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1 How to Conduct a How to Conduct a Cost-Effective Cost-Effective Transit Transit Alternatives Alternatives Analysis Analysis Jim Czarnecky, AICP, DMJM Harris Jim Czarnecky, AICP, DMJM Harris David Schmitt, AICP, AECOM Consult David Schmitt, AICP, AECOM Consult 11 11 th th TRB Planning Applications Conference TRB Planning Applications Conference Daytona Beach, Florida Daytona Beach, Florida May 6 May 6 th th -10 -10 th th , 2007 , 2007

How to Conduct a Cost-Effective Transit Alternatives Analysis

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How to Conduct a Cost-Effective Transit Alternatives Analysis. Jim Czarnecky, AICP, DMJM Harris David Schmitt, AICP, AECOM Consult 11 th TRB Planning Applications Conference Daytona Beach, Florida May 6 th -10 th , 2007. What is a Cost Effective AA?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: How to Conduct a Cost-Effective Transit  Alternatives Analysis

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How to Conduct How to Conduct a Cost-Effective a Cost-Effective

TransitTransit Alternatives Alternatives

AnalysisAnalysisJim Czarnecky, AICP, DMJM HarrisJim Czarnecky, AICP, DMJM HarrisDavid Schmitt, AICP, AECOM ConsultDavid Schmitt, AICP, AECOM Consult

1111thth TRB Planning Applications Conference TRB Planning Applications ConferenceDaytona Beach, Florida May 6Daytona Beach, Florida May 6thth-10-10thth, ,

20072007

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What is a Cost Effective What is a Cost Effective AA?AA?

A Cost Effective AA facilitates A Cost Effective AA facilitates informed decisions earlier in the informed decisions earlier in the project development processproject development process

Intended to reduce risk of delays, budget Intended to reduce risk of delays, budget overruns and do-overs due to:overruns and do-overs due to: Inadequate fundingInadequate funding Lack of data and/or adequate analysis toolsLack of data and/or adequate analysis tools Contractual scope changesContractual scope changes Flawed processFlawed process Untimely redirection from other agenciesUntimely redirection from other agencies

There are exceptions, as each project is There are exceptions, as each project is unique to its own environmentunique to its own environment

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Optimize Project Optimize Project DevelopmentDevelopment

$

AA PE/EIS FD

$$$$

$$ $$$ $$$$

Historical Pattern

New Pattern

Potential time & cost

savings

$$$$$$$

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MotivationsMotivations

““Planning projects don’t die, they simply Planning projects don’t die, they simply mutate”mutate”

Make managers aware of common Make managers aware of common pitfalls/issues that contribute to a loss of pitfalls/issues that contribute to a loss of focus while in the AA processfocus while in the AA process

FTA is increasing its involvement in AAsFTA is increasing its involvement in AAs Recent trends indicate projects are reaching Recent trends indicate projects are reaching

“critical decisions” in AA rather than PE “critical decisions” in AA rather than PE phasesphases Stresses importance on best data available in AA → Stresses importance on best data available in AA →

importance of preparation!importance of preparation!

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Preparing for the studyPreparing for the study Before the AA…Before the AA…

Alternatives evaluationAlternatives evaluation During the AA…During the AA…

Preparing for the next phasePreparing for the next phase After the AA…After the AA…

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FundingFunding Secure Secure fullfull funding for the study prior funding for the study prior

to issuing RFPto issuing RFP

Temptation is to issue NTP prior to having Temptation is to issue NTP prior to having all the funding in place → Often leads to all the funding in place → Often leads to project delaysproject delays

AAs are time sensitiveAAs are time sensitive Politics, land development, joint venture Politics, land development, joint venture

opportunities etc. changeopportunities etc. change Risk loosing intellectual property during delays Risk loosing intellectual property during delays

based on staff availabilitybased on staff availability Budgets are tied to durationBudgets are tied to duration

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Understand the Local & Federal Understand the Local & Federal ExpectationsExpectations

Sponsor needs to understand the local Sponsor needs to understand the local objectives & the federal requirements objectives & the federal requirements for New Starts fundingfor New Starts funding

