How Well Do We Know the Sunspot Number?

[And what we are doing to answer that question]Leif Svalgaard HEPL, Stanford UniversityPoster at Solar in Sonoma (Petaluma), 30 Nov. 2012http://www.leif.org/research/

*The Sunspot Number(s) K-factorsWolf Number = KW (10*G + S)G = number of groupsS = number of spots

Group Number = 12 KG GRudolf Wolf (1816-1893) Observed 1849-1893 Ken SchattenDouglas Hoyt and Kenneth Schatten devised the Group Sunspot Number using just the group count (1993).Unfortunately a K-factor was also necessary here, so the result really depends on how well the K-factor can be determined

Problems with the Sunspot Number(s)In the 1940s the observers in Zrich began to count larger spots more than once [weighting according to size], inflating the SSN by ~20% continuing until the presentThe Group Sunspot Number is about 50% too low prior to about 1885When the above problems are corrected there is no long-term trend over the past three hundred years, i.e. no Modern Grand Maximum

Waldmeiers Description of his [?] Sunspot Counting Method1968A spot like a fine point is counted as one spot; a larger spot, but still without penumbra, gets the statistical weight 2, a smallish spot with penumbra gets 3, and a larger one gets 5. Presumably there would be spots with weight 4, too.ZrichLocarnoThis very important piece of metadata was strongly downplayed and is not generally knownStill used as Reference Station

Combined Effect of Weighting and More Groups is an Inflation of the Relative Sunspot Number by 20+%4442221621230No WeightSDO AIA 450nmSDO HMI LOSGroupsWeighted SpotsI have re-counted 43,000 spots without weighting for the last ten years of Locarno observations.

http://www.leif.org/EOS/Kopecky-1980.pdfspecifically notes that according to [observer] Zelenka (1979a), the introduction of the Zrich group classification with regard to their morphological evolution by Waldmeier and Brunner, has led to increased estimates of number of groups in comparison with Wolfers estimates. Wolfer was assistant to Wolf and later his successor.Five groupsTwo groups

Double-Blind Test of My Re-CountFor typical number of spots the weighting increases the count of the spots by 30-50% (44% on average)I proposed to the Locarno observers that they should also supply a raw count without weightingMarco Cagnotti

Compared with Sunspot Area (obs)Not linear relation, but a nice power law with slope 0.732. Use relation for pre-1945 to compute Rz from Area, and note that the reported Rz after 1945 is too high [by 21%]SARz

Correcting for the 20% InflationRcorr = Rofficial * 1.2 before ~1947This issue is so important that the agencies producing sunspot number series have instituted a series of now ongoing Workshops to, if at all possible, converge to an agreed upon, common, corrected series: http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/HomeThat the corrected sunspot number is so very different from the Group Sunspot Number is a problem for assessing past solar activity and for predicting future activity. This problem must be resolved.GSNModern Grand Max?The inflation due to weighting is now an established fact

The Ratio Group/Zrich SSN has Two Significant DiscontinuitiesAt ~1946 (After Max Waldmeier took over) and at ~1885

Removing the Recent one [+20%] by Multiplying Rz before 1946 by 1.20, YieldsLeaving one significant discrepancy ~1885

KG-factor for Wolf to Wolfer GroupsWolferWolf80mm 64X37mm 20XWolfer saw 65% more groups than Wolf. No wonder, considering the difference in telescopes

K-FactorsZrich Classification:Why are these so different?2% diff.This is the main reason for the discrepancyA still unresolved question is how Hoyt & Schatten got the K-factors so wrong of all groupsabWolf couldnt see most a & b groups with his small telescopeLeipzig

Sheet1

WeightApertureMagn.

mm

ObserverH&S RGOto WolferBeginEnd17.3R21-R21.53

Wolfer, A., Zurich1.09411876192853104.6872832378064

Wolf, R., Zurich1.1171.653218761893180.98686437930.01313562071.57053350313740

Schmidt, Athens1.1351.31291876188380.99709898430.00290101571.4853026141

Weber, Peckeloh0.9781.51031876188390.94764923590.05235076410.3933516688

Spoerer, G., Anclam1.0941.416318761893180.95597878230.04402121770.857909504

Tacchini, Rome1.0591.175618761900250.98359806640.01640193361.9520569512

Moncalieri1.2271.511318761893150.99210163990.00789836011.687807041

Leppig, Leibzig1.1111.26441876188160.99560.00440.9045340337

Bernaerts, G. L., England1.0270.91151876187830.97490.02510.1893583209

Dawson, W. M., Spiceland, Ind.1.011.14051879189090.9697520960.0302479040.5174815452

Ricco, Palermo0.8960.954118801892120.99470.00531.6483267674

Winkler, Jena1.1481.311218821910290.97870124380.02129875621.987105275110880

Merino, Madrid0.9970.988318831896140.98850.01151.3055067315

Konkoly, Ogylla1.6041.560818851905200.99560.00443.0151134458

Quimby, Philadelphia1.441.284418891921330.97758186350.02241813652.2040131686115

Catania1.2481.113218931918260.97880287770.02119712231.7858085395150120

Broger, M, Zurich1.211.016318971928320.99010817970.00989182033.21745046968064

Woinoff, Moscow1.391.12318981919210.960.041.0580124

Guillaume, Lyon1.2511.04219021925240.99240.00762.752988806416045

Mt Holyoke College1.6031.295219071925190.97840.02161.2927862531

Stempell, Hannover1.8151.21211921192550.9960.0040.7905694156028

Schwabe, H.182618675040

Sheet1

Sheet2

Sheet3

Comparing G. Sprer & Rev. A. Quimby [Philadelphia] to WolferSame good and stable fit, showing that Wolfers count had not drifted with time

Constructing a CompositeComparing 22 observers that overlap with each other one can construct a composite group number successively back to Schwabe and up to Brunner:There is now no systematic difference between the Zrich SSN and a Group SSN reconstructed here by using correct K-factors relative to Wolfer.

