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The 2020 FIU Cuba Poll: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba

How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

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Page 1: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

The 2020 FIU Cuba Poll:

How Cuban-Americans in Miami

View U.S. Policies toward Cuba

Page 2: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

The 2020 Cuba Poll

• Telephone surveys (cell phone and

landline) of 1,002 randomly selected

Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade

County.

• Results weighted to be representative of

the Cuban-American community of Miami-

Dade County as a whole.

• Interviews completed July 7-Aug. 17

2020.

• Margin of error is plus or minus 3.1%.

• 14th in the series of Cuba Polls conducted

since 1991.

Sponsors:

• Steven J. Green School of

International and Public

Affairs

• Office of the President

• Division of External Relations

• Cuban Research Institute

• Kimberly Green Latin

American and Caribbean

Center

• Department of Global and

Sociocultural Studies

Page 3: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Structure of Presentation

For each question presented, respondents are categorized into four

groups:

1. Total responses to the question (General Population)

2. Responses by age categories

3. Responses by Migration wave (before and after 1995) and nativity

(birth outside of Cuba--second and third generations)

4. Voter Registration by Party or No Party Affiliation

Page 4: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Close Relatives or Significant Others Living in Cuba?

1 30

30

32

27

27

34

34

16

54

31

34

37

8

70

70

68

73

73

66

66

84

46

69

66

63

92

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK No Yes

Page 5: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Response Patterns to Watch For

The older respondents, the pre-1995 migrants and registered Republicans

cluster as more supportive of isolationist policies and attitudes.

The younger respondents, Cuban-Americans born outside of Cuba, and

registered Democrats cluster as more supportive of engagement policies.

Non-citizens, a majority of whom are recent arrivals, also tend to cluster

with those more supportive of engagement policies.

Page 6: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Contextualizing the Cuban

Population in South Florida

Page 7: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Population Estimates: Hispanics, Cuban, Non-

Hispanics (National, Florida, Miami-Dade County)

0.7

7.2

36.3

17.1

18.0

31.8

82.2

74.8

31.9

0.0 25.0 50.0 75.0 100.0

National

Florida

Miam-Dade

Cuban Other Hispanic Non-Hispanic

Page 8: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Table 1: Cubans in Miami Dade County:

Migration/Nativity, Age, Gender, Race (ACS and Sample Estimates)

ACS (2018) Cuba Poll (2020 weighted)

Nativity & immigrant cohort

Cuba

Migrated before 1980 19.2 19.6

Migrated in 1980-1994 15.2 15.5

Migrated in 1995-2009 29.8 30.4

Migrated in 2010-2020 15.0 13.6

United States 19.1 19.5

Other countries 1.6 1.5

Age group

18-39 29.5 30.0

40-59 36.2 36.9

60-75 20.2 19.1

75 or older 14.1 14.0

Gender

Male 48.6 49.3

Female 51.4 50.7

Race

White 95.4 80.0

Black 1.9 3.6

Other 2.8 16.5

Years of education 12.5 14.3

(3.5) (2.9)

Note: The Cuba Poll results are weighted toward ACS using a three-way weight

based on nativity/immigrant cohort, age, and gender.

Sources: 2020 Cuba Poll; American Community Survey 2014-2018 5-year sample.

Page 9: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Table 2: Estimated Number of Registered Cuban

Voters by Party

All Hispanic Cuban All Hispanic Cuban

Republican 4,927,507 587,552 367,233 398,542 294,020 253,830

Democrat 5,167,930 920,324 180,227 622,818 272,397 124,572

Other 3,795,933 866,043 150,325 478,734 305,050 103,904

Total registered 13,891,370 2,373,919 697,785 1,500,094 871,467 482,306

Notes: Non-Cuban numbers are official voter registration data as of July 30, 2020.

