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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
How Consumers Make Decision: Annuities,
Insurance & Cognitive Biases
Dr. Jack Marrion
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
How We Think Decisions Are Made Rational
Brain
Decision To Buy
Logically Presented
Facts
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
How Decisions Really Happen
Rational Brain
Biases
Emotions
Logically Presented
Facts Decision To Buy
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
The Real Size of The Life Insurance Market 8 out of 20 consumers
own individual life insurance policies.
6 said they didn’t need it; they didn’t have people dependent on
them and estates taxes weren’t an issue.
Show how insurance can create a bigger legacy creates a new
need. Show a cash value policy can provide future income
3 would buy if they found a way to afford it.
Help them find the money. Move existing assets. Use a higher
yield annuity creates new money.
3 say they don’t own insurance because no one ever asked them to
buy.
Ask them to buy
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Narrow Framing At the grocer tomorrow you wouldn’t pay $40 for a
12 oz can of coffee
If the convenience store started charging $80 for a 12 pack of
Budweiser you might change to Merlot.
If you sold lottery tickets for $1000 where the player’s family
was guaranteed to win $100,000 if they kept playing you’d have
people lining up at your door for a chance to play.
But at Starbucks you’ll pay $5 for a 12 oz Cafe Latte which
works out to an even higher overall cost
But you’ll pay $7 for a beer at the ballpark
But the same person won’t pay $1000 annual premium to buy a cash
value life insurance policy with a death benefit of $100,000
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Narrow Framing – Choose One Answer In Each Would you prefer
Lose $750
25% chance to win $1000 and
75% to get nothing A) or B)
And would you prefer
Win $250
75% chance to lose $1000 and
25% to lose nothing C) or D)
Most people pick A & D
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Narrow Framing – Choose One Answer In Each Would you prefer
(assumes $250 life insurance premium)
Lose $250
1% chance to win $10,000 and 99%
you win $0 A) or B)
And would you prefer
Win $250
1% chance you lose $10,000 and 99% you win $250
C) or D)
Life insurance
forces people to pick B & C
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Narrow Framing – Change the loss/reward frame
Lose 50 Cafe Lattes
1% chance to win $10,000 and 99%
you win $0
A) or B)
And would you prefer
Win 50 Cafe Lattes
1% chance you lose $10,000 and 99% you win 50
Café Lattes C) or D)
Life insurance provides a
better reward so pick B & C
Would you prefer (assumes $250 life insurance premium)
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Narrow Framing – Change the frame: Annuity/Life $50,000 CD @
1.5% = $750 $50,000 Annuity @ 2.5% = $1250 - $250 LI = $1000
Net
Make $250 more (Annuity)
1% chance to win $10,000 and 100%
you win $250 A) or B)
And would you prefer
Make $250 less
(CD)
Lose a 1% chance to win $10,000 and
make $250 less C) or D)
By combining an annuity
sale with a life insurance sale people pick B
& C
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Narrow Framing – House Money $200,000 CD @ 1.5%
= $3000 Interest
“I would buy life insurance if I could
afford it”
$200,000 Annuity @ 2.5% = $5000 Interest = $2000 in House
Money
Life Insurance Anyone?
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Narrow Framing – Fear Of Underwriting A LIMRA survey found a
quarter of non-buyers said the buying process was too difficult.
Younger Buyers accustomed to internet buying find the process
tedious Older buyers may be forced to confront health issues that
they’d rather deny and privacy is violated.
Reframe Underwriting As A Discount From Full Price First, admit
it is a hassle. Then frame this extra hassle as really being a
discount from full price. It would be presented as “Yes, I can
offer you life insurance that doesn’t require a physical exam or
phone interview and it costs $800 a year. However, if you agree to
do the interview/ physical I might be able to get you a 25%
discount off that regular price.” B i ll ’ ti th d iti h l th t f
th
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Hugo
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
“Good news, I can get you life insurance and you’ll pay the
standard premium.” Said the Agent
The suddenly non-anxious prospect responded, “That’s good to
know, I’ll get back to you if I decide to do
anything.”
What went wrong?
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Initial Frame My family is in danger, but
This won’t happen No one will sell me insurance
Reframing The solution was quick (so it must have been easy)
“I can get you life insurance” “you’ll pay the standard
premium.”
