HPS Housing Policy Brief Jan 14, 2013

7/30/2019 HPS Housing Policy Brief Jan 14, 2013

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WEEKLY BRIEFINGHOUSING: POLICY & FINANCE

1/14/2013

Hamilton Place Strategies| 805 15th Street NW, Suite 700 | Washington, DC 20005

STUMPF: NO DOUBT CORNER WAS TURNED, A POSITIVE FOR ECONOMY AND WELLS FARGO

The mortgage-banking giant Wells Fargopostedrecord earnings at $5.1 billion for the fourth quarter of 2012, up 24% year-over-year, finishing the year at$18.9, up 19% from 2011. Wells booked $3.1 billion of noninterest income, of which $125 billion came from originations. The company also adjusted the

value of its mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) upward to $220 million, due to increased costs associated with servicing and foreclosures.

Both CEO John Stumpf and CFO Timothy Sloan said expenses remain elevated due to higher operating losses, partly owed to the recent IndependentForeclosure Review Settlement. The total settlement amounts to $3.3 billion in cash payments and $5.2 billion in additional assistance. Wells Fargo recorded apre-tax charge of $644 million in the fourth quarter in order to reserve against settlement expenses. Total cash settlement for the company is $766 million.

Overall, Stumpf believes the U.S. housing market is headed in a positive direction: There is no doubt that a corner was turned , he said. He remainsconcerned, however, about U.S. fiscal policy and new regulation currently in the pipeline, saying, Uncertainty is the enemy of businessand we simply cannotafford that today.

QUALIFIED MORTGAGE (QM) RULE INTERPRETED AS BALANCED, INCLUDES SAFE HARBOR

Theyve finally arrived, all804 pages. The final QM rules arent expected until thisThursday, but the document released this past week contains much of theinformation needed to interpret the new rules. Overall reactions by D.C. industry leaders were favorable, for the most part. PerPoliticoPro, housing advocatessuch as Mike Calhoun, president of the Center for Reasponsible Lending, said the rules were reasonable . Industry groups, such as the Mortgage Bankers

Association, said they applaud the CFPB for offering a legal safe harbor to lenders.Though, banking analyst Brian Gardner of KBW expressed skepticismthat the rules would alter the market, stating, We doubt it will be a game changer. In its call to investors, Wells Fargos Stumpf was more optimistic, statingthat the new rules were broad, provides clarity, and will help more Americans get more credit, he said. The Mortgage Bankers Association released ahelpfultwo-page outlinediscussing the most common rules.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN THE WEEK AHEAD (Jan. 14-18)

This week will be busy for economic data releases. The core inflation measures of PPI and CPI for December are scheduled for release this Tuesday andWednesday, respectively. Industrial Production and the Philadelphia Fed Survey will provide clarity on the state of U.S. manufacturing this week, and the FedsBeige Book, scheduled for release on Wednesday, are the economic conditions the Fed uses when making FOMC decisions.

Mondaynews will center around Ben Bernankes conversation on monetary policy, recovery from the global financial crisis , and future challenges facing theU.S. economy. The University of Michigans Dean Susan M. Collins will host the speech in an on-campus auditorium. We will hear from a newsworthy ninetotal speeches by Federal Reserve district Presidents throughout the week.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS
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Politics Counts: The Housing Industrys Waiting GameWall Street Journal

1/11/2013By: Dante Chinni"As Washington debates how to fix the economy, one essential piece of thepuzzle, the housing market, remains a drag.

Wells Sees Mortgage Earnings Rise, Marks Up MSRs, Keeps GSE LoansInside Mortgage Finance1/11/2013By: Paul MuoloWells Fargo & Co., posted another stellar quarter of mortgage earnings,booking $3.1 billion of noninterest income in its residential finance division,

and foregoing $340 million of fee revenue by opting to keep certain loans on itsbooks as opposed to selling them into the secondary market.

CFPB Mortgage Rule is Less Restrictive than What Was FearedAmerican Banker1/11/2013By: Katie GillespieDespite widespread fears by lenders that a 800-page rule released Thursday bythe Consumer Financial Protection Bureau would end mortgage lending as weknow it, the final regulation appeared to be significantly less onerous thanmany expected.

