HRRRPrimary

FAA-CoSPA

NCEPESRL/GSD/AMB

RAPDev1

RAPv2Primary

HRRRDev1

RAPv1NCO

RAPDev2

RAPRetro

HRRRRetro

Retrospective Real-Time

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones

RAP/HRRR internal verification

NWS-AWIPS

WEB

RAP/HRRR Model Development and Eval

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 1NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 1Aviation Model Development

HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Includes all missed/incomplete runs

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Availability – getting it out

CoSPA Evaluation PeriodsDevelopment and Upgrade Periods

3 month running average

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 2NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 2Aviation Model Development

Jet or Zeus (union)

HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Includes all missed/incomplete runs

Jet (HRRR primary) Zeus (HRRR backup)

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Dual-Computer Availability

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 3NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 3Aviation Model Development

Jet or Zeus (union)Jet (HRRR primary) Zeus (HRRR backup)

HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Excludes two (or fewer) consecutive missed/incomplete runs

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Dual-Computer Availability

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 4NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 4Aviation Model Development

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrraviation/ (hourly output) Feedback from AWC

Aviation specific forecast fields:

Convection (intensity and depth)Ceiling and VisibilityFlight RulesSurface WindPrecip TypeSnowfall

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrraviation15min/ (sub-hourly output)

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Aviation Websites

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 5NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 5Aviation Model Development

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones

CoSPA Evaluation PeriodsDevelopment and Upgrade Periods

3 month running average

HRRR Latency – getting it out fast

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 6

2013 HRRR changes permitted ~45 min reduction in latency

2013CoSPA period

2012CoSPA period

CoSPA periodCoSPA

period

+2:30+1:45

NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 6Aviation Model Development

3-km Interp

2012 HRRR Initialization from RAP

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

GSI HM Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcst

HMObs

ReflObs18 hr fcst

15 hr fcst 3-km Interp

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

GSI HM Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcst

HMObs

ReflObs18 hr fcst

15 hr fcst 3-km Interp

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

GSI HM Anx

DigitalFilter

HMObs

ReflObs18 hr fcst

15 hr fcst

13 km RAP

3 km HRRR

13z 14z 15z

3-km Interp

2013 HRRR Initialization from RAP

GSI Hybrid

Obs

GSI HM Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcst

HMObs

ReflObs18 hr fcst

GSI Hybrid

Obs

GSI HM Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcst

HMObs

ReflObs18 hr fcst

GSI Hybrid

Obs

GSI HM Anx

DigitalFilter

HMObs

ReflObs18 hr fcst

3 km HRRR

13z 14z 15z13 km RAP

Refl Obs

1 hr pre-fcst Obs

GSI HM Anx

GSI 3D-VAR HMO

bs

15 hr fcst

GFSEns GFS

Ens GFSEns

45 minof reducedlatency

Radar Obs05:00z 18 May

2013

0-hr fcst3-km radar

DA

0-hr fcstNO 3-km radar

DA

05z + 0 min

3-km radar data assimilation: Eliminating the spin-up problem

Radar Obs05:15z 18 May

2013

Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts

05z + 15 min

15-min fcst3-km radar

DA

15-min fcstNO 3-km radar

DA

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 10NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 10Aviation Model Development

Radar Obs05:30z 18 May

2013

Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts

05z + 30 min

30-min fcst3-km radar

DA

30-min fcstNO 3-km radar

DA

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 11NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 11Aviation Model Development

Radar Obs05:45z 18 May

2013

Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts

05z + 45 min

45-min fcst3-km radar

DA

45-min fcstNO 3-km radar

DA

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 12NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 12Aviation Model Development

Radar Obs06:00z 18 May

2013

Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts

05z + 1 hour

1-hr fcst3-km radar

DA

1-hr fcstNO 3-km radar

DA

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 13NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 13Aviation Model Development

Radar Obs06:30z 18 May

2013

Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts

05z + 1:30 min

1-hr 30m fcst3-km radar

DA

1-hr 30m fcstNO 3-km radar

DA

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 14NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 14Aviation Model Development

Radar Obs07:00z 18 May

2013

Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts

05z + 2hr min

2-hr fcst3-km radar

DA

2-hr fcstNO 3-km radar

DA

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 15

Radar Obs08:00z 18 May

2013

Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts

05z + 3hr

3-hr fcst3-km radar

DA

3-hr fcstNO 3-km radar

DA

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 16

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesContinued HRRR Improvement in 2013

2013 HRRR2012 HRRR

Critical Success Index (CSI) skill score

Verification June 1- Sept. 30(respective seasons)

CoSPA: Collaborative effort: ESRL/GSD, NCAR/RAL, MIT/LLProvide 0-8 hr thunderstorm intensity and echo top guidance to aviation community