Cuban numbers are estimated based on American Community Survey 2014-2018 5-year sample,

2020 Cuba Poll, and offical Florida voter registration data.

Florida Miami-Dade

Page 10: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Estimated Voter Registration by Party: Miami-Dade

County(By Cuban/Hispanic/Non-Hispanic)

52.6

10.3

16.6

21.5

51.7

27.6

25.8

38.0

55.7

0.0 25.0 50.0 75.0 100.0

Cuban

Other Hispanic

Non-Hispanic

Republican Independent Democrat

Page 11: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

The Embargo

Page 12: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

How Well Has the Embargo Worked?

7 9

10

16

10

9

9

13

9

7

15

6

4

11

17

19

19

17

20

18

19

19

19

21

19

11

23

25

27

22

23

28

31

26

22

40

27

28

27

23

41

44

42

50

43

43

41

51

35

36

47

59

44

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Worked very well Worked well Worked not very well No working at all

Page 13: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Favor or Oppose Continuation of Embargo?

8 39

43

49

45

46

33

55

43

21

61

30

14

46

15

17

11

16

16

20

13

13

28

13

24

14

14

14

15

16

10

14

18

10

15

23

11

14

23

20

24

26

25

29

24

28

22

29

27

15

31

48

20

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Strongly favor Mostly favor Mostly oppose Strongly oppose

Page 14: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for Embargo 2020

60

68

54

40

32

46

0 25 50 75 100

Total

Pre-1995 immigrants

All others

Favor embargo Oppose embargo

Page 15: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Opinions on the maintenance of the embargo and support for

diplomatic relations

(2007-2020)

60

56

47

34

47

59

54 54

66

72

67

59

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

embargo diplomatic

Page 16: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Other Economic Relationships

Page 17: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Temporary Suspension of Sanctions due to Covid-19

6 29

31

30

45

29

27

38

33

18

40

29

16

29

8

8

10

4

9

9

9

7

9

7

3

7

22

17

18

11

20

17

20

18

13

27

18

17

20

15

40

43

49

32

45

44

36

47

45

35

51

56

35

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Strongly disagree Somewhat disagree Somewhat agree Strongly agree

Page 18: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for Selling of Food to Cuba

5 2122

2128

2219

341616

3515

1211

88

98

89

106

11

116

77

2425

2815

2728

2225

32

2028

3028

4244

4248

4345

3553

41

355150

53

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)Total

76+60-7540-5918-39

Mig. before 1995Mig. since 1995Not Cuba-born

RepublicanIndependent

DemocratNon-citizen

DK Strongly oppose Mostly oppose Mostly favor Strongly favor

Page 19: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for the Selling of Medicine to Cuba

4 1718

1226

1815

2611

17

2615

129

78

89

78

95

12

910

55

2526

2920

2630

2624

33

2330

3124

4648

5146

4947

3860

38

4246

5261

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)Total

76+60-7540-5918-39

Mig. before 1995Mig. since 1995Not Cuba-born

RepublicanIndependent

DemocratNon-citizen

DK Strongly oppose Mostly oppose Mostly favor Strongly favor

Page 20: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Should Allow the Continuation of Cruise Operations?

5 48

50

57

56

52

42

61

49

36

66

43

27

35

7

8

9

9

6

9

9

5

11

6

10

8

11

15

15

8

16

15

18

9

16

24

8

20

24

27

25

27

27

19

26

31

20

30

30

19

28

41

27

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Strongly disagree Somewhat disagree Somewhat agree Strongly agree

Page 21: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

General Policy Approaches

Page 22: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Does Cuba Pose a Threat to American Vital Interests?

5 3537

4742

4126

5136

16

5138

1427

88

76

613

84

17

98

104

1414

111314

17

1314

19

1310

2216

3840

353939

44

2746

47

2745

5453

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)Total

76+60-7540-5918-39

Mig. before 1995Mig. since 1995Not Cuba-born

RepublicanIndependent

DemocratNon-citizen

DK Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Page 23: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Policies Should Exert Maximum Pressure on Government to

Promote Regime Change

7 55

59

55

65

63

54

64

59

53

66

61

44

60

13

14

8

12

15

19

9

15

21

12

11

21

19

7

8

7

2

8

12

4

8

14

6

9

10

8

17

18

31

22

14

15

22

18

12

16

19

25

13

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Page 24: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Policies Directed Specifically to Improve Economic