Wolfs Original Geomagnetic DataWolf found a very strong correlation between his Wolf number and the daily range of the Declination.A current system in the ionosphere [E-layer] is created by and maintained by solar FUV radiation. Its magnetic effect is measured on the ground. (Since 1722)Today we know that the relevant parameter is the East Component, Y, rather than the Declination, D. Converting D to Y restores the stable correlation, especially around the critical time near 1885 where the GSN begins to deviate

What to do about all this?The implications of this re-assessment of the sunspot record are so wide-ranging that the SSN community has decided on a series of Workshops to solidify this.The goal is to arrive at a single, vetted series that we all agree on.Sunspot, NM, Sept. 2011Brussels, Belgium, May 2012Tucson, AZ, Jan. 2013Switzerland, Sept. 2013We have a Wiki giving details and presentations:http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/Home The SSN workshops are sponsored by the National Solar Observatory (NSO), the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB), and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). A proposal for funding of this work has been rejected by NASA [Nov. 2012].

Solar Activity 1835-2011Sunspot NumberAp Geomagnetic Index (mainly solar wind speed)Heliospheric Magnetic Field at EarthActivity now is similar to what it was a century ago

Removing the discrepancy between the Group Number and the Wolf Number removes the background rise in reconstructed TSII expect a strong reaction against fixing the GSN from people that explain climate change as a secular rise of TSI and other related solar variables

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1366.331365.641365.44415696781365.39705738111943.51943.51943.51943.51365.4572079472-0.1243302446-0.09959052211365.600985089

1366.331365.631365.47405390371365.46115128141944.51944.51944.51944.51365.5886060233-0.05078259020.06409390031365.5502024988

1366.471365.821365.74102654191365.74022472241945.51945.51945.51945.51365.81140276130.15715981260.2790734411365.7073623114

1366.831366.151365.83911648881365.84201503521946.51946.51946.51946.51365.79130305560.37055658090.10179031281366.0779188923

1367.261366.451366.07849195541366.08719170211947.51947.51947.51947.51365.96140056520.38920442160.24517666691366.4671233139

1367.051366.351366.2089785821366.223078771948.51948.51948.51948.51366.3946942212-0.10699235620.13588706781366.3601309577

1366.971366.311366.11548816371366.13258738191949.51949.51949.51949.51366.15609771450.0091847413-0.09049138811366.369315699

1366.551366.171365.87311300451365.89201027721950.51950.51950.51950.51366.0981985622-0.3355787558-0.24057710471366.0337369432

1366.361365.871365.63653725091365.65823252551951.51951.51951.51951.51365.6875045753-0.1319482119-0.23377775181365.9017887312

1365.891365.751365.6276381631365.64393388621952.51952.51952.51952.51365.7202040966-0.2210147356-0.01429863921365.6807739956

1365.541365.641365.4884524281365.49044849321953.51953.51953.51953.51365.660004978-0.1086070487-0.1534853931365.572166947

1365.311365.61365.51644955861365.51674599051954.51954.51954.51954.51365.747903691-0.07344293360.02629749731365.4987240133

1365.351365.821365.6373371691365.64193407661955.51955.51955.51955.51365.97180041290.21179607450.12518808611365.7105200878

1365.871366.21366.17088248641366.18408248121956.51956.51956.51956.51365.97000043920.63807542920.54214840461366.348595517

1366.11366.651366.52804588111366.55114754821957.51957.51957.51957.51366.29039574820.31913624370.3670650671366.6677317608

1365.941366.841366.49274949861366.52515002231958.51958.51958.51958.51366.52959224610.0421300675-0.02599752591366.7098618282

1365.681366.571366.24277511821366.28297306991959.51959.51959.51959.51366.4106939869-0.1776204808-0.24217695241366.5322413475

1365.391366.221366.13668599121366.16968385151960.51960.51960.51960.51366.522292353-0.3199880088-0.11328921841366.2122533387

13651365.891365.77992255551365.78152079231961.51961.51961.51961.51366.3822944027-0.3754135802-0.38816305921365.8368397585

1364.861365.731365.60844013061365.57204072821962.51962.51962.51962.51366.0023999649-0.1295775914-0.20948006411365.7072621671

1364.81365.641365.55634546971365.51514614281963.51963.51963.51963.51365.8054028492-0.0588110954-0.05689458541365.6484510717

1364.721365.61365.55764533651365.53054467731964.51964.51964.51964.51365.6941044787-0.10870073210.01539853451365.5397503397

1364.811365.621365.5941415961365.59423861561965.51965.51965.51965.51365.62750545380.03158637860.06369393841365.5713367183

1365.11365.811365.77782277071365.82061707161966.51966.51966.51966.51365.67040482570.19164499220.22637845591365.7629817105

1365.531366.071365.97430263371366.0530949471967.51967.51967.51967.51365.71690414490.33527347720.23247787551366.0982551877

1365.661366.241366.02439749951366.12898772441968.51968.51968.51968.51365.91270127820.07501509170.07589277741366.1732702794

