How “Hot” is your Inter-Connect? · How “Hot” is your Inter-Connect? ... Issue* ADSL1/2+ VDSL2* VVDSL G.fast* FTTH* line&length& BB& B& B& + + ... 35 Mitigate Non

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How “Hot” is your Inter-Connect?

John M. Cioffi (also W. Abbott, W. Lee, T. Cil, & G. Ginis)

CEO/COB ASSIA

(Professor Emeritus, Stanford EE)

Hot Interconnects August 27, 2014 (Google, Mt. View)

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•  World leader: broadband-access optimization & diagnosis

–  Reduce service disruptions, blocky or sticky video, etc. –  Used on 80M internet connections globally

•  Virtualization of the broadband connection !  All software & services

!  Analysis

!  Optimization

!  Wireless or fixed & speeds

ASSIA Company Intro

Brazil

Latin America ME&A Asia

North America

Hungary

Europe

Jiangsu

+3 provinces

Germany

2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Columbia

Peru

Chile

Argentina

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•  Does FAST make us happy? –  1 Gbps or 100 Mbps (or 10 Mbps)?

–  Are “high” wireless or wireline speeds shared with too many others?

–  Confused by fiber, G.fast Gigabit DSLs, DOCSIS 3.1, LTE-A? •  $$$?

HOT Interconnect à happy consumer

Content

•  Or HOT on what we’d like to do? –  Content (favorite show, game …)

–  Device (where) they view it

–  Video looks good (no stop/sticky or loss)

–  Help when they need it (with no hassle)

–  Price

•  A HOT Key: Stability •  Consistent availability of desired apps

–  DATA: internet slow/out > 5% of the time, consumer complaints "#

–  VIDEO: internet slow/out > 1% of the time, consumer complaints "#

–  Ave speed or Ave peak speed is almost meaningless •  See FCC “Sam Knows” (unfortunately ignores tails = consumer happiness)

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“Internet of Things” Already more devices than people

It’s HARDER and HARDER to be HOT!

•  571M Private Wi-Fi Hot Spots

•  A US family of four has 10 connected devices in the home, 25 in 2017, 50 in 2022

•  16 Billion connections/devices 2014

•  Number of total devices expected to grow to over 40 billion by 2020

Device Trends

679M fixed-line internet connections

ABI Research

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How many interconnects are “cold”?

Instability: Combination of speed variation, packet errors, outages, consumer calls/complaints, the type of app running

•  Based on 90-95% distributions –  Meaning these fractions of customers are seeing worst case 5-10% daily or more frequent

Instability based on field measurements

connec%on Nominal Best (managed) Speed

Fiber (PON) 16% 6% 90 Mbps




Cable 20% -‐-‐-‐ 15 Mbps




Cable 20% -‐-‐-‐ 15 Mbps

ADSL2+ 15% 7% 10 Mbps

VDSL2 18% 7% 25 Mbps

Vec VDSL 45% 8% 75 Mbps




Cable 20% -‐-‐-‐ 15 Mbps

ADSL2+ 15% 7% 10 Mbps

VDSL2 18% 7% 25 Mbps

Vec VDSL 45% 8% 75 Mbps

Wi-‐Fi (11g) 50% 15% 10 Mbps

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Speed Variation (peak-to-ave) à cools off

Source Ra5o

FCC 2013 Report (ave) 80%

1.2 : 1 2 :1

•  BB access connect variation

Single media Fiber, coax, wireless

Router (or PON or cable)

waiting queue

•  Sharing Prob (issue sometimes)

Source Ra5o


1.2 : 1 2 :1

Akamai 2014 ave of 100% (over all)

8:1

Source Ra5o


1.2:1 2:1

Akamai 2014 ave of 100% (over all)

8:1

ASSIA DSLs (95%) DSL’s 80%

4:1 1.3:1

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Comparisons of Bandwidth

•  Neighborhood of 20 homes/units

–  If each receives on a separate connection 100 Mbps, then there is 2 Gbps of bandwidth to the neighborhood

–  If each shares a single connection with 1Gbps, then the speed when all are active is 50 Mbps

–  Which is better?

