Introduction

Organization’s human resources are utilized more frequently today as sources of competitive

advantages; human resource planning inputs will become more critical in the strategy

formulation process. The case is provides an indication of the importance of having appropriate

Computer system to support human resources. The description of United Airlines short range

station Manpower planning systems where computerized system has an important financial

impact in cost savings. While some human resource forecasting approaches are qualitative rather

than quantitative and therefore require minimal computer support, many others require

sophisticated software. A number of computer software packages are available for strategic

human resource applications. For example; specialized software can be obtained for succession

planning, human resource forecasting and modeling human resources flows. This software

evaluation team should include representation from end user groups, information technology and

any other support groups. Although there is growing availability of human resource planning

software managers should remember that user dissatisfaction is still a problem with various

software packages.

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Question-01

What would be some critical parameters or assumptions in software used to

forecast an organization’s internal supply of human resources?

Human resource plan

HRP is to get the right number of people with the right skills, experience, and competencies in

the right jobs at the right time and at the right cost. This ensures that the business production

requirements are met in an efficient and effective manner. Having too many employees is

problematic due to the risk of high labor expenses, downsizing, or layoffs. Having too few

employees is also problematic due to high overtime costs, the risk of unmet production

requirements, and the challenge of finding the instant human resources needed to get the job

done. According to the Government of Canada, human resource planning links people

management to the organization’s mission, vision, goals and objectives, as well as its strategic

plan and budgetary resources. A critical component of an effective HR plan is the method of

forecasting. There are four steps in the HR planning process. Before embarking on the HR

planning process, an organization must determine the appropriate planning horizon. This

includes creating an awareness of both immediate and long-term staffing concerns. As well,

planners should assess and accurately understand the current staffing situation in the

organization. An HR audit is useful for collecting information in a meaningful way, but depends

on the level of clarity regarding who is considered to be in the workforce.

HR forecasting

Forecasting refers to the interaction between the decision maker’s perceptual and cognitive

processes and the objective characteristics of their environment. Forecasting HR supply is a

component of the first step. There are a number of different triggers for changes in the internal

labor force, including actuary losses, voluntary turnover, and involuntary turnover. As well, the

supply of human resources available outside of the organization is also in flux. Thus, this step

requires the effective mapping of the effects of internal and external labor forces changes to the

organization. Tools such as trend analysis, skills/competency models, replacement charts,

succession planning, staffing tables, and Markov analysis can be used in this step.

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HR Forecasting Methods:

Types of Forecasts:

HR Demand

Internal Supply

External Supply

Forecasting HR supply

Forecasting HR supply involves an understanding of internal and external potential human

resource supplies. Due to the availability of data and the multiple methods that can be used,

internal supply is usually easier to establish than external supply. However, it is still important to

try to determine external supply as accurately as possible.

Forecasting external HR supply:

There are multiple levels at which external HR supply can be predicted, including global,

national, provincial, regional, and local. Information that will help develop an understanding of

external HR supply includes:

Supply and demand of jobs or skills

Educational attainment levels within a region

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Judgmental

Estimates

Rules of thumb

Delphi Technique

Nominal Groups

Mathematical

Statistical regression analysis

Simulation models

Productivity ratios

Staffing ratios

Compensation patterns based on experience, education, or occupation

Immigration and emigration patterns within an area

Forecasts of economic growth or decline

Competition for talent

Industry or occupational expected growth levels

Public policy, government, and legal changes

Trends in labor force participation (including entry and exit)

Technological development patterns

Forecasting internal HR supply: By reviewing the data in the HR audits, projections can

be made for future HR supply. The internal labor force may be affected by temporary absences

such as leaves of absence (e.g., educational leave, maternity/paternity leave), permanent

absences (e.g., death, disability, retirement), or turnover (e.g., resignations, dismissals, layoffs).

Death, disability, and retirement are considered actuarial losses in that these are life events that

affect all populations. These can be predicted with some degree of accuracy by using mortality

rates. Understanding occupational health and safety risks, or reviewing demographic information

about the population.

