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realtor q and a guide
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Matt DollingerPresident and Founder, Gearbox Consulting
“The simple visualization of complex data for things like real estate trends empower the real estate professional to educate their consumer and positions the agent as THE reliable source for this information.”
Isn’t the market coming to a standstill? I hear things have
been very slow so far this year.
NAR 8/2014
EXISTING Home Sales
NAR 8/2014
PENDING Home Sales
19.3
26.2
43.946.1
44.542.5
54.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014
reator.org
Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)
Where will 30-year mortgage rates likely be in 12 months?
Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate
2015 3Q
Fannie Mae 4.6% Freddie Mac 4.8% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.2% National Assoc of Realtors 5.2%
8/2014
Decade Average Rate Payment1970s 8.86% $1,5891980s 12.7% $2,1661990s 8.12% $1,4842000s 6.29% $1,237Sept 2014 4.10% $966
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rates and the approximate payment for a $200,000 mortgage. Payments are principal & interest only, based on a $200,000 fully amortizing mortgage.All terms are assumed to be 30 years.
Freddie Mac 8/2014
Historic Mortgage Rates by Decade
Are home values approaching a new bubble or will prices
continue to appreciate?
Prices Back to 2005 1Q Prices
Case Shiller 8/2014
Mark FlemingChief Economist for CoreLogic
"This reversion to normality that we are finally experiencing is expected
to continue across the country and should further alleviate concern over diminishing affordability and the
risk of another asset bubble."
Prices & Time Since The Peak
Source: CoreLogic Market Pulse 8.2014
Home Price Expectation
SurveyA nationwide panel of
over one hundred economists, real
estate experts and investment & market
strategists.
Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 3Q
PROJECTED Mean Percentage Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 3Q
Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018
19.4%
27.8%
19.5%
11.2%Pre-BubbleTrend
Bulls All Projections
Bears
Is it better for a buyer to wait until they save a bigger down
payment before they purchase a home?
1/2013 8/2014
Freddie MacProjected Rates
August 2014 – 2015 4Q
Freddie Mac 8/2014
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
Freddie Mac Rates January 2013 – August 2014
Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $250,000 4.10 1,208.00
Sept 2015 $260,000 4.8 1,364.13
*Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment
$156.13Difference in Monthly Payment
Monthly Annually Over 30 Years
$156.13 $1,873.56 $56,207
Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $500,000 4.10 2,415.99
Sept 2015 $520,000 4.8 2,728.26
*Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment
$312.27Difference in Monthly Payment
Monthly Annually Over 30 Years
$312.27 $3,747.24 $112,417
6.00 $ 1,199 $ 1,169 $ 1,139 $ 1,109 $ 1,079
5.75 $ 1,167 $ 1,138 $ 1,109 $ 1,080 $ 1,050
5.50 $ 1,136 $ 1,107 $ 1,079 $ 1,050 $ 1,022
5.25 $ 1,104 $ 1,077 $ 1,049 $ 1,022 $ 994
5.00 $ 1,074 $ 1,047 $ 1,020 $ 993 $ 966
4.75 $ 1,043 $ 1,017 $ 991 $ 965 $ 939
4.50 $ 1,013 $ 988 $ 963 $ 937 $ 912
$ 200,000 $ 195,000 $ 190,000 $ 185,000 $ 180,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%
Buyer’s Purchasing PowerR
ATE
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
6.00 $ 3,597 $ 3,507 $ 3,417 $ 3,328 $ 3,237
5.75 $ 3,501 $ 3,414 $ 3,326 $ 3,239 $ 3,151
5.50 $ 3,407 $ 3,322 $ 3,236 $ 3,151 $ 3,066
5.25 $ 3,313 $ 3,230 $ 3,148 $ 3,065 $ 2,982
5.00 $ 3,221 $ 3,140 $ 3,060 $ 2,979 $ 2,899
4.75 $ 3,130 $ 3,052 $ 2,973 $ 2,895 $ 2,817
4.50 $ 3,040 $ 2,964 $ 2,888 $ 2,812 $ 2,736
$ 600,000 $ 585,000 $ 570,000 $ 555,000 $ 540,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%
RA
TE
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
Buyer’s Purchasing Power
Why do I need an agent when I can just as easily find the
house online myself?
NAR 2014
found their HOMEon the Internet
Percentage of Buyers who…
NAR 2014
Percentage of Buyers who…
used an AGENT
Cameron FindlayChief Economist at Discover Home Loans
“The industry is becoming more transparent in an effort to help
homebuyers become informed about changes that may affect their process. The sheer amount of information can
lead to confusion and stress.”
Inundated with Information% that feels overwhelmed by the amount of information available on home financing
Discover Financial 2014
“Access to all this information isn’t always a positive force. Sometimes, it can stall a buyer or make them question whether or not they want to be a buyer.”
- Fox Business News
Why can't we list at a higher price? We can always drop the price later if it doesn't
sell.
50 50.647.8
27.7
19.3
26.2
43.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
September 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 March 2014
reator.org
Foot Traffic during the fall and winter
Won't we save a lot of money if we FSBO instead of listing
with an agent?
$184K
$230K
By FSBO By AGENT
*The ‘typical’ price is actually the average price in the survey. However, studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points.
Typical Sold Price*FSBO vs. Agent
NAR 2014
found their HOMEon the Internet
Percentage of Buyers who…
NAR 2014
Percentage of Buyers who…
used an AGENT
I’m not sure if home ownership is still the
American Dream. What do you think?
15 ‘MAJOR’ REASONS TO OWN A HOMEas per a survey by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University
* the reasons are in no particular order
www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com/trial
Is buying a home still a good investment for my family?
Financial Reasons to BuyReason Quote from Harvard Report
Housing is the one leveraged investment
available
“Homeownership allows households to amplify any appreciation on the value of their
homes by a leverage factor.”
You're paying for housing whether you own or rent
“Homeowners pay debt service to pay down their own principal while households that rent
pay down the principal of a landlord.”
Owning is usually a form of “forced savings”
“Having to make a housing payment one way or the other, owning a home can overcome
people’s tendency to defer savings.”
There are substantial tax benefits to owning
“Homeowners are able to deduct mortgage interest and property taxes from income.”
Owning is a hedge against inflation
“Housing costs and rents have tended over most time periods to go up at or higher than
the rate of inflation, making owning an attractive proposition.”
5
Federal Reserve
OVER 30X greaterthan renters
Homeowners Net Worth…
$174,500
$5,100
Homeowner Renter
An American Family’s
Net Worth
Federal Reserve
Gallup 4/2104
Best Long Term Investment
Gallup 4/2104
How do I know which agent I can truly trust to help me and
my family?
Marc DavisonCo-Founder 1000WATT Consulting
"Focus on brand marketing, content marketing and other more
intelligent means of engaging homebuyers and sellers."
STOP with the
Cherry Pie Recipes
BRANDING
Direct MAIL
Alexa Silva typically has about a dozen pieces up telling a story. Three years ago she wasn't in real estate.
She will sell 50-60 homes this year.
KCMKCM on the go!on the go!
“Two in three people researched prospective agents extensively online prior to working with them.” - Google