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Yuba River Development Project FERC Project 2246 Relicensing. Hydrology Presentation. Thursday, November 10, 2010. Meeting Agenda. Introductions Previous Meetings Updated Hydrology Project Operations. Previous Meetings. 3/15/2011 – Conference Call Presented hydrology approach - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Hydrology Presentation
Yuba River Development ProjectFERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Thursday, November 10, 2010
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Meeting Agenda
Introductions Previous Meetings Updated Hydrology Project Operations
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Previous Meetings 3/15/2011 – Conference Call
Presented hydrology approach Focus of discussion on accretions Action items:
Investigate sources of difference between area-weighted and mass balance methods Investigate more robust calculations of accretion flow
4/28/2011 Presented revised hydrology with precipitation adjustment to area weighted method Showed how gage error could be used to explain difference between synthetic and mass-balance
computed flows Concerns remained about differences between synthetic and mass-balance computed flows
5/15/2011 – Conference Call Presented potential gaging error at Colgate and Smartsville as explanation for differences between
synthetic and mass-balance flows. YCWA indicated concerns about YB/DS unimpaired flows Action Items:
YCWA to continue to evaluate potential sources of gaging error YCWA to revisit analysis of unimpaired flow (hold discussions with R. Jones)
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
BackgroundYRDP Relicensing uses a mix of historical gaged flows and synthetic accretions.
NBB accretion inflow is 33% of total NBB Inflow
Englebright accretion inflow is 35% of totalEnglebright inflow (excluding NBB inflow)
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Background
Accretions are synthesized according to the formula:Flow1 = (Area1/Area2) * (Precip1/Precip2) * Flow2
New Bullards Bar Reservoir accretions use both Oregon Creek and North Yuba near Goodyears Bar as index flows (Flow2)
Englebright Reservoir accretions use Oregon Creek as index flow
Precipitation based on PRISM 30-year annual average
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Area-Weighted Method Compared to Mass-Balance Method
Mass-Balance Method inherently must use downstream gage flow (Colgate or Smartsville) minus upstream gage flow in the calculation Both Colgate gage and Smartsville gage are measuring
about 3 times the flow volume that we are trying to synthesize.
Colgate gage + NBB storage change - upstream gages Therefore, a X% deviation in gage measurement results in an 3X%
deviation in computed accretion flow A “good” USGS gage rating has an assumed measurement
deviation of about 5% Therefore for our use a “good” gage rating could result in a 15%
deviation in accretion flow volume
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Comparison of New Bullards Bar Reservoir Accretion Calculation Methodologies
10/1
/99
3/31
/00
9/29
/00
3/30
/01
9/28
/01
3/29
/02
9/27
/02
3/28
/03
9/26
/03
3/26
/04
9/24
/04
3/25
/05
9/23
/05
3/24
/06
9/22
/06
3/23
/07
9/21
/07
3/21
/08
9/19
/08
3/20
/09
9/18
/09
3/19
/10
9/17
/10
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,0008,5009,0009,500
10,000Mass-Balance Timeseries Area-Weighted Flow Timeseries
Flow
(cfs
)
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Examination of NBB Mass BalanceDifferences between mass balance and synthesized flow are explainable by potential variations in gage data:
Colgate PH gage variations 1% 1971-1980 5% 1981-1994 6% 1995-2002 2% 2003-2010
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,00014,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000Original Comparison
Mass Balance-Based Accretion Accumulated Volume (AF)
Area
-Wei
ghte
d Fl
ow A
ccum
u-la
ted
Volu
me
(AF)
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000Revised Comparison
Mass Balance-Based Accretion Accumulated Volume (AF)
Area
-Wei
ghte
d Fl
ow A
ccum
ulat
ed
Volu
me
(AF)
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Correction of Colgate Gage Error
Study by Frank Lynch (formerly of PG&E) of acoustic doppler gages on Colgate penstocks.