1365.711366.261366.10758897331366.22727837031969.51969.51969.51969.51366.0116998287-0.02025284180.09829064581366.1530174376

1365.751366.191366.10258948571366.21797925531970.51970.51970.51970.51365.97440037480.0442196378-0.0092991151366.1972370754

1365.541366.121365.81801865111365.88921054361971.51971.51971.51971.51366.0334995095-0.2455274797-0.32876871161365.9517095957

1365.571365.961365.91250896691365.92410722261972.51972.51972.51972.51365.85690209510.00775418510.03489667891365.9594637808

1365.341365.841365.65913493491365.63123509481973.51973.51973.51973.51365.7976029634-0.2231177662-0.29287212781365.7363460146

1365.541365.711365.58714231341365.54924289781974.51974.51974.51974.51365.6920045094-0.0363895369-0.08199219691365.6999564777

1365.431365.691365.39456205071365.372059761975.51975.51975.51975.51365.7096042518-0.1231758929-0.17718313781365.5767805848

1365.411365.641365.50535069611365.51424622841365.5191976.51976.51976.51365.7578035461-0.02081332690.14218646831365.5559672579

1365.491365.751365.69313145071365.72572610221365.6451977.51977.51977.51365.95750062220.10216712310.21147987381365.658134381

1366.0513661366.13468619611366.18008286181366.0251978.51978.51978.51366.12399818450.44962644060.45435675961366.1077608215

1366.581366.331366.49474929361366.54684795741366.4181979.51979.51979.51366.29499568090.4031449410.36676509561366.5109057625

1980.51366.411366.50814792041366.56124658711366.5031366.51794312481980.51980.51366.4194938581-0.03016820590.01439862971366.4807375567

1981.51366.461366.55504311421366.59794309471366.4931366.12998572631981.51981.51366.3596947336-0.04545582790.03669650771366.4352817288

1982.51366.361366.14588504841366.16988383241366.1421365.88201295611982.51982.51366.1463978566-0.1602922837-0.42805926231366.2749894451

1983.51366.161366.05919393331366.07009332931366.1551365.72503019431983.51983.51366.2342965696-0.3126236327-0.09979050311365.9623658124

1984.51365.811365.67033378721365.68453002281365.7221365.38606741571984.51984.51365.7929030322-0.1867939154-0.38556330661365.7755718969

1985.51365.631365.50165107531365.52064561941365.5651365.21908575191985.51985.51365.6853046076-0.1859513033-0.16388440341365.5896205936

1986.51365.611365.49795145451365.5170459621365.5751365.20908684991986.51986.51365.6340053586-0.0321032525-0.00359965741365.5575173411

1987.51365.711365.64993587771365.66903149771365.6581365.30207663871987.51987.51365.79500300140.0969876160.15198553581365.6545049571

1988.51366.011365.94260588231365.96180363511365.971365.62604106431988.51988.51365.92300112740.42028684810.29277213741366.0747918053

1989.51366.351366.50784795121366.5269498511366.4731366.20797716211989.51989.51366.04159939090.43444327010.5651462161366.5092350754

1990.51366.461366.41325764561366.43235885311366.4181366.53494125831990.51990.51366.5580918288-0.0444872278-0.09459099791366.4647478476

1991.51366.381366.30566867231366.32466910181366.3421366.62193170591991.51991.51366.2037970162-0.0073794516-0.10768975131366.4573683961

1992.51366.211366.16208338821366.18118275711366.1611366.49094608941992.51992.51366.3273952065-0.3229799548-0.14348634461366.1343884412

1993.51365.851365.88861141611365.90770878321365.851366.07799143581993.51993.51366.0812988097-0.2825318811-0.27347397391365.8518565601

1994.51365.711365.65713513991365.67633080311365.6841365.90801010141994.51994.51365.852402161-0.1530393586-0.23137798011365.6988172015

1995.51365.631365.55964513151365.57874009061365.5951365.83801778721995.51995.51365.6512051068-0.1003989837-0.09759071251365.5984182179

1996.51365.581365.47215409841365.49114842661365.5011365.67803535481365.62704492221996.51365.564106382-0.0664936719-0.0875916641365.531924546

1997.51365.651365.59994100161365.61893626521365.6511365.88201295611365.78502294791997.51365.66600489010.08662375620.12778783861365.6185483021

1998.51365.791365.96210388391365.98110179851365.971366.34296233941366.06698372791998.51365.83270244940.30645883480.36216553331365.925007137

1999.51366.011366.24507488251366.26417485891366.1751366.64592907081366.29395215721999.51366.05609917860.22274680150.28307306041366.1477539385

2000.51366.141366.52534615781366.54434819531366.391366.7509175421366.5269197522000.51366.08259879060.18635026530.28017333641366.3341042038

2001.51366.171366.46215263442001.51366.3031366.54993961131366.43993185182001.51366.0823987936-0.06478583442001.51366.2693183694

2002.51366.231366.54064458992002.51366.3331366.62193170591366.46992767942002.51365.8794017657-0.02620550612002.51366.2431128633

2003.51366.041366.1060891272003.51365.8681366.11398748311366.00699207261365.90900532911365.875901817-0.29990745832003.51365.943205405

2004.51365.91365.92680750142004.51365.6381365.70603228051365.77302461681365.68601838841365.6835046339-0.16818399422004.51365.7750214108

2005.52005.52005.52005.51365.4431365.48905610661365.57505215421365.50102922232005.5-0.0939910552005.51365.6810303558