Cheat Sheet: What the CFPBs Qualified Mortgage Rule Means to LendersAmerican Banker1/10/2013By: Rachel WitkowskiThe CFPB released its long-awaited f inal rule laying out how lenders mustensure borrowers have the ability to repay a loan, including creating a carve-outfor qualified mortgages.

Homeowners With No Mortgage Offer Clues to RecoveryCNBC1/10/2013By: Diana OlickAs federal regulators and banks argue over whether new lending standards willmake mortgage credit too tight or too expensive, one important fact about thehousing market goes largely overlooked: More than 20 million Americanhomeowners own their homes outright. No mortgage.

Special Report: The latest foreclosure horror: the zombie titleReuters1/10/2013By: Michelle ConlinThe Kellers are caught up in a little-known horror of the U.S. housing bust:

the zombie title. Six years in, thousands of homeowners are finding themselveslegally liable for houses they didn't know they still owned after banks decided it

wasn't worth their while to complete foreclosures on them.

New Mortage Rules: The Reviews Come InWall Street Journal1/10/2013By: Alan ZibelThe day the lending industry has been nervously anticipating has finally come.

The federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has rolled out new rulesthat reshape the U.S. mortgage industry, and are designed to ensure that

lenders dont return to the lax standards that fueled the housing markets boomand bust.

Ten Questions on the New Mortgage RulesWall Street Journal1/10/2013By: Nick TimiraosRegulators issued new mortgage rules on Thursday designed to prevent areturn to lending practices that cratered the housing market and brought thefinancial system to its knees during the past decade.

TOP NEWS AND RESEARCH
http://www.hamiltonplacestrategies.com/http://www.hamiltonplacestrategies.com/http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/178_7/julie-williams-to-join-promontory-1055699-1.html?ET=americanbanker:e13715:1360358a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AB_Intraday_010913http://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/blogs/wells-fargo-keeps-more-mortgages-on-books-1000021529-1.htmlhttp://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/blogs/wells-fargo-keeps-more-mortgages-on-books-1000021529-1.htmlhttp://www.americanbanker.com/dodd-frank/cfpb-mortgage-rule-is-less-restrictive-than-what-was-feared-1055792-1.html?ET=americanbanker:e13755:2307502a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AB_Dodd-Frank_011113http://www.americanbanker.com/dodd-frank/cfpb-mortgage-rule-is-less-restrictive-than-what-was-feared-1055792-1.html?ET=americanbanker:e13755:2307502a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AB_Dodd-Frank_011113http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/178_7/cheat-sheet-how-the-cfpb-s-qualified-mortgage-rule-will-impact-lenders-1055723-1.htmlhttp://www.americanbanker.com/issues/178_7/cheat-sheet-how-the-cfpb-s-qualified-mortgage-rule-will-impact-lenders-1055723-1.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/100370046http://www.cnbc.com/id/100370046http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/10/us-usa-foreclosures-zombies-idUSBRE9090G920130110http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/10/us-usa-foreclosures-zombies-idUSBRE9090G920130110http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/01/10/new-mortgage-rules-the-reviews-come-in/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/01/10/new-mortgage-rules-the-reviews-come-in/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/01/10/ten-questions-on-the-new-mortgage-rules/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/01/10/ten-questions-on-the-new-mortgage-rules/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/01/10/ten-questions-on-the-new-mortgage-rules/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/01/10/new-mortgage-rules-the-reviews-come-in/http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/10/us-usa-foreclosures-zombies-idUSBRE9090G920130110http://www.cnbc.com/id/100370046http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/178_7/cheat-sheet-how-the-cfpb-s-qualified-mortgage-rule-will-impact-lenders-1055723-1.htmlhttp://www.americanbanker.com/dodd-frank/cfpb-mortgage-rule-is-less-restrictive-than-what-was-feared-1055792-1.html?ET=americanbanker:e13755:2307502a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AB_Dodd-Frank_011113http://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/blogs/wells-fargo-keeps-more-mortgages-on-books-1000021529-1.htmlhttp://www.americanbanker.com/issues/178_7/julie-williams-to-join-promontory-1055699-1.html?ET=americanbanker:e13715:1360358a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AB_Intraday_010913http://www.hamiltonplacestrategies.com/


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Who Should Be the Next Fed Chairman?Wall Street Journal1/10/2013By: Phil Izzo

Who should be Federal Reserve chairman in 2014? One in five respondents inthe latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey say it should continue to beBen Bernanke.

