Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Hugo Denier van der Gon & Tinus Pulles
PM updateEU 2000 PM2.5 Inventory project
Task Force on Emission Inventories and Projections' (TFEIP) Expert Panel on Agriculture and Nature, Průhonice , 26 April 2006
Outline
• Background of the project• Approach• Expected results• Time table• Discussion points
Background
The European Commission • is preparing for a revision of the National Emission Ceilings
Directive in 2006. - NEC establishes national limits on the emission that can be emitted in a particular target year
• considers introducing national emission ceilings for PM2.5.
To enable this, an accurate emission inventory of primary PM2.5 in the 25 EU Member States, “acceding countries” (Bulgaria, Romania) and “Candidate Countries“ (Croatia, Turkey, FYR of Macedonia) is needed.
Consortium• TNO (NL, lead organisation)• NETCEN / AEAT (UK)• IVL (SW)
Related project: PM2.5 Guidebook update commissioned by EC / DG Env.
Approach: Build Generalized Inventory in relational database structure
• Activity_ID
• Sector
• Location
• Time
Activities
• AR-Value
• Activity_ID
• Technology_ID
• Penetration
Select_Techn
• EF_ID
• Technology_ID
• Pollutant
• EF-Value
EmissionFactors• Technology_ID
• Description
Technologies
• To improve transparency & direct link to Guidebook development• Allowing identification of SNAP technologies and NFR sector codes• “Select_Techn” links Activity to Technology allowing country-specific EFs • Easy transformation of the data to other formats (e.g. RAINS)
Approach:First order draft inventory
• Activity_ID
• Sector
• Location
• Time
Activities
• AR-Value
• Activity_ID
• Technology_ID
• Penetration
Select_Techn
• EF_ID
• Technology_ID
• Pollutant
• EF-Value
EmissionFactors• Technology_ID
• Description
TechnologiesDerived from the CEPMEIPstudy
Approach:First order draft inventory and uncertainty analysis
• Activity_ID
• Sector
• Location
• Time
Activities
• AR-Value
• Activity_ID
• Technology_ID
• Penetration
Select_Techn
• EF_ID
• Technology_ID
• Pollutant
• EF-Value
EmissionFactors• Technology_ID
• Description
Technologies
• Key Source analysis
• Monte Carlo simulation to identify
• the uncertainties for each country
• the most important contributions to this uncertainty
Objective
• direct the national experts attention to the major problems
Approach:Liaison with ”Guidebook project” and TFEIP co-chairs
• Activity_ID
• Sector
• Location
• Time
Activities
• AR-Value
• Activity_ID
• Technology_ID
• Penetration
Select_Techn
• EF_ID
• Technology_ID
• Pollutant
• EF-Value
EmissionFactors• Technology_ID
• Description
Technologies
Approach:Consultation with national experts
• Activity_ID
• Sector
• Location
• Time
Activities
• AR-Value
• Activity_ID
• Technology_ID
• Penetration
Select_Techn
• EF_ID
• Technology_ID
• Pollutant
• EF-Value
EmissionFactors• Technology_ID
• Description
Technologies
Approach:Second order draft based on comments & additional information of national experts
Including a second draft• Key source analysis• Uncertainty• Report, describing the
inventory
Including a second draft• Key source analysis• Uncertainty• Report, describing the
inventory
• Activity_ID
• Sector
• Location
• Time
Activities
• AR-Value
• Activity_ID
• Technology_ID
• Penetration
Select_Techn
• EF_ID
• Technology_ID
• Pollutant
• EF-Value
EmissionFactors• Technology_ID
• Description
TechnologiesOne day workshop ?
Review of 2nd O Draft, workshop & screening
result in Final PM2.5 inventory
Expected result
• EU25 wide PM2.5 Emission Inventory that is:• Transparent• Comparable• Consistent• Complete• Accurate
• Provides all necessary information on key sources and uncertainties
• Can be used to develop emission ceilings
The expected resultthe EU25 PM2.5 Inventory and the RAINS model
IIASA’sNFR to RAINS
link tableInventory data for
RAINS
• Activity_ID
• Sector
• Location
• Time
Activities
• AR-Value
• Activity_ID
• Technology_ID
• Penetration
Select_Techn
• EF_ID
• Technology_ID
• Pollutant
• EF-Value
EmissionFactors• Technology_ID
• Description
Technologies
For each NFR and fuelEFAREmission *
Time line 2006
• March / April• Consultation with TFEIP expert panels
• Preparation of first order draft
activity data done
emission factors in progress
Pre-first order ready
All comments, additions and corrections can be added here.
For each of the activities, except Road Transportation, in each country we assumed a technology to be applied for 100% of the activity.
Pivot table, using the 'Data', showing all details in the emissions calculation.
Comments
Technologies Pivot table, using the 'Data', providing an overview of all technologies used for all activities in each country with their PM2.5 EFs.
Emissions
Activity data Pivot table, using the 'Data', allowing for a per country overview of all activity dataActrivity data are grouped at the fuel and technology level and might combine two or more underlying activity rates. An example of this is "public electricity and heat production", where public power and public CHP can be aggregated.
Data
A European PM2.5 Emission Inventory for 2000
Maarten van het Bolscher, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Antoon Visschedijk en Tinus Pulles
This spreadsheet contains the first estimates for the EU25 PM2.5 Emission Inventory for the year 2000.This inventory is prepared under contract with DG Environment.
The data in this inventory are preliminary and should not be cited or used outside this project
Sheet ContentsExport from the TEAM database prepared by TNO
Time line 2006
• March / April• Consultation with TFEIP expert panels• Preparation of first order draft activity data done
emission factors in progress
• May / June / July• Consultation with National Experts
• July / August• Preparation of second order draft
• September / October• Discussion of Second order draft
What should be included in the inventory?
• For combustion processes good defaults available. • For all non-combustion processes with PM2.5 fraction is 0-80% of PM10 we
have a poor understanding. Research focus has been PM10, too little and possibly not applicable data for PM2.5 (e.g. the US situation may not apply).
• Excluded resuspension – cannot exclude arable farming• Examples of uncertain sources: handling of bulk materials, construction
sites, diffuse industrial emissions, agricultural management, wind blown dust from arable farming […….In the literature the PM2.5 fraction in PM10 soil varies from 0 – 50%]
• Here to introduce & pick up the “state of the art” and/or consensus concerning agricultural PM emissions – for what is lacking we will make a proposition
PM10 = PM2.5 + PM2.5-10 - but do we know the split?
“ All emissions where the hand of man is involved”
