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IAHS Publication 363 ISSN 0144-7815
Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions
Editor-in-Chief Trevor Daniell Co-editors Henny A.J. van Lanen, Siegfried Demuth, Gregor Laaha, Eric Servat, Gil Mahe, Jean-François Boyer, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Alain Dezetter & Denis Ruelland
International Association of Hydrological Sciences
Association Internationale des Sciences Hydrologiques
IAHS Publication 363 ISSN 0144-7815
www.iahs.info
Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions
Recent IAHS Publications
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Floods: From Risk to Opportunity Edited by A. Chavoshian & K. Takeuchi Co-edited by X. Cheng, E. Plate, S. Simonovic, S. Uhlenbrook & N. Wright A paradigm shift from focusing on emergency response and recovery to flood risk management is required to build the capacity necessary to cope with floods. The process should be supported by vulnerability monitoring and development of tools such as standard measures of risk and prepared-ness in an integrated approach to improve capacity to deal with floods, taking advantage of their benefits while minimizing their social, economic and environmental risks. The papers, selected from ICFM5, cover flood risk management, disaster management, forecasting and early warning, and management in different regions. Publ. 357 2013 978-1-907161-35-3 470 + x pp. £96
BENCHMARK PAPERS IN HYDROLOGY The IAHS Series that collects together, by theme in stand-alone volumes, the papers that provided the scientific foundations for hydrology.
HYDRO-GEOMORPHOLOGY, EROSION AND SEDIMENTATION Michael J. Kirkby Provides a systematic analysis of the relationships between hydrology and geomorphology, with commentaries on the papers that have been most influential in developments at the hydrology–geomorphology interface.
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ISOTOPE HYDROLOGY
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Order online at http://www.iahs.info/Publications-News.do
(In USA/Canada, books are also available from Amazon.com) Or send book orders and enquiries to: [email protected] IAHS Press, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK fax: + 44 1491 692448/692424
Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions
Editor in Chief: TREVOR M. DANIELL School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Australia
Co-Editors: HENNY A. J. VAN LANEN, SIEGFRIED DEMUTH, GREGOR LAAHA ERIC SERVAT, GIL MAHE, JEAN-FRANÇOIS BOYER, JEAN-EMMANUEL PATUREL, ALAIN DEZETTER & DENIS RUELLAND Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014, Montpellier, France, October 2014 IAHS Publication 363 in the IAHS Series of Proceedings and Reports
Published by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 2014
IAHS Publication 363 ISBN 978-1-907161-41-4
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
© IAHS Press 2014 This publication may be reproduced as hard copy, in whole or in part, for educational or nonprofit use, without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. No part of this publication may be electronically reproduced, transmitted or stored in a retrieval system, and no use of this publication may be made for electronic publishing, resale or other commercial purposes without specific written permission from IAHS Press.
The papers included in this volume have been reviewed and some were extensively revised by the Editors, in collaboration with the authors, prior to publication.
IAHS is indebted to the employers of the Editors for the invaluable support and services provided that enabled them to carry out their task effectively and efficiently.
The information, data and formulae provided in this volume are reproduced by IAHS Press in good faith and as finally checked by the author(s); IAHS Press does not guarantee their accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a given purpose. The reader is responsible for taking appropriate professional advice on any hydrological project and IAHS Press does not accept responsibility for the reader’s use of the content of this volume. To the fullest extent permitted by the applicable law, IAHS Press shall not be liable for any damages arising out of the use of, or inability to use, the content.
The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IAHS concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
The use of trade, firm, or corporate names in the publication is for the information and convenience of the reader. Such use does not constitute an official endorsement or approval by IAHS of any product or service to the exclusion of others that may be suitable.
Publications in the series of Proceedings and Reports are available from: IAHS Press, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK tel.: +44 1491 692442; fax: +44 1491 692448; e-mail: [email protected] Printed by Berforts Information Press
Cover image: Moroccan landscape (photograph by Eric Servat).
