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7/31/2019 How We Are Fooled
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7/31/2019 How We Are Fooled
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V_NG_ML ENXA
Xba lqpj` nc m ha`mzjeg pxmxa jp paexjlaexmd meh pmh$ meh jxp gnsarelaex jp jlvarjdah
,Barlme Bappa
Xba lqpj` ncBnw Wa Mra Cnndahavrappap Bappap noparsmxjne,,jx jp `ampadappdz paexjlaexmd meh
pmh% Mx xba pmla xjla$ xba vja`a kqxmvnpap m pzlondj` ravrapaexmxjne nc hjsarpjne wjxb xbmx
paexjlaexmdjxz meh pmheapp xn ravrapaex xba pxrmegadz `mracraa pxmxa nc ha`mz wa cjeh nqrpadsap
avarjae`jeg xnhmz je xba Qejxah Pxmxap% Omddnnep mvvamr meh hjpmvvamr xbrnqgbnqx xba wnri$
meh xba `nexrnd nsar xbapa omddnnep rmjpap }qapxjnep monqx bnw lq`b `nexrnd wa mp `jxj{aep
bmsa nsar xba lzrjmh hjsarpjnep xbmx vran``qvz nqr vqodj` `qdxqra meh vrjsmxa djsap% Jejxjmddz xba
mqhjae`a laloarp mra craa xn avarjlaex wjxb xba omddnnep je xba `nexax nc xba wnri$ oqx xbaz
lqpx asaexqmddz `necrnex xba jddqpjnep nc `nexrnd xbjp craahnl lmz bmsa `ramxah% Bappa ljgbx
pqggapx xbmx xba paexjlaexmd meh pmh }qmdjxz nc xba lqpj` jp jeap`mvmoda gjsae xba `qrraex
vndjxj`md pjxqmxjne$ oqx Bnw Wa Mra Cnndah mpip; Jc wa mra lmha mwmra nc xba wmz xbmx hjsarxjeg
7/31/2019 How We Are Fooled
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V_ADJLJEM_Z JEPX_Q@XJNEP CN_ MDD VA_CN_LA_P
Am`b varcnrlar wjdd oagje xba vja`a pjxxjeg je xba mqhjae`a wjxb vnppappjne nc m hjccaraex `ndnrahomddnne% Mx xba pva`jcj` xjla mvvnjexah cnr am`b varcnrlar$ ba.pba wjdd rjpa crnl xbajr pamx je xbamqhjae`a meh djgbxdz xnpp xbajr omddnne jexn xba mjr% Crnl xbmx vnjex$ pva`jcj` jepxrq`xjnep nevarcnrlme`a smrz crnl varcnrlar xn varcnrlar$ oqx m caw vrje`jvdap ralmjep xba pmla;
=% Jc znqr omddnne$ "xba `ndnrah omddnne znq nrjgjemddz bmh vnppappjne nc*$ asar ampap xn oa jexba mjr cnr m hqrmxjne nc lnra xbme =,? pa`nehp$ znq mra xn pxnv vdmzjeg znqr jepxrqlaex$ pxnv
wmdijeg$ "jc mvvdj`moda*$ meh pxmeh pxjdd$ pxmrjeg vnjexahdz mx znqr omddnne% Jc meh wbae znqromddnne raxqrep xn xba mjr$ znq mra xn rapqla vdmzjeg znqr jepxrqlaex$ meh jc mvvdj`moda$ wmdijeg%Xbjp vrje`jvda ralmjep je acca`x cnr mdd varcnrlarp cnr xba hqrmxjne nc xbajr m`xjsa vmrxj`jvmxjne jexba vja`a% Xbjp wjdd ra}qjra m arxmje mlnqex nc sjgjdme`a% Vdampa vmz `dnpa mxxaexjne xn znqr
omddnne xbrnqgb xba hqrmxjne nc xba vja`a%
?% Jc mx mez xjla znqr omddnne jp vnvvah meh hacdmxah$ pxnv vdmzjeg jllahjmxadz% Pxmra odmeidzmx xba mram je wbj`b xba omddnne wmp hacdmxah meh wmjx cnr xba varcnrlar je nexrnd nc xba
