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How we have changed our
behaviour during Covid 19;
Kantar
Purchase, Usage and OOH Panels
data to April / May 2020
Strategic Insight Director Scotland
Our data today is taken from the following panels
Take home Panel
30000 households
Consumption Panel
11000 individuals
Out of Home Panel
7500 individuals
Alcovision Panel
30000 individuals
https://www.kantar.com/Inspiration/Coronavirus
2
How we have changed our behaviour during Covid 19
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020
Contents
Retailers
1.
Categories
2.
The impact of deliveries
3.
Consumption and Health
4.
Beyond Lockdown
5.
3
May 2020 – take-home Grocery growth accelerates, with sales back over £10bn
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020
£10.7bn+£2.1bn
+24% YoY
£9.9bn+£781m
+9% YoY
£10.4bn+£1.7bn
+19% YoY
March 2020: Preparation April 2020: Adjustment May 2020: Settlement
£31bn, +£4.5bn, +17% YoY
4
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
w/e 02Feb 20
w/e 09Feb 20
w/e 16Feb 20
w/e 23Feb 20
w/e 01Mar 20
w/e 08Mar 20
w/e 15Mar 20
w/e 22Mar 20
w/e 29Mar 20
w/e 05Apr 20
w/e 12Apr 20
w/e 19Apr 20
w/e 26Apr 20
w/e 03May 20
w/e 10May 20
w/e 17May 20
Fre
qu
en
cy
Trip
Sp
en
d £
Trip Spend £ Frequency
We are making far fewer trips, with far bigger baskets than our pre-covid norm
Kantar, FMCG Panel, Weekly KPIs, we 17th May 2020
Some signs of a slight behavioural change after the Prime Minister’s address on Sunday 10th
Lockdown
5
Early signs that footfall is starting to increase and basket sizes slowing down
Kantar, Total FMCG, average difference in weekly purchasing habits during lockdown vs. average week in 2019
However, we are a long way from returning to our prior behaviour just yet – it will be gradual
-22%fewer trips
+45%more items per trip
April and May 2020: 8 weeks of lockdown vs 2019 average
-19%fewer trips
+43%more items per trip
11th – 17th May 2020 vs 2019 average
6
Families are still the fastest growing groups, but Retirees now back in growth
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020
4we Value growth £%
+21.6%Pre-Family
+23.1%Young Family
+30.5%Middle Family
+27.4%Older Family
+33.0%Older Dependents
+16.6%Empty Nesters
+7.5%Retired
+17.4%Scotland
+19.0%North
+15.9%East
+21.5%London
+18.8%Wales
+20.6%Midlands
+19.2%South
GB +19.1%
YoY
7
Internet has accelerated again this period, whereas Convenience is the only channel to see a
worse performance this month vs last, as shopper growth flattens
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020
19.1%
11.6%
44.5%
80.6%
15.0%
-10.7%
-30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%
Total Grocery
Supermarket
Convenience
Internet
Discounter
High street
Retailer Grocery Sales Growth & KPI drivers (%), 4we YoY £%
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Supermarket
Convenience
Internet
Discounter
High street
Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Packs
Price per Pack GB HH Population
8
Retailers find extra capacity to meet demand, meaning a further acceleration in
growth for Online
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020
4w/e Grocery Sales Growth YoY %
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
21 Apr 19 19 May 19 16 Jun 19 14 Jul 19 11 Aug 19 08 Sep 19 06 Oct 19 03 Nov 19 01 Dec 19 29 Dec 19 26 Jan 20 23 Feb 20 22 Mar 20 19 Apr 20 17 May 20
Spend Growth YoY%
Total Market Total Online
+4.5m
deliveriesthis May compared to
last year
9
Online has successfully grown all shopper groups from month to month
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020
Whereas Convenience has not kept hold of shoppers from April – price & range barriers?