End Frame I can buy insurance at anytime
I’m not sure I need to buy it Everyone will sell me
insurance
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Initial Frame My family is in imminent danger
This won’t happen No one will sell me insurance
Reframing It took 3 days and a lot of work
Company Z may take you if we apply now “If they accept you be
happy you get to pay a premium.”
End Frame My family is protected
I was lucky to get insurance My agent is a miracle worker
“I’m not very optimistic about
your chances, but what would you do if I found a carrier willing
to sell you life insurance?”
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Reframing
When you have a prospect that thinks something is impossible
determine whether they would act if it could
happen – would you really buy if I could get you life
insurance?
When you offer the impossible show how difficult it was to find
it – When you sit down again across the prospect
you begin by naming the insurers that said no or had higher
rates.
It’s helps if there is real urgency, but it’s not essential
–
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Objection Preemption – The Process 1. Anticipate the objections
(not why they should buy but why they don’t buy) 2. Come up with
answers that make sense to the consumer 3. Frame the objections and
answer before the consumer asks
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Objection Preemption – The Process 1. Anticipate the objections
(not why they should buy but why they don’t buy) - Life Insurance
Objections: Too expensive, Don’t need it 2. Come up with answers
that make sense to the consumer - Why would someone need life
insurance? To create a lump sum of money.
Why would you need the money? Replace a pension ended by a
death, pay estate taxes, replace assets/asset growth or income that
goes away upon a death.
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Objection Preemption – The Process
You need to replace $10,000 income upon the death How? 1. Become
Wal-Mart greeter 2. Eat a lot less 3. Use, say, $120,000 to buy an
income annuity How to get an extra $120,000? 1. Take $15,000 to
Vegas and bet it all on red
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Objection Preemption – The Process How to find $2,000 a year?
Move $200,000 from 1.5% bank CD to 2.5% fixed annuity. And if you
can’t find all the money needed for the 1st solution find another
solution If you could move $32,000 into an life-only immediate
annuity this might pay the $2000 life
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Objection Preemption – The Result “Do you have any income that
stops if (spouse) dies? How would you offset the loss (loss
aversion) of that income? Many people use life insurance to replace
an income that goes away upon a death. Life insurance isn’t cheap
but most folks prefer owning it to having their (spouse) spend
retirement saying “thank you for shopping at Wal-Mart.” “Before we
figure out what this might cost why don’t we see if you have any
other assets that aren’t pulling their financial weight (fairness),
because an adjustment (part of their current journey) may be all
you need to protect that income
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Rational Reasons - Fixed Annuities
Higher Potential Yields
No Market-Risk of Loss
Tax-Deferred Interest
Lifetime Income Options
Minimum Guaranteed Return
PresenterPresentation NotesIndex annuities have the same
advantages and disadvantages of other fixed annuities.
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
The Rational Marketing Message If I could potentially double
your interest income without subjecting your money to stock market
risk of loss would you be interested? If I could reduce or
eliminate owing taxes on your Social Security benefits without
increasing your risk would you be interested? If I could give you a
stable income you can’t outlive AND you keep control of your money
would you be interested? If I could show you a place that has been
competitive with bond interest without the risk of market loss
would you be interested?
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Who Shouldn’t Buy A Fixed Annuity?
Too Short A Time Frame
Going For Maximum Returns
Portfolio Tinkerers
Must Be FDIC Insured
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Have you ever heard… “I have plenty of time to decide about
retirement income” (Psychological Distance) “My stock portfolio is
up 40% and the market was up again today” (Projection Bias) “My
stock portfolio is up 40%, I’m know what I’m doing”
(Overconfidence) “I’m going to sleep on it” (often Heuristics/Rules
of Thumb) Or the agent’s first comment: “The stock market was up
20%, I’d like to tell you about thus fixed index annuity with a 5%
interest limit” (Bad Framing)
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Main Causes of Decision-Making Biases
Time (Psychological Distance)
Projection Bias
Information Overload
Rules of Thumb
Overconfidence
PresenterPresentation NotesIndex annuities have the same
advantages and disadvantages of other fixed annuities.
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Time: Closing The Psychological Distance
“So Charlie, how are you going to pay the bills in
retirement?”
“Have you created budget of your expenses in retirement?”
If your investment one year from now was worth 25% less than it
now is, would you be happy or sad that you didn’t buy
the fixed annuity today?
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Time: Closing The Psychological Distance It’s not “Mutual funds
have market risk and that investment could go down in value.” It’s
“How would you feel about not buying the annuity today if that
fund is worth $50,000 less a year from now?”