Supply Forecasting Techniques

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Turnover

Trend Analysis

Skills/Competency Models

Replacement Charts

Succession Planning

Staffing Tables

Supervisors EstimatesRegression Analysis

Markov Analysis

Turnover: Turnover refers to the termination of an individual’s employment with an

organization. The standard definition of total turnover is the total number of employees

leaving an organization divided by the total number of employees in an organization,

regardless of whether the turnover was voluntary or involuntary. Turnover can be

classified into two sub groups—voluntary and involuntary. Voluntary turnover is

defined as employee-initiated turnover, mainly in the form of quits or resignations. In this

instance, the decision to terminate employment with the firm is made by the employee,

without management enticement. Involuntary turnover is defined as employer-initiated

turnover, mainly in the form of dismissals or layoffs. The employee has little or no

personal say in this turnover decision.

There are a variety of methods to forecast future HR supply. They include trend analysis,

skills/competency inventories, replacement charts, succession planning, staffing tables,

and Markov analysis. In the following section, these methods will be explained with

some examples.

Trend Analysis: A method of forecasting that assumes past trends and ratios inn

employee movement are stable and indicative of future trends and ratios in employee

movement. For example, an organization reviewing historical data may realize that every

year, approximately five percent of their staff retires, six percent resign, and three percent

are dismissed. Using a simple trend analysis, future HR supply forecasts can be

established by assuming an average reduction in internal HR supply of 14 percent per

year.

Skills/Competency Models: A competency is a set of behaviors that encompass skills,

knowledge, abilities, and personal attributes, that taken together, are critical to successful

work accomplishment. The competency model is a future-oriented model that first

reviews competencies that are aligned with an organization’s mission, vision, and

strategy, and then aims to identify an ideal workforce in terms of those competencies.

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Replacement Charts: A replacement chart is used to estimate vacancies in higher level

jobs and identify how potential HR supply can fill these vacancies via internal

movements from lower levels jobs. A comprehensive replacement chart will include

information regarding possible replacements for vertical or horizontal movement.

Succession Planning: : While replacement charts provide identification of potential

replacements for vacancies within an organization, succession planning focuses on

identifying, developing, and tracking future leaders for executive positions or positions

that are critical to the success of the organization. Succession planning is a longer-term

process of grooming a successor (selected from a pool of candidates on the basis of

perceived competency) for management or critical positions. An organization can use the

skills inventory, HR audit, or a succession summary to help identify potential successors

and skill gaps that can be addressed through succession planning.

Staffing Tables: To assess internal HR supply, a staffing table provides a clear

graphical view of all organizational jobs and the current number of employees at each

job. It presents a simple visual understanding of an organization’s staffing level within

each department and the organization as a whole, in an effort to help understand the

combination of employees that make up an organization’s internal workforce. This

information is useful in evaluating staffing levels by department, branch, or project; the

types of staff at each level; and the combination of staff in all categories.

Markov Analysis: A Markov analysis extends beyond the staffing table to help predict

internal employee movement from one year to another by identifying percentages of

employees who remain in their jobs, get promoted or demoted, transfer, and exit out of

the organization. By tracking and predicting employment movement within an

organization, the Markov analysis allows for the development of a transition matrix to

forecast internal labor supply.

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Parameters or assumptions’ in software used to forecast an organization’s

internal supply of human resources

As organizations' human resources are utilized more frequently as sources of competitive

advantage, HRP and forecasting will become more central to the strategic planning process. It

will be essential for HR executives or other executives to be able to forecast the future availabil-

ity of employees having knowledge in such critical areas as technology. A number of computer

software packages are available for strategic human resource applications. For example:

Specialized software can be obtained for succession planning

Human resource forecasting

Modeling human resource flows

Human resource planning inputs will become more critical in the strategy formulation process.

That’s why some critical parameters or assumptions are required in software used to forecast an

organization’s internal supply of human resources.

Several factors and parameters influence the selection of forecasting techniques and software’s.

Size of the organization is important in software used. For example, minimum numbers

of incumbents in the various positions are necessary to develop reliable probabilities of

transition from one position to another. Nonetheless, companies having as few as 2,000

employees have developed effective human resource forecasting models. If the purpose is

to forecast the supply of human resources in order to identify and eliminate bottlenecks in

the career paths of promising managers, replacement charts of Markov analysis used.

Another factor in selection of forecasting techniques is the complexity of the

organization.

