HS2 in the East Midlands Seminar 25 November 2013 · 2013-12-03 · Nottingham Main Campus, QMC and NG2 business park. Key findings • HS2 has great potential to deliver significant

HS2 in the East MidlandsSeminar

25 November 2013

Sir Brian BriscoeChair & TCPA Trustee

HS2 – A CATALYST FOR A HIGH SPEED BRITAINIan JordanDirector – Phase Two, HS2 Ltd

We have consistently under invested in infrastructure

• The Government has provided for significant capital spending on our transport networks, with total funding of £73bn over the period from 2015 to 2021.

• Our railways will see the biggest modernisation programme since the Victorian era.

• But in spite of this investment, our rail network is still under significant pressure.

The capacity crunch

• Over recent years rail travel has been experiencing a massive growth

• 125 million long distance journeys were made in 2011/12, more than double the 54 million made in 1994/95

• By mid 2020’s key routes will be severely crowded

HS2 is the only way to deliver our North South Railway needs

HS2 will treble the number of seats into Euston from 11,300 to 34,900 an hour

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HS2 will slash journey times

The route: Phase One & Phase Two

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In the East Midlands

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Nottingham Journey Times

Derby Journey Times

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Leicester Journey Times

Released Capacity

• Network Rail is completing a separate piece of work on released capacity‐ ‘Better Connections’

• This, with HS2, looks to transform rail travel in the UK as a whole

• This work will help areas not served directly by HS2 to have benefits from the improved rail system

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HS2 will directly employ up to 50K people & drive delivery of 100k of jobs

Jobs & Skills

Analysis by KPMG shows that the economic benefits will be widespread

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Greater Manchester(Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham,

Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford and Wigan)

Productivity gains valued at between £1.3 billion and £0.6 billion per year; equivalent to between a 1.7% and 0.8% increase in total local economic output in 2037

West Yorkshire(Bradford, Calderdale, Kirklees, Leeds,

Wakefield)

Productivity gains valued at £1.0 billion per year; equivalent to a 1.6% increase in total local economic output in 2037

South Yorkshire(Barnsley, Doncaster, Rotherham and

Sheffield)


Derby‐Nottingham(City of Derby, City of Nottingham, eight Derbyshire

districts and seven Nottinghamshire districts)


West Midlands (Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell,

Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton)


Greater London(33 London Boroughs)

Productivity gains valued at between £2.8 billion and £2.5 billion per year; equivalent to a 0.5% increase in total local economic output in 2037

Rest of Great Britain


Full Y jobs network profile

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Timeline

Date Milestone

2013 • Consultation on preferred route, stations and depots for Phase Two launches

End of 2013 • Hybrid Bill for Phase One submitted to Parliament

End of 2014 • Government’s announcement of final decision on the chosen route, station and depots for Phase Two

• Hybrid Bill process for Phase One continues

2015 • Commence engineering design, environmental impact assessment and preparation of Hybrid Bill for Phase Two

• Target date for Royal Assent to Hybrid Bill for Phase One, containing legal powers to construct Phase One

Next Parliament

• Deposit Hybrid Bill for Phase Two

2016/2017 • Construction on Phase One commences

2021/22 • Construction on Phase Two commences

2026 • Phase One opens to passengers

2033 • Phase Two opens to passengers

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Dr Hugh EllisTCPA Chief Planner

Better ConnectionsClive Woods

Rail is a great success…

• 50% increase in rail journeys over 10 years

• Over 1 million more trains• 1.23 billion rail journeys in

2011/12 (6% increase from previous year)

• Demand increasing by 400 million train journeys by 2020

• Investment continues into the existing network - £24Bn for enhancements and renewals in CP5

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But…• Parts of the network are

already over capacity• Incremental improvements

can’t keep pace with demand• Total growth in passenger

journeys by 2043:–London to Birmingham:

33-81%–London to Manchester:

51-142%–London to Leeds:

41-132%–Birmingham to Manchester:

40-116%–Birmingham to Leeds:

39-111% 24

‘Better Connections’ with HS2• HS2 will alleviate much of the capacity

constraints• Better Connections: Options for the

integration of High Speed 2• Published 17th July 2013

"HS2 provides an opportunity to fundamentally reshape our railway in a way that incremental improvements simply cannot deliver. It is a chance to stop playing catch-up on capacity and instead look at how the rail network could deliver a step-change improvement towards key national goals …This study is part of a wider programme that looks at how the high speed and existing lines might work together as a single network.”