•  Consumers want consistent use of their favorite applications: this suggests the guaranteed 100 is best

–  And there is a Wi-Fi way to share the “extra Gbps” (later in this talk)

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•  Orange Fiber – my house, Paris, 20 Oct 2013, 18:45

Don’t believe fiber always solves

•  7:05 am, next morning –  Game last night looked bad –  My DSL always ran 6 Mbps

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Where is the cold interconnect?

Routers (DSL, WiFi) and Hubs, Set-‐Top-‐Boxes, Media Players DSLAM

Aggrega5on Network

Broadband Network Gateway

Home Network (Wi-‐Fi or wiring)

Access Network Fiber/xDSL, coax

Edge Network BRAS/CDN

Core Network Big routers

Increasingly likely to affect hotness

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Is it Fair (fast, slow, …)?

“Cloud”

or ?

Is the desired app working?

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Some Supporting Wi-Fi data

Neighborhood (same supplier) of 300 AP’s 3000 devices

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Measurement

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Measure to a server, which one?

“Cloud”

•  Accurate? –  Does it flood link (knock out others)? –  Does it depend on server? –  Throughput? –  Worst-case 90%?

•  Helpful? –  If low, then what?

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•  Equipment provides instantaneous measurement of raw bit rate

–  Not throughput –  Often VERY inaccurate or done with “hog” best-case

settings –  What if something changes?

•  Wi-Fi router reported bit rates cannot be trusted (at all)

–  Computation of actual speed from reported parameters is highly complex optimization program

–  Does not account for crosstalk from other access points

Let the Equipment Report?

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Cloudcheck Enables Holistic Home Network Management and Self Care

Cloudcheck Measurement

Wi-Fi speed (to

AP)

Fixed-line speed (to

edge)

Wireless speed (if available)

Edge/Core to app server

•  Is there a problem?

•  Is the problem Wi-Fi, fixed-line, wireless?

•  Can it be fixed automatically? –  Does the consumer want the fix?

•  Will they pay for it? •  After 30 day trial?

•  Is new equipment necessary? –  If so, what kind?

•  Is Expert help needed? –  On phone, on-line, in-home?

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Some Access Net Measurement Points

•  Within the cloud –  Edge Routers/BRAS

–  Cache servers and CDN’s

–  Core routers

–  Servers

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Wi-Fi “Hot” Spots and Problems

= Coverage (noise) & signal strength

Crosstalk

who controls phy

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Wi-Fi Diagnostics

Issue 11g 11a 11n 11ac 11ad

Signal strength + -‐ + + -‐-‐

•  Who needs Gbps on Wi-Fi if you knock out your neighbor (and they knock out you)? 11ac issue


Signal strength + -‐ + + -‐-‐ Collisions intra LAN inter LAN

-‐-‐ -‐-‐

-‐ -‐

-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐

+ -‐

-‐ +



-‐-‐ -‐-‐

-‐ -‐

-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐

+ -‐

-‐ +

Channels -‐-‐ + + + ++ Bonding (more collisions)

+ + -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐



-‐-‐ -‐-‐

-‐ -‐

-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐

+ -‐

-‐ +


+ + -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

Power/overlap -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐ -‐ +



-‐-‐ -‐-‐

-‐ -‐

-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐

+ -‐

-‐ +


+ + -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

Power/overlap -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐ -‐ + Data rate/codes -‐-‐ -‐ + + +



-‐-‐ -‐-‐

-‐ -‐

-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐

+ -‐

-‐ +


+ + -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

Power/overlap -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐ -‐ + Data rate/codes -‐-‐ -‐ + + + Spa%al MIMO -‐-‐ -‐-‐ + ++ +

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CO

How much Fiber ($) vs copper (¢)

Fiber (FTTN) 0~3Km ADSL2+

8~20 Mbps $150/sub

Fiber (FTTN, FTTC) 0~1Km Vectored VDSL2

ELIMINATES CROSSTALK

50~100 Mbps $300~500/sub

Fiber (PON) 10-‐100 Mbps ? $2500-‐5000/sub

0~3Km ADSL2+

8~20 Mbps $30~50/sub

100~500 Mbps $1400/sub

0~200m G.fast

Fiber (FTTC, FTTB)

