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http://meted.ucar.edu/norlat.php

http://www.comet.ucar.edu/

http://met.no/english/topics/nomek_2005/

… … Meteorology …Meteorology …an Art and a Sciencean Art and a Science

Phil Phil the Forecasterthe Forecaster Chadwick Chadwick

The Meteorological Service of CanadaThe Meteorological Service of Canada

#0177 "Rideau Deformation Zone"

#0594 "Deformation"

The Forecaster’s FriendThe Forecaster’s Friend

NOMEK April 2005NOMEK April 2005

Analysis and DiagnosisAnalysis and Diagnosis

Tempest in a Horse TroughTempest in a Horse Trough

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N

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Looking Upward at the deformation zone

The Deformation Zone: ShapeThe Deformation Zone: Shape

Season:Season: All Year All YearPhenomena:Phenomena: Air Mass and Air Mass and

Circulation SheathsCirculation SheathsTools:Tools: GOES water vapor GOES water vapor

Forecast Challenges:Forecast Challenges: Locate the axis of maximum Locate the axis of maximum

windswinds Identify and predict the Identify and predict the

shortwave troughs and jet shortwave troughs and jet maxima in order to predict the maxima in order to predict the location of the lift and energy location of the lift and energy conversionsconversions

Identify Comma and Anticomma Identify Comma and Anticomma patternspatterns

Identify paired vorticity centersIdentify paired vorticity centers Identify Conveyor BeltsIdentify Conveyor Belts

DZ Satellite Signature – Conceptual Model

Deformation Zone pattern with aDeformation Zone pattern with aCol or Saddle Point in the CirculationCol or Saddle Point in the CirculationConfluent Asymptotes along the axis of Confluent Asymptotes along the axis of

dilatationdilatationPairs of vorticity maxima and vorticity Pairs of vorticity maxima and vorticity

minimaminimaPairs of Commas and AnticommasPairs of Commas and Anticommas

Key Features of the Deformation ZoneKey Features of the Deformation Zone

Dry Surge

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Deformation Zone Conceptual ModelDeformation Zone Conceptual Model

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COL

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DZ Shape Forecast Challenges Identify and predict the Identify and predict the locationlocation, ,

orientationorientation and and shapeshape of the deformation of the deformation zonezone

Relate this information to the vorticity Relate this information to the vorticity center intensitycenter intensity as well as the as well as the curvaturecurvature of of the related axis of maximum wind and the the related axis of maximum wind and the strengthstrength of the related wind maxima of the related wind maxima

Circulation Centre and Relative Circulation Centre and Relative Intensity from the Deformation ZoneIntensity from the Deformation Zone

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Quick Deformation Zone AnalysisQuick Deformation Zone AnalysisThe Common Bozo the Clown Pattern

Very divergent, strong northerly flow pattern

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Straight Deformation ZoneStraight Deformation Zone

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Convex Deformation ZoneConvex Deformation Zone

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Concave Deformation ZoneConcave Deformation Zone

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Bozo the Clown Deformation


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Quick Tricks to DZ AnalysisQuick Tricks to DZ Analysis

From D to From D to Z…Z…

Quick Deformation Zone AnalysisQuick Deformation Zone Analysis

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The Double Vorticity Maximum Pattern

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Analyzing any two of the features yields the best estimate of the third. The vorticity minima can always be inferred.

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Quick Deformation Zone AnalysisQuick Deformation Zone AnalysisThe Double Vorticity Maximum Pattern – Strung together

Analyzing any two yields the best estimate of the third. The

vorticity minima can always be inferred.

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This is a southwesterly Channeled jet pattern.

A northwesterly channeled jet is more common.

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Quick Deformation Zone AnalysisQuick Deformation Zone AnalysisThe Double

Vorticity Maximum

Pattern – Strung together

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Quick Deformation Zone AnalysisQuick Deformation Zone Analysis

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The Double Vorticity Minimum Pattern

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Analyzing any two of the features yields the best estimate of the third. The vorticity maxima can always be inferred.

1 2

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Quick Deformation Zone AnalysisQuick Deformation Zone AnalysisThe Double Vorticity Minimum Pattern – Strung together

Analyzing any two yields the best estimate of the third. The vorticity maxima can always

be inferred.

This is a northwesterly channeled jet pattern which is

quite common.

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XThe Vorticity Maxima deformation zones can also be added into the

conceptual model.

The Associated Moisture Pattern with a The Associated Moisture Pattern with a Northwesterly Channeled JetNorthwesterly Channeled Jet

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The Vorticity Maxima Comma Cloud Pattern

The Vorticity Minima Anticomma Cloud Pattern

Typical DZ ApplicationsTypical DZ Applications

Deformation Zone ExerciseDeformation Zone Exercise

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NNE to SW System DZ….Main Jet plunges south of the cloud pattern. A single upper trof and a cloud system that will translate.Note that the flow is not split.

W to E System DZ with N to S Def ZoneUpstream…Main Jet splits. A significant amount of energy goes to the north… and a significant amount goes south. Slow moving system. Freezing Rain pattern

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Moisture Patterns to FeaturesMoisture Patterns to Features

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Features to Moisture PatternsFeatures to Moisture Patterns

All Kinds of Deformation ZonesAll Kinds of Deformation Zones

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Using Human Artistic StrengthsUsing Human Artistic Strengths Analyze and Diagnose the REAL Atmosphere Analyze and Diagnose the REAL Atmosphere firstfirst Use all of the Use all of the Conceptual ModelsConceptual Models in your Tool belt in your Tool belt Analyze and Diagnose the Numerical Atmosphere Analyze and Diagnose the Numerical Atmosphere

secondsecond Focus and ZoomFocus and Zoom in from the Largest Scale into in from the Largest Scale into

your Scaleyour Scale Fix what needs fixing…Fix what needs fixing… Remember to keep your sense of humour and Remember to keep your sense of humour and

have FUN, Fun, fun!have FUN, Fun, fun! Meteorology is more than numbers… it is an Meteorology is more than numbers… it is an artart

Questions?Questions?

#0635 "Flash Flood"

Questions?Questions?Goodbye Cruel World…

Off To See the Deformation Zone

Margaritaville

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