Well-Being of Cuban People

6 22

23

31

31

22

17

34

18

17

31

30

7

15

6

6

3

6

8

5

6

6

7

6

7

5

5

21

22

15

16

21

31

16

19

37

22

21

28

21

45

48

51

47

49

47

43

56

40

42

43

60

59

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Strongly disagree Somewhat disagree Somewhat agree Strongly agree

Page 25: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for Maintaining Diplomatic Relations

5 32

34

42

42

33

25

49

31

14

49

28

11

26

7

8

8

3

10

8

7

7

10

8

3

9

11

21

22

16

20

22

27

18

21

32

20

22

26

20

35

36

33

35

36

40

26

41

44

23

46

54

43

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Strongly oppose Mostly oppose Mostly favor Strongly favor

Page 26: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Agree with the Suspension of the Issuing of Visas at

Embassy in Havana?

5 26

28

35

32

29

20

40

22

21

38

24

13

21

10

11

6

11

10

14

11

8

17

12

10

12

5

16

17

19

10

18

19

15

16

22

13

19

18

25

42

45

40

47

43

48

35

54

40

37

47

58

49

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Page 27: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Reinstatement of the Wet Foot/Dry Foot policy

3 40

42

43

46

44

36

47

40

37

46

42

35

42

11

11

8

8

13

13

8

12

15

8

9

16

10

13

14

14

11

13

15

11

11

22

12

14

20

11

32

34

35

35

31

36

34

37

26

33

35

29

38

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Strongly oppose Somewhat oppose Somewhat support Strongly support

Page 28: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for the Suspension of Family Reunification

Parole Program

3 30

31

48

38

30

19

45

24

22

44

27

14

20

9

9

8

6

12

10

11

6

13

14

7

4

5

12

13

14

9

14

12

11

11

18

10

12

13

19

46

47

30

47

45

59

33

58

47

32

54

69

56

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

Page 29: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for Unrestricted Travel for All Americans

5 39

41

47

42

43

34

56

36

27

52

38

20

35

12

12

14

10

12

13

13

11

14

13

8

12

15

16

17

11

15

18

21

13

16

26

15

17

22

20

29

30

28

33

28

32

18

38

33

20

37

46

30

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Strongly oppose Mostly oppose Mostly favor Strongly favor

Page 30: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Send Remittances to Relatives

1 51

52

57

53

45

57

60

34

77

58

51

56

33

47

48

43

47

55

43

40

66

23

42

49

44

67

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK No Yes

Page 31: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Have You Traveled to Cuba Since Leaving?

0 4747

4650

4152

6024

72

5252

5512

5353

5450

5948

4076

28

4848

4588

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)Total

76+60-7540-5918-39

Mig. before 1995Mig. since 1995Not Cuba-born

RepublicanIndependent

DemocratNon-citizen

DK No Yes

Page 32: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Airlines Should be able to Reestablish Services to All

Regions of Island

5 26

27

29

31

27

25

36

23

21

37

28

14

8

7

7

7

7

6

10

7

4

13

7

9

9

3

14

14

12

12

14

18

15

10

22

13

14

20

14

48

51

52

50

54

47

41

62

44

43

49

57

74

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Strongly disagree Somewhat disagree Somewhat agree Strongly agree

Page 33: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Importance of Some National Policies

Page 34: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Ranking the Importance of Key Issues: By Age4

.76

4.4

7

4.8

1

4.9

0

4.6

9

4.6

8

4.6

8

4.7

6

4.7

1

4.5

8

4.0

9

3.8

4 3.9

3

4.1

2 4.2

6

4.0

4

4.0

0

4.0

5

4.0

1

4.0

8

3.8

2

3.3

7

3.7

8 3.9

5

3.8

9

3.8

1

3.8

1

3.7

8

3.8

3

3.7

9

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Total 76+ 60-75 40-59 18-39

Economy Health care Race Immigration China policies Cuba policies

Page 35: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Importance of Key Issues: by Migration Wave/Nativity4