Tim Geithner is one of the most important Treasury secretaries in historyWashington PostBy: Neil Irwin

January 10, 2013

With the nomination of his successor this morning, Timothy Geithner ispresumably eyeing the exits at the Treasury building even more eagerly than hehas for the last couple of years, which was already pretty eagerly.

Blackstone Rushes $2.5 Billion Purchase as Homes RiseBloomberg1/9/2013By: John Gittelsohn & Heather PerlbergBlackstone Group LP (BX), the largest U.S. private real estate owner,accelerated purchases of single-family homes as prices jumped faster than itexpected.

The Latest Myth About the Governments Mishandling of the Housing MarketProPublica1/9/2013

By: Jesse EisingerNo matter how many times people debunk the notion that government policycreated the housing bubble, it doesn't die.

Finding Little Evidence Of Foreclosure Fraud, Feds Give UpForbes1/8/2013By: Daniel FisherWith a pair of terse notices yesterday, the Office of the Comptroller of theCurrency basically admitted that its elaborate process for turning up evidenceof fraud in hundreds of thousands of loan files was a waste of money.

Fitch: QM and QRM resolution will restart private RMBS marketHousing Wire1/8/2013By: Christina Mlynski

The recent announcement by the Consumer Finance Protection Bureausintention to issue a final rule on the ability to repay requirement as part of thefinal Qualified Mortgage definition are key milestones for the private-labelresidential mortgage-backed securitization market.

Real Estate Is Far From a Free Market, Report SaysWall Street Journal1/8/2013By: Conor DoughertyThe federal government spends about $450 billion a year on real estate, a sumthat includes direct spending, loan guarantees and tax breaks like the mortgage-interest deduction, according to a report released today by Smart Growth

America, an organization that pushes for so-called smart growth that centersaround denser neighborhoods and public transit.

Big Banks Settle Mortgage HangoverWall Street Journal1/7/2013By: Shayndi Raice, Nick Timiraos, and Dan FitzpatrickMajor banks agreed to pay $20 billion to settle mortgage-related legal disputes,in Wall Street's latest bid to put alleged abuses of the home-lending process inthe rearview mirror.

Question #8 for 2013: Will Housing inventory bottom in 2013?Calculated Risk blog01/7/2013By: Bill McBrideOver the last few years, weve seen a dramatic plunge in existing homeinventory. Will inventory bottom in 2013?
http://www.hamiltonplacestrategies.com/http://www.hamiltonplacestrategies.com/http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/01/10/who-should-be-the-next-fed-chairman/http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/01/10/who-should-be-the-next-fed-chairman/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/10/tim-geithner-is-one-of-the-most-important-treasury-secretaries-in-history/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/10/tim-geithner-is-one-of-the-most-important-treasury-secretaries-in-history/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-09/blackstone-steps-up-home-buying-as-prices-jump-mortgages.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-09/blackstone-steps-up-home-buying-as-prices-jump-mortgages.htmlhttp://www.propublica.org/thetrade/item/the-latest-myth-about-the-governments-mishandling-of-the-housing-markethttp://www.propublica.org/thetrade/item/the-latest-myth-about-the-governments-mishandling-of-the-housing-markethttp://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2013/01/08/finding-little-evidence-of-foreclosure-fraud-feds-give-up/http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2013/01/08/finding-little-evidence-of-foreclosure-fraud-feds-give-up/http://www.housingwire.com/news/2013/01/08/fitch-qm-and-qrm-resolution-will-restart-private-rmbs-markethttp://www.housingwire.com/news/2013/01/08/fitch-qm-and-qrm-resolution-will-restart-private-rmbs-markethttp://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/01/08/real-estate-is-far-from-a-free-market-report-says/http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/01/08/real-estate-is-far-from-a-free-market-report-says/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324391104578227292446942824.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324391104578227292446942824.htmlhttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/01/question-8-for-2013-will-housing.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/01/question-8-for-2013-will-housing.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/01/question-8-for-2013-will-housing.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324391104578227292446942824.htmlhttp://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/01/08/real-estate-is-far-from-a-free-market-report-says/http://www.housingwire.com/news/2013/01/08/fitch-qm-and-qrm-resolution-will-restart-private-rmbs-markethttp://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2013/01/08/finding-little-evidence-of-foreclosure-fraud-feds-give-up/http://www.propublica.org/thetrade/item/the-latest-myth-about-the-governments-mishandling-of-the-housing-markethttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-09/blackstone-steps-up-home-buying-as-prices-jump-mortgages.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/10/tim-geithner-is-one-of-the-most-important-treasury-secretaries-in-history/http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/01/10/who-should-be-the-next-fed-chairman/http://www.hamiltonplacestrategies.com/


