
LOE 3 - Strategic Methods7) Shifting Rules of Competition8) Strategic Signaling9) Strategic Maneuver
Strategic Competitive Advantage
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“Hypercompetition” describes conditions where competitive advantage is not sustainable and/or competitors are persistently attempting to erode the opponent’s competitive
advantage.
Hypercompetitive military rivalry is a persistent struggle for important but transient advantage across and within highly contested spaces – air, land, sea, space, and cyber domains; the electromagnetic spectrum, and the strategic influence space.
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ToR: Framework for Analysis (9 Fundamentals)
LineofEffort Fundamental DescriptionPurpose,Vision,andPartnerships
StrengthofInterest Strengthandclarityofwill,objectives, interest, andrisk.
Legitimacy Broad influenceoverandcooperative relationships with willingpartners.
Innovation Predisposition tocombineforesight, earlyrecognition, andrisk-takinginpursuit ofgame-changinginnovation andopportunity.
Capabilities andCapacity StrategicCapacity Breadth anddepth toquicklymobilize resourcesandharnessandblendpublic, private,andpartnersolutions toseizeopportunities, meetsurgedemands,andgeneratedisruptive strategicadvantages.
Speed Capability– throughposture, maneuver,re-organization, andre-tasking– torapidlyreframestrategicconditions inone’sfavor.
Surprise Capabilitytogenerateconceptual, cognitive,technological, andpositional advantage.
StrategicMethods Shifting RulesofCompetition Abilitytoredefinethecharacter ofsecuritycompetition andselectivelyweaponizeandexploit non-military capabilities andmethods.
StrategicSignaling Capabilitytocreatenarrative(s)anduseinformation toadvanceinterests andobjectiveswhileeroding adversaryposition.
StrategicManeuver Abilitytoactasadisruptive “firstmover”and“fastfollower” acrossinstruments ofpowertounhinge rivaladvantageandintent.
The USAWC study team identified the following nine strategic fundamentals of hypercompetition. And, in the process, answered the first of two key research questions.
These fundamentals are the basis for the study’s net assessment of the PACOM region’s competitive dynamics.
NatureofCompetition:PRC
• “Riskofinaction”— Eachuncontestedactionemboldens PRCtoassumegreaterrisk
• Increased“riskconfusion”— PRCeffectivelyexpands,compresses,andconvergesthecompetitivespace.
• Expands – 2axes,BeltandRoad;“omnidirectionality”
• Compresses — Time(faitaccompli)• Converges— “Synchronous”action,
WeaponizationofEverything
The PRC is the “pacing” U.S. rival. It will persist in purposeful gray zone campaigning and will accept more risk as relative power increases.
Net Assessment: Advantage US v. PRCCategory ADV REL SalientFactorsStrengthofInterest
PRC - US-PRCdisparityofinterests:SCS,ECS,andTaiwan- Whichinterests-- security,economic, corporate,academia,public?
Legitimacy US - Competing visionsforanewIAPsecurityorder. PRC’s“championofthedevelopedworld”gainingonpost-WWIIeramodelof“worldorder”
Innovation US - PRCIPtheft,techtransfers,anddeepinvestmentininnovationandresearchwilldisruptUSadvantage
StrategicCapacity
PRC - UShaslostdiversityandresiliency instrategic industriesandinnovationbase:partlyduetoPRChypercompetition,partlyself-inflicted
Speed PRC - Tyrannyofdistance disadvantagestheUS- PRC“leap-frogging”and“fastfollower”provingfasterthanUSbureaucracy
Surprise PRC - PRCcontinuestodisruptUSmarketshareinareasthatwereonceindisputableareasofUSadvantage:commercialUAS,AI,superconductors
ShiftingRules
PRC - PRCactivelycampaignsbelowthethresholdofarmedconflict.“ThreeWarfares”andweaponizationofeverythingcreatingriskconfusion
Signaling PRC - PRC moreagileat“narrativewarfare;”PRCunderminingUS“rebalancenarrative”
StrategicManeuver
PRC - PRCshapesthepotential futurebattlefield toitsdefensiveadvantage- USMDB=simultaneousjointops;PRCConcept=synchronousDIMEFILaction
NoAdvantage MarginalAdvantage
SignificantAdvantage
Dominating 8
Findings and Recommendations
• TheUnitedStateshasloststrategicinitiativein thePACOMAoR and isnotcurrentlyagile,creative,andresourcefulenough forprolonged hypercompetition withPACOM’s pacingrival(China).
