How to get the Future of Tourism out of Today’s Consumer Surveys - Prospects for Senior and Kids Travel in Germany - Martin Lohmann & Johanna Danielsson

How to get the Future of Tourism out of Today’s Consumer Surveys

- Prospects for Senior and Kids Travel in Germany -

Martin Lohmann & Johanna Danielsson

This document is part of a presentation and not complete without the oral explanations.

© with the authors, Lüneburg/Arjeplog, 2004

Dept. of Business Psychology University of Applied SciencesWilschenbrucher Weg 84 aD-21335 Lü[email protected]

research+developmentPipudden 2

S-93090 [email protected]

► Demographic trends and their impact on tourism demand

► The “Reiseanalyse” (RA) travel survey

► Holiday trips of seniors

► Holiday trips with children

► Conclusion

AgendaAgenda

Demographic Trends

► People are getting older.► Number of children is

declining;Dissolution of traditional family patterns.

? How will demographic changes influence consumer behaviour?

Tourism consumer surveys can provide appropriate data.

The “Reiseanalyse”

► The “Reiseanalyse” (RA) is a yearly (since 1970) representative survey,

► covering holiday travel behaviour, intentions and attitudes of Germans,

► conducted every year with a comparable set of questions and based on a random sample of 7,500 face-to-face interviews.

► Users: tour operators, hotel chains, regional, national and international tourism organisations / ministries and other companies in the tourism industry.

F.U.R www.fur.de

Demographic Trends

Tourism consumer surveys can be helpful in providing data on:

► the importance a segment has,► the specific behaviour patterns

of a segment,► the direction and degree of

change.Two examples …

Holiday trips of seniors

First Example: Senior Travellers


Growing number of senior citizens = major marketing challenge

Research questions:► What structural changes are to

expect in the “tourist society”?

► Less trips due to a lower travel propensity of elderly people?

► Will future seniors travel differently?


Change of holiday travel propensity 1972 / 2003

Holiday travel propensity

Change

age group 1972 2003 1972/2003

<29 years 57 80 + 40%

30-39 53 79 + 49%

40-59 49 81 + 65%

60-69 41 76 + 85%

70+ years 33 63 + 91%

All 49 77 + 57%

Figures for German population aged 14 years or older; in % of age groups

Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 1972-2004




Change

age group 1972 2003 1972/2003

<29 years 57 80 + 40%

30-39 53 79 + 49%

40-59 49 81 + 65%

60-69 41 76 + 85%

70+ years 33 63 + 91%

All 49 77 + 57%



Old people travel less




Change

age group 1972 2003 1972/2003

<29 years 57 80 + 40%

30-39 53 79 + 49%

40-59 49 81 + 65%

60-69 41 76 + 85%

70+ years 33 63 + 91%

All 49 77 + 57%



Old people travel less ≠ people travel less when getting older


► Necessity of a longitudinal study for monitoring travel patterns throughout life-cycles.

We have re-analyzed 33 years of RA data, by following the cohorts (= ascending series of age groups) during their life cycle and looking at basic indicators for their holiday travel behaviour.


Holiday Travel Propensity for two German generations over time

Year 1973 1979 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

population travel propensity (%)

49 57 54 65 75 76 77

cohort 25 to 55 years

age 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

travel propensity

56 66 59 74 81 82 80

cohort 45 to 75 years

age 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

travel propensity

52 57 56 60 66 67 65

Figures for West-Germany; % of age groups





45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1973 1983 1993 2003

pop. travel prop.25-55 yrs.45-75 yrs.

%


25 yrs.

55 yrs.

45 yrs.

75 yrs.

Holiday trips of seniorsTravel behaviour of future German senior generations

75-year-olds in ...

2003 2008 2018

Total in the age group in mn 6.40 8.35 8.40

Travel propensity in % 65 70 78

Travellers in mn 4.2 5.8 6.6

Destination of main holiday trip in %

Domestic 50 42 31

Abroad 50 58 69

Note: All figures for West-Germany only; 75-year-olds = 70-80 years of age at a certain year. Figures for 2008 and 2018 are estimations based on the rates of the age groups 65-75 and 55-65 today (2003).

Own calculations based on F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 2004and pop. predictions for Germany


Lessons learned:► People (cohorts) stick to their travel

behaviour when getting older.

► Future senior travellers will behave differently than today’s.

► But this change is within limits foreseeable:more senior trips with different preferences (reasons: demographic change + different behaviour patterns of cohorts + rigidity).

► Presented approach is a useful tool for tourism marketing.


Second Example: Trips with children

Holiday trips with children


Research questions:

► Will new segments replace the old-fashioned family trip?

► Are tailor-made offers for single parents profitable for the tourism industry?

► Do one-kid-families need more attention?

► Will holiday trips for seniors travelling with (grand-)children meet a growing demand?


Methodological approach: Segmentation

► Volume of segments in society and

in tourism demand?: How many?

► Development of segments?: demographic trends?

► Tourist consumer behaviour of segments?: Anything specific?


trips without

kids 78%

trips with kids > 13 yrs. 22%

n = 8,067; all holiday trips

German Holiday Trips 2003 ► 66 mn trips, 14 mn with kids = 22%; share has been stable for more than a decade

► Trend in society: - 8% less children 2000 - 2010, rising share of 1 kid households

► In tourism:- 8% ≈ 13 mn trips, but actual decrease will be less

Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 2004:


0 20 40 60 80

trips of single parentswith kids > 13 yrs.

50+ with kids

one-kid-trips

4%

9%

59%

Segmentation of Holiday Trips 2002

Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 2003

%


Single parent holiday with kids:► Less than 4% of all kids-trips (0.5 mn

trips); mostly don’t travel as single parents; even with the share of single parents in society rising (+12%) small volume in tourism (0.6 mn trips)

Seniors + kids► Relevant share (2003: 12%); growing

interest & possibilities; specific behaviour.

One-kid-trips► Already the standard (59%); further

increase to be expected; specific behaviour.

► Will new segments replace the old-fashioned family trip?: No

► Are tailor-made offers for single parents profitable for the tourism industry?: No

► Do one-kid-families need more attention?: Yes!

► Will holiday trips for seniors travelling with (grand-)children meet a growing demand?: Yes!


Conclusion

► Consumer survey data can be useful in determining trends in tourism, their size, speed and relevance.

► It thus allows for a realistic view of the actual situation and enables us to draw appropriate conclusions for the future.

Conclusion

This way of consumer survey data based trend research in tourism helps to understand the dynamics and “mechanics” within the segments.

Thank youfor listening

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How to get the Future of Tourism out of Today’s Consumer Surveys - Prospects for Senior and Kids Travel in Germany - Martin Lohmann & Johanna Danielsson