How Do Citizens “Reason” about Politics and “Learn” in a Political … · 2020. 11. 25. · I Citizens that engage in politics may be less likely to be troubled by disagreement

How Do Citizens “Reason” about Politics and “Learn”in a Political Context?

Carlos Algara

7 [email protected] https://calgara.github.io

February 14, 2019

Pol 157: American Public Opinion Week 4: Citizen Reasoning & Learning

mailto:[email protected]://calgara.github.io

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Teaching Agenda

1 Information, Persuasion & Political Communication networks

2 Role of Endogenous Preferences in Reasoning

3 Explicit Self-Interest in Reasoning

4 Do Citizens Learn in a Political Context?

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Citizen Reasoning & Learning Question

Motivating QuestionHow do you think citizens “reason” and “learn” about politics? In ademocracy, what do you think the fundamental role of the “group basis” isfor representation?

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Thinking of the Group Basis of Politics–Networks

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Setting the Stage

I The importance of context in political science shaped early work onpolitical science

I First studies used to assess the heterogenity of political opinion givengeographic contexts

I Example: V.O. Key’s Southern Politics assessing white racialantagonism across demographic varying counties in the U.S. South

I Evolution of geographic studies to how citizen network “reason”about politics

I Methodological challenge: how should political scientists study theeffects of information & persuasion on citizen political behavior?

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Setting the Stage

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Setting the Stage

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Setting the Stage

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Setting the Stage

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Persuasion as Interdependent Processes

Avoiding the Ecological Fallacy Problem“Ignoring individual interdependence creates the potential for specifyingthe effects of both the individual and the aggregate factors that underliepolitical behavior.” (Huckfeldt 2009)

I Example: Why does environment matter for evaluating how citizensform political behavior?

I Consider the example in Sweden: Why would working-class voters bemore likely to vote for Socialist Parties?

I Ecological & Individual Fallacies underpin the importance ofconsidering social networks in the study of political reasoning &learning

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Defining of Interdependent ProcessesEndogenity of Social Networks“This abstract life space might be created in response to the numerouslocations of the individual in time, space, and social structure, therebyincluding all the opportunities that an individual has for social interaction.Conceived in such a manner, networks must be seen as being endogeneousboth to individual preference and to the contexts where individuals arelocated.” (Huckfeldt 2009)

I What does this mean for the interdependence between citizens andnetworks? What are the implications for reasoning about politics?

I Role of Misinformation in Networks: “. . . not only are mainrespondents less likely to perceive a discussant’s viewpoints accuratelyif they disagree with the discussant, but they are also less likely toperceive a discussant’s viewpoints accurately if they believe that otherindividuals in the network hold a preference that is different from thatreported by the particular discussant.”

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Reasoning in NetworksI Little evidence to suggest that individuals are uncomfortable to

acknowledge political disagreement–why?

I Citizens that engage in politics may be less likely to be troubled bydisagreement or feel disagreement as “extreme or unreasonable” giventhe inherent subjective nature of politics

The Role of “Opinionated” Citizens“Citizens with strong, unambiguous preferences are more likely to becorrectly perceived, and they are, correspondingly, more likely to beinfluential. it is not that individuals with strong preferences are incapableof recognizing disagreement when they encounter it, citizens with strongpreferences are excellent messengers, and their ability to perceive themessages of others is not compromised.”

I What does this mean about the ability of citizens as “opinion-leaders”of their network?

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Motivating Question

Key Motivating Question

I Why is it important for political scientists to study networks and the“group-basis” of political behavior?

I How do you think citizens “reason” in political networks?

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Motivating Question

Key Motivating Question

I Why is it important for political scientists to study networks and the“group-basis” of political behavior?

I How do you think citizens “reason” in political networks?

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Reasoning in Networks

I Mediated effects: co-partisans are more likely to talk to theirco-partisans about politics.

I “Disagreement is more likely to be sustained in these circumstancesbecause disagreeing individuals frequently receive support for theirpreferences elsewhere in their communication networks, fromindividuals who are not connected to the source of disagreement.”

I Normative implications about persuasion of political tolerance,manipulation by “elites”, democratic preferences?

I What about the role of networks in solving collective action problemsin terms of political participation?

