Humanitarian Challenges – 10 years after 9/11

• • What has changed in

the last ten years

• What can we expect in the next ten years

•

2

Follow the money

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

DAC donors Non-DAC donors

Conflict Rules!

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

2

4

6

8

10

12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

47.1%

59.2% 60.5%

65.3%

77.1% 77.3%79.5%

81.4%

76.2% 75.3% 74.5%

Total humanitarian aid to conflict-affected countriesTotal humanitarian aid to non-conflict countriesTotal country-allocable humanitarian aidTotal ODA to conflict affected states as a share of total country-allocable ODA

US$

billi

on (c

onst

ant 2

008

price

s)

Source: Development Initiatives 2011 from OECD DAC data

Limbo or Purgatory?

Attacks relative to aid worker population in the field

0

2

4

6

8

10

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Global attack rates per 10,000

Source: Stoddard et al. 2009

What next?

• Politicization and manipulation are here to stay

• Recognize that with power comes responsibility

• Less is more?• Recognize that aid

can be de-stabilizing

3 mega trends…

• Humanitarian assistance is up, humanitarianism is down.

• Universalism is down, sovereignty/nationalism is up

• Conflict is down, so-called “natural” disasters are up

From a powerful discourse to a discourse of power

• Disconnect between the hum narrative and the reality of “humanitarian power”

• The end of a mobilizing myth?

The importance of principles