.76

4.7

4 4.8

3

4.6

4

4.6

8

4.7

2

4.7

6

4.4

4

4.0

9

3.8

6

4.2

3

4.1

7

4.0

4

4.0

2

4.0

7

4.0

0

3.8

2

3.8

2

3.7

3

4.0

1

3.8

1

3.7

1

4.0

1

3.5

5

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Total Mig. before 1995 Mig. since 1995 Not Cuba-born

Economy Health care Race Immigration China policies Cuba policies

Page 36: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Importance of Key Issues: by Voter Registration4

.76

4.8

2

4.7

4

4.5

1

4.9

3

4.6

8

4.5

8 4.6

6 4.7

6 4.9

0

4.0

9

3.8

8

4.2

0 4.3

0

4.3

2

4.0

4

4.0

0

4.0

6

3.9

3

4.2

1

3.8

2 3.9

5

3.8

4

3.6

7

3.5

8

3.8

1

3.8

7

3.7

5

3.5

6

4.0

1

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Total Republican Independent Democrat Non-citizen

Economy Health care Race Immigration China policies Cuba policies

Page 37: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for President Trumps

Handing of Key National Issues

Page 38: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for the Trump’s Handling of Specific Issues:

Immigration

5 44

46

58

51

48

37

56

47

29

68

33

11

50

17

18

11

18

18

21

20

14

21

18

22

12

17

11

11

12

3

12

15

4

16

13

7

11

13

21

23

25

19

28

22

28

19

23

37

7

33

65

12

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Stronly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

Page 39: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for the Trump’s Handling of Specific Issues:

Healthcare

7 40

44

52

56

40

37

51

46

26

61

40

8

51

21

23

22

20

27

20

25

22

22

25

19

18

33

10

10

9

3

10

15

6

11

16

9

12

10

7

21

23

17

21

22

28

17

21

36

5

29

65

9

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Stronly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

Page 40: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for the Trump’s Handling of Specific Issues:

Race Relations

5 35

37

50

39

37

31

47

38

19

56

27

7

43

17

18

15

23

19

16

21

14

21

25

19

10

10

13

14

16

6

18

14

7

22

8

9

12

10

33

29

31

20

32

26

40

24

25

52

11

42

74

15

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Stronly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

Page 41: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for the Trump’s Handling of Specific Issues:

Nationwide Protests

5 36

39

51

37

40

33

47

38

26

56

32

14

35

15

16

15

22

14

14

18

15

15

16

18

10

18

14

14

8

15

16

14

12

18

11

12

13

11

26

30

31

26

26

30

39

24

29

49

17

37

65

20

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Stronly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

Page 42: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for the Trump’s Handling of Specific Issues:

Cuba Policy

7 45

48

50

54

52

38

55

51

29

65

36

11

66

17

18

20

18

18

18

22

15

19

21

21

15

13

10

11

10

6

9

16

6

10

21

7

14

16

7

22

23

20

22

21

28

18

24

31

7

29

58

15

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Stronly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

Page 43: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for the Trump’s Handling of Specific Issues:

China Policy

11 46

52

43

56

58

45

57

55

38

69

47

16

58

17

19

26

18

16

19

19

20

16

19

16

16

29

10

11

6

9

11

15

7

11

17

5

17

15

8

17

19

26

17

16

22

18

15

29

7

21

53

4

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Stronly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

Page 44: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for the Trump’s Handling of Specific Issues:

Covid-19 Crisis

3 41

42

47

50

4532

51

4520

59

2710

56

22

23

26

22

2124

23

2420

24

2419

22

9

10

8

8

1110

7

1111

8

1311

8

25

26

19

20

2335

18

2049

9

3660

14

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)Total

76+

60-75

40-5918-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)Reg. Indpt. (or will)Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Stronly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

Page 45: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Support for the Trump’s Handling of Specific Issues:

Economy

4 62

65

62

70

70

57

72

68

47

85

58

24

74

14

15

14

14

13

18

13

16

15

7

17

22

20

9

9

7

6

7

13

6

6

18

4

11

20

2

11

12

17

10

10

12

9

10

20

4

14

34

3

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

DK Stronly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

Page 46: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Politics Writ Large

Page 47: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Conservatism-Liberalism Continuum

3.23

3.10

3.05

3.26

3.37

2.74

3.42

3.65

2.35

3.59

4.25

3.86

1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

Page 48: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Citizens

13

0

0

1

7

11

61

11

0

87

100

100

99

93

89

39

89

100

0 25 50 75 100

Total

prior to 1959

1959-1964

1965-1979

1980-1994

1995-2009

2010-2020

Born in other countries

Born in U.S.