ada`xrnej`p xn odnw qv m eaw nea% Ne`a ba.pba bmp hnea xbjp$ xbaz wjdd wmdi nsar xn znq meh gjsaznq xba eaw omddnne% Oagje vdmzjeg.pjegjeg mp oacnra% Jc oz xba xjla znq ra`ajsa xba eawomddnne xba `qa cnr znq xn pxnv varcnrljeg meh pjx hnwe bmp vmppah$ pjlvdz wmjx xn ra`ajsa znqromddnne meh xbae gn meh pjx hnwe ne`a znq bmsa ra`ajsah jx%
7/31/2019 How We Are Fooled
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ADA@X_NEJ@ PNQEHP JEPX_Q@XJNEP
Znq mra xn oagje xba vja`a oz xnppjeg znqr omddnne jexn xba mqhjae`a meh vrappjeg vdmz ne xbaada`xrnej` pnqehp vmrx% Xba ada`xrnej`p pnqeh vmrx jp xn oa hjccqpah je pxaran% Xbrnqgbnqx xba
wnri$ lnejxnr xba sndqla nc xba ada`xrnej` pnqehp vmrx meh mhkqpx ljejlmddz mp ea`appmrz pn mpxn aepqra m gnnh omdme`a oaxwaae xba ada`xrnej`p pnqehp vdmzom`i meh xba rapx nc xba aepaloda%_acarae`a m vrasjnqp ra`nrhjeg nc xba wnri cnr pva`jcj` je}qjrjap ne wbmx me mvvrnvrjmxa omdme`a
oaxwaae xba vdmzom`i meh xba rapx nc xba aepaloda pbnqdh oa% Nc `nqrpa$ xbrnqgbnqx xba wnri$wbae znqr omddnne jp je xba mqhjae`a$ mdwmzp oa vmzjeg mxxaexjne xn znqr omddnne$ meh noparsaxba rqdap mppn`jmxah wjxb jx mp nqxdjeah je xba Vradjljemrz Jepxrq`x jnep cnr Mdd Varcnrlarp% Jc mxmez vnjex znqr omddnne jp vnvvah meh hacdmxah$ jllahjmxadz pxnv xba vdmzom`i nc xba ada`xrnej`pvmrx$ odnw qv m eaw omddnne$ xnpp jx jexn xba mqhjae`a$ meh rapqla vdmzom`i% Oadnw jp m xmoda ncasaexp meh jepxrq`xjnep mp xbaz radmxa xn xba xjladjea nc xba vja`a%
Xmoda nc AsaexpXjlap mra pnlaxjlap mvvrnjlmxa meh mra mdwmzp gjsae je ljeqxap meh pa`nehp je hqrmxjne
admvpah je xba ada`xrnej` pnqehp vmrx$ enx xnxmd xjla admvpah% Hqa xn xba qevrahj`xmoda emxqra ncxba mqhjae`a ram`xjne xn znqr omddnne$ xnxmd xjla admvpah jp qeienwe var am`b hjp`raxavarcnrlme`a% Jepxrq`xjnep cnr xjla asaexp pva`jcj`mddz varxmjejeg xn znqr vmrx mra lmriah je
ondh%
66;86,6=;66 Vjmejpx xnppap omddnne jexn mqhjae`a% Ba.pba oagjep xn vdmz%
60;66 Pnvrmen xnppap omddnne jexn mqhjae`a meh oagjep pjegjeg%
60;81,68;66 @dmrjeaxjpx xnppap omddnne jexn mqhjae`a meh oagjep vdmzjeg%
7/31/2019 How We Are Fooled
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VJMEN JEPX_Q@XJNEP
_abamrpmd
Vrm`xj`a znqr vmrx wjxb xba hjmgrml vrnsjhah% Lalnrj{a xba lqpj` cnr mdd rabamrpmd daxxarp%Pva`jcj`mddz$ cnr rabamrpmd daxxar @$ lalnrj{a mdd xba vnppjoda `bnrhp meh oa moda xn vdmz mdd xbacnqr `bnrh vmxxarep wjxb smrzjeg lnharmxa hzemlj`p mp znq paa cjx% Mdpn vrm`xj`a smrzjeg xbarbzxbl meh xalvn$ mp jehj`mxah oz xba hjmgrml%
Varcnrlme`a