CContents
Preface by Trevor M. Daniell v
Over 25 years of FRIEND-Water: an overview Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Siegfried Demuth, Trevor Daniell, David M. Hannah, Gregor Laaha, Gil Mahé & Lena M. Tallaksen
1
1 Trends in hydrological regimes and extremes
Regional assessment of low flow processes and prediction methods across European regimes Gregor Laaha, Anne F. van Loon, Claire Lang Delus & Daniel Koffler
11
Progressive aridity impact on the hydrological regime in the Volta River basin in Benin (West Africa) Henri S. V. Totin, Arnaud Zannou, Ernest Amoussou, Abel Afouda& Michel Boko
17
Multi-annual droughts in the water-stressed English Lowlands: long-term variability and climate drivers Jamie Hannaford, Chris K. Folland, Mike C. Kendon, & John P. Bloomfield
23
Synthesizing changes in low flows from observations and models across scales Kerstin Stahl, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jamie Hannaford, Christel Prudhomme, Gregor Laaha & Lena M. Tallaksen
30
Understanding and adapting to flood risk in a variable and changing climate Anthony S. Kiem
36
Trends in floods in small Norwegian catchments – instantaneous vs daily peaks Donna Wilson, Hege Hisdal & Deborah Lawrence
42
Climate change impact on flood generation process Biljana Radojevic, Pascal Breil & Dejan Dimkic
48
Flood duration frequency analysis in a changing climate: the methodology applied to Fengle River (Yangtze basin, China) C. Salles, Y. Chu, J. L. Perrin, M. G. Tournoud, L. Boudet, F. N. Cres, C. Rodier, S. Zheng, L. Huang & Y. Ma
54
Future low flows and hydrological drought: how certain are these for Europe? Marcel A. A. Alderlieste, Henny A. J. Van Lanen & Niko Wanders
60
Do large-scale models capture reported drought events? Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Adriaan J. Teuling & Remko Uijlenhoet
66
Analyse des périodes sèches dans le bassin d’Ichkeul (Tunisie) à partir de données journalières de pluviométrie / Analysis of dry spells in the Ichkeul basin (Tunisia) using daily rainfall data Majid Mathlouthi & Fethi Lebdi
72
viii
Changes of drought characteristics in small Czech and Slovakian catchments projected by the CMIP5 GCM ensemble Martin Hanel, Adam Vizina,
Miriam Fendeková
78
Impact of land-use change on the hydrology of North Lao PDR watersheds Emmanuel Mouche, François Moussu, Claude Mügler, Olivier Ribolzi, Christian Valentin, Oloth Sengtahevanghoung & Guillaume Lacombe
84
Assessment of wildfire impact on hydrological extremes in eastern Siberia Lyudmila Lebedeva & Olga Semenova & Nina Volkova
90
The correlation between variations of climatic factors and zonal runoff of mountain rivers Mikhail Bolgov & Marina Trubetskova
96
Linking variations in large-scale climatic circulation and high groundwater levels in southern England David A. Lavers, David M. Hannah & Chris Bradley
102
Rainfall regime evolution and drought forecasting in eastern Algeria Mohamed Meddi & Abdelwahab Rahmouni
107
Up-to-date climate forced seasonal flood changes (the case study for the European part of Russia) Natalia Frolova, Maria Kireeva, Dmitry Nesterenko, Svetlana Agafonova & Pavel Tersky
113
Improvement of reservoir operation by hybrid optimization algorithm: case study of HuongDien Reservoir, Vietnam Van Hoa Ho & Joong Hoon Kim
119
Optimal reservoir operation strategy for balancing ecosystem and human needs Fi-John Chang, Wen-Ping Tsai, Yu-Chung Wang, Pin-An Chen, Li-Chiu Chang, Alexandra Coynel & Georges Vachaud
126
Recent trends in monthly temperature and precipitation patterns in Europe Irene B. Nilsen, Anne K. Fleig, Lena M. Tallaksen & Hege Hisdal
132
Large-scale climate control on lake inflow in the Waitaki basin, New Zealand Daniel G. Kingston, Clare S. Webster & Pascal Sirguey
138
Sensitivity analysis of hydrological modelling to climate forcing in a semi-arid mountainous catchment D. Ruelland, A. Dezetter & P. Hublart
145
Prediction of water resources in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand Supattana Wichakul, Yasuto Tachikawa, Michiharu Shiiba & Kazuaki Yorozu
151
Modelling runoff and its components in Himalayan basins Hong Li, Stein Beldring, Chong-Yu Xu & Sharad K. Jain
158
Statistical analysis of river discharge projected using the MRI-AGCM3.2S dataset in Indochina Peninsula D. T. Duong, Y. Tachikawa, M. Shiiba & K. Yorozu
165
ix
Extreme precipitation events and related impacts in western Iberia Margarida L. R. Liberato & Ricardo M. Trigo
171
Unidirectional trends in rainfall and temperature of Bangladesh Shamsuddin Shahid, Xiao-Jun Wang & Sobri B. Harun