HRRR 15 UTC 08 July 20116 hr forecast valid 21 UTC

VIL

Echo

Top

CoSPA 17 UTC 08 July 20114 hr forecast valid 21 UTC

ObservationValid 21 UTC 08 July 2011

Blend with CIWS

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR use in CoSPA

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 18

10-11 hr fcst

09-10 hr fcst

08-09 hr fcst

11-12 hr fcst

10-11 hr fcst

09-10 hr fcst

Forecasts valid 21-22z 27 April 2011 Forecasts valid 22-23z 27 April 2011

All six forecastscombined to formprobabilities valid22z 27 April 2011

HRRR 11z Init

HRRR 12z Init

HRRR 13z Init

Time-lagged Ensemble

Spatial radius 45 kmTime radius 1 hrUH threshold 25 m2/s2

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 20

Example: 28 August 2013Convectiondevelops in NYCterminal areasaround 16 UTC

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 21

Obs valid 16z 28 Aug 2013

HRRR Conv Prob Fcst (HCPF)02 hr fcst valid 16z 28 Aug 2013

Convective coverage now over much of extreme E PA and NJ

Probability exceeds 40%

Aviation hazard forecasts – all based on RAP and HRRR models (out to 15-18h)

Hourly updated 13km Rapid Refresh model forecasts

(development supported by FAA/MDE, NOAA)

Refreshing from latest observations every hour gives better accuracy

• 2013 - early 2014 – 2 computers running identical HRRR (and RAPv2) – interim solution– Boulder – computer 1– Fairmont, WV – computer 2– Expected reliability at 98.5-99% via coordination of

downtimes for Boulder vs. Fairmont computers

• 2014 – NCEP running RAPv2 (FYQ1) and HRRR (FYQ2)– RAPv2 running in NCEP/NCO testing now– Effort underway to begin testing HRRR at NCEP

HRRR Transition to NCEP

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 23

24NCEPESRL

25

Rapid Refreshfor Aviation, Severe Weather, Energy

Air Quality

WRF NMMWRF ARW

WRF: NMM+ARW ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

MostlySatellite+Radar

North AmericanMesoscaleWRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL’s HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

ClimateCFS

~2B Obs/Day

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s Current NWP Model Production Suite

MOM3Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM+CMAQ

NCEP overview

26

History – NCEP (NMC) Implementations of FAA-funded high-frequency models with aviation focus

1994 First operational implementation of RUC60km resolution, 3-h cycle

1998 40km resolution, 1-h cycle, Cloud physics, land-surface model2002 20km resolution

GOES cloud data assimilation 2003 Change to 3dVAR analysis for improved assimilation2005 13km resolution

New observation types (METAR cloud, GPS-PW, new cloud physics)

2008 Assim of radar reflectivity, mesonet winds,2012 WRF/GSI-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) replaced RUC2013 (Dec) RAP version 2 – improved storm environment2014 (Mar) HRRR version 1 – 3km

Weather Model Development for Aviation – development of the Rapid Refresh

(RAP) and HRRR models– application of HRRR and RAP to

aviation applications– hourly data assimilation of latest

observations to initialize the RAP and HRRR

– Implementation of RAP and HRRR to NOAA operational models at NCEP

– inter-lab/center interactions • Development - NCAR, MIT/LL, U.

Oklahoma, NCEP• Operational evaluation - NWS

Regions/Offices, AWC, SPC, HPC, FAA• Implementation – NCEP (EMC, NCO)

Obs radar21z Sept 16 2010

08z+13h HRRRValid 21z

Weather Model Development for Aviation – inter-lab/center interactions

• Development – – NCAR, – MIT/LL– U. Oklahoma– NCEP (National Centers for Environmental

Prediction – within NWS/NOAA)• Operational evaluation

– NWS Regions (Eastern, Central, Southern, Western, Alaska)

– NWS Forecast Offices (~125 of them)– Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO – Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK– FAA

• Implementation – NCEP (EMC, NCO) at NOAA/National Weather Service

Obs radar21z Sept 16 2010

08z+13h HRRRValid 21z

Purpose of FAA Model Development and Enhancement (MDE) Team

• Improve accuracy of hourly updated weather models, needed especially for increasing aviation requirements.

• NOAA Research (GSD) leads and coordinates MDE project with other labs -- NCAR, NOAA operations (NWS, NCEP), universities, MIT/Lincoln Labs

• Steady improvement in weather model guidance is critical to meet future requirements for National Air Space in NextGen era.

MDE Product Development Team is the focal point for this effort (along with NOAA operations).

NOAA/ESRL/GSD 12 July 2012 29Aviation Model Development

13-km 6hr forecast HRRR 6hr forecast

13-kmResolution

ParameterizedConvection

3-kmResolution

ExplicitConvection

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesKey Advantage of 3-km HRRR

ACCURATESTORM

STRUCTURE

ACCURATE ESTIMATE OFPERMABILITY

NOSTORM

STRUCTURE

NO ESTIMATE OF PERMEABILITY

07 June 2012

5 PM EDTobserved

FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 30

Take-home Messages• NOAA HRRR/RAP weather model grids are the backbone for

most aviation hazard guidance products for 1-18h duration, including– G2G-turbulence, – FIP-icing– Upper-level winds– Ceiling/visibility– Terminal forecasts

• Improvements dependent on transforming increases in atmospheric scientific understanding and computer resources

• Sustained FAA support has given substantial improvement to US aviation weather guidance

31