Identified installation error affecting 10/2007-5/2011 Revised flows included in mass-balance comparison Corrected data submitted to USGS and incorporated in relicensing data
10/1/07 2/28/08 7/27/08 12/24/08 5/23/09 10/20/09 3/19/10 8/16/100
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Revised Colgate FlowsOriginal Colgate Flows
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Comparison of Englebright Reservoir Accretion Calculation Methodologies
10/1
/99
3/31
/00
9/29
/00
3/30
/01
9/28
/01
3/29
/02
9/27
/02
3/28
/03
9/26
/03
3/26
/04
9/24
/04
3/25
/05
9/23
/05
3/24
/06
9/22
/06
3/23
/07
9/21
/07
3/21
/08
9/19
/08
3/20
/09
9/18
/09
3/19
/10
9/17
/10
-500
-250
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000Mass-Balance Timeseries Area-Weighted Flow Timeseries
Flow
(cfs
)
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Examination of Englebright Mass Balance
Looked at effect of potential gage variations at:Colgate gage- as described for NBBSmartsville gage- 6% 1971-1977 8% 1978-1982 8% 1993-1994 2% 1995-2010 No Oregon Creek
data for 1996
01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,000 Revised Comparison
Mass Balance-Based Accretion Accumulated Volume (AF)
Area
-Wei
ghte
d Fl
ow A
ccum
u-la
ted
Volu
me
(AF)
01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,000
Original Comparison
Mass Balance-Based Accretion Accumulated Volume (AF)
Area
-Wei
ghte
d Fl
ow A
ccum
ulat
ed
Volu
me
(AF)
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Middle and South Yuba River Unimpaired Flows
Disclaimer: YRDP unimpaired flows were originally included on PIP Hydrology CD. Unimpaired flows are not a part of hydrologic alteration or operations modeling
Background: YB/DS published unimpaired flows at Jones Bar and Our House Dam as part
of their Hydrology CD. Comparison of those unimpaired flows with simulated unimpaired flows at
Milton Diversion Dam, below Bowman Reservoir, and at Langs Crossing indicated an inconsistency in the downstream flow calculation
YCWA elected to compute accretions independently
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Unimpaired Middle Yuba River at Our House Dam
Uses unimpaired flow below Milton Diversion Dam from YB/DS
Synthesizes accretions between Milton DD and Our House Dam based on area-weighted precipitation adjusted flow method previously described, using Oregon Creek as the index watershed.
Double checked against available gaged accretions (10/1/1987-9/30/2007) R2 = 0.87
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Unimpaired South Yuba River at Jones Bar
Uses unimpaired flow at Langs Crossing and below Bowman Reservoir from YB/DS
Computes accretions directly from USGS gages at Langs Crossing, below Bowman Reservoir, and at Jones Bar for full period of record.
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Accumulated Unimpaired Flow at Smartsville
Computed unimpaired Yuba River flow at Smartsville by adding: Gaged North Yuba River flow at Goodyears Bar Computed unimpaired Middle Yuba River at Our House Dam Computed unimpaired South Yuba River at Jones Bar Synthesized YRDP accretions above Englebright Dam
Compared to DWR published Full Natural Flow for the Yuba River at Smartsville (CDEC YRS) for 1976-2008
LocationAverage Monthly Flow (cfs) Total
(TAF)Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Computed Unimpaired Flow 430 1,286 3,067 4,520 5,311 6,027 5,940 6,452 3,195 910 354 307 2,274
DWR Full Natural Flow 479 1,470 3,236 4,672 5,537 5,984 5,640 6,123 2,997 907 329 304 2,266
Difference-49
-10%
-184
-13%
-169
-5%
-152
-3%
-226
-4%
43
1%
300
5%
239
4%
198
7%
3
0%
25
8%
3
1%
8
0.4%
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Accumulated Unimpaired Flow at Smartsville
0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,0000
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
DWR Published Full Natural Flow at Smartsville (AF)
Synt
hesi
zed
Unim
paire
d Fl
ow a
t Sm
arts
ville
(AF)
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Closer Look at Monthly Timeseries for Unimpaired Flow at Smartsville
05/07/90 01/12/91 09/19/91 05/26/92 01/31/93 10/08/93 06/15/94 02/20/95 10/28/95 07/04/96 03/11/97 11/16/97 07/24/980
5,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,00055,00060,00065,00070,00075,00080,00085,00090,00095,000
100,000
DWR FNF Synthetic Unimpaired
Flow
(cfs
)
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Now on to Project Operations
Overview of Yuba River facilities to be included in YRDP operations simulation Slate Creek Diversion Dam (SFWP facility) Our House Dam and Lohman Ridge Tunnel Log Cabin Dam and Camptonville Tunnel New Bullards Bar Dam and Colgate Powerhouse Englebright Dam (USACE facility), Narrows 1 Powerhouse
(PG&E facility), and Narrows 2 Powerhouse Daguerre Point Dam (USACE facility)
YRDP operational drivers
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Yuba River Development Project Operations Model Coverage
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Slate Creek Diversion Dam
On Slate Creek (RM 8.8) Owned and operated by SFWP Not actively operated through
most of the year Minimum flow below dam
Currently 10 cfs Varies monthly from 10-49 cfs
under new license Diverts to Slate Creek Tunnel
600 cfs capacity
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Slate Creek Diversion Dam
