Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)

Overview

NOAA Hurricane Conference

Ed Rappaport

for Fred Toepfer and Bob Gall

December 1, 2009

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HFIP Origin and Leadership

• Established by the NOAA Executive Council May 10, 2007

• Executive Oversight Board • Dr. John L. Hayes, NWS Director (co-chair)• Dr. Richard Spinrad, AA for Oceanic and Atmospheric

Research (co-chair)

• Project Manager: Fred Toepfer, NWS OST

• HFIP Technical Manager: Robert Gall, UCAR

• Research Lead: Frank Marks, OAR, AOML, HRD

• Operations Lead: Ed Rappaport, NWS, NCEP, NHC

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HFIP Goals

• Significantly improve guidance to NHC for hurricane track and intensity forecasts. (WFOs to benefit directly from better operational model guidance and indirectly through better NHC forecasts and products.)

• Unify NOAA’s hurricane research effort

• Provide the basis for NOAA co-leading with the National Science Foundation, Navy and others a national effort to:– Define and coordinate a national hurricane research agenda – Apply new science and technology to the hurricane forecast

warning and forecast problem through a National Hurricane Forecast System (NHFS)

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HFIP Metrics

HFIP metrics for Atlantic guidance include:

• Reduce average track errors by 50% for Days 1 through 5.

• Reduce average intensity errors by 50% for Days 1 through 5.

• Increase the probability of detection (POD) for rapid intensity change to 90% at Day 1 decreasing linearly to 60% at Day 5, and decrease the false alarm ratio (FAR) for rapid intensity change to 10% for Day 1 increasing linearly to 30% at Day 5.

• Extend the lead time for hurricane forecasts out to Day 7 [with accuracy of Day 5 forecasts in 2003].

Track Goals

Track Goals50% reduction in error

50% reduced forecasterrors

50% reduced forecasterrors

Track Goals7-day forecast with 50%

reduction in error

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8 PM Sat

8 PM Sun

Intensity Goals

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Rapid Intensification Goals

HFIP “stretch” goals for model guidance for rapid intensification

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Lead Time (Day)

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FAR GFDL

HFIP GOAL

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POD GFDL

NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)

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HFIP Science Approach

The scope of the HFIP encompasses research and development:

• Of advanced high-resolution numerical prediction and ensemble predictions systems for hurricane forecast guidance,

• To improve understanding, emphasis on the phenomena related to predictability of rapid intensity (RI) change and secondary eyewall phenomena,

• To improve observations and observational strategies for the hurricane and its environment,

• Of novel methods for data assimilation, to assimilate the diverse range of existing and new observations, and

• To accelerate the transfer of research results into operational forecasting.

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HFIP will continue to emphasize a two-track approach…

1) “Stream 1”: Operational Model Suite enhancements (EMC Managed Testing & Implementation): – Relies on existing and traditional growth of computing resources. – Development is focused on HWRF. HFIP will focus on alternatives to

improve HWRF prediction (initial conditions & physics).

2. “Stream 2”: Advanced Model Demonstration Project:– Primary Purpose: To prove that the high performance computing (HPC)

resources will lead to improved guidance accuracy. This will hopefully lead to increased operational resources.

– Need to continue to seek computer resources outside of NOAA.

HFIP FY10 Strategy

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HFIP Teams

FY2010 Teams Comprised of Personnel from the Following Organizations (bold indicates Organization of Team Lead/Co-Lead):

1. Global Model/Physics Development Team

ESRL, AOML, NRL, GFDL, EMC, NRL

2. Regional Model/Physics Development Team

GFDL, EMC, AOML, NRL, ESRL URI, Old Dominion Univ, NESL

3. Ensemble Development Team ESRL, NRL, HRD, PSU, EMC, NHC, FSU

4. Data Assimilation/Vortex Initialization Team

EMC, ESRL, NRL, AOML, CIRA, PSU

5. Verification Team GFDL, RAL, NRL, NESDIS/STAR, AOML, NHC, EMC, ESRL

6. Applications Development and Diagnostics Team

NHC, NESDIS/STAR, EMC, NRL, HRD, RAL, ESRL, Old Dominion Univ, AOML, FSU

7. Hurricane Observations Team AOML, RSMAS, NHC, EMC, NESDIS/STAR, ESRL, URI, NRL, AOC, RAL

8. Ocean/Wave Model Team EMC, AOML, URI, ESRL, NRL, RSMAS

...to establish and attend to annualpriorities, deliverables and milestones

…FY10 process underway

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HFIP Budget

FY 2009 New Money

• HWRF/SLOSH O&M $1M• NHFS Transition $3M• NHFS Development $17M

– Development $11M– HPC $6M

FY 2010 New Money

• HWRF/SLOSH O&M $1M• NHFS Transition $3M• NHFS Development

– Development $10M– HPC $3M

Executive Office of President, Statement of Administration Policy, Oct 5, 2009:

“However, within this funding level, the administration urges the Congress to provide the additional $13 million requested to support accelerated improvement of hurricane track and intensity forecasts, which will help to prevent unnecessary and costly evacuations.”

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Planned FY10HFIP HPC Resources

System Planned Usage

TACC*: ~4M processor hours left to use for CY 2009. Proposal Submitted for 20M Processor Hours for CY 2010.

High-Resolution Global Models and Global Dual-Model Ensembles; Data Assimilation (EnKF); Regional Ensembles (PSU ARW); Testing and Evaluation

Boulder: ~3000 processors dedicated 24/7 to HFIP.

High-Resolution Deterministic Regional Models, High Resolution Nested Deterministic Models, Testing and Evaluation.

DOE: 20M processor hours for CY 2010

High-Resolution Global Models; High-Resolution Two-Way Nested Global Models.

Gaithersburg: ~ 160 processors dedicated 24/7 to HFIP.

Final Implementation Testing of HWRF/Testing of HWRF 4 km

*Texas Advanced Computing Center

Questions?