2006.52006.52006.52006.51365.3561365.44006148671365.48706439311365.41803408292006.5-0.0939910552006.51365.5870393008

2007.52007.52007.52007.51365.251365.33407312521365.36908080431365.30604064182007.5-0.08703930082007.51365.5

2008.52008.52008.52008.52008.52008.52008.52008.52008.5-0.042008.51365.46

2009.52009.52009.52009.52009.52009.52009.52009.52009.5-0.022009.51365.44

Hoyt

Lean

Wang

Svalgaard

Preminger

PMOD

ACRIM

TIM

DIARAD

TSI Reconstructions & Composites

W/m2

Kriv

Sheet1

RgLeifLean

HoytLeifDoraWangLeanPMODACRIMTIM+4.8DIARADKrivovadTSI/dtdTSI/dt

1700.51362.361365.471364.881363.331364.74

1701.51362.491365.481364.881363.341364.75

1702.51362.741365.481364.891363.351364.75

1703.51363.071365.501364.901363.381364.75

1704.51363.291365.511364.921363.411364.77

1705.51363.541365.521364.941363.441364.79

1706.51363.431365.501364.921363.441364.78

1707.51363.451365.531364.941363.461364.78

1708.51363.471365.501364.931363.451364.80

1709.51363.551365.491364.921363.461364.81

1710.51363.411365.471364.921363.491364.83

1711.51363.611365.471364.931363.541364.86

1712.51363.831365.471364.941363.561364.89

1713.51363.981365.471364.951363.581364.92

1714.51364.161365.481364.961363.621364.95

1715.51364.271365.501364.991363.671364.95

1716.51364.441365.561365.031363.721364.97

1717.51364.661365.641365.091363.781365.01

1718.51364.891365.571365.031363.721364.91

1719.51365.021365.811365.201363.891365.03

1720.51365.041365.721365.151363.881365.03

1721.51365.131365.691365.151363.921365.08

1722.51365.111365.581365.081363.871365.02

1723.51364.931365.541365.041363.861365.02

1724.51364.861365.631365.131363.961365.15

1725.51365.001365.601365.121363.971365.12

1726.51365.241365.841365.291364.161365.23

1727.51365.501365.891365.291364.171365.25

1728.51365.381366.151365.481364.351365.40

1729.51365.161365.721365.211364.091365.29

1730.51364.921366.211365.521364.381365.54

1731.51364.971365.471365.041363.931365.23

1732.51364.701365.601365.171364.061365.15

1733.51364.551365.501365.061364.001365.03

1734.51364.531365.471365.071364.041364.96

1735.51364.591365.661365.201364.171364.98

1736.51364.791365.981365.411364.371365.21

1737.51364.841365.821365.241364.221365.13

1738.51365.161365.651365.201364.191365.05

1739.51364.941366.021365.441364.411365.44

1740.51365.291365.561365.141364.131365.24

1741.51365.121365.881365.471364.431365.44

1742.51364.801365.631365.181364.161365.29

1743.51364.631365.561365.131364.101365.13

1744.51364.531365.471365.071364.051365.01

1745.51364.561365.471365.081364.061364.95

1746.51364.671365.471365.081364.091364.91

1747.51364.861365.871365.091364.121364.90

1748.51365.061366.111365.511364.531365.25

1749.51365.271366.141365.531364.561365.46

1750.51365.281366.171365.501364.531365.60

1751.51365.061365.881365.331364.361365.41

1752.51365.131365.851365.301364.341365.29

1753.51365.121365.741365.281364.371365.31

1754.51365.121365.571365.201364.341365.23

1755.51365.281365.541365.181364.371365.16

1756.51365.401365.561365.211364.421365.17

1757.51365.641365.741365.331364.541365.25

1758.51365.771365.901365.451364.661365.30

1759.51365.781365.991365.511364.731365.35

1760.51365.881366.001365.491364.711365.46

1761.51366.141366.231365.651364.891365.27

1762.51366.171365.981365.511364.801365.36

1763.51366.391365.871365.441364.761365.28

1764.51366.451365.811365.421364.751365.16

1765.51366.391365.621365.271364.611365.16

1766.51366.401365.541365.241364.581365.15

1767.51366.501365.811365.441364.771365.40

1768.51366.651366.161365.691365.001365.53

1769.51366.841366.481365.881365.171365.60

1770.51366.791366.451365.881365.191365.71

1771.51366.711366.281365.781365.141365.61

1772.51366.761366.161365.701365.131365.47

1773.51366.431365.831365.481364.961365.30

1774.51366.221365.761365.451364.941365.10

1775.51365.981365.541365.311364.821365.06

1776.51365.871365.631365.361364.861365.21

1777.51366.201366.071365.531365.001365.47

1778.51366.521366.571365.761365.211365.72

1779.51366.261366.471365.811365.261365.61

1780.51366.011366.161365.641365.091365.61

1781.51365.781366.171365.751365.201365.35

1782.51365.261365.831365.481364.941365.53

1783.51364.721365.691365.391364.821365.30

1784.51364.131365.541365.261364.641365.23

1785.51363.921365.661365.321364.651365.33

1786.51364.131366.141365.631364.901365.45

1787.51364.201366.531365.791365.031365.52

1788.51364.091366.551365.741364.951365.64

1789.51363.891366.441365.721364.931365.67

1790.51363.661366.271365.621364.841365.47

1791.51363.431366.011365.471364.701365.70

1792.51363.381365.971365.461364.671365.49

1793.51363.251365.911365.441364.611365.50

1794.51363.201365.821365.341364.471365.36

1795.51363.101365.671365.221364.311365.37

1796.51363.001365.611365.191364.241365.25

1797.51362.891365.541365.141364.161365.25

1798.51362.841365.521365.121364.121365.18