Typically minimal active operation: Only make changes when required by water right or FERC
requirements Two potential modes of simulated operation:
Use historical flows from gage below dam (USGS 11413300)
Compute inflows based on gage below dam and gage on tunnel (USGS 11413250) Re-operate facility according to water rights and Slate Creek
flow requirements Ignore SFWP operations
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Our House Dam On Middle Yuba River (RM 12.3) Minimum flow below dam:
Varies monthly from 30-50 cfs Releases made through a 24
inch dia. low-level outlet at base of dam (60 cfs capacity)
Diverts to Lohman Ridge Tunnel 850 cfs capacity Tunnel intake consists of a weir
with a trashrack
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Our House Dam
Minimal active operation Set low-level outlet according to downstream flow
requirement Flow above minimum flow requirement plus a buffer flows
into Lohman Ridge Tunnel Once Lohman Ridge Tunnel capacity is filled, remaining
Middle Yuba River flows spill over Our House Dam
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Log Cabin Dam On Oregon Creek (RM 4.2) Around 100 feet below Lohman
Ridge Tunnel outfall Minimum flow below dam:
Varies monthly from 8-12 cfs Releases made through a 18
inch dia. low-level outlet (13 cfs capacity)
Diverts to Camptonville Tunnel 1,100 cfs capacity Tunnel intake consists of a
weir and a trashrack Diverts flow into New Bullards
Bar Reservoir
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Log Cabin Dam
Similar operations as Our House Dam Low level outlet is set to meet downstream flow
requirement Flows above minimum flow into Camptonville Tunnel Flows above Camptonville Tunnel capacity spill over Log
Cabin Dam to Oregon Creek
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
New Bullards Bar Dam and Reservoir
On North Yuba River 966,000 acre-foot storage capacity Up to 170,000 acre-feet of flood
control reservation Receives diversions from
Camptonville Tunnel Releases through:
Colgate Penstock (3,430 cfs capacity)
Low-level outlet (1,200 cfs limit) Fish Hydro (6 cfs capacity Spillway (167,000 cfs capacity)
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Colgate Powerhouse
On Yuba River (RM 33.5) 5.8 miles below Middle Yuba
River Approx 1 mile above
Englebright Reservoir normal maximum water surface
Twin pelton wheel turbines 340 MW capacity
(FERC nameplate is 315 MW)
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
New Bullards Bar Dam and Reservoir and Colgate Powerhouse
Complex operations: Flood management – Flood control reservation + downstream
objective flows Yuba River Accord – Lower Yuba River flow requirements PG&E Power Purchase Agreement – Cooperatively manage
reservoir storage and releases to provide power value Target Storage operations (to be discussed) FERC Requirements – Minimum flows on Middle Yuba, Oregon
Creek, North Yuba River, and Lower Yuba River. Also ramping rates
Agricultural deliveries from diversions near Daguerre Point Dam Water supply carryover storage targets
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Englebright Dam and Reservoir USACE facility
Sediment management Approximately 70 TAF of storage
Approximately 8,500 AF of storage currently exercised
Approximately 1.8 MAF of annual releases (WY 1970-2010)
Releases through Narrows 1 and 2 Powerhouses Narrows 1 (PG&E): 720 cfs
capacity Narrows 2 (YCWA) 3,400 cfs
capacity Narrows 2 bypass (YCWA)
3,000 cfs capacity Spill over dam crest
181,000 cfs capacity
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Englebright Dam and Reservoir
Ensures relatively stable flows to Lower Yuba River Elevations fluctuated to capture variability in Colgate Powerhouse
releases Releases to meet Lower Yuba River flow objectives
Flow requirements at Marysville and Smartsville Agricultural deliveries from diversions near Daguerre Point Dam
Captures “freshets” from Middle and South Yuba rivers New Bullards Bar Reservoir will reduce releases in anticipation of small
storm events, creating space in Englebright. Englebright storage exercised to manage small storm events through
Narrows powerhouses High volume of recreation usage
Minimum operational levels to protect marina operators
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Daguerre Point Dam
USACE facility Debris management
No operable storage Provides for gravity diversion
for YCWA irrigation system
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Daguerre Point Dam No operational capability Site of diversions for agricultural deliveries north and south of the Yuba
River BVID’s Pumpline Diversion (.9 miles upstream) Hallwood-Cordua Canal YCWA Main Canal or South Canal
Approximately 116,000 acres currently irrigated from the Yuba River Total build-out of approximately 120,000 acres
Approximate annual demands: 310 TAF in wet years (331 TAF future) 325 TAF in dry years (346 TAF future)
Annual contracts and water rights for 386 TAF No historical shortages
Previous analyses imposed shortages to ensure sufficient storage to make minimal deliveries in following years assuming extreme drought conditions
Yuba River Development Project (YRDP) – FERC Project 2246 Relicensing
Next Steps
December: Meeting to discuss agricultural demands and detailed operations of New Bullards Bar and Englebright reservoirs
February-March: Meeting for initial release of operations model