The software evaluation team should include representatives from end-user groups,

information technology (IT), and any other support groups.

User’s perceptions of the user friendliness and usefulness of software should be even

more critical because of the grater decentralization of HRP in many organizations.

Another factor is that with longer-rage forecasting horizons, there is a tendency to use

more sophisticated forecasting technique

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Question-02

Which of a company’s computerized database should be integrated with a

computerized succession planning system? Which ones should not?

Succession planning

It involves more elaborate planning for skill development of potential replacements, is more

systematic in the assessment of potential replacements and their developmental needs, and

generally applies to higher level of managerial position. For succession planning in human

resource forecasting approaches require sophisticated software support .A number of

computerized database should available for strategic human resource applications. We know

that database refers to a collection of data organized to serve many applications efficiently by

centralizing the data &controlling redundant data. Specialized database can be obtained for

Succession planning

Human resource forecasting

Modeling human resource flows

This HRM database includes employee data management, applicant’s data management, job data

management, employee training data management.

As we all know, Microsoft Access is the most widely used desktop database system in the world.

Microsoft Access is part of Microsoft Office so there is a common interface and lots of

developers and support options available. It pretty much covers all the functionalities for small

business needs. So the database should integrate the human resource related issues .The

following issues would be integrated

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Employee data

Company’s database should integrate employee data for succession planning .Employee data

should integrate the following issues-

Employee general information, photo, note attachment files, medical information, tax

information, monthly timesheet, payroll reports (based on the tax information and

timesheet), resume and training records and medical insurance and emergency contacts .

Record of all employees’ information that a company can review it by name list, phone

list, or department lists.

Record of all employees benefits such as pension, medical and insurance, recreation

programs that a company has provided for their employees.

HR payroll report, phone list, employee list, department list reports.

Employee job history information.

Employee certification and awards manage.

Employee performance evaluations information &

Employee equipment tracking.

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Succession planning system

Employee data

job data

Applicant's data

Training data

Job Data

For succession planning the database should integrate the following issues-

Job opening Information, functions, requirements and skills information.

Department of job opening list management

Applicant’s Data

The database should integrate applicant’s data who apply for various post of the company.I n

applicant’s data, the following issues should integrate-

Recording all applicants records and contact information

Applicant status management

Applicant interview setup

Employee Training Data

List of all training program that company has provided

Record of all employees training records.

Computerized databases that should or should not integrated

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Question-03

What are the factors that could prevent a company from realizing the benefits

of an investment in human resource planning software?

Although investment in human resource planning software is beneficial for a company but a

number of factors give resistance to company in realizing these benefits. These resistances may

be direct and indirect. That means the effects of these factors can come from directly or

indirectly to prevent the company from realizing the benefits of an investment in human resource

planning software. The factors are:

1. Availability of Funds: In execution of human resource planning software system, a

strong fund base is needed. Expenditure will occur in the designing of software system,

installing software system and training significant employees. So, lack of availability of

fund could prevent a company from realizing benefits of human resource planning

software system.

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1.Employee database 2.Job database 3.Applicant’s database4.Training & Development database

1.Customer database2.Marketing database3.Database of strategic issue4.Inventory database5.Competitors’ database

Computerized

database

Should Integrat

e

Should not

Integrate

2. Cost: Market price of the installation of human resource planning software may be so

high than estimated price may prevent a company from realizing the benefits of an

investment in human resource planning software.

3. Training and Education: As line managers take more responsibilities for succession

planning, HR planning and forecasting, there will be increased need for systems they can

use without great difficulty. Along this line efforts to educate and train line managers on

use of these software packages should enhance the ultimate success of the company’s

human resource planning and forecasting efforts. Without proper training and education

could prevent a company from realizing benefits of an investment in human resource

planning software.

4. User Dissatisfaction: Although there is growing availability of human resource planning

software, managers should remember that user dissatisfaction is still a problem with

various software packages. Such dissatisfaction often results because the complexity of

software has been underestimated and insufficient resources have been allocated to

implementation. So, if such dissatisfaction occurs, could prevent a company from

realizing the benefits of an investment in human resource planning software.