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The Role of Endogenous Preferences in Reasoning: Income

I “A key characteristic of democracy is the continuing responsiveness ofthe government to the preferences of its citizens, considered aspolitical equals.” -Robert Dahl

I Recall that the ideal democratic citizens is “expected to be wellinformed about political affairs. He is supposed to know what theissues are, what their history is, what the relevant facts are, what thealternative ares . . . [and] what the likely consequences are.”

I Against backdrop, Martin Gilens asks: “How the preferences of thepublic are related to the policy decisions of the national government,and how equally influence over government policy extends to moreand less well-off Americans.”

I Why would the ability to “reason” about political affairs vary by anendogenous preference, such as income?

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Variation in Policy Congruence: Agreement on Issues

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Variation in Policy Congruence: Disagreement on Issues

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Example: Social Security & Senior Citizens

I Research Question? While the literature suggests that lower-incomecitizens are less mobilized to participate in politics, do these patternshold among senior citizens eligible for receiving social securitybenefits?

I Why would senior citizens, particularly those of low-income, bemotivated to participate in politics?

I Theory: Seniors reason and participate about politics on the basis ofsocial security, with low-income citizens participating more in politicsby being motivated by preferences & “stakes.”

I Key mechanism → “dependence on government transfers” (Campbell2002)

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The Stakes: Reasoning around Income Share

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Variation in Political Interest by Income & Topic

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Variation in Political Mobilization among Seniors &Non-Seniors

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Citizen Capacity to UpdateI Fundamental distinction between misinformation & uninformed–what

do you think this distinction is and why would this matter?

I Misinformation can be subject to partisan bias–example: belief ofWMDs in Iraq war

I Recall resistance axiom: citizens may fail to update political beliefs &preferences in the face of new information

I Nyhan & Reifler (2010) use two rounds of experiments to assess theextent to to which corrective inform reducing prominentmisconceptions about politics

I First experiment: Test effects of a correction embedded in a newsreport on beliefs that Iraq had weapons of mass destructionimmediately before the U.S. invasion.

I Second experiment: Test effects of a correction embedded in a newsreport on beliefs that Bush tax cuts increased government revenue

I Third experiment: Test effects of a correction embedded in a newsreport on beliefs that Bush administration banned stem cell research

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Doubling Down on Misconceptions

Dependent variable: Level of agreement, on a scale from “strongly disagree” (1) to“strongly agree” (5) with the following question “Immediately before the U.S. invasion,Iraq had an active weapons of mass destruction program, the ability to produce theseweapons, and large stockpiles of WMD, but Saddam Hussein was able to hide or destroythese weapons right before U.S. forces arrived.” ↑ Agreement = ↑ Misconception

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Dependent variable: Same as previous side. . . ↑ Agreement = ↑ Misconception

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Dependent variable: Level of agreement, on a scale from “strongly disagree” (1) to“strongly agree” (5) with the following question “President Bush has banned stem cellresearch in the United States.” ↑ Agreement = ↑ Misconception

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Dependent variable: Level of agreement, on a scale from “strongly disagree” (1) to“strongly agree” (5) with the following question “President Bush’s tax cuts haveincreased government revenue.” ↑ Agreement = ↑ Misconception

Key Points1 Early political scientists recognized the importance of context in the

study of citizen political reasoning by focusing on geography2 Contemporary political scientists focus on the role social networks

play in how citizens reason and learn about politics; these areexogenous factors

I Social networks allow citizens to select who to discuss politics with &ultimately has bearing in how individual preferences are formed

3 However, there is a normative down-side, that misinformation maypersist in these social networks (be aware of Nyhan & Reifler’sexperimental findings of how citizens fail to correct formisconceptions in political beliefs)

4 Preferences and reasoning may be endogenous and rooted in rationalself-interest, such as social security preferences among the elderly

5 Citizens are generally able to learn about politics, but this is limitedon their prior held beliefs and political values

Information, Persuasion & Political Communication networksRole of Endogenous Preferences in ReasoningExplicit Self-Interest in ReasoningDo Citizens Learn in a Political Context?

Documents

How Do Citizens “Reason” about Politics and “Learn” in a Political … · 2020. 11. 25. · I Citizens that engage in politics may be less likely to be troubled by disagreement