Common purpose of the AA should be to identify Common purpose of the AA should be to identify “the project”“the project” Mode, alignment, benefits and costsMode, alignment, benefits and costs Develop realistic and conservative estimatesDevelop realistic and conservative estimates

Dominant Federal criteria is the Dominant Federal criteria is the transportationtransportation Cost EffectivenessCost Effectiveness Cost of travel time savings compared to a low cost optionCost of travel time savings compared to a low cost option

Local need may be to provide a catalyst for Local need may be to provide a catalyst for economic developmenteconomic development Build it and they will come philosophyBuild it and they will come philosophy

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Address Local & Federal Address Local & Federal DifferencesDifferences

Possible divergence from a New Starts Possible divergence from a New Starts project to a local project needs to be project to a local project needs to be explicitexplicit

RFP and scope need to deal with differing RFP and scope need to deal with differing dominant criteriadominant criteria Educate the public, stakeholders and decision makersEducate the public, stakeholders and decision makers Establish milestones where the “type” of project is Establish milestones where the “type” of project is

identifiedidentified New Starts, Small Starts, Very Small Starts, Local Project, New Starts, Small Starts, Very Small Starts, Local Project,

No-build) No-build) Final scope and deliverables dictated by the “type” of Final scope and deliverables dictated by the “type” of

project identified at the milestoneproject identified at the milestone

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Know Your CorridorKnow Your Corridor Knowing corridor can help mid-stream Knowing corridor can help mid-stream

redeployment or “backtracking”redeployment or “backtracking” Be honest! Tendency to get caught up in Be honest! Tendency to get caught up in

hypehype

Need to know:Need to know: Travel and transit use patternsTravel and transit use patterns

Transportation system…what is the Transportation system…what is the realreal problem? Is there problem? Is there one?one?

Identify activity centersIdentify activity centers Population & employment trends Population & employment trends

Needs to be expressed in travel markets, congestionNeeds to be expressed in travel markets, congestion Will be foundation of purpose & need, make-the-case memoWill be foundation of purpose & need, make-the-case memo

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Travel Demand Model Travel Demand Model Check-UpCheck-Up

Addressing major modeling issues during AA Addressing major modeling issues during AA causes slowdowns & lack of momentumcauses slowdowns & lack of momentum When the numbers change mid-stream…it’s awkwardWhen the numbers change mid-stream…it’s awkward

Cannot eliminate/address Cannot eliminate/address allall issues prior to AA issues prior to AA Why? Evolving regulations, standards, knowledgeWhy? Evolving regulations, standards, knowledge

What you should know:What you should know: Is your latest transit on-board survey less than 5 years Is your latest transit on-board survey less than 5 years

old?old? Do you have recent traffic counts of highways and Do you have recent traffic counts of highways and

arterials across the region, and especially in your arterials across the region, and especially in your corridor?corridor?

Can the model meet New Starts modeling needs? Can the model meet New Starts modeling needs? Lack of immediate ‘yes’ probably means ‘no’!Lack of immediate ‘yes’ probably means ‘no’!

How recent is your travel demand model validation?How recent is your travel demand model validation?

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Preparing for the studyPreparing for the study Before the AA…Before the AA…

Alternatives evaluationAlternatives evaluation During the AA…During the AA…

Preparing for the next phasePreparing for the next phase After the AA…After the AA…

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Ridership ForecastsRidership Forecasts

Lack of FTA participation will Lack of FTA participation will lead to surpriseslead to surprises

Engage the FTA early and oftenEngage the FTA early and often Review model & results to dateReview model & results to date Establish the No-build and Baseline Establish the No-build and Baseline

earlyearly Solicit FTA feedback regarding the Solicit FTA feedback regarding the

evaluation of the build alternativesevaluation of the build alternatives

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Know Who’s WhoKnow Who’s Who Lack of authority Lack of authority maymay lead to gridlock - lead to gridlock -

exclusionism definitely willexclusionism definitely will

Establish Technical WorkgroupEstablish Technical Workgroup Works with the project team frequently to address Works with the project team frequently to address

technical aspects of the study → avoids cumbersome technical aspects of the study → avoids cumbersome protocol to minimize project scheduleprotocol to minimize project schedule