1799.51362.811365.531365.121364.131365.17

1800.51362.751365.591365.161364.181365.14

1801.51362.871365.831365.441364.421365.18

1802.51362.901365.851365.311364.271365.28

1803.51362.921365.781365.181364.101365.16

1804.51363.011365.801365.191364.061365.08

1805.51363.121365.801365.201364.021365.11

1806.51363.081365.681365.101363.891365.09

1807.51362.941365.551365.031363.801364.97

1808.51363.061365.521365.011363.741364.92

1809.51363.161365.491364.981363.681364.87

1810.51363.261365.471364.971363.67

1811.51363.391365.481364.981363.711364.87

1812.51363.481365.511365.021363.791364.88

1813.51363.591365.571365.071363.871364.92

1814.51363.671365.591365.101363.941364.97

1815.51363.971365.711365.151364.021365.03

1816.51364.091365.841365.251364.111365.02

1817.51364.221365.811365.221364.061365.04

1818.51364.381365.731365.171364.011365.04

1819.51364.451365.681365.161364.001364.98

1820.51364.611365.611365.101363.951364.96

1821.51364.851365.531365.081363.991364.95

1822.51365.041365.501365.101364.111364.94

1823.51365.181365.481365.111364.161365.04

1824.51365.301365.541365.151364.241365.06

1825.51365.391365.611365.221364.331365.18

1826.51365.451365.781365.331364.441365.25

1827.51365.611365.941365.441364.561365.32

1828.51365.791366.061365.521364.641365.33

1829.51365.791366.081365.541364.671365.33

1830.51365.831366.131365.581364.721365.24

1831.51365.711365.921365.421364.591365.23

1832.51365.451365.721365.321364.521365.16

1833.51365.231365.551365.221364.481365.17

1834.51365.191365.581365.261364.551365.30

1835.51365.381365.961365.521364.821365.44

1836.51365.741366.521365.901365.211365.57

1837.51365.941366.721365.971365.301365.75

1838.51365.771366.381365.761365.121365.90

1839.51365.671366.211365.681365.051365.79

1840.51365.511366.031365.561364.941365.67

1841.51365.131365.791365.411364.791365.55

1842.51364.891365.691365.351364.731365.35

1843.51364.531365.571365.281364.681365.28

1844.51364.341365.601365.311364.721365.28

1845.51364.421365.801365.441364.851365.36

1846.51364.511365.981365.541364.951365.47

1847.51364.761366.221365.641365.051365.53

1848.51364.831366.491365.841365.251365.53

1849.51364.581366.381365.831365.261365.61

1850.51364.371366.081365.631365.071365.67

1851.51364.351366.071365.631365.031365.54

1852.51364.201366.001365.551364.891365.49

1853.51364.121365.841365.441364.751365.44

1854.51364.071365.661365.321364.641365.38

1855.51364.031365.531365.241364.601365.32

1856.51364.041365.501365.251364.631365.31

1857.51364.221365.661365.351364.761365.38

1858.51364.431365.951365.551364.971365.45

1859.51364.681366.291365.771365.181365.48

1860.51364.731366.361365.831365.231365.56

1861.51364.631366.211365.721365.111365.62

1862.51364.601366.031365.571364.941365.59

1863.51364.621365.891365.491364.811365.50

1864.51364.591365.871365.431364.701365.42

1865.51364.411365.731365.341364.591365.38

1866.51364.141365.621365.271364.531365.35

1867.51363.921365.531365.221364.481365.34

1868.51364.031365.781365.381364.641365.40

1869.51364.221366.131365.621364.881365.49

1870.51364.711366.611365.851365.121365.55

1871.51364.571366.451365.791365.071365.73

1872.51364.601366.361365.751365.031365.71

1873.51364.391366.061365.551364.821365.72

1874.51364.371365.861365.421364.661365.61

1875.51364.231365.641365.671365.271364.481365.50

1876.51364.271365.571365.601365.221364.421365.37

1877.51364.331365.571365.591365.221364.431365.28

1878.51364.341365.501365.581365.191364.441365.24

1879.51364.231365.521365.601365.211364.491365.23

1880.51364.431365.741365.691365.361364.641365.20

1881.51364.551365.951365.821365.501364.791365.30

1882.51364.601366.001365.891365.531364.821365.27

1883.51364.181366.041365.961365.571364.871365.23

1884.51364.141366.101366.021365.481364.771365.35

1885.51363.991365.971365.861365.371364.611365.36

1886.51363.701365.711365.721365.201364.381365.35

1887.51363.531365.601365.601365.161364.291365.31

1888.51363.451365.551365.611365.121364.231365.29

1889.51363.421365.531365.581365.091364.211365.28

1890.51363.371365.531365.621365.131364.271365.35

1891.51363.541365.771365.781365.381364.551365.43

1892.51363.831366.051365.961365.481364.691365.47

1893.51363.951366.191366.041365.621364.861365.59

1894.51363.911366.131366.091365.721364.971365.77

1895.51363.871366.001365.891365.601364.861365.78

1896.51363.831365.811365.831365.421364.661365.72

1897.51363.831365.701365.751365.271364.481365.54

1898.51364.031365.691365.681365.251364.431365.46

1899.51364.121365.571365.631365.201364.361365.44

1900.51364.241365.551365.581365.171364.331365.35-0.02-0.03

1901.51364.281365.491365.571365.091364.291365.29-0.06-0.04

1902.51364.381365.501365.581365.101364.351365.260.010.07

1903.51364.561365.651365.641365.311364.611365.280.140.26

1904.51364.741365.821365.801365.581364.921365.420.170.31