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Monday, Jan. 14, 2013

House of Representatives back in session

John C. Williams Speaks

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John C. Williams keynotespeech to the SEMI ISS 2013 Industry Strategy Symposium on the economicoutlook in Half Moon Bay, California.

Dennis Lockhart SpeaksAtlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart speech on theeconomic outlook to the Rotary Club of Atlanta.

Ben Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at University of Michigan ina conversation with Ford School Dean Susan M. Collins on monetary policyand the U.S. economy.

Tuesday, Jan. 15, 2013

Producer Price IndexThe PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along toconsumers. By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipateinflationary consequences in coming months.

Eric Rosengren SpeaksBoston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren speech on theeconomic outlook at a breakfast meeting in Providence, Rhode Island.

Narayana Kocherlakota SpeaksMinneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota speechon Fed actions and the macroeconomy to the Financial Planners Association ofMinnesota in Golden Valley, Minn.

Charles Plosser Speaks

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser speech on the

economic outlook to the 34th Annual Economic Seminar Rochester, NY.

Wednesday, Jan. 16, 2013

MBA Purchase ApplicationsThe Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes.

The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders.This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housingconstruction.

Industrial ProductionI

ndustrial production rebounded in November with notable help fromrecovering from Hurricane Sandy and a boost in auto assemblies. Industrialproduction rebounded 1.1 percent, following a decline of 0.7 percent inOctober. In November, the manufacturing component increased 1.1 percentafter dropping 1.0 percent in October. According to the Fed, nearly all the

decline in factory output in October was estimated to have been related toHurricane Sandy, and the increase in November reflected a post-hurricanerebound in production as well as the solid advance in the output of motor

vehicles and parts.

Consumer Price IndexThe consumer price index is the most widely followed monthly indicator ofinflation. The CPI is considered a cost-of-living measure since it is used toadjust contracts of all types that are tied to inflation.

Housing Market Index

This report provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but theeconomic momentum. By tracking economic data such as the housing marketindex, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance formanaging a portfolio.

Narayana Kocherlakota SpeaksMinneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota speechon Fed actions and the macroeconomy (repeat of Jan. 15 speech) in EdenPrairie, Minn.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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Richard Fisher SpeaksDallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher speech on too big tofail to the Committee for the Republic in Washington.

Thursday, Jan. 17, 2013

Housing StartsThe housing starts report is the most closely followed report on the housingsector. Housing starts reflect the commitment of builders to new constructionactivity. Purchases of household furnishings and appliances quickly follow.

Philadelphia Fed SurveyThe general conditions index f rom this business outlook survey is a diffusionindex of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reservedistrict. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sectortrends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index ofindustrial production.

Jobless ClaimsNew unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number ofindividuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. Anincreasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market.

The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.

Dennis Lockhart Speaks

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart interview at abusiness forum in NewYork.

Friday, Jan. 18, 2013

Consumer SentimentA survey of consumer attitudes concerning both the present situation as wellas expectations regarding economic conditions conducted by the University ofMichigan. Five hundred consumers are surveyed each month. The level ofconsumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending.

ABOUT HAMILTON PLACE STRATEGIES

This report was prepared byPatrick SimsandRussell Grote.

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy and communications consulting firm based in Washington D.C. As a firm, our focus and expertise lie at the intersection ofgovernment, business and media. Our deep experiences in all of these dimensions allow us to serve industry leaders seeking to navigate the paths between Washingtonand the private sector.
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Documents

HPS Housing Policy Brief Jan 14, 2013