Typically technical specialists from various agenciesTypically technical specialists from various agencies Advises the Steering WorkgroupAdvises the Steering Workgroup

Establish Steering WorkgroupEstablish Steering Workgroup Decision making bodyDecision making body Meets less frequently to make milestone decisions to Meets less frequently to make milestone decisions to

advance projectadvance project Consultants should not be advocate plannersConsultants should not be advocate planners

They provide data so others can make informed decisionsThey provide data so others can make informed decisions

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Public/Stakeholder Public/Stakeholder InvolvementInvolvement

A robust Public Involvement plan reduces the A robust Public Involvement plan reduces the chance of having to revisit dismissed chance of having to revisit dismissed alternativesalternatives

TransparencyTransparency Be proactive – perception is reality in the public eyeBe proactive – perception is reality in the public eye Advertise the process and provide information from Advertise the process and provide information from

beginning to end beginning to end Present quantitative data whenever possible → Present quantitative data whenever possible →

commensurate with level of confidencecommensurate with level of confidence Engage in Engage in meaningfulmeaningful participation participation

Teach the public about the need, process, project drivers Teach the public about the need, process, project drivers etc. etc.

Explore some of public’s ideasExplore some of public’s ideas Respond to all comments and questionsRespond to all comments and questions Get Get youryour story out by providing the media with information story out by providing the media with information

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Right-size the Technical Right-size the Technical ScopeScope

Don’t get ahead of yourself…we’re in the big Don’t get ahead of yourself…we’re in the big picture here!picture here!

Engineering should be limited to determining Engineering should be limited to determining reasonable feasibility, costs and impactsreasonable feasibility, costs and impacts Defer surveys, soil borings, traffic countsDefer surveys, soil borings, traffic counts

Environmental evaluation should focus on tangible Environmental evaluation should focus on tangible differentiators (e.g. Demographics, Environmental differentiators (e.g. Demographics, Environmental Justice, Land Use, Economics, ROW Impacts)Justice, Land Use, Economics, ROW Impacts)

Architectural dog and pony show comes after you Architectural dog and pony show comes after you find out if you have a projectfind out if you have a project

Final tasks in scope can be an option based on the Final tasks in scope can be an option based on the “type” of project“type” of project

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Avoiding Paralysis by Avoiding Paralysis by AnalysisAnalysis

It’s easy to get lost in the details and stallIt’s easy to get lost in the details and stall

Design is evolutionary not revolutionary Design is evolutionary not revolutionary Establish explicit methodology with some flexibilityEstablish explicit methodology with some flexibility Agree to definitions at each step and try to avoid Agree to definitions at each step and try to avoid

changes midstreamchanges midstream Don’t muddle - significant impacts to cost and Don’t muddle - significant impacts to cost and

performance requires scope changesperformance requires scope changes If the story does not change, move on and refine as If the story does not change, move on and refine as

you goyou go Recognize that ridership estimates are inherently Recognize that ridership estimates are inherently

limitedlimited Focus on deal breakersFocus on deal breakers

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Dealing with Preconceived Dealing with Preconceived SolutionsSolutions

Milestone decisions must be informed to Milestone decisions must be informed to avoid regressive analysis and surprisesavoid regressive analysis and surprises

Perform equal analysis for all alternatives at Perform equal analysis for all alternatives at same stage of studysame stage of study Do not dismiss alternatives prematurelyDo not dismiss alternatives prematurely Clearly communicate and document the key Clearly communicate and document the key

reasons/differentiators for dismissing an alternativereasons/differentiators for dismissing an alternative Cost effective projects vs. effective projectsCost effective projects vs. effective projects

Federal criteria vs. local preferenceFederal criteria vs. local preference New Starts eligibility decision point!New Starts eligibility decision point!