Qpa en pbaax lqpj` nr jepxrq`xjnep% Oagje xba vja`a pjxxjeg je xba mqhjae`a% Wbae znq bamr xbajexrnhq`xjne nc xba pnqeh nc bjdhrae vdmzjeg je xba ada`xrnej`p vmrx mcxar mvvrnjlmxadz nealjeqxa$ rjpa crnl znqr `bmjr$ xnpp znqr omddnne jexn xba mqhjae`a$ meh oagje wmdijeg xnwmrh xbavjmen% Jc znqr omddnne `ampap xn oa je xba mjr cnr m hqrmxjne nc lnra xbme =,? pa`nehp asae hqrjegxba varjnh nc xjla jx xmiap znq xn wmdi xn xba vjmen$ cnddnw xba gqjhadjeap crnl xba VradjljemrzJepxrq`xjnep cnr Mdd Varcnrlarp vrnsjhah$ pxnv wmdijeg$ meh pxmra vnjexahdz mx znqr omddnne%
Ne`a znq hn asaexqmddz lmia jx xn xba vjmen$ havrapp xba vahmd meh damsa jx havrappah cnr xba
hqrmxjne nc xba vja`a "qedapp znqr omddnne `ampap xn oa je xba mjr cnr lnra xbme =,? pa`nehp mxmez xjla$ je wbj`b `mpa znq mra xn enx nedz pxnv vdmzjeg$ oqx mdpn xmia znqr cnnx nc xba vahmd%Qvne rapqljeg vdmzjeg$ iaav xba vahmd havrappah `nexjeqnqpdz mp oacnra*%
Vdmz rabamrpmd daxxar M "xbraa xjlap*$ xbae vdmz rabamrpmd daxxar O$ meh cnr xba ralmjejeg hqrmxjnenc xba vja`a$ jexarvrax rabamrpmd daxxar @ ravamxahdz$ wjxb smrzjeg lnharmxa hzemlj`p mp znq paacjx% "Mp var xba hjmgrml vrnsjhah$ smrz xalvn meh rbzxbl mp wadd*% Hn enx oa ne`areah wjxb
pze`brnej{jeg wjxb mez nc xba nxbar varcnrlarp%
Nc `nqrpa$ mdwmzp oa vmzjeg mxxaexjne xn znqr omddnne$ meh noparsa xba rqdap mppn`jmxah wjxb jxmp nqxdjeah je xba Vradjljemrz Jepxrq`xjnep cnr Mdd Varcnrlarp vrnsjhah monsa% Mcxar znq bmsa
7/31/2019 How We Are Fooled
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7/31/2019 How We Are Fooled
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PNV_MEN JEPX_Q@XJNEP
_abamrpmd
Vrm`xj`a znqr vmrx wjxb xba hjmgrml vrnsjhah% Cnddnw xba djeap je mez wmz znq `bnnpa$ mdwmzplnsjeg cnrwmrh% Caad craa xn mhh carlmxmp meh vmqpap je znqr pjegjeg xbrnqgbnqx% Hn enx caadnodjgah xn vrm`xj`a.lalnrj{a asarz pjegda vnppjoda varlqxmxjne% Xba hjmgrml jp laradzvrnsjhah mp m qpacqd wmz xn vrm`xj`a$ meh m lamep nc `nllqej`mxjeg m gaearmd paepa nc wbmx znqrvmrx pbnqdh pnqeh djia% Lalnrj{a xba Pxmrx djea je jxp aexjraxz meh oa`nla cmljdjmr aenqgb
wjxb xba smrjnqp varlqxmxjnep nc jx lmvvah nqx ne xba hjmgrml xn oa moda xn jlvrnsjpa je mlmeear `nepjpxaex wjxb xba lqpj`md lmxarjmd vrnsjhah je xba hjmgrml% Mhh hzemlj` `nexnqrp xnam`b djea mp znq paa cjx%
Varcnrlme`a
Oagje xba vja`a pjxxjeg je xba mqhjae`a% Cnr xba cjrpx mvvrnjlmxadz ? ljeqxap xbmx xba vjmejpx jpvdmzjeg$ ba.pba wjdd oa vdmzjeg xba cnddnwjeg ravamxahdz "wjxb smrzjeg rbzxbl*;
Djpxae cnr xba vjmejpxp vmxxare xn bmega wjxb xba cnddnwjeg bnrh ;
M b xb o b h vd h c xb cj x xj o xb vj j x j c x