-11%
11%
-17%
11%
-11%
7%
-12%
8%
-13%
7%
-10%
11%
-9%
13%
-10%
14%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Convenience Ecommerce
Period on Period % change in Shoppers – May 2020 vs April 2020
All Lifestages Pre-Family Young Family 0-4 Years Middle Family 5-9 Years Family 10+ Years Older Dependents Empty Nesters Retired
10
Very strong take-home growth for the main Grocers, as for non-food Retailers
struggle because of suppressed demand and footfall
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020
19.1%
21.3%
13.4%
23.1%
20.2%
40.7%
40.6%
16.6%
58.6%
13.6%
21.5%
72.8%
-30.7%
-20.2%
-3.5%
16.7%
-26.1%
12.1%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Total Grocery
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury's
Morrisons
Co-op
Iceland
Waitrose
Ocado
Aldi
Lidl
Indies & Symbols
Boots
Superdrug
Bargain Stores
M&S
Wilko
Others
Retailer Grocery Value Sales Growth, 4we YoY £%
11
Promotions are starting to return after a temporary contraction, rising +0.9pp
on last month
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020 F
rozen
Mea
t
He
althcare
Ora
l-C
are
Fro
zen
Con
fectio
nery
Alc
oh
ol
Am
bie
nt B
akery
Pro
ducts
Fre
sh P
ou
ltry
+G
am
e
Fre
sh F
ish
Take H
om
e C
onfe
ctione
ry
Ch
ille
d C
onvenie
nce
Take H
om
e S
avouri
es
Ch
ille
d B
akery
Pro
ducts
Ho
t B
evera
ge
s
Fru
it+
Veg
+S
ala
ds
Ho
useho
ld &
Cle
anin
g P
rds
Da
iry P
rod
ucts
Fre
sh M
eat
Sw
ee
t H
om
e C
ookin
g
Pic
kle
+T
bl S
ce
+C
ondim
ent
Take H
om
e S
oft D
rinks
Am
bie
nt S
limm
ing
Pro
ducts
Pet C
are
Bis
cuits
Ha
ircare
Savoury
Ca
rbohydrt
s+
Sncks
Savoury
Ho
me C
ookin
g
Ca
nne
d G
oo
ds
Bath
room
Toile
trie
s
Fro
zen
Pre
pare
d F
ood
s
Fro
zen
Po
ultry
+G
am
e
Packe
t B
reakfa
st
Oth
er
Toile
trie
s
YoY Change in volume % on promotion (pp)
31.9
24.5
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
2
2 A
pr
18
2
0 M
ay 1
8
1
7 J
un
18
1
5 J
ul 18
1
2 A
ug 1
8
0
9 S
ep 1
8
0
7 O
ct 18
0
4 N
ov 1
8
0
2 D
ec 1
8
3
0 D
ec 1
8
2
7 J
an
19
2
4 F
eb
19
2
4 M
ar
19
2
1 A
pr
19
1
9 M
ay 1
9
1
6 J
un
19
1
4 J
ul 19
1
1 A
ug 1
9
0
8 S
ep 1
9
0
6 O
ct 19
0
3 N
ov 1
9
0
1 D
ec 1
9
2
9 D
ec 1
9
2
6 J
an
20
2
3 F
eb
20
2
2 M
ar
20
1
9 A
pr
20
1
9 M
ay 2
0
Volume % on promotion
12
How we have changed our behaviour during Covid 19
Contents
Retailers Categories
2.
The impact of deliveries
3.
Consumption and Health
4.
Beyond Lockdown
5.1.
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020 13
Alcohol is the big lockdown winner while the non-food departments struggle to
find growth, Frozen also grows as the weather changes
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020
4we YoY Growth %
49.9%
23.0%20.4% 19.1%
17.2%
7.0%
-1.9%-4.0%
43.6%
18.6%16.3%
13.4% 12.3%
-0.9%-3.4% -2.4%
Alcohol Frozen Ambient Total FMCG Fresh+Chilled Healthcare Household Toiletries
Value Sales YoY £% Vol Sales YoY %
14
All about bigger trips, more shoppers buying in-home alcohol, and pack prices
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020
KPI contribution to growth (%), 4w/e May 20 vs 19
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Grocery
Alcohol
Ambient
Fresh
Frozen
Healthcare
Household
Toiletries
Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Packs Price per Pack GB HH Population
+4.4%4we Grocery
inflation
15
With nowhere to go, consumers are treating themselves to a drink to help wind down in these
stressful times, as well as embracing the opportunity to spend time with loved ones
Key Occasions | March 2020 | Off Trade
Staying in
as a
Couple
Regular /
Everyday
Drink15.7% Share of Serves
+3 pts on 2019
13.4% Share of Occasions
+2.7 pts vs 2019
3.7 Serves
per Drinker
2.6 Serves
per Drinker
Kantar, Alcovision Panel, 1 m/e 31/3/20 16
The key growth lever has been an influx of new shoppers over
lockdown
4we Sales Growth & KPI drivers (£000s), YoY £%
56.5%
21.9%
43.3%
+26.4%
-16.0%
+20.0%
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 19th April 2020
+1.6 million
shoppers in the
Alcohol category this
April vs last
-40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
Beer
Cider
RTDs
Sparkling Wine
Spirits
Still Wine
Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Volume (litre) Price per litre GB HH Population
17
Alcohol has risen to the top of the charts this month, overtaking ingredients.