• U.S.securitypartnerships inthePACOMAoR areboth theUnitedStates’greatestandmostfragileregional competitiveadvantage.
• U.S.regionalpostureand forcesareinadequate andill-suitedforahypercompetitiveenvironment.
• Cross-domainallied/partner capabilitiesareessentialtoaU.S.regionalresetandanewmorecreativeU.S.-ledregionalsecurityorder.
• Theheavilycontested“strategicinfluence”spaceisthemostimportantbut leastunderstood competitive“domain” inPACOM.
• RivalgrayzonemaneuverandasymmetricescalationarecurrentU.S.vulnerabilities;effectiveU.S.adoption ofthesamewouldpresent regionalU.S.rivalswithmultipledilemmas.
• Initiateaninnovative,purposeful, anddramaticPACOMreset– Rebalance3.0.
• Reassertregional securityleadership throughcreativecross-domainmultilateralism,usingallinstrumentsofnationalpower.
• Construct adisruptive,agile,andresilient regionaljointandcombineddefensearchitecture– forces,agreements,andfootprints.
• Developacommon jointandcombinedPACOM“operatingmodel”– definingnewNDS’concepts (e.g.,contact,blunt,surge,andhomeland layers)inaregional cross-domaincontext.
• InitiateaU.S.PACOMresetwithajointandcombined, cross-domaingrayzonecampaigntocounter the region’spacingandpriority rivals.
• Resetlong-termU.S.andpartner regionalapproaches forsustainedhypercompetition employingthe“layersofcompetitiveactivity”:engage,expand,andcontest;dissuade,disrupt,anddeter;decideanddefeat;reorientand reset.
CapabilityandCapacity
Vision,PurposePartnerships
StrategicMethods
Way AheadGoods• Consistency.Insights,findings andrecommendationsarealignedwiththenewNationalDefenseStrategy(NDS).
• All-domain.MDOisawaytoexpandthecompetitivespace.
• Threatbased.Greatpowercompetitiondrivesstrategyandplanning (seenewNationalMilitaryStrategy).
• Regionalrelevance.AchangeinleadershipinthePACOMAoR offersanopportunity toinformCCDRdirection.
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Others• InfluenceintheAoR?Wideacknowledgement thattheU.S.mayloseinfluencewithpartnersandalliesinfaceofarising,greatpowerChinawithintheIndo-Pacific(andglobally).
• Howdowegofast? Nearconsensus that(atpresent)U.S.isnotwellpositionedconceptually,materially,andinstitutionally forPACOM’sendemicall-domainhyper-competition.
• Tippingpoint?Hypercompetition isabouttransientcross-domainadvantage;trendsforecastapossiblepermanentU.S.regionaldisadvantage.
U.S.positionisvulnerable.Reducingvulnerabilityreliesonexpandingandexploitingthecompetitivespace.AchievingexploitableadvantageisimpossiblewithoutthesupportofU.S.regionalalliesandpartners.
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BACK-UPSLIDES
AdditionalWorkingGroups,Team,ETC.
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Findings and Recommendations (Continued): Four Layers of Competitive Activity
GetintheGameNow
• Engagealliesandpartnersinanewmorecreativemultilateralism,federatingandeffectivelynetworkingapproachestoregionalsecurity.• Expand thecompetitivespaceverticallyandhorizontally;acrossblendeddomainsofdecisionandactionandhighlycontestedspaces.• Contestthroughcross-domainmaneuverandpressurerivalattemptstocoercivelyreshapetheregionalsecurityorder.
ActivelyCampaign
• Dissuadebyanticipationandearlyactionrivaladoptionofdestabilizingcapabilities,methods,orcoursesofaction.
• Dirsupt rivaldesignsthroughpersistentcross-domainoffensivemaneuver.• Deterrivalhostilitythroughcrediblecross-domain“presence”andcost-imposingapproaches.
PicktheRightBattlesandAcceptGoodEnough
• Decide andactcreativelytocounterovertprovocationandaggressionwiththebenefitforesight.• Defeattherivalaggressionanddenytheirpurposebyimposingcostsonfriendlytermswhileofferingrivalsviableface-savingexits.
