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Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
Temperature Trends
Surface Water Study
Spencer Schnier
PWPG MeetingNovember 19, 2009
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Study Area
Background
New map will show:
Canadian River
Streams
NOAA stations
USGS stream gages
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Background
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
What is reducing the
level in Lake Meredith?
Decreased stream flow
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
An
nu
al
Flo
ws a
t A
mari
llo
Gag
e
(th
ou
san
ds o
f ac
-ft)
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
What is reducing the
level in Lake Meredith?
Lack of rain
Increased evaporation
Increase in infiltration
Decreased spring flows
Change in water use
Increase in stock ponds
Spread of salt cedar
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
What is reducing the
level in Lake Meredith?
Lack of rain
Increased evaporation
Increase in infiltration
Decreased spring flows
Change in water use
Increase in stock ponds
Spread of salt cedar
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
What is reducing the
level in Lake Meredith?
Lack of rain
Increased evaporation
Increase in infiltration
Decreased spring flows
Change in water use
Increase in stock ponds
Spread of salt cedar
Water Balance
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
What is reducing the
level in Lake Meredith?
Lack of rain
Increased evaporation
Increase in infiltration
Decreased spring flows
Change in water use
Increase in stock ponds
Spread of salt cedar
Temperature
Trend
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
Methods
Results
Conclusions
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
Methods
Hydrologic loss
the percent of rainfall that does
not turn into stream flow
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
flow in
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
+flow in
Inflow +
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond+
flow in
Inflow + Spring flow
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
+flow in
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
+
flow in
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip + Return Flows
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
-
flow in
= Outflow
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip + Return Flows
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
-
flow in
= Outflow + Evaporation
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip + Return Flows
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
-
flow in
= Outflow + Evaporation + Infiltration
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip + Return Flows
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
flow in
= Outflow + Evaporation + Infiltration
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip + Return Flows
What we can measure
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
What we can measure
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
flow in
precipitation
= Outflow + Evaporation + Infiltration
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip + Return Flows
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
What we can measure
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
flow in
precipitation
= Outflow + Evaporation + Infiltration
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip + Return Flows
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
What we can measure
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
flow in
precipitation
Hydrologic Loss = Inflow + Precip - Outflow
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
Methods
Time Period:1940 – 2006
Inflow: Stream gage at Logan
Outflow: Stream gage at Amarillo
Precip: Interpolated from rain gages
Hydrologic Loss = Inflow + Precip - Outflow
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
New map will show:
Canadian River
Streams
NOAA stations
USGS stream gages
Hydrologic Loss = Inflow + Precip - Outflow
Water Balance
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
Rainfall Maps
Average Annual Precipitation (1940 – 1949)
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
Rainfall Maps
Average Annual Precipitation (1997 – 2006)
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
Results
Average Annual Rainfall per Decade
0
5
10
15
20
25
1940 -1949
1950 -1959
1960 -1969
1970 -1979
1980 -1989
1990 -1999
1997 -2006
Av
era
ge A
nn
ual
Rain
fall (
inch
es)
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
Results
Average Annual Rainfall per Decade
0
5
10
15
20
25
1940 -1949
1950 -1959
1960 -1969
1970 -1979
1980 -1989
1990 -1999
1997 -2006
Av
era
ge A
nn
ual
Rain
fall (
inch
es)
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
Results
Hydrologic Loss per Decade
94.7%
96.9%97.5%
98.3% 98.3% 98.4%
99.0%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
1940 -1949
1950 -1959
1960 -1969
1970 -1979
1980 -1989
1990 -1999
1997 -2006
Hyd
rolo
gic
Lo
ss
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
Conclusions
Since 1940…
Rainfall has stayed the same
Hydrologic loss has increased
Less runoff is being generated
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Water Balance
Conclusions
Since 1940…
Rainfall has stayed the same
Hydrologic loss has increased
Less runoff is being generated
Why?