Distribu5on Terminal

Feeder Plant

Distribu5on Plant

Drop Plant

splitter

0~6Km ADSL

1~8 Mbps $30~50/sub

FTTH 1 Gbps ? $3000-‐8000/sub

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Last “Mile/km/hm/da-m” Copper issues

Shared

fiber Internet

(“telco”)

Content

OLT/DSLAM

DSL’s and Crosstalk

Crosstalk (or sharing on coax/fiber)

Home NOISE into DSL

(its huge)


Home noises – they’re bad and they vary


Home noises – they’re bad and they vary Length of copper (versus fiber)


Home noises – they’re bad and they vary Length of copper (versus fiber) Where are noises, taps, splices

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FTTx/DSL Diagnostics

Issue ADSL1/2+ VDSL2 VVDSL G.fast FTTH

line length -‐-‐ -‐ -‐ + +

•  Who needs Gbps on FTTx if you knock out your neighbor (and they knock out you)?


line length -‐-‐ -‐ -‐ + + Noises -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ ++



Crosstalk (or sharing)

-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐




-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐

taps -‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐




-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐

taps -‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

splices -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐-‐




-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐

taps -‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

splices -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐-‐ Problem loca%on -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐




-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐

taps -‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

splices -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐-‐ Problem loca%on -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐ Bad equipment -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐-‐

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HFC (Hybrid Fiber Coaxial)

Source : Wikipedia.org

500~2000 home sharing $ Becoming 50~200 for a better service (Extend fiber further as in DSL) Share 38 down/9~27 up Mbps (DOCSIS 1.x~2.0) $ Migrating to 304/108Mbps (DOCSIS 3.0) $ 10/2 Gbps for DOCSIS 3.1 (must change ampls)

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Cocktail Party Effect

TALK LOUD Sorry, can’t hear,

Talk louder

I NEED TO TALK VERY

LOUD

•  Solution: All speak politely at low volume (lower power) –  All send more information (more power and/or higher data rate)

•  This is how dynamic management works with DSLs, Wi-Fi, sharing

•  Each group of people/lines controls itself politely ==> competition

OK, I’ll SHOUT

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•  Is backhaul congested?

•  Caching/multi-cast?

•  Streaming, gaming, … ?

•  Bandwidth to core?

•  Peering arrangements?

•  Is the server just too slow?

Edge/Core Issues

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Optimization

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Basic Optimization and Diagnosis

Diagnos5cs Loop

%  Diagnos5cs ●  copper ●  DSL

%  Upgrade ident.

Consumer OSS, customer care

Reprofiling Loop

%  Automa5c connec5on repair ●  QoS target ●  rate target

Con5nuous collect

All connec5ons

Access Network

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What can be optimized dynamically?

Control (“knob”) goal

Data speed & Power Not too much, not too liele



MIMO Eliminate/reduce xtalk




Channel/frequencies Reduce crosstalk, avoid noise





Codes Correc%on without too much delay






Priority Fairness rela%ve to payment/need







Noise Cancelling Reduce home noises’ effect







Noise Cancelling Reduce home noises’ effect

Resend parameters Minimize collisions

Opt Server

Internet Connection

controls

feedback

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Typical Fixed-line Dynamic Management Fixed Broadband Complaints per 1000 customers/

connections – October 2010 –December 2012, by Quarter

Source : Ofcom on UK fixed broadband providers

Good DM

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Typical Field Wi-Fi Results (11n – 90%)

Before opt Ader opt

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80% results (see improved speeds)

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•  Can direct energy adaptively –  Not completely controllable in practice –  Will get some “spurious” lobes along with desired –  Accuracy is limited by number of antennas, spacing, and movement

•  Theoretically max bandwidth is increased by number of antennas •  802.11n is one user •  802.11ac allows 2-4 users (one for each “lobe”) •  Heaven help other AP’s users in the lobes