When the “type” of project is identified, prepare When the “type” of project is identified, prepare for next phasefor next phase

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Preparing for the studyPreparing for the study Before the AA…Before the AA…

Alternatives evaluationAlternatives evaluation During the AA…During the AA…

Preparing for the next phasePreparing for the next phase After the AA…After the AA…

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Preparing for the Next Preparing for the Next Phase Phase

Failure to adequately prepare for the next Failure to adequately prepare for the next step costs time, money, project support & step costs time, money, project support & momentummomentum

Establish a strong project champion and political Establish a strong project champion and political supportsupport

Prepare project approach and timeline based on Prepare project approach and timeline based on the “type” of project the “type” of project

Secure funding for next phaseSecure funding for next phase Gather new data (e.g. ground/aerial survey, Gather new data (e.g. ground/aerial survey,

utilities, census, transit surveys)utilities, census, transit surveys) Select consultantsSelect consultants Schedule Scoping Meeting and file Notice of Schedule Scoping Meeting and file Notice of

Intent (if applicable) Intent (if applicable)

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Conclusive ActionConclusive Action Ambiguity leads to do-oversAmbiguity leads to do-overs

Steering Workgroup and/or Agency identifies Steering Workgroup and/or Agency identifies LPA with formal motionLPA with formal motion Use specific language (i.e. one mode and one Use specific language (i.e. one mode and one

alignment, and next steps)alignment, and next steps) Next steps are dictated by the “type” of projectNext steps are dictated by the “type” of project

New Starts, Small Starts, Very Small Starts, Local New Starts, Small Starts, Very Small Starts, Local project, No-build, etc.project, No-build, etc.

Amend the Long Range PlanAmend the Long Range Plan Prepare and submit appropriate Prepare and submit appropriate

documentationdocumentation New Starts application? New Starts application?

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Check ListCheck ListPreparing for the StudyPreparing for the Study Local objectives and expectations are Local objectives and expectations are

understoodunderstood New Starts criteria is understoodNew Starts criteria is understood RFP and scope deals effectively with bothRFP and scope deals effectively with both Full funding is available for studyFull funding is available for study Corridor socioeconomics and transportation Corridor socioeconomics and transportation

patterns are understoodpatterns are understood Transit survey less than 5 years oldTransit survey less than 5 years old Recent traffic counts on highways and Recent traffic counts on highways and

arterialsarterials The TDM satisfies New Starts needsThe TDM satisfies New Starts needs The TDM has been validated recently The TDM has been validated recently

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Check ListCheck ListAlternatives EvaluationAlternatives Evaluation

Evaluation process and key decision milestones have been Evaluation process and key decision milestones have been establishedestablished

Decision makers have been identifiedDecision makers have been identified Technical advisors have been identifiedTechnical advisors have been identified Project has been advertised and notification given to the Project has been advertised and notification given to the

FTA FTA A robust Public Involvement Plan has been implementedA robust Public Involvement Plan has been implemented Media kits have been utilizedMedia kits have been utilized Appropriate technical scope has been establishedAppropriate technical scope has been established FTA has reviewed the TDM and project materials on multiple FTA has reviewed the TDM and project materials on multiple

occasionsoccasions Avoided paralysis by following methodology and focusing on Avoided paralysis by following methodology and focusing on

the deal breakersthe deal breakers Milestone decisions were fully informedMilestone decisions were fully informed Type of project is identified and next steps planned Type of project is identified and next steps planned

accordinglyaccordingly

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Check ListCheck ListPreparing for the Next Preparing for the Next

PhasePhase Project Champion and political support is Project Champion and political support is

establishedestablished Project approach and timeline for next phase is Project approach and timeline for next phase is

developeddeveloped Funding for next phase is securedFunding for next phase is secured New data requirements are identified/obtainedNew data requirements are identified/obtained Consultant is selectedConsultant is selected Scheduled Scoping Meeting and filed Notice of Scheduled Scoping Meeting and filed Notice of

Intent (if applicable)Intent (if applicable) LPA and next steps is identified in formal motion LPA and next steps is identified in formal motion Long Range Transportation Plan is amendedLong Range Transportation Plan is amended New Start Application is submitted or other New Start Application is submitted or other

materials preparedmaterials prepared

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Contact InfoContact Info Jim Czarnecky, DMJM HarrisJim Czarnecky, DMJM Harris

[email protected]@dmjmharris.com

Dave Schmitt, AECOM ConsultDave Schmitt, AECOM Consult [email protected]@dmjmharris.com

Questions/CommentsQuestions/Comments