Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking, 2006

ResearchPublication Date: 11 July 2006 ID Number: G00140974

© 2006 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction and distribution of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner's research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking, 2006 Phillip Redman, Rachna Ahlawat, Monica Basso, Ken Dulaney, Patti A. Reali, William Clark, Sylvain Fabre, Leif-Olof Wallin, Jouni Forsman, Bettina Tratz-Ryan, Sandy Shen, Nick Jones, John Girard

For the Wireless Networking Hype Cycle, Gartner continues to evaluate the standards-based technologies that will have the most impact in the field. Rapid development, but slower maturation and adoption, are leading to the most crowded Trough of Disillusionment Gartner has seen.

Publication Date: 11 July 2006/ID Number: G00140974 Page 2 of 31

© 2006 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 What You Need to Know ............................................................................................................. 4 2.0 The Hype Cycle ........................................................................................................................... 4 3.0 The Priority Matrix ....................................................................................................................... 6 4.0 On the Rise.................................................................................................................................. 7

4.1 VoIP WWAN ................................................................................................................... 7 4.2 RFID Warehouse Management Systems....................................................................... 8 4.3 High-Speed Uplink Packet Access................................................................................. 8 4.4 Near-Field Communication............................................................................................. 9 4.5 802.15.4/ZigBee ............................................................................................................. 9 4.6 802.11r.......................................................................................................................... 10 4.7 802.11k (Radio Resource Measurement) .................................................................... 10

5.0 At the Peak ................................................................................................................................ 11 5.1 802.16-2005 WiMAX .................................................................................................... 11 5.2 CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev. A....................................................................................... 11 5.3 Unlicensed Mobile Access............................................................................................ 12 5.4 IMS ............................................................................................................................... 12 5.5 Ultrawideband/Wireless USB ....................................................................................... 13 5.6 802.11n......................................................................................................................... 14 5.7 CAPWAP/LWAPP ........................................................................................................ 14

6.0 Sliding Into the Trough .............................................................................................................. 15 6.1 High-Speed Downlink Packet Access .......................................................................... 15 6.2 TD-SCDMA...................................................................................................................16 6.3 802.16-2004 WiMAX .................................................................................................... 16 6.4 Mesh Networks — Sensor............................................................................................ 17 6.5 Mesh Networks: Wide Area.......................................................................................... 17 6.6 WPA Security ............................................................................................................... 18 6.7 Point-to-Point Wireless Bridges.................................................................................... 19 6.8 Next-Generation Satellite ............................................................................................. 19 6.9 VoIP WLAN .................................................................................................................. 20 6.10 CDMA2000 1xEV-DO................................................................................................. 21 6.11 Location-Aware Technology....................................................................................... 21 6.12 WCDMA and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System.................................... 22 6.13 WMM Power Save/802.11e U-APSD......................................................................... 23 6.14 Mesh Networking........................................................................................................ 23

7.0 Climbing the Slope .................................................................................................................... 24 7.1 Enhanced Data for Global Evolution ............................................................................ 24

8.0 Entering the Plateau .................................................................................................................. 24 8.1 Bluetooth Version 2.0 ...................................................................................................24 8.2 WPA2............................................................................................................................ 25 8.3 Wi-Fi 802.11a/b/g ......................................................................................................... 26

9.0 Off the Hype Cycle .................................................................................................................... 26 10.0 Appendices.............................................................................................................................. 27

10.1 Appendix A: Previous Iteration of the Hype Cycle ..................................................... 27 10.2 Appendix B: Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels..................... 29



LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Hype Cycle Phases ........................................................................................................... 29 Table 2. Benefit Ratings .................................................................................................................. 29 Table 3. Maturity Levels .................................................................................................................. 29

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking, 2006........................................................................ 5 Figure 2. Priority Matrix for Wireless Networking, 2006 .................................................................... 7 Figure 3. For Reference: Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking, 2005............................................. 27



ANALYSIS

1.0 What You Need to Know A change has begun, wherein wireless revenue is driving the global telecommunication strategy. Service provider consolidation is moving wireless voice and, soon, data services to the forefront. Enterprise buying decisions are also standardizing, and future strategies should include wireless services. By the end of 2006, global wireless service revenue will exceed that of fixed-line for the first time. Wireless LANs, although spread wide into many enterprises, have not yet spread deep enough to match the use and penetration of wired networking.

2.0 The Hype Cycle Mobile and wireless services continue to drive subscriber and revenue growth in every region of the globe. The continued development of cellular, WiMAX and Wi-Fi technologies for mobile data are spurring new standards, companies and new opportunities. Each of these three technologies is still in its infancy. Although there is much opportunity ahead, there is still low adoption of enterprise wireless data: Gartner estimated just 8 million to 10 million corporate wireless e-mail subscribers at year-end 2005, for example, and most operators still only average around 10 percent of their revenue from data compared to voice. High-speed wide-area networks supporting Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) and Evolution Data Optimized (EV-DO) are just getting to more uniform, ubiquitous coverage, but are expected to drive increased revenue opportunities and applications in the coming years.

Wi-Fi, although ubiquitous on notebook computers and showing continued growth in public hot spots, has not yet reached full adoption in the enterprise, as most continue with tactical, targeted implementations. WiMAX standards continue to mature, but services based on 802.16 2004 have stalled while operators wait for the mobile 802.16 2005 version just ratified at the end of 2005.

The growth of the telecom industry is reliant mainly on the service and mobile sectors and the rise in the past few years of standards and next-generation technologies. This growth initially led to a crowded Peak of Inflated Expectations and has caused a jam at the Trough of Disillusionment in 2006. Rapid adoption of third-generation Wi-Fi and cellular technologies will lead to a quick maturing of these technologies in the next two years.



Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking, 2006

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated

ExpectationsTrough of

Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity

time

visibility

Years to mainstream adoption:less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years

obsoletebefore plateau

As of July 2006

Wi-Fi 802.11a/b/g

WPA2

Bluetooth Version 2.0

Enhanced Data for Global Evolution

Mesh NetworkingWMM Power Save/802.11e U-APSDWCDMA and Universal Mobile Telecommunications SystemLocation-Aware TechnologyCDMA2000 1xEV-DO

VoIP WLANNext-Generation Satellite

Point-to-Point Wireless BridgesWPA Security

Mesh Networks: Wide Area

TD-SCDMA

802.16-2004 WiMAXMesh Networks: Sensor

High-Speed Downlink Packet Access

802.11n

Ultrawideband/Wireless USBIMS

Unlicensed Mobile AccessCDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev. A

802.16-2005 WiMAX

802.11k (Radio Resource Measurement)

802.15.4/ZigBee

Near-Field Communication

RFID Warehouse Management Systems

VoIP WWAN

High-Speed Uplink Packet Access

802.11r

CAPWAP/LWAPP

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



time

visibility

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



time

visibility

time

visibility





As of July 2006

Wi-Fi 802.11a/b/g

WPA2

Bluetooth Version 2.0


Mesh NetworkingWMM Power Save/802.11e U-APSDWCDMA and Universal Mobile Telecommunications SystemLocation-Aware TechnologyCDMA2000 1xEV-DO

VoIP WLANNext-Generation Satellite

Point-to-Point Wireless BridgesWPA Security


TD-SCDMA

802.16-2004 WiMAXMesh Networks: Sensor


802.11n

Ultrawideband/Wireless USBIMS

Unlicensed Mobile AccessCDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev. A

802.16-2005 WiMAX


802.15.4/ZigBee

Near-Field Communication


VoIP WWAN

High-Speed Uplink Packet Access

802.11r

CAPWAP/LWAPP

Source: Gartner (July 2006)



3.0 The Priority Matrix Next-generation wireless LAN standards and high-speed cellular will be leading the way in the priority matrix as enterprise adoption continues. As operators roll out next-generation services, there is usually a lag as devices and services are launched. Capital expenditures in new services continue, and by the end of 2006, there will be PC Cards and smartphones that will work on high-speed networks around the world. Many companies are already evaluating these data cards, and as pricing continues to fall and operators bundle in better packages for voice and data, Gartner estimates significant growth for data services for applications like wireless e-mail and Internet access. Managed service providers will also be bundling together remote access services with management capabilities to assist in securing and managing the multitude of services available.

In the next two to five years, some emphasis on short-range personal-area networking (PAN) will increase as more than just handhelds and notebook computers become wireless. Next-generation standards of Bluetooth incorporating ultra-wideband (UWB) and ZigBee will connect mobile and nonmobile devices. Wireless technology for sensor networks using mesh architecture will become mature, and prices will decline, also driving adoption.



Figure 2. Priority Matrix for Wireless Networking, 2006

TD-SCDMANext-Generation SatelliteBluetooth Version 2.0

WPA Securitylow

years to mainstream adoptionbenefit

moderate

high

transformational

As of July 2006


802.11n

802.11r

802.16-2004 WiMAX

802.16-2005 WiMAX

IMS


Point-to-Point Wireless Bridges

Unlicensed Mobile Access

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev. A


VoIP WLAN

WCDMA and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System

Wi-Fi 802.11a/b/g

Mesh Networks: SensorHigh-Speed Uplink Packet Access


802.15.4/ZigBee


Mesh Networking

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO

Location-Aware Technology

WMM-Power Save/802.11e U-APSD

WPA2

VoIP WWANNear-Field Communication

Ultrawideband/Wireless USB

more than 10 years5 to 10 years2 to 5 yearsless than 2 years

TD-SCDMANext-Generation SatelliteBluetooth Version 2.0

WPA Securitylow

years to mainstream adoptionbenefit

moderate

high

transformational

As of July 2006


802.11n

802.11r

802.16-2004 WiMAX

802.16-2005 WiMAX

IMS




CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev. A


VoIP WLAN

WCDMA and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System

Wi-Fi 802.11a/b/g

Mesh Networks: SensorHigh-Speed Uplink Packet Access


802.15.4/ZigBee


Mesh Networking

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO

Location-Aware Technology

WMM-Power Save/802.11e U-APSD

WPA2

VoIP WWANNear-Field Communication

Ultrawideband/Wireless USB

more than 10 years5 to 10 years2 to 5 yearsless than 2 years

Source: Gartner (July 2006)

4.0 On the Rise 4.1 VoIP WWAN Definition: Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) wireless wide-area network (WWAN) is the use of IP in the wireless link for "packetized" voice transmission, compared with circuit-switched.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: This technology is still in development.

User Advice: Current high-speed networks support IP voice, but without quality of service (QOS).

Business Impact: This technology affects voice over WWAN.

Market Penetration: Less than 1 percent of target audience

Maturity: Embryonic



Sample Vendors: Most cellular infrastructure vendors

Appears In Hype Cycle:

• “Hype Cycle for Consumer Mobile Applications, 2006”

• “Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking, 2006”

Analysis By: Phillip Redman

4.2 RFID Warehouse Management Systems Definition: Systems that use a combination of bar codes and a substantial number of radio frequency identification (RFID) tags to manage the operation of warehouses and distribution centers.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Many companies have evaluated the use of RFID for distribution centers and have found that bar codes are better economically and are far more mature technically for most distribution center applications. However, we expect that, over a five- to 10-year period, creative applications will be found that might justify the use of RFID in a distribution center as its relative price falls.

User Advice: Evaluate warehouse management workflow every two years to assess the proper blend of voice, bar-coding and RFID communications infrastructure.

Business Impact: These systems enable high-volume warehouses and distribution centers to minimize logistics costs.


Maturity: Embryonic

Sample Vendors: HighJump Software; Manhattan Associates; Oracle; Red Prairie; SAP; Yantra



Analysis By: William Clark

4.3 High-Speed Uplink Packet Access Definition: High-Speed Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA) is part of the specifications for 3GPP Release 6. It improves upstream data bit rates on 3G systems and complements High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA), theoretically up to a maximum 5.8 Mbps uplink data rate at the cell level. Latency will improve further, down to typically 80 ms. The aim is to support symmetrical, up and down, data rates, so that 3G can support applications like videoconferencing. Many of the same techniques used in HSDPA will be used for HSUPA, including adaptive modulation and hybrid automatic repeat request.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Emerging standard for fast data uploads over Universal Mobile Telecommunications System.