7/31/2019 How We Are Fooled
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7/31/2019 How We Are Fooled
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@DM_JEAX JEPX_Q@XJNEP
_abamrpmd
Vrm`xj`a znqr vmrx wjxb xba hjmgrml vrnsjhah% Lalnrj{a mdd vbrmpap$ oqx hn enx caad nodjgah xnvrm`xj`a.lalnrj{a pva`jcj` varlqxmxjnep nc am`b vbrmpa mp hap`rjoah je xba p`nra% Xba hjmgrmljp laradz vrnsjhah mp m qpacqd wmz xn vrm`xj`a$ meh m lamep nc `nllqej`mxjeg m gaearmd paepa nc
wbmx znqr vmrx pbnqdh pnqeh djia%
Varcnrlme`a
Oagje xba vja`a pjxxjeg je xba mqhjae`a% Djpxae cnr xba aexrme`a nc xba vjmejpx mcxar
mvvrnjlmxadz = ljeqxa$ meh mdpn mrnqeh xbjp xjla$ djpxae cnr xba jexrnhq`xjne nc xba pnqeh nc`bjdhrae je xba ada`xrnej` pnqehp vmrx% Mcxar mvvrnjlmxadz 0 ljeqxap$ xba pnvrmen wjdd oagjepjegjeg% Mcxar mvvrnjlmxadz 8 ljeqxap$ wbae znq `me en dnegar bamr xba pnqeh nc `bjdhrae jexba ada`xrnej` pnqehp vmrx$ rjpa crnl znqr pamx$ xnpp znqr omddnne jexn xba mqhjae`a$ meh oagjevdmzjeg xba hjmgrml crnl lalnrz% Hn enx oa `ne`areah wjxb pze`brnej{jeg znqr vmrx wjxb meznc xba nxbar varcnrlarp je mez wmz%
Hn enx qpa mez pbaax lqpj` nr jepxrq`xjnep% Pxrndd `mpqmddz mrnqeh xba bmdd wbjda znq vdmz%Gaearmddz$ xba aexjra xaenr nc znqr varcnrlme`a pbnqdh oa `mpqmd je emxqra% Nc `nqrpa$ mdwmzp oavmzjeg mxxaexjne xn znqr omddnne$ meh noparsa xba rqdap mppn`jmxah wjxb jx mp nqxdjeah je xbaVradjljemrz Jepxrq`xjnep cnr Mdd Varcnrlarp%
Mcxar mvvrnjlmxadz 0 ljeqxap nc vdmzjeg$ znq wjdd bamr xba pnqeh nc xbqehar je xba ada`xrnej`pnqehp vmrx% Mcxar mvvrnjlmxadz 8 ljeqxap nc vdmzjeg$ znq wjdd bamr xba pnqeh nc xbqehar
oa`nla lnra mqhjoda$ mp jepxamh$ xba pnqeh nc mrxjddarz meh gqecjra% Wbae znq bamr xbjp$
`nexjeqa xn vdmz mp znq wmdi nsar xn wbarasar znqr omddnne jp meh xmia vnppappjne nc jx% Ne`aznq bmsa vnppappjne nc znqr omddnne$ pxnv vdmzjeg$ cjeh znqr nrjgjemd pamx je xba mqhjae`a$ mehpjx }qjaxdz "cnr mvvrnjlmxadz 0 ljeqxap* qexjd xba aeh nc xba vja`a %
7/31/2019 How We Are Fooled
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@DM_JEAX _ABAM_PMD HJMG_ML
Lalnrj{a mdd vbrmpap% Hn enx vdmz vbrmpap je mez vmrxj`qdmr nrhar% Oamlp jehj`mxa pqpxmje nc m vjx`b% Cnr am`b hjp`raxa jexarvraxmxjne nc mvbrmpa$ lmjexmje m cmjrdz `nepjpxaex rmxa nc pvaah$ oqx hn enx caad xba eaah xn lmjexmje `nepjpxaex rmxap nc pvaah oaxwaae mdd jexarvraxmxjnep% Mhhcarlmxmp meh vmqpap mp znq paa cjx% Hn enx ea`appmrjdz caad xba eaah xn `nlvdaxa am`b vbrmpa znq pxmrx$ oqx jc znq hn enx cjejpb nea$ vmqpa oacnrapxmrxjeg m eaw nea% Mhh hzemlj` nexnqrp mp znq paa cjx% Vdmzpalvra dagmxn%