How do psychologists

answer questions? Module 2

1. Why is psychology “fuzzier” than hard sciences? 2. Why do psychologists struggle to be accepted as

scientists? (Why not just do theoretical and philosophical work and throw empiricism to the wind?)

3. Why can’t we just rely on intuition and common sense in understanding the workings of the human mind?

4. What does the term “Hindsight is 20/20” mean? 5. How does “Hindsight is 20/20” apply to the

scientific method?

Stinger

Why are the answers that flow from the scientific

approach more reliable than those based on common sense and intuition?

How do psychologists use the scientific method to construct theories?

The limits of intuition and common sense Intuition can lead a person astray Some questions are not intuitive

How big is paper folded 100 times? How many people need to be in a group in order to have a

50% chance of sharing a birthday? Notions of common sense err also

Thinking Critically With Psychological

Science

Doctors see cause of death as self-evident if presented with both a case study and an autopsy, but have trouble predicting death without the autopsy (Dawson, et al 1998)

Slovic and Fischoff( 1977) and Wood (1979): Psychology studies SEEM like common sense Does absence make the heart grow fonder? Out of sight out of mind? Anecdotal evidence exists to support both claims.

witnesses much more sure of suspect if they are told which one is being suspected. Wells and Bradfield (1998):all students made false identification

after watching a grainy video, but the ones who were told they did it right recalled greater confidence

Post hoc ergo propter hoc Describes better than predicts

The Hindsight Bias

We are all observers of behavior Science proves a human “need to belong” Sometimes common sense is wrong

Familiarity breeds contempt? Dreams predict the future? Pre menstrual syndrome involves emotionality?

Overconfidence We think we know more than we do We are more confident than correct Underestimation of unscramble task (Goranson 1978)

Common Sense

How long would it take you to unscramble

Wreat -> Water Etryn -> Entry Grabe -> Barge

Now unscramble OCHSA

Unscramble task

Collegians predicting voting behavior, dropping a

class, calling home, etc. were correct 71% of the time. (Vallone 1990)

Tetlock (1998) Asked experts to predict political, economic, and

military situation five years out Experts asked to recollect after five years The more confident the expert felt, the less correct

he was (80%+ confidence = 40%- correct) Despite getting things wrong, they could all justify

the ways in which they were right.

Predicting our Own Behavior

Give evidence for the saying “absence makes

the heart grow fonder.” Give evidence for the saying “out of sight, out

of mind” Why might you be able to find evidence for

both of these? What, then, does common sense tell you

about these terms? How might you go about testing them?

Stop and Review

Testing claims

Moses (test the claims of the prophet) James Randi and the Aura seers Meteorites?

Skeptical but not cynical Humility: the ability to reject your own ideas “The rat is always right!” Critical Thinking

Examine assumptions Discern hidden valuse Evaluate evidence Assess conclusions

The scientific attitude

Massive brain loss in early life has minimal long-

term effects. Within days, newborns recognize their mothers’

odor and voice. Brain damage can leave a person able to learn

new skills yet be unaware of them. Diverse groups report similar levels of personal

happiness Electroconvulsive therapy is a good treatment

for sever depression.

Surprising findings!

The midlife crisis is a psychological

phenomenon. Mothers suffer from “empty nest syndrome.” Sleepwalkers are not acting out their dreams. Sleep talkers are not talking through their

dreams. Past experiences are not indelibly and

permanent recorded in our brains and cannot be access in full through hypnosis.

Most people do NOT suffer from low self-esteem.

Opposites do not attract.

What you believe, but is wrong

Exit Ticket

What common perception can YOU test using a scientific attitude? How would you test it?

Homework Review your notes. Define the following and give an example of each.

Hindsight bias Critical Thinking

Write three questions that you wish to know more about.

Exit Ticket and Homework