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HOW SYSTEM THINKING APPROACHES AND
THE NOTION OF ENERGY METABOLISM OF
URBAN SOCIOECONOMIC SECTORS CAN
INFORM ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICIES
Brian D. Fath Professor, Biology Department, Towson University, USA
Research Scholar and YSSP Scientific Coordinator
IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
2/26/2015 1
Outline
1) Complex Adaptive Systems
2) Networks
3) Resilience and the Adaptive Cycle
4) Cities as complex systems
5) Urban Metabolism
2/26/2015 2
1. General Systems Theory
All systems possess four properties:
1) wholeness and order
(the systemic or state property, "S")
2) intra- and inter-systemic hierarchies
(the holon property, "H")
3) adaptive self-stabilization (system cybernetics I)
4) adaptive self-organization (system cybernetics II)
(cybernetics being the basis of "A").
Complex Adaptive Hierarchical Systems (CAHSystems)
2/26/2015 3
The ORDER in Complexity
changes our view of appropriate methods
2/26/2015 4
If everything is connected to
everything else, then how can we
ever know anything?
2. Why networks are important
Analyzing the system can help avoid unwanted or
unexpected consequences.
2/26/2015 5
Ecological Food Web
2/26/2015 6
DepositedDetritus
x2 = 1000.00
Filter Feeders
x1 = 2000.00
Meiofauna
x4 = 24.12140
Microbiota
x3 = 2.4121
DepositFeeders
x5 = 16.2740
Predators
x6 = 69.2367
z1 = 41.4697
y4 = 3.5794
y5 = 0.4303
y6 = 0.3594
y3 = 5.7600
y2 = 6.1759
y1 = 25.1646
f26 = 0.3262f21 = 15.7915
f61 = 0.5135
f25 = 1.9076
f32 = 8.1721
f65 = 0.1721
f52 = 0.6431
f42 = 7.2745f54 = 0.6609
f24 = 4.2403
f53 = 1.2060
f43 = 1.2060
Oyster Reef Model
Dame and Patten 1981 – flow is in kcal/(day m2), storage
in kcal/m2
2/26/2015 7
Weighted,
directed
graph
Path Analysis
aij – enumerates
number of
pathways in a
network
Flow Analysis (gij = fij/Tj)
identifies flow intensities along
indirect pathways
Storage Analysis (cij = fij/xj)
identifies storage intensities along
indirect pathways
Utility Analysis (dij = (fij – fji)/Ti)
identifies utility intensities along
indirect pathways
Ecological Network Analysis
Flow: N = I + G + G2 + G3 + G4 +…
Storage: Q = I + P + P2 + P3 + P4 +…
Utility: U = I + D + D2 + D3 + D4 +…
integral = initial + direct + indirect
input
Key findings:
• Quantify input and output flow
• Indirect flows > direct flows
• Flows are well mixed
• Mutualistic relations dominate
Propagation of network indirect effects
3. Adaptive Cycle: Holling’s 4-stage model of
ecosystem dynamics
Ori
ento
r
rs.resalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/02/4box-adaptive-cycle.gif
2/26/2015 10
Adaptive Cycle - reoriented
Burkhard et al. 2011
r
Ω α
K
2/26/2015 11
Benefits of collapse
• Schumpeter labeled the collapse, “creative
destruction”, since it allowed for new
configurations and innovation opportunities
2/26/2015 12
Develop-
mental
potential
Connectedness
Developmental opportunities result from the collapse
r
Ω
α
K
2/26/2015 13
ecosy
stem
in
dic
ato
r
number of connections
Long-term succession of ecosystems: small-scale disturbances
may support the development of the overall system.
2/26/2015 14
4. Cities as complex systems
“Urban planning is a problem of handling
organized complexity”
Jane Jacobs, 1961
Many interacting parts, fine grained, local
interactions, emergent properties.
