HOW SUSTAINABILITY AND HEALTH INTERSECT IN GLOBAL FOOD

SYSTEMS

Evan Fraser and Krishna KC

Arrell Food Institute and Dept. of Geography

University of Guelph

Goretty Dias

University of Waterloo

Disclosure Slide

• I am the director of the Arrell Food Institute, which is funded by the University of Guelph and the Arrell Family Foundation.

• I am a Canada Research Chair, which is funded by the Canadian Government.

• I am a scientific advisor for the Weston Seeding Food Innovation program.

• I am a board member for the Maple Leaf Centre for Action on Food Security.

• In the past five years I have received funding from:• NSERC, SSHRC, McConnell Foundation, Pierre Elliot Trudeau Foundation, Cdn.

First Research Excellence Fund, and George Weston Ltd.

http://pup.net.au/gallery/large/ARRahmanConcertCrowd%20.jpg

http://www.aljoumhouria.com/files/news/202/images/preview/farm.jpg

“In the next 40 years, humans will need to produce more food than they did in the

previous 10,000 put together.”

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1998776/images/o-DROUGHT-facebook.jpg

https://toolkit.climate.gov/sites/default/files/arctic_meltingglaciers_0.jpg

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Hungry Planetby Peter Menzel and Faith D’Aluisio

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Fruits & Vegetables49%

Cereals and Starches

20%

Milk & Milk Products8%

Meat & Alternatives20%

VE

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Oils & Fats3%

Limit

What we should be eating (Harvard's Healthy Eating Plate Model)

What we are actually producing (According to 2011 FAO)

Fruits & Vegetables

11%

Cereals and Starches47%

VEGOIL

Oils & Fats11%

Sugar16%

Milk and Milk Products4%

Meat & Alternatives11%

KC, and Fraser, et al. Under review.

Dietary Servings / day

10 155

Recommended

ProducedSugar

Dairy

Proteins

Oils and Fats

Fruit and Veg.

Grains

Land use implications of better diets (today)

-130% -100% -70% -40% -10% 20% 50% 80% 110% 140% 170% 200%

Sugar

Oils & Fat

Whole grains

Milk

Fruits & Vegetables

Plant Protein

Livestock Protein

Pasture

Less land More land

Pasture versus arable

• When we only consider arable land, switching to the Harvard Healthy eating plate would save us 51 million ha of land.

• However, much of the world’s protein comes from pasture land and if we keep producing the same amount of meat and dairy on pasture then we’d need an extra 458 m ha of land.

Land use implications of better diets (in the future)

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BAU HHEP (existing meat ratio) HHEP (low meat ratio)

GHG implications of better diets (today)

-130% -100% -70% -40% -10% 20% 50% 80% 110%

Sugar

Oils & Fat

Whole grains

Milk

Livestock Protein

Plant Protein

Fruits & Vegetables

Less GHG More GHG

Bottom line on GHGs

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Current CF based on FAO 2011 HEP Current Population HEP 2050 Population

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Milk Whole grains Fruits & Vegetables Healthy oils Sugar Other (e.g. energy use) TotalCurrent situation based on FAO 2011 Data

HHEP diet for current population

HHEP diet for 9.5 billion people by 2050

Animal Protein

Animal Protein

Animal Protein

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GHG implications of better diets (in the future)

Key results

• Switching to a “healthier” diet will reduce the amount of arable land we need.

• But unless we also increase the amount of plant-based protein this transition will also result in more total land used and more GHGs.

• If we switch to the “healthier diet” and reduce the % of meat in our diet we can save land, reduce GHGs and be healthier.

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Mv4nKnBf08I/Vz3MiV4L0yI/AAAAAAAALBU/gJWoDWzvrlUAW1vsZ2qjEdYdVhAYDmfCgCLcB/s1600/Real%2Bfarm%2Banimals%252C%2Bwallpaper%252C%2Bzoo%2Banimals%252C%2B%2Bcollection%2Bdomestic%2Banimals%2B%25288%2529.jpg

Quorn causes 5 times less GHGs than beef and 1.5 times less than chicken.

http://www.cabi.org/cabdirect/FullTextPDF/2010/20103346525.pdf; see also: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140729081412/http://www.ktponline.org.uk/ktp-provides-carbon-footprint-certification-for-quorn-tm/

Crickets require 12* less feed and 13* less water than cattle Pigs produces 10 - 100 * more GHGs per edible kg as mealworm.http://news.ubc.ca/2014/09/25/bug-bites/

https://arrellfoodinstitute.ca/innovation-awards/

Evan Fraser

Director and Canada Research Chair

Dept. of Geography, University of Guelph

Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph

arrellfoodinstitute.ca

frasere@uoguelph.ca