Really Cool Analytical ToolsMike Harmer & Shelley Browning

Agenda• Introduction: SPC & CQI• Run Charts

• Case Study: Training Outcomes• Case Study: Time To Fill v1.0

• Control Charts• Case Study: Time To Fill v2.0

• Operational Example• Case Study: Internal Benchmarking of Apples & Oranges

• Advanced SPC Theory• Case Study: Analyzing HR Excellence

“Old School” AnalysisNew Management Training Program

Voluntary Terminations

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2005 2006

Problems…

• “Statistically Significant” ?• Real world vs. Lab world• No valid conclusion can be

drawn without knowing stability

Solution…

• Use a Run Chart• Process is unstable and

unpredictable

Types of Variation

Common Cause• Normal, regular, randomness of a

process• Not “good” or “bad”

Special Cause • From a cause not inherent in the

process• Not “good” or “bad”

Variation type determines management strategy

If Common Cause?• If unacceptable, change the process.• If acceptable, monitor with control chart.

If Special Cause?• Investigate source of special cause

Case Study: Training OutcomesManagement Training Program

Voluntary Terminations

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Ja

n

Feb

Mar Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Run Chart Steps…Draw the median Test the variation

Special Cause Tests1. Too much or too little

variability?2. Shift in the Process?3. Trends in the Process?

Run Chart Probability Table# Observations Excluding Points on Median

Number of Runs Lower Limit

Number of Runs Upper Limit

14 4 11

15 4 12

16 5 12

17 5 13

18 6 13

19 6 14

20 6 15

21 7 15

22 7 16

23 8 16

24 8 17

25 9 17

26 9 18

27 9 19

28 10 19

29 10 20

30 11 21

F. Sweed and C. Eisenhart, “Tables for Testing Randomness of Groupings in a Sequence of Alternative,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics 14 (1943): 66-87

Case Study: Time To Fill v1.0Average Time To Fill

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Steps…Draw the median Test the variation

Special Cause Tests1. Too much or too little

variability?2. Shift in the Process?3. Trends in the Process?

Increasing for the last 6 weeks…

40. Wow. That looks high…

What’s going on?

Case Study: Time To Fill v2.0

Average Time To Fill

14

19

24

29

34

39

44

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35

Control Chart Steps:Calculate the mean Add Control LimitsTest the variation

Special Cause Tests1. Exceed Control Limits?2. 2 of 3 in Zone C?3. Shift in the Process?4. Trends in the Process?

Case Study: Time To Fill v2.0Locked UCL, LCL, Mean: Change Successful

14

19

24

29

34

39

44

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35

Change was successful• Shifted to new lower mean• Degree of variability reduced

Begin Monitoring • New Control Limits• Monitor the variation

New Process Born - Continue Monitoring

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35

Case Study: Internal Benchmarking

Questions:1. Where are the ‘Best

Practices?’2. Where is the area of

greatest potential?3. What do A,B,C Dept

Managers say?

High Performer TurnoverInternal Benchmarks

0

1

2

3

4

5

DeptA

DeptB

DeptC

DeptD

DeptE

DeptF

DeptG

DeptH

Questions / Discussion

• Questions?• Contact Information

• Mike Harmer: • mike.harmer @ ThinkTroop.com

• Shelley Browning: • shelleybrowning @ comcast.net

SPC: Analyzing HR Excellence

• Scenario• 4 Regions: North, South, East, West• Weekly HR Excellence Customer Survey• 60 Respondents

• 30 Employees• 20 Managers• 10 Leaders

• 9 Questions• Excellent, Very Good, Good, Fair, Poor• Unfavorable Responses: all but ‘Excellent’

• Table of Results

SPC: Questions

• Questions• Is North above or below average?• Is North experiencing special cause variation?• Has satisfaction improved over the 20 weeks?• What next?

• Table 1

SPC: First Look

• Chart 1: All Customers with 1 or more unfavorable responses

• Findings• North is above the average (bad)• No special cause variation – no expected change• North is a special cause compared to other regions

• What next?• Disaggregate data by customer groups – is the

problem in one of the groups?

SPC: Second Look

• Chart 2: Graph by respondent group (Employee, Manager, Leader) with 1 or more unfavorable responses

• Findings• Employees and Leaders are positive special cause• Managers are negative special cause

• What next?• Calculate control limits separately for each group to

determine if each group is stable and to provide a baseline for comparison

SPC: Third Look

• Chart 3: Graph by respondent group with own control limits

• Findings• Each group is stable within its own control limits• Continue to monitor employee and leader groups• Manager group needs an improvement plan

• What next?• Assess results from managers – where are the

problems? Develop intervention and monitor process.

SPC: Improvement Plan

• Chart 4: Graph Manager responses with separate control limits before and after intervention. Graph Region pre- and post- improvement

• Findings• Improvement Plan worked, Region now meeting

goals.• Manager group can still improve

• What Next?• Best Practice suggestions to other regions