HOW WELL IS MISSOURI PREPARING ALL

STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE

May 2011

A high school diploma is no longer enough; now, nearly every good job requires some education beyond high school – such as an associate’s or bachelor’s degree, certificate, license, or completion of an apprenticeship or significant on-the-job training.

Far too many students drop out or graduate from high school without the knowledge and skills required for success, closing doors and limiting their post-high school options and opportunities.

The best way to prepare students for life after high school is to align K-12 and postsecondary expectations. All students deserve a world-class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.

Why College- and Career-Ready Expectations for All?

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A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA IS NOLONGER ENOUGH FOR SUCCESSThe changing economy is accelerating theexpectations gap, as careers increasingly requiresome education/training beyond high school,and more developed knowledge and skills.

4Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. ww9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf

Jobs in Today’s (and Tomorrow’s) Workforce Require More Education and Training

The Rise of Middle-Skill Jobs

5Source: Holzer, Harry J. and Robert I. Lerman (February 2009). The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs. Brookings Institution.

High-skill jobs

Occupations in the professional/technical and managerial categories.

Often require four-year degrees and above

Middle-skill jobs

Occupations that include clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair, production, and transportation/material moving.

Low-skill jobs

Occupations in the service and agricultural categories.

Often require some education and training beyond high school (but typically less than a bachelor’s degree), including associate’s degrees, vocational certificates, significant on-the-job training.

Employment Shares by Occupational Skill Level

6Source: National Skills Coalition (2010). The Bridge to a New Economy: Worker Training Fills the Gap. http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/assets/reports-/the-bridge-to-a-new-economy.pdf ; National Skills Coalition (2011). State Middle Skill Fact Sheets. http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/resources/fact-sheets/state-fact-sheets/

Demand for Middle-Skill Workers Outpaces Missouri’s Supply

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Sources: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna Desrochers (2003). Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K-12 Reform. Education Testing Services. http://www.learndoearn.org/For-Educators/Standards-for-What.pdf ; Skills to Compete. http://www.skills2compete.org National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

In 1950, 60% of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less. Today, less than 20% of jobs are considered to be unskilled.

One result: The demand for middle- and high-skilled workers is outpacing the state’s supply of workers educated and experienced at that level.

80% of Missouri’s jobs are middle- or high-skill (jobs that require some postsecondary education or training).

Yet only 35% of Missouri’s adults have some postsecondary degree (associate’s or higher).

Education and Training Beyond High School Is Increasingly Being Demanded

8Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition. http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm

The Jobs of Tomorrow

9Source: Milano, Jessica, Bruce Reed & Paul Weinstein Jr. (Sept 2009). A Matter of Degrees: Tomorrow’s Fastest Growing Jobs and Why Community College Graduates Will Get Them. The New Democratic Leadership Council.

Missouri should be preparing students for the jobs of tomorrow, not the jobs of yesterday – or even today.

A quarter of American workers are now in jobs not even listed in the Census Bureau’s occupation codes in 1967.

Given the growth of new job sectors – most notably “green jobs” – it is common sense to provide all students with a strong foundation that keeps all doors open and all opportunities available in the future.

The Public Agrees That Education or Training Beyond High School is Necessary for Future Success

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To really get ahead in life, a person needs at least some

education beyond high school, whether that means

university, community college, technical or vocational school.

To really get ahead in life, a person needs more

than just a high school education.

87%

89%

Source: Achieve, Inc. (2010). Achieving the Possible: What Americans Think the College and Career-Ready Agenda. http://www.achieve.org/files/AchievingThePossible-FinalReport.pdf

America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment

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Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2010. (All rates are self-reported.) http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2010_eag-2010-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2006)

55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 ALL (25-64)

1 U.S. (40%) Canada (44%) Canada (54%) Korea (58%) Canada (49%)

2 Canada (40%) Japan (43%) Japan (48%) Canada (56%) Japan (43%)

3 N.Z. (34%) U.S. (40%) Finland (44%) Japan (55%) U.S. (41%)

4 Finland (29%) N.Z. (38%) U.S. (43%) N.Z. (48%) N.Z. (40%)

5 Australia (28%) Finland (37%) Korea (43%) Norway (46%) Finland (37%)

6 Norway (28%) Australia (33%) N.Z. (40%) Ireland (45%) Korea (37%)

7 Switz. (27%) Denmark (32%) Norway (38%) Denmark (43%) Norway (36%)

8 U.K. (27%) Norway (32%) Australia (38%) Belgium (42%) Australia (36%)

9 Sweden (26%) Switz. (31%) Denmark (37%) Australia (42%) Denmark (34%)

10 Neth. (26%) Neth. (31%) Ireland (37%) U.S. (42%) Ireland (34%)

11 Denmark (26%) Iceland (30%) Switz. (36%) Sweden (41%) Switz. (34%)

12 Japan (26%) U.K. (30%) Iceland (36%) France (41%) U.K. (33%)

13 Germany (24%) Belgium (29%) Belgium (35%) Neth. (40%) Belgium (32%)

14 Iceland (24%) Sweden (28%) U.K. (33%) Spain (39%) Neth. (32%)

15 Belgium (22%) Ireland (27%) Sweden (33%) Luxembourg (39%) Sweden (32%)

45-64: Missouri (32%) MO (36%) MO (39%) MO (35%)

America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment

12Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2010. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2010_eag-2010-en ; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

FAR TOO MANY STUDENTS DROP OUT OR GRADUATE FROM HIGH SCHOOL UNPREPARED FOR REAL WORLD CHALLENGES

Of Every 100 9th Graders in Missouri…

14Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Student Pipeline - Transition and Completion Rates from 9th Grade to College. http://www.higheredinfo.org

