How might modern civilization fall?

Presentation byJon Roland

June 17, 2014

http://constitution.org

Past analysis: Edward Gibbon

Book: Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (1776-89)

Roman Empire succumbed to barbarian invasions due to gradual loss of civic virtue.

Praetorian Guard was primary catalyst of initial decay and eventual collapse.

But not aware of many other economic, political, and ecological factors: excessive internal predation.

Past analysis: Arnold Toynbee

Book: Study of History (1961)

Examines genesis, growth, breakdown, and disintegration of 19 major civilizations: Egyptian, Andean, Sinic, Minoan, Sumerian, Mayan, Indic, Hittite, Hellenic, Orthodox Christian (Russia), Orthodox Christian (main body), Persian, Mexican, Yucatec, Babylonic, and the surviving WesternWestern, Far EasternFar Eastern, Hindu, and Arabic-IslamicArabic-Islamic.

Each rose by successful responses to challenges that were great enough but not too great, and fell when stagnated from lack of challenge, or could not cope with greater challenges.

Key is leadership by “creative minorities”, and not having too many hostile, alienated external or internal barbarians.

Breakdown occurs when leaders become dominant and predatory, form “universal state”.

Competition among destructive predators brings disintegration.

External threats

Predatory competing civilizations, alien invasion, refugee floods, nuclear war.

Sudden disasters: volcanos, impactors, climate, earthquake, disease, celestial.

Most are challenges that could be met with sufficient preparation, so real challenge and threat is lack of preparation.

All surviving civilizations weak on preparation.

Resource-depletion challenges

Limits to Growth models. Motesharrei-Rivas-Kalnay (MRK) paper. They ignore alternative of urban biospheres,

assume people remain scattered across Earth surface.

Alternative discussed in “Three Futures for Earth”. See http://pynthan.com/vri/3f4e_002.htm

But expensive, a lifeboat for only a few of those now living, even though for many of their descendants.

Limits to Growth models

MRK paper

Starts with predator-prey models, where “prey” are resources.

Examines nonrenewable, renewable, and stream resources, and depletion of each.

Posits wealth-income inequality as predictor of destructive internal conflict.

But in developed countries wealth inequality is inequality of power more than consumption, might become a factor after economic collapse, but that would be enough even without conflict.

Urban biospheres

Space cities

Main threats to modern civilization

Have to lump Far Eastern, Hindu in with Western, but Islamic is on uncertain course due to caliphism

Non-violent, legal predation: rent-seeking Unmanageable complexity Incompetence, magical short-term thinking

Keynesian cult External barbarians: caliphists, terrorists Internal barbarians: lawlessness, mal-bred children Excessive taxing, borrowing, spending Official immunity Ignorant, apathetic voters Easy prosperity, addiction to entertainment

Rentseeking

Unmanageable complexity

Debt bubble

Nuclear terrorism

Official immunity

The way forward - 1

Too late to avoid global economic collapse. But can prepare to endure, come out with

lessons learned and needed reforms. Help one another become good preppers. Educate for austerity, adversity. Move toward strict constitutional compliance,

without which laws, institutions won't be ready. Move away from fiat currencies. Pay off debt.

The way forward - 2

Prepare for decades of chaos, not just months. Secure sources of water, food, power,

medicine. Secure reliable communications: mesh

networking. Organize for mutual defense. Secure reliable, easily maintained transport. Hoard barter goods.

The way forward - 3

Constitutional reforms International reforms Statutory reforms Institutional reforms Financial reforms Educational reforms New technology

Epitaph: Smart enough to create problems they weren't smart enough to solve