It’s Not “You can earn 3% interest in this fixed annuity
guaranteed for 5 years”
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Projection Bias 3 Month Rolling Average Mar 1999 to July
2003
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
Mar-99 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01
Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03
Inflow data source: http://www.ici.org
Inde
x Valu
es
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Equi
ty Mu
tual
Fund
Inflo
ws
S&P 500 Equity Fund Inflows
Fig 2.3
Figure 2.3
Net Flows to Mutual Funds
(billions of dollars, 1993–2007)
1993228
199484
1995212
1996321
1997375
1998477
1999363
2000388
2001504
200274
2003-43
200453
2005255
2006474
2007883
inflow97
Investment Company Institute
(Dollar Figures in Millions)
TotalDomesticForeignTotalTaxableMunicipal
DateEquityEquityEquityHybridBondBondBondTotal
Monthly Net New Cash Flow
1/31/0729,3097,77721,5323,57515,10212,2812,82047,986
2/28/0726,94810,54616,4023,57515,04611,9183,12945,570
3/31/077,9988927,1062,78214,96312,1152,84825,742
4/30/0718,1051,53216,5732,46213,59212,2481,34334,159
5/31/07-1,123-12,55711,4342,06621,31817,7383,58022,261
6/30/074,234-3,8868,1201,3687,5207,02050013,122
7/31/0711,103-3,72114,8242,0224,0003,81518517,125
8/31/07-15,620-17,4111,791426-4,033-2,845-1,188-19,228
9/30/077,629-3,98111,6101,3107,4165,9191,49716,356
10/31/0710,878-4,15115,0282,29211,42410,71171324,593
11/30/07-10,038-14,5674,5291,0022,0503,168-1,119-6,986
12/31/071,253-8,1159,3681,2826634,097-3,4343,198
1/31/08-44,555-34,747-9,809-97522,98020,4672,513-22,550
2/29/089,1583,6165,5433,78613,75312,5401,21426,698
3/31/08-9,978-8,611-1,3677958,6266,0712,555-557
4/30/0812,0526,0206,0333,02316,55513,0873,46731,630
5/31/0814,7506,4138,3373,56617,03712,0255,01235,354
6/30/08-4,329-3,246-1,0839074,4701,8512,6191,048
7/31/08-27,264-19,508-7,756-4941,696-7872,483-26,063
8/31/08-19,695-2,267-17,4281137,7115,2932,418-11,872
9/30/08-51,116-29,802-21,314-6,692-1,771-1,147-624-59,578
10/31/08-72,384-47,384-25,001-14,594-41,214-32,856-8,358-128,192
11/30/08-20,649-11,906-8,743-5,872-14,846-13,675-1,171-41,367
12/31/08-20,315-10,170-10,145-1,956-7,308-3,000-4,308-29,578
1/31/099,2166,9432,273-37916,54212,6813,86125,378
2/28/09-25,084-14,433-10,650-4,14816,84512,4964,349-12,386
3/31/09-25,531-17,315-8,216-3,98320,04516,5683,477-9,469
4/30/0911,9699,3532,6162,14328,47123,3735,09842,583
5/31/0918,29213,8684,4242,85931,82525,2916,53452,976
6/30/0912,2395,5916,6481,95428,88223,5095,37343,076
7/31/099,4392,3167,1231,99735,14628,3526,79446,582
8/31/094,045-1,9756,0203,16143,06034,0209,04150,266
9/30/09-10,137-11,2781,14110,79747,70737,57110,13648,367
10/31/09-6,923-14,8467,9222,95744,96440,2034,76140,998
11/30/09-2,668-8,7646,0962,99736,33531,3604,97536,664
12/31/09-3,612-8,9385,3262,36126,20521,5184,68724,954
1/31/1011,5771,6419,9363,47427,61123,0554,55642,661
2/28/10-209-5,3855,1772,29127,31722,2605,05629,399
3/31/1010,1242,0328,0924,56037,74833,7254,02352,432
4/30/1010,3342,4297,9054,12727,72626,80692042,187
5/31/10-25,111-19,806-5,305-1,46513,75911,1242,635-12,818
6/30/10-5,034-7,4992,4661,02218,88016,9711,90914,869
7/31/10-12,283-12,289619229,47125,6613,81017,380
8/31/10-16,907-16,524-383-84530,48425,3785,10512,731
9/30/10-11,167-14,6303,4621,79525,85923,5682,29116,487
10/31/10-81-7,1477,0672,98523,82821,8881,94126,732
11/30/10362-6,5076,8703,402-9796,723-7,7022,785
12/31/101,608-12,20613,8141,777-20,406-7,049-13,357-17,021