1905.51364.901365.971365.881365.391364.751365.220.15-0.17

1906.51364.901365.911365.951365.591364.951365.49-0.060.20

1907.51364.991365.971365.871365.471364.801365.350.06-0.15

1908.51364.941365.871365.861365.531364.821365.48-0.090.02

1909.51364.991365.831365.791365.421364.671365.35-0.05-0.15

1910.51364.871365.651365.701365.291364.531365.35-0.18-0.15

1911.51364.861365.531365.591365.211364.461365.31-0.12-0.07

1912.51364.921365.501365.561365.161364.441365.30-0.03-0.01

1913.51364.981365.481365.571365.181364.491365.38-0.010.05

1914.51365.101365.551365.641365.241364.591365.500.070.10

1915.51365.421365.851365.751365.551364.911365.620.300.32

1916.51365.551365.951365.901365.761365.131365.950.100.22

1917.51365.991366.291365.941365.911365.281365.890.340.15

1918.51365.881366.171366.091365.871365.241366.07-0.12-0.04

1919.51365.821366.011365.951365.641365.011365.83-0.16-0.24

1920.51365.701365.791365.811365.481364.851365.70-0.21-0.15

1921.51365.691365.691365.711365.371364.781365.51-0.10-0.07

1922.51365.681365.591365.641365.251364.701365.39-0.10-0.08

1923.51365.711365.531365.611365.291364.771365.37-0.060.07

1924.51365.841365.601365.631365.321364.831365.350.080.06

1925.51366.111365.831365.771365.521365.051365.390.220.22

1926.51366.281366.021366.081365.621365.171365.480.190.12

1927.51366.321366.061366.031365.811365.371365.730.040.20

1928.51366.341366.091365.971365.681365.251365.590.03-0.11

1929.51366.321366.011365.911365.641365.221365.55-0.08-0.03

1930.51366.161365.821365.931365.631365.231365.63-0.190.01

1931.51366.121365.661365.671365.501365.151365.50-0.16-0.08

1932.51366.041365.571365.611365.401365.081365.42-0.09-0.07

1933.51365.961365.521365.601365.281364.981365.42-0.05-0.10

1934.51365.991365.541365.601365.391365.101365.530.020.13

1935.51366.181365.771365.721365.601365.331365.660.230.22

1936.51366.461366.121366.081365.991365.721365.940.350.39

1937.51366.701366.411366.251365.931365.661365.870.29-0.07

1938.51366.691366.351366.251365.861365.591365.95-0.06-0.07

1939.51366.571366.221366.181365.851365.581365.97-0.13-0.01

1940.51366.461366.021365.991365.781365.551365.90-0.20-0.03

1941.51366.401365.871365.841365.711365.531365.72-0.14-0.02

1942.51366.371365.731365.761365.601365.501365.56-0.15-0.03

1943.51366.331365.601365.641365.441365.401365.46-0.12-0.10

1944.51366.331365.551365.631365.471365.461365.59-0.050.06

1945.51366.471365.711365.821365.741365.741365.810.160.28

1946.51366.831366.081366.151365.841365.841365.790.370.10

1947.51367.261366.471366.451366.081366.091365.960.390.25

1948.51367.051366.361366.351366.211366.221366.39-0.110.14

1949.51366.971366.371366.311366.121366.131366.160.01-0.09

1950.51366.551366.031366.171365.871365.891366.10-0.34-0.24

1951.51366.361365.901365.871365.641365.661365.69-0.13-0.23

1952.51365.891365.681365.751365.631365.641365.72-0.22-0.01

1953.51365.541365.571365.641365.491365.491365.66-0.11-0.15

1954.51365.311365.501365.601365.521365.521365.75-0.070.03

1955.51365.351365.711365.821365.641365.641365.970.210.13

1956.51365.871366.351366.201366.171366.181365.970.640.54

1957.51366.101366.671366.651366.531366.551366.290.320.37

1958.51365.941366.711366.841366.491366.531366.530.04-0.03

1959.51365.681366.531366.571366.241366.281366.41-0.18-0.24

1960.51365.391366.211366.221366.141366.171366.52-0.32-0.11

1961.51365.001365.841365.891365.781365.781366.38-0.38-0.39

1962.51364.861365.711365.731365.611365.571366.00-0.13-0.21

1963.51364.801365.651365.641365.561365.521365.81-0.06-0.06

1964.51364.721365.541365.601365.561365.531365.69-0.110.02

1965.51364.811365.571365.621365.591365.591365.630.030.06

1966.51365.101365.761365.811365.781365.821365.670.190.23

1967.51365.531366.101366.071365.971366.051365.720.340.23

1968.51365.661366.171366.241366.021366.131365.910.080.08

1969.51365.711366.151366.261366.111366.231366.01-0.020.10

1970.51365.751366.201366.191366.101366.221365.970.04-0.01

1971.51365.541365.951366.121365.821365.891366.03-0.25-0.33

1972.51365.571365.961365.961365.911365.921365.860.010.03

1973.51365.341365.741365.841365.661365.631365.80-0.22-0.29

1974.51365.541365.701365.711365.591365.551365.69-0.04-0.08

1975.51365.431365.581365.691365.391365.371365.71-0.12-0.18

1976.51365.411365.561365.641365.511365.511365.521365.76-0.020.14

1977.51365.491365.661365.751365.691365.731365.651365.960.100.21

1978.51366.051366.111366.001366.131366.181366.031366.120.450.45

1979.51366.581366.511366.331366.491366.551366.421366.290.400.37

1980.51366.481366.411366.511366.561366.501366.521366.42-0.030.01

1981.51366.441366.461366.561366.601366.491366.131366.36-0.050.04

1982.51366.271366.361366.151366.171366.141365.881366.15-0.16-0.43

1983.51365.961366.161366.061366.071366.161365.731366.23-0.31-0.10

1984.51365.781365.811365.671365.681365.721365.391365.79-0.19-0.39