MIMO from box vendor standpoint

processor

processor

processor

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Cloud Management of MIMO (7 SSIDs)

User 1 User 2 User 3 User 4

User 5 User 6

User 7 empty

User 1 User 2

Freq Channel

(4 chan’s)

Space Channel

(4 antennas)

•  Basically 16 slots (each say ~ 54 Mbps)

•  How a box vendor does it

•  Cloud managed –  multiple SSIDs

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Vectored DSLs MISO (downstream)

•  Like “MIMO” in wireless •  Proposed, patented, Stanford 2001

•  ITU G.993.5 standard (2009) and G.Fast (2013)

CPE 1

CPE 2

0

Old DSLAM Port 1

Old DSLAM Port 2

crosstalk

“wireless”

Customer 1

Customer 2

Vectored DSLAM

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Vectoring’s major issue: other noises

• Crosstalk removal “exposes” other noises –  Need management of stability

• Particularly true if home wiring involved –  G.FAST uses this wiring (SNR will decrease)

Noise A

NoiseB

Noise C Noise floor

Vectoring does not cancel A,B,C because they are not at transmit Antenna loca%on (only at receiver)

Crosstalk noise

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Mitigate Non-Crosstalk Noise

Achieve high quality of experience Automa%cally reconfigure underperforming lines

Non-‐vectored Vectored

Unm

anaged

Man

aged

15% 45

%

7% 8%

Lines with poor quality

Detect if line is under-‐performing

Analyze individual line data

Apply new configura%on

for line

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•  Software version of owning the hardware –  Differentiate all the way down to physical level

–  Software management of connection speed/stability

Software Unbundling: Smart Vectoring

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DSL Booster

•  Use antennas at receiver –  Other wires or antennas –  Noises (not crosstalk) in the home will get into these antennas and line –  Must be tracked continuously and statistically from the cloud

•  Must cancel the noise causing instability

–  Avoid cancelling the DSL signal itself

Mul% Antenna Bump in wire 0

“wireless” DSL Sig

nal on line

Spurious Lobe

CPE

Noises A Booster

cloud server

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Test # Noise Loop length (kd) Rate

W/o Booster Single ref Mul% ref

1 Broadband 4.5 3.2 13.7 18.9

2 Broadband + 5 narrowband (AM)

4.5 2.8 13.5 19.0

3 VDSL crosstalk 4.5 2.8 12.3 17.4

4 Broadband 9 1.2 7.1 8.0

5 VDSL crosstalk 9 1.2 5.4 5.8

DSL Booster results on difficult connections

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•  Speed increase plus less variation

Some DSL Boosting in field (France)

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•  Note the lines with huge variation (churn) disappear •  All achieved with latest/best DSL modem model

DSL Boosting Statistical

Speed Variation

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USA Noise Variation (DSL) w/wo booster

Data rate varies widely Even for same length, And even for same connection

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DSL/WiFi Gateway

IP Layer Bonding

Broadband Consumer

The Cloud (internet)

DSL/WiFi Gateway

R2

LTE Path/BS

R3

Management & Agg/Deag Server

•  Total data rate R1+R2+R3 –  Remember earlier example of extra 1 Gbps still yet to share –  This is how

•  Allows 100 Mbps to 1.1 Gbps PER Consumer (less sharing) •  Much cheaper than fiber to the customer, and sooner

R1

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Examples:

•  Example A (very low cost): –  LTE at 50 Mbps + 802.11g VDSL/WiFi at 54 Mbps == 100 Mbps

•  LTE may be shared •  54 Mbps Wi-Fi may be shared over a few devices

–  Not all are on the LTE spectra

•  Example B (low cost): –  3 VDSL+ 802.11n Wi-Fi at 108 Mbps each == 324 Mbps –  Sharing limited to 3 living units

•  Example C (medium cost) –  3 G.Fast + 802.11n Wi-Fi at 600 Mbps each == 1.8 Gbps –  Sharing limited to 3 living units

•  Example D Fiberhood FTTH (very high cost) –  1 fiber to each residence at 1 Gbps + 1 Gbps Wi-Fi 802.11ac –  Sharing limited to 1 living unit

•  Consumers would probably be very very happy on Option A –  And if offered today might switch to it from anything more expensive or slower

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How “Hot” is Your Interconnect?