5. Size of the company: In size, a company may be big or small. In large organization it is

not the problem to implement human resource planning software system. Because, cost

will be minimal in executing such system. But problem occurs when size of the company

is small. In small organization, cost of this type of software will be high because of

matter of fixed cost. So, in small organization, instead of willingness of the company to

maintain such software, cost hinders company to realize the benefits of an investment in

human resource planning software.

6. Expert Technician: Although company has available funds, expert line managers and

facility in the form of large organization but lacking of expert designer of software can

prevent company from realizing benefits of an investment in human resource planning

software. In implementing such software system requires more skilled and creative

software technician. In the absence of such technician, company is unable to realize

benefits.

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Following are the explanation about how each one affects the return on investment:

Expert Technician: Expert technician refers to a group of people who are able to solve

technical problems easily and apply technical instrument in the proper places and times.

So, lacking of expert technicians negatively affects the return on investment.

Size of Company: Size of the company means the area of expansion and operation of

that certain organization. Size of the company is a very important issue because it is

directly related with the proper execution of the different types of managerial and other

activities. When size of the company is not properly defined with considering all the

issues, then it negatively affects on the return on investment.

User Identification: It actually refers to the end users that include both the internal and

external users of the organization. When all the users are not communicated properly then

they may not understand many important issues related with the execution of the

organization, that surely affects the return on investment.

Training and Education: It explains the proper training and education facilities

rendered to the employees of the organization. Training education facilities should be

adopted and modified with the passage of time, such as ,in modern times technical and

advanced HRM education and practices are very much important. So, not proper attention

of the training and education related with the employees of the organization must

negatively affect the return on investment.

Cost: Cost is a very much sensitive issue. So it must be incurred with considering all the

necessary related matters so that the increased cost can easily be managed with the

income. Otherwise it will affect the organization negatively.

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DirectorMembers of Boards/Commissions Executive Management Team Quality Councils

Question-04

What organizational groups should be represented on a committee that will

develop the requirements list against which human resource planning should

be evaluated?

Human resource planning is a team effort. It involves all levels and functional units of an agency

—top executives, middle managers and supervisors, and employees. Although human resource

planning begins at the top, leaders should seek and reflect the input of managers, supervisors,

and front-line employee who may know their customers and services best. The size of the team

will vary with the size and complexity of the agency. In a large agency, all of the participants

listed below may be involved. Depending on the size of the agency, successful human resource

planning may include the following team participants:

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Director

Director provides the leadership necessary to define the mission, craft the vision, and express the

principles of the agency the director must lead and actively support the planning process.

Members of Boards/Commissions

It plays an important policymaking role in the planning process. Boards and Commissions can

assist in developing the mission, principles, and vision of the agency. They can also provide

valuable feedback during the planning process.

Executive Management Team

It consisting of the agency’s top management and other staff, use their knowledge of services and

functional areas to: (1) work with the director in defining the agency’s mission, expressing the

agency’s principles, and crafting an agency-wide vision; (2) set goals to provide direction for the

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whole agency and to address identified issues, problems, and opportunities; and (3) monitor

overall progress and results The team should include knowledgeable individuals from all

programs or services operated by the agency, yet not become so large as to be cumbersome.

Many agencies already have executive management teams that routinely meet and handle

management issues. This group may serve as the nucleus of the planning team, along with

additional resource persons who can contribute because of their knowledge, regardless of their

rank in the agency.

Quality Council

Quality council ensures coordination of the strategic planning process with the agency’s quality

improvement efforts.

Middle Managers, Program Managers, Supervisors, and Front-line Employees

They involve direct program involvement and can carry the planning process into the program

level—defining program missions and principles, setting program goals and specific objectives,

developing courses of action or strategies to achieve objectives, operational strategies through

action plans, establishing and maintaining performance measures, and determining needed

resources.

Financial or Budget Managers

They must analyze fiscal impacts of potential strategies, provide technical support, and use

strategic plans to guide development of annual operating budgets and capital outlay budgets.

Facility Managers

They must analyze the impacts of implementing potential strategies on the agency’s physical

facilities and use strategic plans to guide development of capital outlay plans and budgets.

Human Resource Managers

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HR manager must analyze the impacts of implementing potential strategies on the agency’s

workforce, training programs, and human resource management policies.

Information Technology Systems Managers

They must analyze the impacts of implementing potential strategies on the agency’s information

technology management systems.