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
flow in
= Outflow + Evaporation + Infiltration
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip + Return Flows
Water Balance
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
flow in
= Outflow + Evaporation + Infiltration
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip + Return Flows
Water Balance
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
flow in
= Outflow + Evaporation + Infiltration
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip + Return Flows
Water Balance
evaporation
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Temperature Trends
Methods
Results
Conclusions
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Temperature Trends
Methods
Objective: Determine if trends
exist in annual and seasonal temps
Dataset: Maurer et al. (2002)• Monthly
• Max and Min Temp
Procedure: annual average max
and min temps were calculated for
each grid point
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Temperature Trends
Methods
Grid Points in Meredith Watershed
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
An
nu
al
Av
era
ge M
ax T
em
p (
°F)
Temperature Trends
Methods
Grid Points in Meredith Watershed
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
An
nu
al
Av
era
ge M
ax T
em
p (
°F)
Temperature Trends
Methods
Grid Points in Meredith Watershed
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Temperature Trends
Results
Change in Max Temperatures (1949 – 1999)
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Temperature Trends
Results
Change in Min Temperatures (1949 – 1999)
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Temperature Trends
Results
Change in Temperatures (1949 – 1999)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
Tem
pe
ratu
re (
deg
rees F
ah
ren
heit
)
Avg Ann Max Avg Ann Min Linear (Avg Ann Min)
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Temperature Trends
Results
Change in Seasonal Max Temps (1949-1999)
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
Seaso
nal
Tem
pera
ture
Maxim
a (
deg
rees F
ah
ren
heit
)
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Temperature Trends
Results
Change in Seasonal Min Temps (1949-1999)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
Seaso
nal
Tem
pera
ture
Min
ima (
deg
rees F
ah
ren
heit
)
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Temperature
Trends
Results
Change in Winter
Temps (1949-1999)
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Change in Temperature Range (1949-1999)
Range (°F)Annual -1.8Winter -2.3Spring -1.2
Summer -1.5Fall -2.2
Temperature Trends
Methods
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Temperature Trends
Conclusions
Max temps are decreasing across
the watershed
Min temps are increasing in some
places and decreasing in others
Temperature range is converging
Lower temperatures mean less
potential evapotranspiration
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
On-Going Work
Lack of rain
Increased evaporation
Increase in infiltration
Decreased spring flows
Change in water use
Increase in stock ponds
Spread of salt cedar
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
On-Going Work
Lack of rain
Increased evaporation
Increase in infiltration
Decreased spring flows
Change in water use
Increase in stock ponds
Spread of salt cedar
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
On-Going Work
Lack of rain
Increased (potential) evaporation
Increase in infiltration
Decreased spring flows
Change in water use
Increase in stock ponds
Spread of salt cedar
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
flow in
= Outflow + Evaporation + Infiltration
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip + Return Flows
Water Balance
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
flow in
= Outflow + Evaporation + Infiltration
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip + Return Flows
What we’ve studied
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
spring flow
Lake
Meredith
stock
pond
flow in
= Outflow + Evaporation + Infiltration
Inflow + Spring flow + Precip + Return Flows
What we need to study
salt cedar
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
On-Going Work
Lack of rain
Increased (potential) evaporation
Increase in infiltration
Decreased spring flows
Change in water use
Increase in stock ponds
Spread of salt cedar
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
On-Going Work
Lack of rain
Increased (potential) evaporation
Increase in infiltration
Decreased spring flows
Change in water use
Increase in stock ponds
Spread of salt cedar
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
On-Going Work
Lack of rain
Increased (potential) evaporation
Increase in infiltration
Decreased spring flows
Change in water use
Increase in stock ponds
Spread of salt cedar
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
Thank You
Spencer T. Schnier
Water Resources Planning
Freese and Nichols, Inc.
Panhandle Water
Planning Area
References
Maurer, E.P., A.W. Wood, J.C. Adam, D.P. Lettenmaier, and B.
Nijssen, 2002, A Long-Term Hydrologically-Based Data Set of
Land Surface Fluxes and States for the Conterminous United
States, J. Climate 15(22), 3237-3251
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