User Advice: Still not "mobile broadband," but an incremental improvement on 3G. Do not make tactical choices for wireless data based on technology, but leverage the different competing standards in contract negotiations with operators.

Business Impact: Higher-speed wireless data access for communications.




Maturity: Embryonic

Sample Vendors: Alcatel; Ericsson; Lucent; Nokia; Nortel Networks; Siemens



Analysis By: Sylvain Fabre

4.4 Near-Field Communication Definition: Near-field communication (NFC) is a short-range, wireless, personal-area technology designed to interact with consumer electronics, mobile devices and PCs.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: NFC will be most useful for processing financial transactions as a contactless payment card activated by swiping a device near a receiver terminal. NFC is immature and may experience threats from many other technologies. It is not a competitor to Bluetooth, although it can be used as a token to set up the connection. NFC is similar to radio frequency identification, except that it contains a tag and reader facilitating two-way communication.

User Advice: Monitor the technology, especially in Asian markets. NFC has been used in some mobile payment schemes in other regions and could emerge quickly if critical mass and standards evolve.

Business Impact: NFC will enable contactless interaction between computers.


Maturity: Embryonic



Analysis By: Ken Dulaney

4.5 802.15.4/ZigBee Definition: A global wireless standard for reliable, secure, low-power remote monitoring and control applications. Consumer applications include electronics, home automation, machine-to-machine automation and gaming.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The standard is agreed on, but the development of a large body of compliant products is futuristic. It's unclear whether the standard is broad enough. Several competitive technologies, such as ZWave, have entered the field, making 802.15.4/ZigBee's dominance as a standard questionable.

User Advice: Early adopters can consider Zigbee. Those employing it for closed applications can also consider Zigbee. All others should monitor it for more progress.

Business Impact: Machine-to-machine automation.


Maturity: Emerging






4.6 802.11r Definition: Unapproved standard for fast roaming between cellular and Wi-Fi networks.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: As adoption of voice over wireless LAN (VoWLAN) increases in areas such as retail and healthcare, roaming between different wireless networks becomes important. Proprietary solutions available today are vendor-specific.

User Advice: A standard to watch for, particularly if VoWLAN becomes a major driver of WLAN deployment.

Business Impact: Roaming between cellular and Wi-Fi networks requires device reauthentication and session persistency without compromising the quality-of-service settings of the two types of wireless network. Some industries that use voice over Internet Protocol over WLAN handsets will benefit if this standard is certified.

Market Penetration: One percent to 5 percent of target audience

Maturity: Embryonic

Sample Vendors: Cisco Systems; Motorola



Analysis By: Rachna Ahlawat

4.7 802.11k (Radio Resource Measurement) Definition: A specification from the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. It is designed to standardize and measure Layers 1 and 2 of the Open Systems Interconnection protocol stack and make this data available to the upper layers to help control and adapt wireless LAN networks. By evaluating the quality of connection, better roaming decisions can be made.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Still in early development.

User Advice: Communication between third-generation coordinated access points (APs) and wireless controllers is not based on any standard. Every vendor measures and manages radio resources differently, which is why APs and wireless controllers have to be purchased from the same vendor.

Business Impact: Valuable in performance and radio frequency spectrum-measurement activities.


Maturity: Embryonic

Sample Vendors: Aruba Networks; Cisco Systems; Symbol Technologies






5.0 At the Peak 5.1 802.16-2005 WiMAX Definition: Recently ratified, 802.16-2005 is a mobile version of the 802.16-2004 technology that is just coming to market to support metro area broadband wireless capabilities.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Since 802.16-2005 is a recently ratified standard, certified products won't come on the market until end of 2007. No big service providers have committed to rolling out services in any country yet, though some have joined the WiMAX Forum.

User Advice: Consider using 802.16-2005 for campus-based services and rural areas, but use cellular data for national and international access.

Business Impact: 802.16-2005 is one of the many wireless technologies to offer lower-cost and higher-speed access.


Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: Alvarion; Iospan Wireless; Navini Networks; Redline Communications


• “Hype Cycle for PC Technologies, 2006”

• “Hype Cycle for Telecommunications, 2006”



5.2 CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev. A Definition: CDMA2000 1x Evolution Data Optimized (EV-DO) Rev. A is the successor of the EV-DO Rev. 0 standard. CDMA2000 1x EV-DO increases the peak data downlink speed to 3.1 Mbps and the peak upload speed to 1.8 Mbps, reduces latency, and adds quality of service (QOS) — features that make possible IP-based services, such as voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP), push to talk (PTT) and video telephony. CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev. A will be launched in Asia in 2006 and North America in 2007.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: It is not yet released commercially, but the release is eminent in certain regions. It will benefit service providers' capacity needs more than any user benefits, such as speed.

User Advice: Look for data cards that can be upgraded to this latest version or insist on a low or no-cost upgrade when it becomes available regionally.

Business Impact: It offers higher-speed wireless data access for communications and remote access, primarily with a computing device or smartphone.




Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: Lucent; Motorola; Nortel Networks; Qualcomm




5.3 Unlicensed Mobile Access Definition: Unlicensed mobile access (UMA) provides access to Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) and general packet radio service (GPRS) mobile services over unlicensed spectrum technologies, including Bluetooth and 802.11, typically using a broadband connection to "backhaul" traffic to the service provider. By deploying UMA technology, service providers can enable subscribers to roam and hand over calls between cellular networks and unlicensed wireless networks.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: UMA received initial support by a limited number of service providers; there are still a limited number of devices and handsets with UMA support.

User Advice: Devices and service providers supporting UMA will offer unpredictable quality voice over unlicensed band services such as Wi-Fi "hot spots" or home Wi-Fi networks. UMA is initially targeted for small businesses and consumers.

