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How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Unmasking the Black Box
Stephen Jascourt* UCAR/COMET at NWS HeadquartersBill Bua UCAR/COMET at NCEPGreg Byrd UCAR/COMET at UCAR
How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast?
Example: Model runs from 00 UTC 8 Oct 2007
Fire weather danger over northeast Nevada?
NOAA/NCEP
NAM 48-h forecast at Elko, NV SREF 48-h probability [no precip, RH<20%,wind>20MPH,T>60F]
RH? Forecast T, mixing
depth
X Elko
How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast?
Example: Model runs from 00 UTC 8 Oct 2007
Position, strength of lakes cut-off? Frost potential?
GFS ensembles 72 h valid 00Z 11 Oct500 hPa 558 dm
NOAA/NCEP
NOAA/NCEP
NOAA/NCEP
NOAA/NCEP
2-m T oC 84 h valid 12Z Oct 11
NAM
GFS
UNMASKING THE BLACK BOX
8 years of NWP training
Navigation, how to find it1. MetEd site2. Operational Models Matrix
• Individual NWP models, ensembles, wave models• NWP Course (conceptual background)• Model-specific information• Forums• Ensemble module
3. Case examples – what happened, why4. VISITview teletraining – integrates content, cases5. COMET Webcast modules – integrates content, cases6. Seasonal Powerpoints – summaries, cases
NAVIGATION MetEd home: www.meted.ucar.edu
NAVIGATION MetEd home: www.meted.ucar.edu
NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
NWP COURSENavigationpanel Content panel
NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
Content is updated as models change!
MODEL-SPECIFIC CONTENT
NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
NAVIGATION Discussion forums
NAVIGATION Operational Models Matrix
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/
MODULES Ensemble Forecasting ExplainedNavigationpanel Content panel
NAVIGATION Cases
www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/
CASES How Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis
Navigation panel Content panel
CASES How Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis
CASES How Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis
5-10 oC coolerthan first guess
nearly sameas first guess
Smooths out changesto first guess
NAVIGATION VISITview Teletraining http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/topic_nwp.html
VISIT SESSIONS NAM-WRF Update and Performance Discussion Lake-effect heavy snow, why good forecast?
NAVIGATION MetEd home: www.meted.ucar.edu
WEBCASTS Using the WRF Mesoscale Model [AFWA]
Lots of data shown, user challenged to explain, predict, and verify during the module
WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF Model
WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF ModelModel change summary and forecast impacts
WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF ModelPrecipitation type algorithm change: affects diagnosed type
WEBCASTS Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
SEASONAL TRAINING Convective Parameterization“Convective Weather Refresher” under “Convective Weather” topic on MetEd home page
SUMMARY
8 years of NWP training
Navigation, how to find itStart: MetEd site www.meted.ucar.edu
Register (free), log inSelect NWP under TOPICSOperational Models Matrix (www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/)
• Individual NWP models, ensembles, wave models• NWP Course (conceptual background)• Model-specific information• Forums• Ensemble module
Case examples (www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/)COMET Webcast modules – integrates content, casesSeasonal Powerpoints – summaries, cases, content
VISITview teletraining – integrates content, cases http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/topic_nwp.html
