Howland Will Case

Robinson v. Mandell, 20 F. Cas. 1027 (C.C.D. Mass. 1868) (No. 11,959)

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Fact Summary• 1836- Hetty Robinson goes to live with her grandfather and aunt,

Sylvia Ann Howland • January 11, 1862- Sylvia and Hetty write respective wills• Between 1862 and 1863- Sylvia’s physician, Dr. Gordon, writes a

letter to Hetty that Sylvia will no longer receive Hetty at her home • September 1, 1863- Sylvia signs another will• November 18, 1864- Sylvia signs a codicil• July 2, 1865- Sylvia dies and leaves an estate worth over $2 million• August 1865- Hetty contests the will claiming Sylvia was not

mentally competent• November 1865- Hetty withdraws August case• December 2, 1865- Hetty sues executors of Sylvia’s will • November 14, 1868- Hetty’s case is dismissed• December 17, 1868- Hetty appeals but later settles with the

trustees

Comparison of the Wills

January 11, 1862 WillSeptember 1, 1863/

November 18, 1864 Will

• Majority of estate left to Hetty• $100,000 left to friends,

causes, institutions• Hetty was also to write a will

giving money to her future children or Sylvia’s causes

• Both were to exclude Hetty’s father from any inheritance

• Alleged amended page that made any subsequent wills invalid

• Half of estate left to Hetty in a trust

• Half of estate left to friends, causes, institutions

• Paid out by Executor Thomas Mandell, Dr. Gordon(Sylvia’s doctor), etc. as they deemed fit

The TrialProsecution Defense

• Dr. Oliver Wendell Holmes• Louis Agassiz• John Quincy Adams• J.C. Crossman• George Morse• John Lowell• George Mathiot• Thomas Mullin• Samuel Swett

• Joseph Willard

• George Sawyer• Albert Southworth• George Comer• James Congdon• Charles Putnam• Solomon Lincoln• George Phippen, Jr.• Joseph Paine• John Williams• Benjamin Peirce• Charles Sanders Peirce

The StatisticsWere the signatures forged?

• Null hypothesis: Signatures are authentic• Count number and position of downstrokes on 42

undisputed signatures• 861 pairs to check and 30 different downstrokes

= 25,830 comparisons• Agreement 20.6% of time• Product rule= 0.206^30= chance that signatures

are identical

The Model

• 0.206^30 does not equal “once in 2,666 millions of millions of millions”

• 20 cases agreed 13-30 times• Model does not fit data at tails• Always assumed independence• Did not look at probability of matches in certain

positions• Did not review signatures made closer in time

The StatisticsPoints of Consideration

ReferencesHowland, S. A. (1890). The Howland will case. The American Law Register (1852-

1891), 38(9, New Series Volume 29 (Second Series, Vol. 3)), 562-581.

Meier, P., & Zabell, S. (1980). Benjamin Peirce and the Howland will. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75(371), 497-506.

Schneps, L., & Colmez, C. (2013). Math on trial: How numbers get used and abused in the courtroom. New York: Basic Books.

Slack, C. (2004). Hetty: The genius and madness of America's first female tycoon. New York: ECCO.

Sparkes, B., & Moore, S. T. (1930). Hetty Green: A woman who loved money. Garden City, NY: Doubleday, Doran.

Wallach, J. (2012). The richest woman in America: Hetty Green in the gilded age. New York: Nan A. Talese/Doubleday.