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4w/e 17th May 2020
Time at home means more time to cook, but less interest in convenience and personal care
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Alcohol
Sweet Home Cooking
Savoury Home Cooking
Frozen Confectionery
Pickle+Tbl Sce+Condiment
Fresh Meat
Frozen Meat
Frozen Fish
Take Home Savouries
Dairy Products
Canned Goods
Take Home Soft Drinks
Take Home Confectionery
Packet Breakfast
Savoury Carbohydrts+Sncks
Chilled Drinks
Fruit+Veg+Salads
Frozen Prepared Foods
Ambient Bakery Products
Fresh Poultry+Game
Biscuits
Hot Beverages
Healthcare
Chilled Convenience
Frozen Poultry+Game
Fresh Fish
Haircare
Household & Cleaning Prds
Chilled Bakery Products
Bathroom Toiletries
Other Toiletries
Pet Care
Oral-Care
Total FMCG – Market Sectors – Ranked on year on year value sales growth
Alcohol
Ambient Groceries
Fresh & Chilled
Frozen
Healthcare
Household
Toiletries
18
How we have changed our behaviour during Covid 19
Contents
Retailers
1.
Categories
2.
The impact of deliveries
3.
Consumption and Health
4.
Beyond Lockdown
5.
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020 19
The Out of Home market has declined significantly since lockdown began,
driven by fewer shoppers.
Source: Total OOH | 4we 19 April 2020 rolling
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
4,500,000,000
5,000,000,000
4 w/e19 May
19
4 w/e16 Jun
19
4 w/e14 Jul
19
4 w/e11 Aug
19
4 w/e08 Sep
19
4 w/e06 Oct
19
4 w/e03 Nov
19
4 w/e01 Dec
19
4 w/e29 Dec
19
4 w/e26 Jan
20
4 w/e23 Feb
20
4 w/e22 Mar
20
4 w/e19 Apr
20
Total OOH Value £ Lockdown
begins Total OOH Value:
-£2.4bn(-66% vs. March)
Total Shoppers
29 Million(-19M vs. March)
20
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
4 w/e21 Apr
19
4 w/e19 May
19
4 w/e16 Jun
19
4 w/e14 Jul
19
4 w/e11 Aug
19
4 w/e08 Sep
19
4 w/e06 Oct
19
4 w/e03 Nov
19
4 w/e01 Dec
19
4 w/e29 Dec
19
4 w/e26 Jan
20
4 w/e23 Feb
20
4 w/e22 Mar
20
4 w/e19 Apr
20
YoY Delivery Growth – Value £
However, Delivery saw massive growth in April. Making up a large proportion
of total OOH sales.
Source: Total OOH | Delivery | Value £ | 4we 19 April 2020 rolling
£568 Million
(+245% YoY)
Share of total OOH
sales
46.9%(+40.9ppt vs. March)
21
This growth in Delivery has been driven by an influx of new shoppers.
Source: Total OOH | Delivery | Incremental Shoppers | 4we 19 April 2020 vs. 4we 22 March 2020
4we 22 March 2020
17% of buyers had
not purchased
delivery in the 6
months prior.
4we 19 April 2020
43% of buyers had
not purchased
delivery in the 6
months prior.
6 Million Shoppers 11.7 Million Shoppers
22
How we have changed our behaviour during Covid 19
Contents
Retailers
1.
Categories
2.
The impact of deliveries
3.
Consumption and Health
4.
Beyond Lockdown
5.
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020 23
What is the impact on our health…
That’s more than £270m per
week in additional spend!
160mMore Lunches
180mMore Snacks
That’s more than £145m per
week in additional spend!
25
lockdown month 1 - calories, saturates and sodium are all rising faster.
Sugar is on par but its usually in decline
17.9
23.2
17.8
21.4
27.9
23.6
25.3
Volume Calories Sugar Saturates Sodium Protein Fibre
% Change in Nutrient Volume YOY4 we Mar 20 vs Mar 19
Percentage Change in Nutrient Volumes YOY | 4 w/e Data Periods | Total Take Home Food & Drink Market 26
Health growth has plateaued since the spring of 2018; since then it looks like a
trend that is going to continue to fall.
Millions of servings chosen for health | Total Food & Drink
Total IH/CO | 52 w/e 23 Feb 2020
Total
Health
Health still
accounts for
nearly 1/3rd of all
food servings
27
How we have changed our behaviour during Covid 19
28
Contents
Retailers
1.
Categories
2.
The impact of deliveries
3.
Consumption and Health
4.
Beyond Lockdown
5.
Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020
Covid 19 has been the biggest change to
our fundamental shopping and
consumption behaviour in recent memory
but how long will these changes last?
How will this disruption continue to change
consumer needs and behaviour? Expect
different trajectories for different
categories and channels post lockdown.
What should brands and retailers be doing in
response to these changes in occasions and
health?
Will there be a ‘mini-boom’ as we return to
the things we have missed or with low
consumer confidence will it be a more
cautious consumer spending and
recessionary behaviour.
29