177
22 WWater resources and prospective scenarios
Assessing past and future water demands under climate change and anthropogenic pressures on two Mediterranean basins B. Grouillet, J. Fabre, D. Ruelland, L. Collet & J-F. Boyer
185
A multi-tracer approach to understand the hydrogeochemical functioning of a coastal aquifer located in NE Tunisia Fethi Lachaal, Anis Chekirbane, Ammar Mlayah, Bilel Hjiri & Jamila Tarhouni
191
L’aménagement des barrages de retenue d’eau, une stratégie d’adaptation à la sécheresse dans le bassin du fleuve Niger? / Is the building of dams an adaptation strategy to fight against drought in the basin of the River Niger? G. Liénou, G. Mahé, S. L. Piih, D. Sighomnou, J. E. Paturel & F. Bamba
197
Assessing the long-term evolution of water supply capacity: comparison of two Mediterranean catchments J. Fabre, L. Collet, M. Milano, D. Ruelland, A. Dezetter, S. Ardoin-Bardin & E. Servat
203
Assessing the capacity to meet irrigation water needs for viticulture under climate variability in the Chilean Andes P. Hublart, D. Ruelland, A. Dezetter & H. Jourde
209
Present-day surface and subsurface water resources of European Russia: conditions, use and forecast R. Dzhamalov, N. Frolova, M. Kireeva & E. Rets
215
La prospective territoriale, un outil de réflexion sur la gestion de l’eau du bassin de la Durance en 2050 / The territorial foresight, a reflection framework for water management planning in the Durance River basin in 2050 R. Samie, C. Monteil, Y. Arama, H. Bouscasse & E. Sauquet
221
Modifications des températures et des précipitations sur le Bani, un sous-bassin du fleuve Niger / Changes in temperature and precipitation in the Bani watershed, a sub-basin of the Niger River Jean-Emmanuel Paturel & Malicki Zorom
228
Climate change and debris flow: hazards maps in Matucana village under IPCC scenarios Juan W. Cabrera Cabrera & Leonardo F. Castillo Navarro
234
A reconnaissance study of water and carbon fluxes in a tropical watershed of Peninsular Malaysia: stable isotope constraints Muhammad I. Syakir, Kern Y. Lee, Ian D. Clark & Jan Veizer
239
Characterizing infiltration of a tropical watershed from ALOSPALSAR data using the Green-Ampt infiltration model Nor Liyana Mohammad Khan, Muhamad Askari & Ab. Latif Ibrahim
245
x
Projected climate change impacts on water resources in northern Morocco with an ensemble of regional climate models Y. Tramblay, D. Ruelland, R. Bouaicha & E. Servat
250
Modèle conceptuel de l’aquifère du Continental Terminal d’Abidjan / Conceptual model of Abidjan Continental Terminal aquifer Auguste K. Kouassi, Francis W. Kouassi, Jules O. M. Mangoua & Issiaka Savane
256
Characterization and evaluation of the confined limestone aquifer in Kuwait Fawzia M. Al-Ruwaih
263
Etude géochimique et isotopique d’un aquifère phréatique côtier anthropisé: Nappe de Oussja-Ghar El Melah (Tunisie) / Geochemical and isotope study of coastal anthropogenic phreatic groundwater: Oussja-Ghar El Melah aquifer (Tunisia) Safouan Ben Ammar, Jean-Denis Taupin, Kamel Zouari, Mohamed Khouatmia & Mohamed Ben Assi
269
Choosing metrics that matter – quantifying performance to help address reservoir operation challenges in Kenya’s Tana basin Anthony P. Hurford & Julien J. Harou
276
Environmental and geomatics assessment of the Ha Thanh basin to hydrological hazards in central Vietnam Stephane Grivel, Anh Tu Ngo, Jean-Marc Zaninetti & Thi Van Luong
282
Forecasting and mitigation of flooding in a Mediterranean karstic watershed V. Borrell-Estupina, B. Ladouche, P.-O. Malaterre, S. Ricci, Y. Caballero, M. Coustau, N. Dorfliger, P. Fleury, M. Jay-Allemand, J.-C. Marechal & O. Thual
288
33 EErosion and ssediment transfer processes and trends
Using 137Cs and 210Pbex measurements to document erosion rates for different time windows in a small catchment in southern Italy Paolo Porto & Desmond E. Walling
297
Lessons from long-term monitoring of soil erosion in three southeast Asian agricultural catchments undergoing rapid land-use changes C. Valentin, A. Boonsaner, J. L. Janeau, P. Jouquet, T. Henry des Tureaux, S. Huon, K. Latsachack, Y. Le Troquer, J. L. Maeght, D. Orange, Pham Dinh Rinh, A. Pierret, P. Podwojewski, O. Ribolzi, A. de Rouw, O. Sengtaheuanghoung, N. Silvera, H. Robain, B. Soulileuth, W. Thothong, Tran Duc Toan & Tran Sy Hai
303
Study of the relationship between sediment transport and rainfall extremes in the watershed of the wadi Mina (northwest Algeria) F. Hallouz, M. Meddi & G. Mahe
309
xi