Business Impact: None


Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: Motorola; Nokia



Analysis By: Leif-Olof Wallin

5.4 IMS Definition: IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) is a standardized, open architecture based on the Session Initiation Protocol (SIP). It defines how applications and services are delivered to customers, regardless of which network they run on. IMS separates session control from the actual applications for maximum flexibility, and can be used for centralized user profiles.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The IMS market is still in the early stages of development, and technical specifications for the architecture are still evolving. There are many competing IMS offerings from vendors, but only a handful of trials and deployments — and these relate to only parts of the full IMS architecture. Mobile operators are pursuing the IMS topology from a home subscriber service (HSS) and application layer perspective, while wireline operators are more interested in getting the cost efficiencies and convergence of provisioning and service delivery mechanisms. The benefit of IMS is still very much overhyped by technology providers. IMS has not yet proven to be key for deploying new, compelling applications; its use will be mostly related to transforming network topologies.



User Advice: Evaluate the benefits of IMS topology deployments vs. VoIP and next-generation architectures. For consistent and competitive service architectures that are access network agnostic, service delivery architectures that can be developed without IMS are needed, but these will most likely be implemented in an IMS environment to begin with. Evaluate alternative architecture approaches to introduce new and advanced services, such as Web-based services.

Business Impact: Network service providers will be able to support differentiated service offerings and call delivery for multimedia services. However, this architecture is not the only way to deploy these services. Network service providers can also collapse various network layers to gain cost savings. Residential and enterprise customers are able to obtain new services via a single terminal and with one authentication point for address book, voice, and multimedia mail and value-added services. Television via IP can also be sent via IMS for residential users, making video network independent.


Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: Alcatel; Ericsson; Huawei Technologies Co.; Lucent Technologies; NEC Japan; Nokia; Nortel Networks; Siemens Communications

Recommended Reading:

• "Embryonic IMS Is Not Yet Key to New, Blended Telecom Services"

• "Fixed-Mobile Convergence Gives Network Vendors an IMS Opening"

• "Incumbent Network Operators Should Invest in Content Distribution to Grow Revenue"

• "IP Multimedia Subsystem Contracts and Deployments, Worldwide, to 2Q06"

• "MarketScope: IP Multimedia Subsystem, 2005"

• "Mobile Operators Need Multiple Paths to All-IP Core Networks"

• "Technical Worries Delay Deployment of IMS Networks in Japan"


• “Hype Cycle for Network Service Provider Infrastructure, 2006”



Analysis By: Jouni Forsman; Bettina Tratz-Ryan

5.5 Ultrawideband/Wireless USB Definition: This is ultrawideband (UWB) technology using 3GHz-to-10GHz frequency bands at extremely low power levels. UWB has many applications, but wireless Universal Serial Bus (USB) will be the prominent application in use within the enterprise computing market. Two viable alternative standards are vying for an early lead — the Cable-Free Alliance, sponsored by Freescale, and Certified Wireless USB, sponsored by Intel and a number of other prominent players.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Demonstrations of ultrawideband are plentiful, with Intel and Motorola, the main backers, each pushing their respective views. Freescale and the



Cable Free Alliance are ahead on product introductions but, long term, the Certified Wireless USB alliance should dominate. Today, most implementations are specialized. We must wait until Intel and its original equipment manufacturers see justification for a USB replacement and peripheral cost justification for inclusion in their respective bills of materials.

User Advice: Users need not monitor this technology until it is included in mainstream computing products for peripheral connection.

Business Impact: The greatest impact will be on high-bandwidth wireless connections for peripherals and home entertainment components.


Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: Intel; Motorola; Texas Instruments




5.6 802.11n Definition: 802.11n is the next-generation wireless LAN standard developed by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). It is expected to deliver up to 600Mbps of theoretical networking performance and increased range. 802.11n provides backward compatibility with 802.11a, b and g standards.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: 802.11n is mired in committee, wrestling with a variety of technology issues. Approval of the standard is not expected until year-end 2007, with a mature product in the market by 2008.

User Advice: We advise organizations to ignore 802.11n until 2008.

Business Impact: 802.11n will provide high-performance networking without wires for buildings, campuses and metropolitan areas.


Maturity: Embryonic

Sample Vendors: Broadcom; Intel




5.7 CAPWAP/LWAPP Definition: Control and Provisioning of Wireless Access Points (CAPWAP)/Lightweight Access Point Protocol (LWAPP) is a standards-based approach for communication between access points (APs) and wireless LAN (WLAN) controllers.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Vendors continue to implement proprietary ways of communicating between the two main WLAN infrastructure components — APs and



controllers. We do not expect the various players to agree on a common protocol or approach for communication between the two. Product development is too far ahead for this to become a standard.

User Advice: Consider the total solution. Using APs and controllers from the same vendor in large deployments makes security and management much easier.

Business Impact: As organizations move from stand-alone AP architecture to centralized architecture, the communication method between the AP and controller decides the overall radio frequency monitoring and network performance.

Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience

Maturity: Obsolete

Sample Vendors: Cisco




6.0 Sliding Into the Trough 6.1 High-Speed Downlink Packet Access Definition: High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) is an enhancement to the Terrestrial Radio Access Network provided by the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS), which is known as UTRAN (UMTS Radio Access Network). It is designed to increase the downlink data rate to a theoretical maximum of 14.4 Mbps at the cell level. Actual performance for end users is much lower and depends on handset capabilities, speed and radio conditions. HSDPA is defined by the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) as part of Release 5 and builds on the core network of all Internet Protocol migrations included in Release 4. Improvements on the Uplink are part of the subsequent release, called High-Speed Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA).

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Adoption by operators is ongoing. From May 2006, 91 percent of operators worldwide using wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA) are committed to an HSDPA upgrade; 22 percent have already launched commercially. Performance expectations raised by vendors — for example, mobile broadband — are not realistic, and total cost of ownership for operators has been underestimated. Commercial offers are still in the early stages. Device availability is growing, but remains limited.