Paul Plummer – Group Strategy Director

Do Minimum

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• Keep train services on existing lines broadly the same,

• Offering reduced crowding and increased choice for passengers

• Potential for Open Access style operations

Incremental Approach

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• Replace long distance services on existing network that are replicated by HS2

• Improved inter-urban connectivity and/or additional commuting capacity

• Potential benefits could be:–London to Sheffield journeys

extended to Leeds–New links from

Bristol/Swindon/Oxford to Leicester/Nottingham/Sheffield (via East-West rail)

Integrated Connectivity

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• More radical concept • All future rail services

planned in a 'hub and spoke' model

• Recasting the existing timetable

• Complement and work in conjunction with HS2

• Create entirely new opportunities to improve inter-regional, commuter and freight services

• Promote modal shift

Working with HS2

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• Toton Connectivity working group and report

• Meadowhall station• Leeds station• Woodlesford corridor

proposals• HS2 crossing point

safeguards• HS2 / NR connections• Capacity north of Church

Fenton

Reshaping your railway

• Key learning from our study is to plan the integration of the existing and new high speed lines

• Next steps will be to commence more detailed planning;

–integration of HS2 and the existing network

–the way to best use the network for our customers

• Network Rail will work with stakeholders to develop proposed services

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Do nothing is not an option

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• Our market studies forecast continued growth in all scenarios

• Many parts of the network will exceed capacity, even with continued investment

• We have undertaken further work on upgrading the existing network;

–Potentially some real benefit –But…hugely disruptive–Does not deliver the scale of

benefits from the new lines• New lines are by far the best

solution

Julie TannerChief Executive, OPUN

& Professor Kathryn Moore,Birmingham City University

Q & A

Tea break

HS2 – Essential for ConnectivityA Boost for Business

George CowcherDirector & Chief Executive

November 2013

HS2 – Essential for Connectivity

Chamber Surveys consistently show

Two key issues for business are:– Skills– Transport Connectivity


Transport Connectivity

Local Employees

Regional Customers

National Raw materials

International Components

Finished Products


Modes of Transport

- Electronic

- Roads

- Rail

- Air

- Port


Rail

Increasingly important local, regional, national, passenger and freight

Growth in passengers by 2020– East Midlands to London 27 per cent

– Nottingham to Birmingham 42 per cent

– Freight growth even higher!

Source Network Rail


Existing Rail Infrastructure

- Midland Mainline - Poor alignment and slow - Capacity issues, particularly

South of Kettering

- Cross Country Services = Slow

- Increasing freight demand and new infrastructure to East Coast, Port and “Electric Spine” to Southampton

New freight depot and East Midlands Airport


HS2 = is about capacity

Capacity = 21st century technology

21st century technology = HS2


Key issues for businesses

1. Access to the region from – London– Other regions– Airports– Ports

2. Image of the region as being well-connected

3. Connectivity within the region and particularly to the new Hub Station

4. Infrastructure to support sustained growth


HS2 itself will give an immediate boost for its economy

Y route = 139,000 total construction job years

Rolling stock employer = 73,500 total job years

Source Albion Economics


George Cowcher, Chief ExecutiveDerbyshire & Nottinghamshire

Chamber of Commerce

Maximising the Economic Benefits of the East Midlands HS2 Station at Toton

Chris CarterTransport Strategy Manager

Volterra Study Key Findings

Commissioned by:• Nottingham City Council• Nottinghamshire County Council• Broxtowe Borough Council• Derbyshire County Council

Funded by the Growth Point Partnership

Study objectives• The case for locating the East Midlands Hub

station at Toton• Quantify the boost to inward investment, jobs

and other economic benefits• The value of improving connectivity to other

Core Cities and elsewhere• The regeneration potential around the

proposed station site

The case for Toton

• £500 million (60 yr PV) extra benefits over Derby Midland as next best option

• £190 million in additional revenue

• Extra benefits coming from being located between Derby and Nottingham

• 8,500 passengers per day (48% new passengers)

Quantified economic benefits

• Of the £70.9bn economic benefits at national level benefits to the East Midlands = £5.4bn (Source: HS2 Business Case)

• Of £15bn per annum economic productivity uplift £1.1bn-£2.2bn to accrue to the Derby/Nottingham area (2.2%-4.3%) increase in economic output (Source: KPMG)

Employment• 89,000 FTE jobs nationally• 13,350 of these in the East Midlands• Opportunities in planning, design, construction, rolling

stock manufacture, operations and maintenance• Valued at £575m pa, 60 yr NPV of £7bn• Half of national employment in rolling stock

manufacturing in the East Midlands, two thirds of which is in Derby.