Urban Metabolism and networks 2/26/2015 15
2/26/2015 16
Chicago Pop. growth
1850 - 30,000
1870 - 300,000
1890 - 1,000,000
1920 - 2,000,000
the rebuilding that began almost
immediately spurred Chicago's development
into one of the most populous and
economically important American and
international cities
Fire 1871
Chicago as a CAS
2/26/2015 17
Other urban examples and the responses:
• San Francisco Earthquake 1906
• Hurricane Katrina 2005
• Oil shock - Suburban Sprawl 21st Century
2/26/2015 18
Urban Ecosystems
Amalgamations of Socio-ecological-economic
systems
Three issues: A. understanding a city as a system
B. understanding specific environmental impacts of
cities
C. understanding a city as a sense of space (human
niche)
2/26/2015 19
A. City as system Inputs: air, water, food, fuels, raw materials, people
Outputs: waste heat, finished goods, ideas, wastewater,
solid wastes, air pollutants
2/26/2015 20
2/26/2015 21
autocatalytic loops in the
biosphere and an
economy
B. Impacts on Environment
Loss of habitat
Impervious surface increase
Alter biogeochemical cycles
Water - increases runoff & flooding (faster & higher peak)
Nitrogen - air pollution (smog)
Phosphorus - water pollution (runoff, wastewater)
Sulfur - air pollution (acid rain)
Carbon - GHG emissions
Microclimate changes
Transportation requirements
2/26/2015 22
C. Built Environment - We define our
space (landscape): Space defines us
Quality of life = quality of public
spaces
Places of quality and character need
a successful definition of space
2/26/2015 23
Jan Gehl – Cities for People
• Lively
• Safe
• Sustainable
• Healthy
Humans:
A linear, frontal, horizontal mammal walking at max 5km/h
2/26/2015 24
Lively
• More social contact with well-designed public spaces;
walking, biking, public transit, chance encounters
• A city’s greatest attraction: People
• People come where people are
2/26/2015 25
Safety
• More eyes on the street
• Fewer auto accidents
2/26/2015 26
Sustainable
• Green mobility
• Fewer emissions
• Less noise
A good transportation system minimizes unnecessary transportation;
and it offers change of speed and mode to fit a diversity of human
purposes. p. 57. Marshall 2000
2/26/2015 27
Healthy
• Exercise integrated into daily routines
• Cleaner air
• Greener access
2/26/2015 28
Christopher Alexander - A Pattern Language
2/26/2015 29
Nature of Order - Alexander
2/26/2015 30
2/26/2015 31
Key feature is forming and maintaining self-sustaining cycles
Ecological Structure and Function
2/26/2015 32
5. Quantitative analysis of urban
metabolism and health
2/26/2015 33
Urban Metabolism:
Case study of Four Chinese Cities
Zhang et al. 2010. Ecol. Model. 1865-1879.
Beijing
Chongqing
Shanghai
Tianjin
2/26/2015 34
Energy
transformation
sector
Energy
exploi tat ion
sector
Industrial
sector
Primary energySecondary energy
Input
Output
Input
LossLoss
Loss
Byproduct resource recovery
Byproduct resource recovery
Living
sector
Primary energy
Primary energy
Secondary energy
Byproduct resource recovery
Byproduct
resource
recovery
Loss
Byproduct resource
recovery
Input
Output
Input
Output
Output
Conceptual model of urban energy metabolic processes
2/26/2015 35
Living sector
i=4
Industrial
sector
i=3
Energy
exploi tat ion
sector
i=1
y1
f41
f21 f31
z1
f25
z2 y2
z4
z3
f32
f35
f54
Energy
transformation
sector
i=2
Recovery
i=5
f42 f52
f53
Ecological network of urban energy metabolism
2/26/2015 36
Beijing (FB) Shanghai (FS) 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
2 0.087 0 0 0 0 2 0.093 0 0 0 1.036 3 0 1.929 0 0 0 3 0.009 2.946 0 0 0.008 4 0 0.080 0 0 0 4 0 0.143 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0.004 1.032 0.008 0
Tianjin (FT)
Chongqing (FC) 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
2 0.517 0 0 0 0.080 2 1.425 0 0 0 0.082 3 0.024 1.045 0 0 0.119 3 1.514 0.627 0 0 0.346 4 0 0.175 0 0 0 4 0.106 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0.199 0 0 5 0 0.001 0.427 0 0
Direct flows among sectors (units: 107 t standard coal eq.)
2/26/2015 37
0.070
0.553
0.272 0.105
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
1
2
3+4
5
0.008
0.047
0.602
0.308
0.035
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
1
2
3+4
5
0.013
0.208
0.521
0.236 0.023
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
1
2
3+4
5
0.739
0.046
0.139
0.042
0.034
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
1
2
3+4
5
Beijing Shanghai
Tianjin Chongqing
Ecological structure of the urban energy metabolic system.
Sectors: 1 energy exploitation; 2 energy transformation; 3 industrial;
4 household; 5 recovery.
2/26/2015 38
Water network model of Beijing
2/26/2015 39
“Trophic” water structure of Beijing
Holistic interactions between sectors
2/26/2015 40
Urban Ecosystem Health using energy-
based measurements
2/26/2015 41
Overall health status from Chinese case
studies
2/26/2015 42
Conclusions
• Cities depend on exogenous energy resources
• Urban trophic structure mostly inverted
• Additional energy recovery systems needed
• Households and industry always in competition for final
demand energy
• Energy efficiency improvements can help but more
importantly are how the energy networks are formed and
maintained.
2/26/2015 43
Take Home
• “It may be that all self-sustaining
systems are reciprocating.” p. 126.
Jane Jacobs. 1969. The Economy of Cities
2/26/2015 44
THANK YOU FOR
YOUR ATTENTION
2/26/2015 45