RegainBalanceandPersist
• Reorientunderpressureandadapttomeaningfulchangeinstrategiccircumstances.• Resetstrategy,plans,andpostureforpersistenthypercompetition.
Contemporaryhypercompetition requiresconstantlayeredcompetitiveactivityacrossandwithinwhatarehighly-contestedstrategicspaces.
Hypercompetitiveadvantagemostoftengoestorivalsthatarebiasedforactionandposturedtoseizetransientopportunities.
2018NationalDefenseStrategy
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Study Background – Methodology• Assembledahigh-qualitystudyteamofconsistingof4faculty,7residentstudent researchers,and4
residentstudentcontributorsfromtheUSAWCCarlisleScholarsProgram(CSP).• Thestudyteamconducteditsresearchandroll-outinfourphasesfromJuly’17- June‘18:
• PhaseI: Developpreliminary insights.
• PhaseII: Refineandtestinsights.• PhaseIII: Recordandreportfindings.
• PhaseIV:Socializeresults.
• Thestudyproceededaccordingtothefollowingapproach:• Assemble anexpertcommunity ofinterest/practicecomprisedofsubjectmatterexpertsandseniorleaders
withinDoD,stakeholders/study sponsors, andoutside experts.
• Conduct aliterature/policy/plans review;expert/stakeholderinterviews, consultations, androundtables;andoriginalresearch.
• Vetinsights, recommendations, andfindings throughtheexpertcommunity ofinterest(4xexpertworkinggroupsand1xseniorreviewgroup).
• Produceafinalwrittenreport,produce atleastone800-1000wordopinionpiece(stretchgoalisthree);andproduceapolicy-relevantbriefingonkeystudy findings.
• Socializefindings throughextensivepost-study stakeholderengagement.
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Thestudyteamcapturedthewidest,mostdiversesetofperspectivesitcouldinthetimeavailable.
The Expert Working Group• The Expert Working Group included representatives from:
ü ABCANZOffice
ü AirCommandandStaffCollege
ü AEI
ü ArmyCapabilitiesIntegrationCenter
ü ArmyQDRO
ü ArmyScienceBoard
ü CNA
ü CRS
ü CSIS
ü CSBA
ü InstituteforDefenseAnalysis
ü JDSolutionsLLC
ü JointStaffJ5
ü JointStaffJ7
ü MarineCorpsWarCollege
ü MarineCorpsCombatDevelopmentCommand
ü TheMitchellInstitute
ü MITRE
ü NDU/INSS
ü OfficeoftheSecretaryofDefense
ü RAND
ü UnitedStatesArmyPacific
ü U.S.ArmyWarCollege
ü AirStaff
ü ArmyStaff
ü HeadquartersMarineCorps
ü NavyStaff
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Study Background: The Precedents
The Research Team
NateFreierProf,SSI
ProjectLead
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William“Trey”BraunProf,SSI
FredGellertProf,DCLM
MikeHatfieldSeminar17
TeamChiefofStaff
AndrewUlmerSeminar22
AndrewZinnSeminar21
LisaLambSeminar18
YutakaOkadaSeminar23
InternationalFellowJapan
AlLordProf,DMSPO
JeffSheehanSeminar16
JimHayesSeminar20
D E P A R T M E N T O F D E F E N S E
Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge
N A T I O N A L D E F E N S E S T R A T E G Y
• Build a More Lethal Force• Establish a tailored and flexible nuclear deterrent, decisive conventional
force, and irregular warfare as a core competency • Modernize key capabilities• Develop and implement innovative operational concepts• Ensure a lethal, agile, and resilient force posture and employment• Cultivate workforce talent
• Strengthen Alliances and Attract New Partners• Uphold foundation of mutual respect, responsibility, and accountability • Expand regional consultative mechanisms and collaborative planning• Deepen interoperability and integrate defense strengths for deterrence • Shift burden sharing discussion to practical, constructive focus designed to
optimize allied/partner constellation to achieve our strategic objectives
• Reform the Department for Greater Performance & Affordability• Deliver performance at speed of relevance• Drive budget discipline and affordability to achieve solvency• Streamline rapid, iterative approaches from development to fielding• Harness and protect the National Security Innovation Base
Strategic Approach: Expand the Competitive Space
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