“Blue-green” corridors as a tool for erosion and stream control in highly urbanized areas – case study of Belgrade city
315
44 HHydrological ddatabases: how to cope with future questions
Ensuring hydrometric data are fit-for-purpose through a national Service Level Agreement Katie Muchan & Harry Dixon
323
Future Flows: a dataset of climate, river flow and groundwater levels for climate change impact studies in Great Britain C. Prudhomme, C. Jackson, T. Haxton, S. Crooks, S. Dadson, D. Morris, J. Williamson, A. Barkwith, J. Kelvin, J. Mackay, L. Wang, G. Goodsell, L. Boelee, H. Davies, G. Buys, T. Lafon, A. Young & G. Watts
330
Architecture of environmental information systems applied to scientific observatories: examples of Carnoulès and MEDYCYSS observatories J. F. Boyer, E. Servat, C. Casiot & H. Jourde
336
Cooperative WebGIS interactive information systems for water resources data management Charalampos Skoulikaris, Jacques Ganoulis, Nikolaos Karapetsas, Fotis Katsogiannos & Georgios Zalidis
342
Towards a pan-European assessment of low flow indices Claire Lang Delus, Gregor Laaha, Daniel Koffler, Kerstin Stahl, Hege Hisdal, Christel Prudhomme, Miriam Fendekova & Wojciech Jakubowski
348
Selecting an optimal climatic dataset for integrated modelling of the Ebro hydrosystem A. Dezetter, J. Fabre, D. Ruelland & E. Servat
355
Growing season length and rainfall extremes analysis in Malawi Cosmo Ngongondo, Lena M. Tallaksen & Chong-Yu Xu
361
Standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI): Sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration model and parameters James H. Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Chong-Yu Xu & Henny A. J. Van Lanen
367
Minimizing geopolitically ungauged catchment area of transboundary river basins to support disaster risk reduction Kelly M. Kibler
374
Probability distribution of rainfall in the Bia watershed: contribution of Markov chains Meledje N'diaye Hermann, Kouassi Kouakou Lazare, Ngo Yao Alexis & Savane Issiaka
379
Assessment of rainfall observed by weather radar and its effect on hydrological simulation performance Nghi Vu Van, Nhung Tran Thi & Quyet Le Dinh
386
Predicting soil water retention characteristics for Vietnam Mekong Delta soils Nguyen M. Phuong, Le V. Khoa & Wim Cornelis
392
xii
55 RRegional oobservational-hydrological modelling frameworks
Connecting streamflow and atmospheric conditions in Europe: state-of-the-art review and future directions David M. Hannah, Anne K. Fleig, Daniel G. Kingston, James H. Stagge & Donna Wilson
401
Water budget in the Amazon basin and impacts on flood modelling Augusto Getirana, Sujay Kumar, Christa Peters-Lidard & Kristi Arsenault
407
Measurement, modelling and analysis of hydrological and hydrogeological processes and trends in a marsh area Branka Bracic Zeleznik & Lidija Globevnik
413
From drought to floods in 2012: operations and early warning services in the UK Charlie Pilling, David Price, Adrian Wynn, Andrew Lane, Steven J. Cole, Robert J. Moore & Timothy Aldridge
419
Les lacs collinaires en Tunisie: technique de conservation des eaux et du sol/ Small lakes in Tunisia: water and soil conservation technique Hamadi Habaieb, Taoufik Hermassi, Slaheddine Ghedaoui & Issam Anatar
425
Application of hydrological model to evaluate the potential hydro energy in a mountainous small river basin of Japan Kazumasa Fujimura, Masahiro Murakami, Yoshihiko Iseri & Shinjiro Kanae
431
Influence des activités anthropiques sur le régime hydrologique du fleuve Logone de 1960 à 2000 / Human activities influence on the hydrological regime of the Logone River basin from 1960 to 2000 N. Tellro Waï, B. Ngounou Ngatcha, G. Mahe, J. C. Doumnang, F. Delclaux, N. Goundoul & P. Genthon
438
Estimation of runoff curve numbers using a physically-based approach of preferential flow modelling Pori Das, Aminul Islam, Subashisa Dutta, Amit K. Dubey & Rupak Sarkar
443
6 Changes in ecological flows and coastal ecohydrology
Hydrological regime of a tidal system in the Red River Delta, northern Vietnam Luu Thi Nguyet Minh, Didier Orange, Tran Hong Thai, Josette Garnier, Le Lan Anh & Trinh Anh Duc
451
Measuring impact of water management on ecological health of a river: Poudre River, Colorado, USA Robert T. Milhous
457
Impact of climate change on aquatic ecosystems along the Asse River network Thomas Cipriani, François Tilmant, Flora Branger, Eric Sauquet & Thibault Datry
463
Ecological flow for integrated planning of small hydropower plants: a case study from Greece Thomas Patsialis, Charalampos Skoulikaris & Jacques Ganoulis
469
Key word index 475