Non-US citizen US citizen

Page 49: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Registered Voters

(of citizens by party registration)

53

67

56

68

59

49

76

40

25

24

11

22

17

25

31

20

24

38

23

22

22

15

16

20

5

36

38

0 25 50 75 100

Total

prior to 1959

1959-1964

1965-1979

1980-1994

1995-2009

2010-2015

Born in U.S.

Born in other countries

Republican Independent Democrat

Page 50: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Party Affiliation Over Time

(2007-2020)

68

49

45

49

51

53

15

24

25

29

30

24

17

27

29

23

20

23

0 25 50 75 100

2007

2010

2014

2016

2018

2020

Republican Independent Democrat

Page 51: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Likelihood to Vote in November Election

1 90

90

92

92

94

85

93

89

89

94

88

87

8

8

7

8

5

11

6

9

8

5

10

10

1

1

1

0

0

2

0

1

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

2

1

1

1

1

0

1

2

0 25 50 75 100

Total (w/ DK)

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Republican

Independent

Democrat

DK Definitely Probably Probably not Definitely not

Page 52: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

The Horserace: Who Would You Vote For If Elections

Held Today?

25

23

24

23

29

18

25

37

6

26

71

59

59

62

62

55

71

56

46

87

49

15

4

2

4

4

6

2

5

8

1

10

6

10

12

9

11

8

8

14

8

5

14

8

1

4

1

0

2

2

1

2

1

0

0

0 25 50 75 100

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Biden Trump Neither Undecided No answer

Page 53: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Financial and Health Impact of

Covid-19 Crisis

Page 54: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Health Affected by Covid Crisis

6

5

3

5

9

5

5

7

6

5

7

6

4

2

2

4

6

3

4

6

4

2

3

4

16

12

12

15

20

13

15

21

15

12

25

13

19

21

17

18

21

19

17

23

16

18

22

21

56

60

66

57

44

60

58

44

60

63

43

56

0 25 50 75 100

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

Very badly affected Badly affected Somewhat affected Slightly affected Not at all affected

Page 55: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

Financial Situation Affected by Covid Crisis

8

3

8

10

9

6

10

9

5

7

11

16

10

6

7

13

10

6

14

8

8

9

10

14

25

23

17

28

28

19

28

29

24

27

27

29

22

16

23

21

24

22

19

26

19

21

24

21

35

52

45

29

29

47

29

28

44

36

28

20

0 25 50 75 100

Total

76+

60-75

40-59

18-39

Mig. before 1995

Mig. since 1995

Not Cuba-born

Reg. Rep. (or will)

Reg. Indpt. (or will)

Reg. Dem. (or will)

Non-citizen

Very badly affected Badly affected Somewhat affected Slightly affected Not at all affected

Page 56: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

General Takeaways from the 2020 FIU Cuba Poll

The community is divided on how to deal with Cuba.

There is an increase of support for the isolationist policies reinitiated by the

Trump administration and for the continuation of the economic embargo.

Majority support remains for the continuation or resumption of some

engagement policies (example: airline service throughout the island, selling

of food and medicine, maintaining diplomatic relations.)

Trump is on track to receive approximately 60% of the Cuban American vote

in November and his approval rating is high his handling of key national

issues.

The Republican party is receiving an infusion of new energy from the most

recently arrived Cuba-Americans.

Page 57: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba · • Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,002 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County

2020 FIU Cuba Poll

View online at sipa.fiu.edu

Thank you!