User Advice: Do not expect mobile broadband. While VPN browsing, e-mail is enhanced by HSDPA (mostly due to lower latency, typically 100 to 120 milliseconds, rather than increased data rates). But for initial releases, downlink data rates can drop to 200 Kbps with more than 12 data users in a cell (in urban sites, for example). HSDPA focuses on downlink, while uplink enhancements are only available from HSUPA. Do not make tactical choices based on technology, but leverage the different competing standards in contract negotiations with operators.



Maturity: Emerging



Sample Vendors: Ericsson; Lucent; Motorola; Nokia; Nortel Networks; Siemens


• "Hidden Costs and Performance Issues in HSDPA May Surprise Mobile Operators"




6.2 TD-SCDMA Definition: Time division-synchronous code division multiple access (TD-SCDMA) is China's home-grown third-generation (3G) standard for cellular networks.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: TD-SCDMA is less mature than wideband CDMA and CDMA2000, and has yet to be deployed commercially. Carriers have shown only limited interest in it, as demand and performance are uncertain and there are few compatible handsets. China will adopt it, but only as one of three 3G standards, and only on a limited scale. It will not be deployed internationally in the short term.

User Advice: Companies should avoid deploying applications that rely on TD-SCDMA. They should also avoid buying user devices that incorporate this technology.

Business Impact: Wide-area voice and data communications.


Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: Alcatel; China Putian; Datang; Ericsson; Huawei; Nokia; Siemens; ZTE


• “Hype Cycle for China Emerging Technologies, 2006”


Analysis By: Sandy Shen

6.3 802.16-2004 WiMAX Definition: Originally known as 802.16d, this approved wireless broadband standard uses 2GHz-to-11GHz frequencies, which can penetrate walls and other dense objects. 802.16-2004 provides transmission to stationary devices and replaces the 802.16 and 802.16a specifications.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Some pre-standard equipment is already in commercial use and certified products just entered the market in the first half of 2006.

User Advice: The mobile standard was ratified in 2005, with products to come by 2007 — so unless there is an urgent and immediate need, wait for certified mobile products.

Business Impact: It provides high-speed wireless backhaul and last-mile access.


Maturity: Emerging



Sample Vendors: Alvarion; Iospan Wireless; Navini Networks; Redline Communications


• “Hype Cycle for Networking and Communications, 2006”



6.4 Mesh Networks — Sensor Definition: Ad hoc networks formed by dynamic meshes of peer nodes, each of which includes simple networking, computing and sensing capabilities. Some implementations offer low-power operation and multiyear battery life.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Small to midsize implementations (tens to hundreds of nodes) are now being deployed from several technology providers. This technology is being adopted by Type A companies. Some vendors have moved from proprietary radio protocols to more standard (Zigbee) RF layers. However, the market is still fragmented, with no dominant vendors having emerged, despite interesting moves such as Intel's investment in Zensys. The market potential is enormous (scenarios of several billion installed units are feasible), but the slow adoption rate means it will take many years to get to this point.

User Advice: Technologically aggressive organizations looking for low-cost sensing and robust self-organizing networks with small data transmission volumes should explore sensor networking. The market is still immature and fragmented, and there are few standards, so suppliers will evolve and equipment could become obsolete relatively rapidly (perhaps in less than three years). Therefore, this area should be seen as a tactical investment. Despite the risks, we see some successful early deployments in such areas as building automation and industrial sensing.

Business Impact: Low-cost industrial sensing and networking; low-cost, zero management networking; resilient networking; military sensing; product tagging; and building automation.


Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: Crossbow Technology; Dust networks; Ember; Intel; Millennial Net; Zensys



Analysis By: Nick Jones

6.5 Mesh Networks: Wide Area Definition: Ad hoc networks that are formed by fixed or dynamic meshes of peer nodes, and used to deliver industrial and consumer wireless broadband networking in campus areas or metropolitan areas.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Several significant (if proprietary) broadband meshes have been deployed (for example, in Taipei, Taiwan). Recent announcements also indicate market growth — for example, EarthLink recently obtained approval to provide a Wi-Fi (Wireless Fidelity) network in New Orleans using Tropos mesh equipment. In addition, an Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) proposal labeled "802.11s" is under consideration



to standardize 802.11 mesh networking, but it's still in the early stages and no approved standard seems likely before 2008 to 2009 (if ever).

User Advice: Explore mesh networking if you need to deliver a Wi-Fi network quickly over a large area, such as an industrial plant, campus or town. However, mesh networking is still an evolving technology; early experiences suggest that coverage can be patchy, and the "multihop" nature of mesh networks may result in high latency that could affect performance-critical applications, such as voice over IP. The need for nodes to be relatively close to each other makes this system most appropriate for areas of high user density, such as towns. Also, the technology is likely to be more effective in regions, such as the U.S., that permit higher-powered Wi-Fi access points than other regions, such as Europe.

Mesh Wi-Fi is attractive because of the broad range of Wi-Fi-enabled client devices, such as laptops and mobile handsets. However, in the longer term, cellular data technologies — such as High-Speed Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA) and Long-Term Evolution (LTE) — and wireless broadband technologies (such as WiMax) will compete with mesh Wi-Fi because they're better suited to provide predictable quality of service over large areas.

If the proposed 802.11s standard emerges, it may render much of the proprietary mesh technology obsolete, so organizations deploying it should seek return on investment before 2009. Organizations exploring mesh networks should also consider alternative solutions, such as Wi-Fi access points with high-speed cellular backhaul.

Business Impact: Low-cost, fast-deployment, wireless broadband.


Maturity: Early mainstream

Sample Vendors: LocustWorld; Motorola; Tropos Networks



Analysis By: Nick Jones

6.6 WPA Security Definition: Wi-Fi Protected Access (WPA) is an industry consortium profile/subset of 802.11i that replaces defective Wired Equivalent Privacy security mechanism for wireless local-area networks (WLANs). WPA fails to resolve compatibility problems caused by multiple versions of Extensible Authentication Protocol (EAP).

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: There has been tremendous hype in the press that WPA solves WLAN security problems. WPA and subsequent Wi-Fi Protected Access 2 (WPA2) have created confusion over EAP interoperability. Retesting is required for WPA2 but is not mandatory until the fourth quarter of 2005; this will confuse buyers into 2006. However, certification improves the vendor sales outlook.

