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How Urbanization Can Save(or Wreck) the Planet
(and the science we need)
Karen C. SetoAssociate Dean of Research
Professor of Geography and [email protected]
Sustainable City SymposiumMay 19, 2015
Example: Gains in energy efficiency overshadowed by scale of urban expansion
A 25% decrease in energy required per tonne of concrete in China.
A 300% increase in annual CO2 emissions due to concrete used in building construction.
More space to cool
(Guneralp and Seto. 2012)
Transition to sustainability cannot solely rely on technological improvements
Example: Demographic and cultural changes +urbanization lead to increased resource demand
Decline in HH size
Increase in# HHs
Average Size of New U.S. Single-Family Houses1973-2013
(source: US Census )
19731975
19771979
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
20130
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1525
2598
Squa
re F
eet
DrivesLocal and Global
Environmental Change
Climate change
Land use change
Loss of biodiversity
Water pollution
Air pollution
Inefficient resource use
Urbanization as Crisis for Sustainability
ImprovesPlanetary & Human
Well-Bring
Lower per capita resource use
Health services, clean water, & sanitation
Efficient infrastructure use
Innovation
Engines of economic growth
Urbanization as Opportunity for Sustainability
% P
op in
Ag
Income per Capita
Save land for nature
Total CO2 emissions (per capita) needed to build up today’s infrastructure
More infrastructure will be built over the next forty years than currently exists
The Need for Urban Systems Science
Are we currently in a fundamentally different era of urbanization from the past?
If yes, what do existing theories tell us?
Beijing - Area: 16,800 km2- Population: 21.5 million
Shanghai- Area: 6,300 km2- Population: 25 million
Do our theories and models reflect and capture contemporary processes?
The Need for Urban Systems Science
Dominant perspective on theimpacts of cities and urbanization
http://www.yale.edu/yup/pdf/081979_front_1.pdf
Planetary urbanization requires rethinking urban impacts and sustainability
32(Elmqvist et al. 2013; Seto et al., 2012)
33
“The battle to ensure that our planet remains a hospitable and sustainable home for the human species will be won or lost in the major urban areas.” – Maurice Strong, Secretary General
UN Conference on Environment and Development, 1992