Achievement Remains Low: 8th Grade Achievement Over Time

15Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/

8th Grade Math 1992 2009

Missouri 20% 35%

U.S. 21% 34%

8th Grade Reading 1998 2009

Missouri 29% 34%

U.S. 33% 32%

8th Grade Science 1996 2009

Missouri 28% 36%

U.S. 29% 30%

% At or Above Proficient on 8th Grade NAEP

And Gaps Persist: Missouri’s 8th Grade Achievement Gap

16Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/

Subgroup8th Grade Math

(2009)8th Grade

Reading (2009)8th Grade Science

(2009)

All Students 35% 34% 34%

White 39% 38% 40%

Black 11% 14% 9%

Hispanic 37% 25% 29%

Asian n/a n/a 48%

American Indian n/a n/a n/a

% At or Above Proficient on 8th Grade NAEP

High School Graduation Rates Remain Inequitable in Missouri

17Source: Education Week (2007). Graduation in the United States. http://www.edweek.org/media/ew/dc/2010/34sos_gradrate.pdf

America’s International Edge is Slipping in High School Graduation Rates

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Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2010. (All rates are self-reported) http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2010_eag-2010-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2008 and 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

Enrollment in College Does NOT Equal College Readiness

19Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2003). Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000.

Percentage of U.S. first-year students in two-year and four-year institutions requiring remediation

Freshmen at Two-Year Colleges are More Likely to Require Remediation

20Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2003). Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000.

Enrollment in College Does NOT Equal College Readiness in Missouri

21Source: Missouri High School Graduates Report, 2010. http://dhe.mo.gov/data/hsgradreport.php

Percentage of students at two-year and four-year institutions requiring remediation

Many College Students Fail to Return Their Sophomore Year and Go On To Earn Degrees

22Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Retention Rates - First-Time College Freshmen Returning Their Second Year ; Graduation Rates. http://www.higheredinfo.org/

Many College Students Fail to Earn a Degree in Missouri

23Source: NCES. IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey, analyzed by National Center for Management of Higher Education Systems.

Percent of students earning a bachelor’s degree within six years in Missouri, 2007

The Majority of Graduates Would Have Taken Harder Courses, Particularly in Mathematics

24Source: Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (2005). Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? Missouri, DC: Achieve.

Would have taken more challenging courses in at least one area

Math

Science

English

Knowing what you know today about the expectations of college/work …

A MORE RIGOROUS & RELEVANT HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION WILL OPEN DOORS FOR STUDENTS – AND KEEP THEM OPEN

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Personal Benefits of Education in Missouri

While there may be jobs available to high school dropouts and graduates, they often pay less and offer less security than jobs held by those with at least some postsecondary experience.

The link between educational attainment and gainful employment is clear:

More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment.

27Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010). Current Population Survey. Figures are based on the total persons in the civilian labor force. http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstc/cps_table_creator.html

Personal Benefits of Education in Missouri

Missouri Statistics: Total Unemployment: 11%, Mean Income: $42,213

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Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf Analysis based on author’s analysis of March 2008 CPS data.

Benefits to Education

29Source: ACT (2010). ACT 2009 Results. http://www.act.org/news/data/09/states.html ; College Board. Mean 2010 SAT Scores by State. http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/2010-sat-trends.pdf

Missouri’s Students Taking College Admissions Exams

2010 Missouri U.S.

Participation in ACT 69% 47%

Average ACT Score 21.6 21

Participation in SAT 4% 47%

Average SAT Score 1768 1509

30Source: ACT (2010). College Readiness Benchmark Attainment by State. http://www.act.org/news/data/10/benchmarks.html?utm_campaign=cccr10&utm_source=data10_leftnav&utm_medium=web#benchmark

Students Meeting College Readiness Benchmark

Note: A benchmark score indicates a 50% chance of obtaining a B or higher or about a 75% chance of obtaining a C or higher in the corresponding credit-bearing college courses.

31Source: College Board (2011). AP Report to the Nation.http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/7th-annual-ap-report-to-the-nation-2011.pdf

Students Participating in Advanced Placement and Exceeding College and Career Readiness

Percent of all 12th Graders Participating in Advanced Placement (2008)

THE SOLUTION: STATE-LED EFFORTS TO CLOSE THE EXPECTATIONS GAP All students deserve a world-class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.

The College- and Career-Ready Agenda

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Missouri’s Commitment to Closing the Expectations Gap to Date

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Missouri’s P-20 longitudinal data system regularly matches student-level data across K-12 and postsecondary systems.

Missouri adopted the Common Core State Standards in June 2010.

Missouri is a Governing State in the SMARTER Balanced Assessment Consortium (SBAC), a consortium of states working to develop a common assessment system using Race to the Top Common Assessment funds.

How Missouri Can Continue to Build on its Momentum…

…Realize the promise of the Common Core State Standards by implementing them fully and successfully, taking into consideration the related curricular and policy changes.

…Adopt college- and career-ready graduation requirements, aligned to the Common Core State Standards, to ensure all students are prepared, and eligible, for entry into college and skilled careers.

…Remain committed to the goals of the common assessment consortium and developing a next-generation, computer-based assessment system that will measure the full range of the Common Core State Standards.

…Continue to make progress on the state’s data collection efforts, particularly around making student data available to relevant stakeholders.

…Re-examine the state’s K-12 accountability system to determine how it can reward measures of college and career readiness.

HOW WELL IS MISSOURI PREPARING ALL

STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE

May 2011