• Potentially up to 2,500 jobs in Derby• Staveley depot 80 FTE construction jobs and 500 once

operational

Connectivity benefits

• Increase in labour connectivity of 14.3%• Business connectivity of 23.2%• Eight out of ten largest cities connected• Transformational journey time saving to

Birmingham• Transformational journey time saving to Leeds

Regeneration potential• Current land allocated for development at the site could

generate 650 – 875 new dwellings and up to 20,000 sqm of commercial floorspace (200 jobs in construction and 1,500 jobs when complete)

• Major sites nearby including Stanton Ironworks and Strategic Rail Freight Interchange could deliver over 4,000 dwellings and 10,000 new jobs

• Development along the tram corridor 2,000 dwellings and 180,000 sqm of commercial development

• Potential direct links to Enterprise Zone, University of Nottingham Main Campus, QMC and NG2 business park.

Key findings• HS2 has great potential to deliver significant

economic benefits to the region.• Scale of success dependent on connectivity.• Certainty about service patterns on released

capacity required. ‘Any reduction in direct rail services to Nottingham could deal a heavy blow to the City’s economic development and have implications for the wider D2N2 economy’.

• Continued investment in transport up to introduction of HS2 must take place.

Key findings• Station will impact across administrative

boundaries therefore critical integrated approach is adopted to facilitate growth.

• Certainty, flexibility and collaboration key to attracting investment around Toton site (residential ahead of commercial).

• Skills development key to maximising HS2 employment benefits.

Recommendations for further study• Further analysis on the options for capacity

release and the associated benefits• Furthering the evidence base around step

change impacts• Maximising the impacts of Staveley depot

To access the Final Report

[email protected]

www.nottinghamcity.gov.uk

Maximising the economic potential of HS2

Andrew PritchardDirector of Policy & Infrastructure

View from the Top...

“The East Midlands is the ‘bell weather’of the UK Economy”

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England (28th August 2013 )

Economic Growth Opportunities

Manufacturing GVA £13.2 billion Highest proportion of manufacturing employment 20% of total GVA exported Highest proportion of exports to Asia & Oceania

Proportion of Manufacturing Employment 2012 (ONS)

Competitive Advantages…

Transport equipment manufacturing (26,000 jobs, £2.4 billion GVA)

Food & drink manufacturing (57,000 jobs, £3.6 billion of GVA)

Construction (60,000 jobs, £5.9 billion GVA)

Other Strengths…

Power generating machinery

Life Sciences Logistics Low carbon goods

& services Visitor economy

Housing Growth Opportunities…

Plans for 400,000 homes over the next 20 years

Eastern Diamond 3 Cities Northamptonshire Arc Other local growth

opportunities

Investment Corridors

HS2 has the potential to boost our local economies through:

Improving connectivity to London, Birmingham and the northern core cities;

Releasing capacity on existing rail lines for more services;

Creating jobs in our highly competitive transport engineering sector.

BUT…

…we have to get it right:

Mitigate local impacts of both the station & track through excellent design;

A multi-model Hub Station – not a parkway Use released capacity creatively Continue to invest in MML and ECML Give local companies a fair chance to bid for

contracts to build HS2 and rolling stock High quality city centre connectivity to both Hub

station and HS2 itself

MML/HS2 Connectivity: Arup Study

Connections at Hub Station giving direct access from Derby, Leicester & Nottingham heading north

Connection between Nottingham and HS2 heading to Birmingham

Connection between HS2 and MML at Killamarsh north of Chesterfield

With ‘ classic compatible’ trains…

Leicester to Leeds in 50 minutes; Nottingham to Birmingham in less than 30

minutes; Derby to Leeds in 50 minutes…

…transforming connectivity across the midlands and the north

And finally….

The construction of the HS2 line and rolling stock will require large numbers of well trained engineers & construction workers;

We need to start gearing up for this now –if not we will end importing people from abroad

An HS2 Skills Academy? Based in Derby?

Discussion:How can we make the most of HS2 in the

East Midlands?

Documents

HS2 in the East Midlands Seminar 25 November 2013 · 2013-12-03 · Nottingham Main Campus, QMC and NG2 business park. Key findings • HS2 has great potential to deliver significant