User Advice: Enterprises should progress to WPA2 when possible. However, waiting for an all-encompassing solution is much riskier than having separate authentication approaches for devices that do not support WPA2. Previous strong protection methods, including WPA and virtual private network (VPN), should be used until WPA2 is widely available.

Business Impact: Migrating and upgrading to WPA2 will require replacement of older WLAN equipment.




Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: Devicescape Software; Funk Software; Meetinghouse; Microsoft


• “Hype Cycle for Information Security, 2006”


Analysis By: John Girard

6.7 Point-to-Point Wireless Bridges Definition: Wireless bridges used in outdoor applications for WAN/MAN network access and short-span connectivity (typically 0.5 to two miles and up to 10 miles using directional antennas) using Wi-Fi or other wireless technologies in either licensed or unlicensed spectrum.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: A cost-effective alternative to carrier leased-line services, free space optics, microwave or enterprise WiMAX.

User Advice: Good alternative to microwave in rugged terrain or urban areas because it does not require line of sight. Do not overlook the costs of spectrum licensing and management and the need to assess solutions based on unlicensed spectrum.

Business Impact: Lower-cost services and more network capacity.


Maturity: Adolescent

Sample Vendors: 3Com; Cisco Systems; Proxim




Analysis By: William Clark

6.8 Next-Generation Satellite Definition: Megabit and multimegabit next-generation Ka-band satellite services, which incorporates multiple spot beams and frequency reuse technologies, targeted to residential and small and midsize business markets underserved by wired infrastructure or alternative wireless broadband access modalities. Many new satellite services now support IP-based transmissions and applications.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Ka-band satellite services were more widely available in North America and Asia/Pacific with the launch of WildBlue in the United States, Telesat in Canada, and IPStar by Shin Satellite in many countries in Asia/Pacific. Satellite-based connectivity is still a niche player in the total access market. However, the ability to support IP-based services, virtual private networks, higher speeds and more competitive pricing, and service provider alliances and reseller agreements with carriers such as AT&T all contribute to the improved future prospects for next-generation satellite network services. Many companies are



also increasing use of satellite technologies for path diversity in support of business continuity planning in case of disasters. Next-generation satellite will start to compete against growing WiMAX deployments in regions lacking terrestrial networks. But it could also be used to backhaul WiMAX traffic.

User Advice: For users in areas that still lack robust cable, DSL or fiber-based access, this new generation of satellite services now offers more capabilities at prices that are nearly competitive with terrestrial alternatives. The exception is the equipment costs. Enterprises may want to look again at this option for workers that are truly remote, as well as for branch offices for insurance, healthcare, financial, manufacturing or other industries.

Business Impact: Lower cost, higher bandwidth and wider applications support. Next-generation satellite service providers will be increasingly allied with larger carriers such as AT&T and Verizon in wholesale agreements to offer solutions as part of total service options for business continuity, or as fill-in access modality offerings.



Sample Vendors: AT&T; IPStar; Telesat Canada; WildBlue




Analysis By: Patti Reali

6.9 VoIP WLAN Definition: Voice over wireless LAN is standards and technology to deliver voice calls and other audio over a wireless IP framework over a wireless LAN.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Voice over wireless LAN is receiving increased support from wireless LAN and cellular handset vendors, standards have been ratified, and the technology is being integrated into a growing number of IP PBX implementations.

User Advice: Voice over wireless LAN addresses the need for local mobility and voice communications. There are additional operating and capital costs for supporting voice, so idea of "free" service is not valid.

Business Impact: Voice over wireless LAN would be used by those companies with a local, mobile voice need. It works well as a replacement for expensive private mobile radio systems and is being adopted primarily in the healthcare, retail, education and manufacturing industries.


Maturity: Emerging

Sample Vendors: Most Wi-Fi vendors







6.10 CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Definition: Also known as 1x evolution data only (EV-DO) Rev. 0, this 3G evolution of the CDMA2000 1x radio transmission technology (RTT) adds additional voice capacity and peak data downlink rates of up to 2.4 Mbps (400 to 700 Kbps in practice). EV-DO is backward-compatible with cdmaOne and 1xRTT services, and many code division multiple access (CDMA) operators are upgrading to EV-DO in metropolitan areas.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Though in commercial service since 2005, CDMA2000 1xEV-DO does not yet offer ubiquitous coverage as compared with digital voice networking, covering approximately 50 percent to 65 percent of the voice network, depending on the vendor. Also, because few phones are available, this technology is used mainly by cellular data cards in a notebook computer.

User Advice: CDMA2000 1xEV-DO is good for use for power users and road warriors to replace most public Wi-Fi "hot spot" usage; however, uplink speeds are still slow by comparison.

Business Impact: CDMA2000 1xEV-DO supplies higher-speed wireless data access for communications and remote access.



Sample Vendors: Lucent Technologies; Nortel Networks; Qualcomm; Sierra Wireless; Sprint Nextel; Verizon





6.11 Location-Aware Technology Definition: Location-aware technology is the use of GPS, assisted GPS (A-GPS), Enhanced Observed Time Difference (EOTD), enhanced GPS (E-GPS), and other technologies in the cellular network and handset to locate a mobile user.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The market is still fragmented, but we see some emerging trends. On high-accuracy location, two technologies are emerging: on one side, A-GPS (from Qualcomm's SnapTrack) has become a reference technology with successful deployments by code division multiple access (CDMA) network operators in the North American and Asia/Pacific regions; on the other side, there is Cambridge Positioning System's technology E-GPS for GSM and wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA) networks where enhanced observed time difference (EOTD) and GPS capabilities are used to achieve high accuracy, both indoor and outdoor. E-GPS is younger than GPS but may see uptake in the next 18 months as adoption starts in Europe. GPS receivers are also emerging as key enablers to access navigation and other location-based services, both as external receivers or embedded capabilities in the mobile device. Finally, high-accuracy location technologies for wireless local-area networks (WLANs), such as those from Ekahau, are emerging to enable location services within limited areas, such as "hot spots."