1985.51365.591365.631365.501365.521365.571365.221365.69-0.19-0.16

1986.51365.561365.611365.501365.521365.581365.211365.63-0.03-0.00

1987.51365.651365.711365.651365.671365.661365.301365.800.100.15

1988.51366.071366.011365.941365.961365.971365.631365.920.420.29

1989.51366.511366.351366.511366.531366.471366.211366.040.430.57

1990.51366.461366.461366.411366.431366.421366.531366.56-0.04-0.09

1991.51366.461366.381366.311366.321366.341366.621366.20-0.01-0.11

1992.51366.131366.211366.161366.181366.161366.491366.33-0.32-0.14

1993.51365.851365.851365.891365.911365.851366.081366.08-0.28-0.27

1994.51365.701365.711365.661365.681365.681365.911365.85-0.15-0.23

1995.51365.601365.631365.561365.581365.601365.841365.65-0.10-0.10

1996.51365.531365.581365.471365.491365.501365.681365.631365.56-0.07-0.09

1997.51365.621365.651365.601365.621365.651365.881365.791365.670.090.13

1998.51365.931365.791365.961365.981365.971366.341366.071365.830.310.36

1999.51366.151366.011366.251366.261366.181366.651366.291366.060.220.28

2000.51366.331366.141366.531366.541366.391366.751366.531366.080.190.28

2001.51366.271366.171366.461366.301366.551366.441366.08-0.06

2002.51366.241366.231366.541366.331366.621366.471365.88-0.03

2003.51365.941366.041366.111365.871366.111365.911366.011365.88-0.30

2004.51365.781365.901365.931365.641365.711365.691365.771365.68-0.17

2005.51365.681365.441365.491365.501365.58-0.09

2006.51365.591365.361365.441365.421365.49-0.09

2007.51365.501365.251365.331365.311365.37-0.09

2008.51365.46-0.04

2009.51365.44-0.02

HoytLeifDoraWangLeanPMODACRIMTIM+4.8DIARADKrivova

Sheet1

Hoyt

Lean

Wang

Svalgaard

Preminger

PMOD

ACRIM

TIM

DIARAD

TSI Reconstructions & Composites

W/m2

Kriv Rg

Sheet2

Same as above, except only since 1975

Hoyt

Lean

Wang

Svalgaard

Preminger

PMOD

ACRIM

TIM

DIARAD

TSI Reconstructions & Composites

W/m2

Kriv

Hoyt

Lean

Wang

Svalgaard

Preminger

PMOD

ACRIM

TIM

DIARAD

TSI Reconstructions & Composites

W/m2

Kriv

Lean

Wang

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TSI Reconstructions

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Krivova

dTSI/dt per yr

Something is happening with the Sun?No visible spots formMagnetic Plage Strength IndexSpots per Group decliningLivingston & PennWe dont know what causes this, but sunspots are becoming more difficult to see or not forming as they used to. There is speculation that this may be what a Maunder-type minimum looks like: magnetic fields still present [cosmic rays still modulated], but just not forming spots. If so, exciting times are ahead.??

Sun is perhaps entering a new very low activity RegimeFewer sunspots for given F10.7 fluxFewer sunspots for given Magnetic Plage IndexFewer spots per groupFewer small spotsLess magnetic field per spotThese changes have been progressive and accelerating since ~1990If continuing => possible Maunder Minimum

AbstractA hundred years after Rudolf Wolfs death, Hoyt et al. (1994) asked Do we have the correct reconstruction of solar activity? After a heroic effort to find and tabulate many more early sunspot reports than were available to Wolf, Hoyt et al. thought to answer that question in the negative and to provide a revised measure of solar activity, the Group Sunspot Number (GSN) based solely on the number of sunspot groups, normalized by a factor of 12 to match the Wolf numbers 1874-1991. Implicit in that normalization is the assumption or stipulation that the Wolf number is correct over that period. In this talk we shall show that that assumption is likely false and that the Wolf number (WSN) must be corrected. With this correction, the difference between the GSN and WSN becomes even more disturbing: The GSN shows either a plateau until the 1940s followed by a Modern Grand Maximum [MGM], or alternatively a steady rise over the past three hundred years, while the (corrected) WSN shows no significant secular trend and no MGM. As the sunspot number is often used as the basic input to models of the future evolution of the Earth's environment and of the climate, having the correct reconstruction becomes of utmost importance, and the difference between GSN and WSN becomes unacceptable. By re-visiting the construction of the GSN we show how the GSN can be reconciled with the WSN, resolving the issue. We finally report on recent discrepancies between various indices of solar activity which raise the issue of the very meaning of the sunspot number and of the future evolution [and predictability] of solar activity. This work is in support of the Sunspot Number Workshops: http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/Home

Rudolf Wolf fashioned his Relative Sunspot Number as an index reflecting the importance of Groups as well as of individual spots. The K-factor compensates for differences between observers.

