Humber Bridge Review

Results from the HUMBER ESTUARY TRANSPORT MODEL

This presentation

• The model

• Results of option tests

• Traffic impacts

• Economic appraisal

• The model

• Results of option tests

• Traffic impacts

• Economic appraisal

Purpose of the model

• To allow the assessment of the impact of different tolling scenarios for the Humber Bridge on both:• traffic flows• the Humber area economy

• Designed to be consistent with the DfT’s Transport Analysis Guidance (WebTAG)

• Designed to forecast the demand response to changes in the tolls in terms of the number & destination of trips made, as well as route choice

• To allow the assessment of the impact of different tolling scenarios for the Humber Bridge on both:• traffic flows• the Humber area economy

• Designed to be consistent with the DfT’s Transport Analysis Guidance (WebTAG)

• Designed to forecast the demand response to changes in the tolls in terms of the number & destination of trips made, as well as route choice

Model area

Full extent: area bounded by Thirsk, Scarborough, Grantham, Boston.

Western boundary: A1

>200 traffic origin/ destination zones plus externals

Model area

Network where all traffic movement actively simulated (links and junctions shown):

west of Scunthorpe to east of Hull

150 traffic O/D zones

Model capability

• 3 time periods: am peak, interpeak, pm peak

• 5 vehicle types: private car, 4x goods vehicle classes

• 5 passenger journey purposes:

• home-based: journey to work, employer’s business, other

• non home-based: employer’s business, other

• 3 income classes (low, medium, high) for commuting & other

• each has its own demand elasticity w/ respect to trip cost

• 3 model years: 2010, 2021, 2033

• Does not model public transport

• 3 time periods: am peak, interpeak, pm peak

• 5 vehicle types: private car, 4x goods vehicle classes

• 5 passenger journey purposes:

• home-based: journey to work, employer’s business, other

• non home-based: employer’s business, other

• 3 income classes (low, medium, high) for commuting & other

• each has its own demand elasticity w/ respect to trip cost

• 3 model years: 2010, 2021, 2033

• Does not model public transport

Model source data

• Update & extension of pre-existing north bank model• 41,000 roadside interviews on trip origin/destination,

journey purpose at 38 sites (5,000 interviews at 5 sites bespoke for this study);

• >100 traffic count sites

• Growth in trips 2010-2033 from DfT National Trip End Model (NTEM) forecast, version 6.2 incorporating the effects of the 2008/09 recession

• Update & extension of pre-existing north bank model• 41,000 roadside interviews on trip origin/destination,

journey purpose at 38 sites (5,000 interviews at 5 sites bespoke for this study);

• >100 traffic count sites

• Growth in trips 2010-2033 from DfT National Trip End Model (NTEM) forecast, version 6.2 incorporating the effects of the 2008/09 recession

Toll option tests

• Base case (Do Nothing) = existing toll level in real terms (£2.70 per car in 2010 prices)

• Toll levels tested:

• No toll

• Maintenance-only level toll, £1 per car (63% reduction, other vehicle classes pro rata)

• £2 per car toll (26% reduction)

• £2.43 per car toll (10% reduction)

• Base case (Do Nothing) = existing toll level in real terms (£2.70 per car in 2010 prices)

• Toll levels tested:

• No toll

• Maintenance-only level toll, £1 per car (63% reduction, other vehicle classes pro rata)

• £2 per car toll (26% reduction)

• £2.43 per car toll (10% reduction)

Traffic in the base model (2010)

Bridge traffic northbound, am peak

Bridge traffic southbound, am peak

Base case, growth in traffic 2010-2033

Base case, growth in congestion delays 2010-2033

Traffic impact of removing tolls (2010)

Impact of reducing tolls by 63%

Impact of reducing tolls by 10%

Change in congestion delays in zero tolls option (2033 am peak)

Modelled effect of toll level on traffic

Effect of toll level on bridge traffic (base year), am peak

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00

Toll (£ at 2010 prices)

Veh

icle

s p

er h

ou

r, b

oth

dir

ecti

on

s, a

m p

eak

H Bridge (noVDM)

H Bridge(with VDM)

M62 Goole(no VDM)

M62 Goole(with VDM)

Modelled effect of toll level on traffic

Effect of toll level on bridge traffic (base year), interpeak

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00

Toll (£ at 2010 prices)

Veh

icle

s p

er h

ou

r, b

oth

dir

ecti

on

s, a

m p

eak

H Bridge (noVDM)

H Bridge(with VDM)

M62 Goole(no VDM)

M62 Goole(with VDM)

Effect of toll level on traffic, base year (with full demand response)

Toll at 2010 prices

Change in toll

Change in traffic am peak

Change in traffic interpeak

2.70 Humber Bg

M62 Goole

Humber Bg

M62 Goole

2.43 -10% 3% 0% 3% 0%

2.00 -26% 10% -1% 10% -1%

1.35 -50% 25% -1% 26% -1%

1.00 -63% 32% -2% 35% -1%

0.00 -100% 54% -2% 67% -5%

Economic appraisal

• Economic efficiency of the transport system analysis:

• For commuters, other consumers, businesses (passenger and road freight), impact on: • travel time

• vehicle operating cost

• user charges

• For the public sector, direct revenues and indirect tax revenues

• Economic efficiency of the transport system analysis:

• For commuters, other consumers, businesses (passenger and road freight), impact on: • travel time

• vehicle operating cost

• user charges

• For the public sector, direct revenues and indirect tax revenues

Economic appraisal

• Wider impacts analysis:

• Agglomeration benefits

• Welfare benefits

• Broadly speaking, the benefits to employers and employees of a broader, deeper labour pool in a sub-regional labour market

• Wider impacts analysis:

• Agglomeration benefits

• Welfare benefits

• Broadly speaking, the benefits to employers and employees of a broader, deeper labour pool in a sub-regional labour market

Economic appraisal – transport economic efficiency

TUBA benefits by toll level: road freight

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

00.511.522.53

Toll in 2010 (£)

PV

B £

m

Road freight - time

Road freight -VOCRoad freight - tolls

Economic appraisal – transport economic efficiency

Reducing tolls: benefits to users -v- losses to public sector

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

00.511.522.53

Toll in 2010 (£)

Pre

sen

t va

lue

£m

Commuters- tolls

Other csrs -tolls

Businesspsgr - tolls

Road freight- tolls

Lostrevenue

Economic appraisal – transport economic efficiency

Travel time and vehicle operating costs benefits by toll level

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

00.511.522.53

Toll in 2010 (£)

PV

B £

m

Commuters - travel time

Other csrs - travel time

Business psgr - traveltimeCommuters - VOC

Other csrs - VOC

Business psgr - VOC

Present value of benefits and costsbefore wider impacts

Present value of costs & benefits by toll level

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

£0.00£0.50£1.00£1.50£2.00£2.50

Toll

Pre

sen

t va

lue

(£m

)

PVB pre WITA

PVC

Present value of benefits and costsbefore wider impacts

Breakdown of WITA benefits by toll level

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

00.511.522.53

Toll in 2010 (£)

PV

B £

m

Agglomeration

Welfare

Present value of benefits and costswith wider impacts

Present value of costs & benefits by toll level

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

£0.00£0.50£1.00£1.50£2.00£2.50

Toll

Pre

sen

t va

lue

(£m

)

PVB pre WITA

PVC

PVB w ith WITA

BCR by toll level

BCR by toll level

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

£0.00£0.50£1.00£1.50£2.00£2.50

Toll

BC

R Pre WITA

With WITA