User Advice: Users should evaluate the potential benefits to their business processes of location-enabled products such as personal navigation devices (for example, TomTom or Garmin) or Bluetooth-enabled GPS receivers, as well as WLAN location equipment that may help automate complex processes, such as logistics and maintenance. U.S.-based and Asia/Pacific-based users should carefully monitor the availability of high-accuracy services and products offered by mobile operators in their regions because these could represent viable tools to support the mobile workforce as well as end-user customers in a business-to-consumer (B2C) model.

Business Impact: Whereas the market sees consolidation around a reduced number of high-accuracy technologies, the location service ecosystem will benefit from a number of standardized application interfaces to deploy location services and applications for a wide range of wireless devices.



Sample Vendors: Cambridge Positioning Systems; CellPoint; Polaris Wireless; SiRF Technology; SnapTrack; TruePosition


• "Advantages and Disadvantages in a Location-Aware Society"

• "Tracking People, Products and Assets in Real Time"


• “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2006”


Analysis By: Monica Basso

6.12 WCDMA and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System Definition: Part of the International Mobile Telecommunications-2000 specification, it is the later stages of 3G technology (3GPP Release 99) that offers higher voice capacity and data speeds of 384 Kbps and 2 MB (theoretically) in a fixed service. Considered an upgrade to GSM technology.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Delayed launches have meant adoption is slower than anticipated. Customer uptake is still very limited, despite 105 commercial networks as of May 2006. Adoption by consumers and enterprises is driven more by handset subsidy and service pricing, rather than wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA) and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) capabilities.

User Advice: Ascertain whether use and applications requirements really justify a UMTS tariff plan; consider how handsets fit into overall plan; look at WCDMA as a voice capacity enhancement and a building block for higher data rates like High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA).

Business Impact: For UMTS, it is more about voice capacity rather than data, but it is an important building block.





Sample Vendors: Alcatel; Ericsson; Huawei; Motorola; Nokia; Nortel Networks; Siemens




6.13 WMM Power Save/802.11e U-APSD Definition: A component of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 802.11e standard that will provide quality of service capability for voice, video and other isochronous communications. Unscheduled Automatic Power Save Delivery (U-APSD) provides a straightforward packet prioritization scheme to improve the handling of streaming transmissions over a wireless LAN. It will be delivered to the market under the Wi-Fi Alliance's certification banner Wi-Fi Multimedia (WMM) Power Save.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The standard and its certification are market-ready, and most products will move toward adoption during the next year.

User Advice: WMM Power Save should be a requirement.

Business Impact: Quality of service for video and voice applications.



Sample Vendors: Alcatel; Cisco Systems; Nortel Networks




6.14 Mesh Networking Definition: Mesh networking technology employs wireless backhaul across a dynamic set of transmission paths to overcome the lack of wired backhaul. The combination of transmission paths forms a mesh.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Mesh networking is most prominently used with Wi-Fi in metropolitan and campus networking applications. Most vendor products are robust but do not follow any standards. Although IEEE 802.11s has been proposed for mesh networking, the likelihood of this standard becoming meaningful is low. Mesh networking has also been contemplated for Zigbee machine-to-machine and sensor networks. Other wireless technologies may employ mesh capability as needed, but Wi-Fi remains the primary radio technology deployed today.

User Advice: Mesh networks can be used to network metropolitan, campus and other areas where wireless backhaul is not available.

Business Impact: The greatest impact will be seen in the expansion of broadband to areas not served by wire.





Sample Vendors: Cisco; Motorola; Tropos Networks




7.0 Climbing the Slope 7.1 Enhanced Data for Global Evolution Definition: Part of the set of standards laid down by the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), and based on Global System for Mobile Communications(GSM) and shared media packet data. Enhanced Data for Global Evolution (EDGE) uses a different and more efficient modulation scheme than the Gaussian minimum shift keying technique used over the radio interface by GSM and general packet radio service (GPRS). The enhanced eight-phase shift key (8-PSK) modulation technique opens up more bandwidth per radio carrier or cell. EDGE supports peak data rates of up to 384 Kbps per cell, assuming that all eight radio channels (time slots) are used and that one of the time slots is not reserved for signaling. As with GPRS, the bandwidth is shared by all concurrent users operating within the same cell. EDGE requires higher radio signal quality than that found in an average GSM network before higher data throughput speeds can be reached. EDGE Phase 2 — part of 3GPP Release 7 — is a further development of EDGE intended to double data rates, provide better spectrum efficiency and capacity, and offer reduced latency.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: From May 2006, there will be 204 networks in 113 countries deploying combined GSM/EDGE, with 151 commercial networks in 88 countries; and 67 operators running or rolling out combined EDGE/WCDMA networks. EDGE roaming is handled by existing GPRS agreements.

User Advice: Consider EDGE as a complement for HSxPA technologies outside "hot spot" coverage.




Sample Vendors: Alcatel; Ericsson; Lucent; Nokia; Nortel Networks; Siemens




8.0 Entering the Plateau 8.1 Bluetooth Version 2.0 Definition: Bluetooth is a wireless personal area networking technology that operates at 2.4GHz, using frequency-hopping spread spectrum. Bluetooth offers several application profiles — the most popular is headsets for mobile phones. Version 2.0 replaced v.1.1 and added adaptive hopping as its most prominent feature.



Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Bluetooth is pervasive in mobile phones. Its success has been narrow, mainly in simplistic set-up profiles, such as headsets; however, it's moving to stereo headset applications, and will appear in portable media players. It is also appearing in Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers integrated into the GPS chip. It appears in many notebook computers, but usage is poor because of the complexity of operation. Bluetooth suffers from inconsistent implementation across vendors and the lack of an independent certification body. Its next technical iteration will be in ultrawideband; however, this migration will not mature for at least five years.

User Advice: Bluetooth deployments should require Version 2.0. Best uses will be for specific implementations, such as headsets, where the vendors of the connected devices have certified each other's devices for interoperability.

Business Impact: Personal area networking.