Ken Schatten and Douglas Hoyt devised the alternative Group Sunspot Number as simply the number of groups visible on the disk (scaled up to match the Wolf number on average - the scale factor 12). Unfortunately, a K-factor is also needed here, and its determination is the main difficulty with the Group Sunspot Number.Example of the influence of weighting: On a drawing from Locarno, the weighted count for each group is given in black, while the unweighted, raw, count of each spot within a group is given in red. The weighting increases the Relative Sunspot Number by 16%. Locarno also counts more groups than most other observers, e.g. Mount Wilson. This further inflates the SSN by about 5%.

A re-count without weighting was carried out on Locarno drawings for the last ten years.As the inflation turn out to be almost independent of solar activity, a possible way of correcting for it is simply to multiply all sunspot numbers before ~1946 by 1.20. Such a sweeping change is not to be done lightly, so various agencies producing sunspot numbers [SIDC Brussels; US Air Force; SWPC - NOAA; and many interested, independent solar physicists] are sponsoring and participating in a series of Workshops to provide an orderly transition backed up by the necessary documentation and practical tools for its implementation.

One consequence of the correction is that it does not seem reasonable to talk about a Modern Grand Maximum

The inflation is no longer in doubt and must be accepted as established fact. The only question is what to do about it.

The Group Sunspot Number is already seriously lower than the Wolf number before ~1885. The correction of the Wolf number makes that discrepancy even worse. It is easy to see where people get the notion of a Modern Grand Maximum from. This will have to be resolved.Hoyt & Schatten report a K-factor of 1.021 [=1.117/1.094] as the factor to bring Wolf on the same scale as Wolfer. H&S used the Greenwich photographic data as their 'standard' observer, so the K-factors they report are in relation to that data.

Why such a large difference? As we saw, we expect a large K-factor for Wolf because of telescope differences. Now, the Zurich classification for Groups includes classes a and b consisting of spots without penumbrae. These make up almost half of all groups and cannot be seen with Wolf's small telescope, so no wonder Wolfer saw 65% more groups.

In a similar way we can determine K-factors for all observers covering the critical interval around the 1880s and compare them with what H&S used. There does not seem to be any correlation between our K-factors and H&S's. We do not know why.

The direct comparison of observers that we show leave no room for doubt about what the K-factors should be. We believe, therefore, that we have uncovered the main reason for the discontinuity in the 1880s. Here we show the comparison of four other observers with Wolfer's group counts for the period around the 1880s. The yellow and pink curves match closely, showing that Wolfer had not changed his counting proficiency over that time, meeting the requirements for a firm, good 'standard' observer. The average of the scaled values for these six observers forms a solid 'backbone' onto which we can hang other observers both before and after Wolfer's tenure.Wolf received Declination from several observatories. Four, in particular, provided long-term records. After Wolf's death in 1893 it became evident that there was a secular drift in the Declination ranges and Wolfer lost heart [and some of the observatories stopped operating] in 1923 and did not continue the comparison with the SSN.

Today we know that the relevant physical quantity is not the range dD of the Declination, but of the East Component rY. The conversion from dD to rY involves a scale factor given by H cos(D)/3438', where H is the Horizontal component. Both H and D have secular changes, so the scale factor also changes with time as shown in the insert. Taking that into account, there is no drift in rY [lower panel] and the correlation with the SSN remains strong [red curve scaled to match]. This is especially important for the critical time around 1885 where the Group Sunspot Number begins to deviate (slide 11).

And something is happening with the Sun. The F10.7 flux has from the beginning of the data [in 1947] had a firm and consistent relationship with the sunspot number, so that one could use one as a proxy for the other [we used that in Slide 22]. Using that relationship we can calculate what sunspot number to expect for a given F10.7 flux and compare it with observations. The ratio between the observed and the synthetic sunspot numbers should scatter a bit around unity, as it does nicely up to about 1990. From then on, the observed SSN falls progressively below the expected values. This using both the SIDC and the SWPC [NOAA] numbers [upper left panel].

Mount Wilson Observatory calculates for each day the fraction [called the Magnetic Plage Strength Index, MPSI] of the solar disk covered with magnetic fields outside of spots [so-called 'plages']. That fraction has a strong solar cycle variation; on average the SSN is a function MPSI: SSN = 55 MPSI. As for F10.7, we can calculate the expected SSN for a given MPSI and form the ratio between the observed and the calculated numbers [lower panel, left]. That fraction has been falling significantly during the same time when the SSN and F10.7 deviated from each other.

Ever since Wolf, there has been on average about 10 spots per sunspot group. This is the reason for the 10 appearing in the sunspot number formula SSN = 10*Groups + Spots. Over the past couple of cycles the number of spots per group has dropped by about a third, so groups are losing the smaller spots.

Livingston & Penn have observed the magnetic field at the darkest point in every sunspot [within their observing time window] and find that the average field has decreased by 20% over the same time as the other effects we have been describing. The 'bottom' of the distribution seems to be cut off at 1500 Gauss, below which sunspots do not seem to form.

All of these effects are unprecedented in the observational data and tells us that the Sun is changing in ways not seen before. Or have we seen this before? During the Maunder Minimum cosmic rays were still modulated, the spicule 'forest' in the chromosphere was still observed, so there were healthy magnetic fields, yet few spots were visible. Perhaps they just didn't form as they used to, being an extreme example of the trends we are seen now...