•  It can be pretty hot –  Cloud management will increase the temperature a lot!

•  Steps –  Diagnostics (like Cloudcheck)

–  Analysis (temporal, spatial, across users, networks)

–  Optimization of access links

•  This Cloud Management is what is needed, not replacing the physical connections

–  Its what the consumers really want

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Back Up

[email protected]

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xDSL Speeds Up with ASSIA opportunity

Source : TNO 2012

Bandwidth (bps)

Reach

G.fast

Vectoring VDSL

VDSL2

ADSL2+

ADSL2 ADSL

2002

2003

2007

2014

2018+

6Km 3Km 1500m 500m 200m

In Standardization

Commercially Deployed

1G

500M

100M

50M

20M

8M

1M

FTTEx FTTC/B FTTdp

G.now/hn

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More Speed - Means Unstable Connections

DSLAM

Core Internet

More Speed

20 Mbps

More Costs

More Calls

15 Mbps

Content

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ASSIA Stabilizes Last Mile Connections

Service Provider

Core Internet

Makes Your Connection Run Faster and Smoother

Content

SOFTWARE & associated solutions

ASSIA

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Return on 35euro/month (8 euro profit)

0 50

100 150 200 250 300 350

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37

•  3 year return on access investment –  About the limit for most telcos/investors

–  300€ is practical limit to invest for retention of existing subscriber (@8€ profit)

•  Examples:

–  AT&T iPhone subsidies about $400

–  DT FTTN is 300€/customer for 100 Mbps VDSL connection

•  DT reports 2000-4000€/customer for FTTH (concludes too expensive)

•  Pay more in mergers (2x – based on operational cuts possible)

•  Numericable purchase of SFR (higher profit > 8 euro) –  650 euro/customer ($1000)

Cumulative profit

months

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Drivers for Vectored VDSL Cost Advantage

–  FTTC + Vectoring is significantly cheaper than FTTH and vectoring likely to add only 50-‐100 USD per line

Time to Market Advantage

–  Compe%%on from Cable Operator –  Less Civil Works compared to FTTH

Stable Standards on ASSIA patented vectored technology

2 Vectored Chip Providers already licensed (Ikanos & Lan%q), more soon

Operators move towards VDSL vectoring •  Deutsche Telekom-‐ September 2012 DT announced

vectored VDSL coverage to 24 million homes by 2017. –  ASSIA investor and customer

•  Telecom Italia-‐ September 2012, TI announced plans for FTTC to 6.1 million homes by end 2016. Belgacom, KPN, Swisscom in Europe all star%ng

•  AT&T-‐ November 2012 announced its Project VIP to extend U Verse FTTN coverage by 8.5 million homes by 2015, and 1 Gbps plans announced 2014.

–  ASSIA licensed AT&T on VVDSL in 2013

•  Australia – NBNCo, Sept 2013 elec%on turns on FTTN to replace earlier FTTH plans

•  Korea Telecom – now inves%ga%ng 200-‐500 Mbps DSLs for their FTTB deployment (20+M homes)

Market moves to deployment of Vectored VDSL [ASSIA invented VVDSL, licensed VVDSL, and manages VVDSL]

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Fixed-Line Customers and Total

Source : Point Topic Data thru Q4-2013 published Q3-13, ASSIA analysis

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Single media Fiber, coax, wireless

Router (or PON)

•  If all the single-media is less than sum of consumer bandwidths, then some users must wait (can be random) a long amount of time

–  1 Gbps divided over 20 residences x 5 users each = 10 Mbps

The multiplexing/priority-flow issue

waiting queue

Documents

How “Hot” is your Inter-Connect? · How “Hot” is your Inter-Connect? ... Issue* ADSL1/2+ VDSL2* VVDSL G.fast* FTTH* line&length& BB& B& B& + + ... 35 Mitigate Non