Maturity: Mature mainstream

Sample Vendors: Motorola; Nokia


• “Hype Cycle for PC Technologies, 2006”



8.2 WPA2 Definition: Wi-Fi Protected Access 2 (WPA2) is the approved interoperable implementation of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 802.11i standard from the Wi-Fi Alliance. It provides Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) for encryption and 802.1x for authentication. WPA2 is backward-compatible with WPA.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: A Wi-Fi-certified standard that is rolling out for various products, the WPA2 test bed now includes five Extensible Authentication Protocol types to support different authentication protocols. The Wi-Fi Alliance has made WPA2 security certification mandatory for all new Wi-Fi-certified products.

User Advice: Organizations should deploy WPA2-certified wireless LAN (WLAN) infrastructure components (access points and controllers). Not many wireless handheld devices support WPA2, but vendors are moving in that direction. While WLAN access points and controllers support AES, most devices are WPA2 complaint — they have AES hardware but not AES drivers.

Business Impact: Secures wireless links.



Sample Vendors: Aruba Networks; Cisco Systems; Symbol Technologies; WLAN vendors






8.3 Wi-Fi 802.11a/b/g Definition: Access infrastructure that supports 802.11a and 802.11g standards.

Position and Adoption Speed Justification: 802.11a/b/g technologies are widely available and mature. 802.11a should see wider availability in coming years.

User Advice: Purchase Wi-Fi infrastructure (access points) that support 802.11a/g. Move notebook traffic to 802.11a and other devices to 802.11g.



Maturity: Mature mainstream

Sample Vendors: Aruba Networks; Cisco Systems; Symbol Technologies; WLAN vendors


• “Hype Cycle for PC Technologies, 2006; Hype Cycle for Government, 2006”




9.0 Off the Hype Cycle A number of maturing technologies and standards are off the Hype Cycle this year in the PAN and LAN areas, including 802.11b, 802.11a, Bluetooth Cable Replacement, Wi-Fi Protected Access and 802.11i/WPA2.



10.0 Appendices 10.1 Appendix A: Previous Iteration of the Hype Cycle

Figure 3. For Reference: Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking, 2005



Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



maturity

visibility

Plateau will be reached in:less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years


High-Speed Downlink Packet

Access

802.11k

4G Standard

802.11r

As of June 2005

Wi-Fi Protected Access

Wi-Fi 802.11a/g

Bluetooth Cable Replacement

802.11i/WPA2


WCDMA/UMTSLocation-Aware Technology

RFID Warehouse Management

Systems

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO

Next-GenerationSatellite


Mesh Networks —Wide Area

802.11e/WME

Mesh Networks — Sensor

802.16 2004 WiMAX

802.15.3a/ Ultrawideband

IP Multimedia Subsystem802.11e/WSM


802.15.4 ZigBee

CDMA2000 1x EV-DO Rel. A

802.11n (Next-Generation WLAN)

802.16e WIMAX

High-Speed Uplink Packet

Access

Mobile Centrex

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



maturity

visibility

maturity

visibility





High-Speed Downlink Packet

Access

802.11k

4G Standard

802.11r

As of June 2005

Wi-Fi Protected Access

Wi-Fi 802.11a/g

Bluetooth Cable Replacement

802.11i/WPA2


WCDMA/UMTSLocation-Aware Technology

RFID Warehouse Management

Systems

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO

Next-GenerationSatellite


Mesh Networks —Wide Area

802.11e/WME

Mesh Networks — Sensor

802.16 2004 WiMAX

802.15.3a/ Ultrawideband

IP Multimedia Subsystem802.11e/WSM


802.15.4 ZigBee

CDMA2000 1x EV-DO Rel. A

802.11n (Next-Generation WLAN)

802.16e WIMAX

High-Speed Uplink Packet

Access

Mobile Centrex

Source: Gartner (June 2005)



10.2 Appendix B: Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels

Table 1. Hype Cycle Phases

Phase Definition

Technology Trigger A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event generates significant press and industry interest.

Peak of Inflated Expectations

During this phase of overenthusiasm and unrealistic projections, a flurry of well-publicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes, but more failures, as the technology is pushed to its limits. The only enterprises making money are conference organizers and magazine publishers.

Trough of Disillusionment Because the technology does not live up to its overinflated expectations, it rapidly becomes unfashionable. Media interest wanes, except for a few cautionary tales.

Slope of Enlightenment Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse range of organizations lead to a true understanding of the technology's applicability, risks and benefits. Commercial, off-the-shelf methodologies and tools ease the development process.

Plateau of Productivity The real-world benefits of the technology are demonstrated and accepted. Tools and methodologies are increasingly stable as they enter their second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market. Approximately 20 percent of the technology's target audience has adopted or is adopting the technology as it enters the Plateau.

Years to Mainstream Adoption

The time required for the technology to reach the Plateau of Productivity.


Table 2. Benefit Ratings

Benefit Rating Definition

Transformational Enables new ways of doing business across industries that will result in major shifts in industry dynamics

High Enables new ways of performing horizontal or vertical processes that will result in significantly increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise

Moderate Provides incremental improvements to established processes that will result in increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise

Low Slightly improves processes (for example, improved user experience) that will be difficult to translate into increased revenue or cost savings


Table 3. Maturity Levels

Maturity Level Status Products/Vendors

Embryonic In labs None

Emerging Commercialization by vendors Pilots and deployments by industry leaders

First generation High price Much customization



Maturity Level Status Products/Vendors

Adolescent Maturing technology capabilities and process understanding Uptake beyond early adopters

Second generation Less customization

Early mainstream Proven technology Vendors, technology and adoption rapidly evolving

Third generation More out of box Methodologies

Mature mainstream Robust technology Not much evolution in vendors or technology

Several dominant vendors

Legacy Not appropriate for new developments Cost of migration constrains replacement

Maintenance revenue focus

Obsolete Rarely used Used/resale market only Source: Gartner (June 2006)

RECOMMENDED READING

"Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles, 2006"

This research is part of a set of related research pieces. See "Gartner's Hype Cycle Special Report for 2006" for an overview.



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Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking, 2006