Strategic Planner or Planning Coordinator

They provide the coordination and tools for moving the organization through the planning

process. The strategic planner or planning coordinator develops the timetable and organizes the

entire process. (“Strategic Planner” or “Planning Coordinator” can be a functional title, not a

position. A large agency may have more than one planner. In a small agency, the director may be

the planning coordinator.)

Total Quality Management (TQM) Coordinator

TQM coordinator is responsible for coordinating the agency’s quality improvement effort, if

established. Involvement of the TQM coordinator can ensure that the agency’s strategic planning

and total quality efforts will be integrated. (“TQM Coordinator” may be a functional title, not a

position.)

Facilitator

Facilitator those persons who can help guide participants through planning sessions, by assuring

that all views are considered. A facilitator is a neutral party who is sometimes used to keep the

discussion flowing. “Facilitator” is a functional title, not a position, and may be someone from

outside the agency.

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The task of the committee is to evaluate the human resource planning process and also

evaluate the performance of the workers. The following topics helps to understand the

things clearly:

HR Planning Evaluation

HR plans need to be updated on a regular basis. Organizations will need to establish the

information necessary to evaluate the success of the new plan. Benchmarks need to be selected

and measured over time to determine if the plan is successful in achieving the desired objectives.

Organizational groups responsible for developing Human Resource planning evaluation

1 Develop a multi-level, cross-organizational team with the involvement of employees from all

levels.

2. Engaging participants from all levels of the organization will result in greater understanding of

and investment in the process.

3. It is vital to obtain diverse input from outside the group that performed the work..

Process of Human Resource Planning Evaluation

Following are important steps involved in completing an effective evaluation of the HR planning

process:

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HR strategies and plans

Human resources are utilized more frequently as sources of competitive advantage. In effective

evaluation in human resources,top management should develop a successful committee as well

as strategies plans and programs for which they will select right person in the right place .In HR

strategics and plans following matters should be considered:

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Step 1 Define a clear aim or goal for the evaluation process

Step 2 Understand the needs of the people who are served by the process and its outcomes

Step 3 Identify and define measures of success by reviewing the desired outcomes of the HR planning process.

Step 4 Brainstorm potential change strategies for producing improvement in the HR planning processes.

Step 5 Plan, collect, and use data for facilitating effective decision making

Step 6 Apply a scientific method to test and refine changes, in short cycles, to make sure the process is working

Step 7 People at all levels of the organization feel an ability to contribute to the process and to the evaluation and improvement of the process

Step 8 Form a team that has knowledge of the HR planning process.

Work design Learning and developmentOrganizational development

By using these strategies employee’s gets proper satisfaction within their jobs and organization

will get right person.

Conclusions:

The changing environment has increased both the strategic importance and the difficulty of

human resource planning. Organizations are concerned about having an adequate supply of

successors for their top-level positions who will have the experiences and skills needed to

provide leadership. With the recognition of human resources as a source of competitive

advantage, human resource planning will have a larger strategic role in the future. Along with

increasing importance, there also has been a trend toward decentralization of the responsibilities

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Recruitment and selection

Performance management

Career development and

succession management

Reward and recognition

HR planning

HR information management

for human resource planning to line managers. Aside from the benefits of such planning, the

problems that organizations incur when they fail to plan. Such problems include having

shortages or surpluses of employees with various skills and experiences, as well as higher

operating costs, which result from failures to include staffing projections in strategic plans. All of

the discussed problem and prospects will be solved easily by using different software’s. That’s

why it is important for manager to know the use of software for effective human resource

planning and performance evaluation.

References:

Gaballa, A. and Pearce, W. 1979, "Telephone sales manpower planning at Qantas,"

Interfaces, Vol. 9, No. 3 (May), pp. 1-9.

Henderson, W. and Berry, W. 1976, "Heuristic methods for telephone operator shift

scheduling:

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An experimental analysis," Management Science, Vol. 22, No. 12 (August), pp. 1372-

1380.

Keith, E. G. 1979, "Operator scheduling," AIIE Transactions, Vol. 11, No.1 (March),

pp.37-il.

Rubin, J. 1975, "Manpower scheduling model," IBM Cambridge Scientific Center

Technical Report No. G320-2104, Qanuary.

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