1/31/1119,74511,4518,2946,655-1,75610,642-12,39824,643
2/28/1113,0529,2613,7916,0617,80712,130-4,32326,920
3/31/112,097-5,0147,1114,75611,61414,269-2,65418,467
4/30/116,7762,8303,9464,14213,15016,874-3,72424,068
5/31/11-5,030-7,1142,0843,04419,55919,589-3017,574
6/30/11-22,957-20,821-2,1361,21112,92612,051875-8,820
Estimated Weekly Net New Cash Flow
7/6/11-3,843-4,4736305706,3536,1152373,080
7/13/11-3,444-4,0926485925,2864,8234622,433
7/20/11-6,840-6,529-311-1052,3642,138226-4,581
7/27/11-10,094-8,758-1,336-73-214-67-147-10,381
Weekly cash flows are estimates that are adjusted to represent
industry totals, based on
reporting covering 95 percent of industry assets, while monthly
flows are actual numbers
as reported in ICI's "Trends in Mutual Fund Investing."
newCash
Data Section 3: U.S. Long-Term Mutual Funds
Table 17
Net New Cash Flow1 and Components of Net New Cash Flow of Equity
Mutual Funds
(millions of dollars, annual)
Net New Cash FlowSalesRedemptions
YearNew + ExchangeNew2Exchange3Regular +
ExchangeRegular4Exchange5
1984$4,336$28,705$16,586$12,119$24,369$10,669$13,700
19856,64340,60825,04615,56233,96517,55816,406
198620,38687,99750,77437,22467,61226,05141,561
198719,231139,59665,09374,502120,36538,60181,764
1988-14,94868,82725,64143,18683,77433,24750,528
19896,77489,34546,81742,52782,57137,22945,342
199012,915104,33462,87241,46291,41944,48746,931
199139,888146,61890,19256,427106,73053,39453,336
199278,983201,720134,30967,411122,73861,46561,272
1993127,260307,356213,63993,717180,09591,94488,151
1994114,525366,659252,887113,772252,134141,097111,037
1995124,392433,853282,937150,915309,461170,402139,059
1996216,937674,323442,372231,951457,385240,531216,854
1997227,106880,286579,064301,222653,180362,022291,158
1998156,8751,065,197699,554365,643908,322534,256374,065
1999187,5651,410,845918,600492,2451,223,280744,144479,136
2000309,3671,975,8821,321,838654,0441,666,5151,038,572627,943
200131,9661,330,685953,197377,4881,298,720892,879405,841
2002-27,5501,220,185898,417321,7681,247,734878,823368,911
2003152,3161,086,351847,602238,749934,035710,535223,500
2004177,8411,106,604935,116171,488928,762762,199166,563
2005135,6331,210,0051,031,828178,1771,074,372882,510191,862
2006159,4411,437,2981,231,622205,6761,277,8571,054,207223,650
200792,6321,760,3851,533,572226,8141,667,7541,398,470269,284
1Net new cash flow is the dollar value of new sales minus
redemptions, combined with net exchanges.
2New sales are the dollar value of new purchases of mutual fund
shares. This does not include shares purchased through reinvestment
of dividends in existing accounts.
3Exchange sales are the dollar value of mutual fund shares
switched into funds within the same fund group.
4Redemptions are the dollar value of shareholder liquidation of
mutual fund shares.
5Exchange redemptions are the dollar value of mutual fund shares
switched out of funds and into another fund in the same group.
Note: Data for funds that invest primarily in other mutual funds
were excluded from the series.
Components may not add to the total because of rounding.
roll
3622010.1459333333
3625113.0508
3628117.8009666667
3631219.9684
3634215.4893333333
3637313.4715666667
3640410.7005
3643413.5799
3646516.9496
3649521.6789333333
3652628.3038
3655739.8584666667
3658644.6626
3661742.3663666667
3664730.1513666667
3667824.4012333333
3670818.8405333333
3673921.1645666667
3677019.5622333333
3680020.1689666667
3683114.0072
3686112.109
3689214.076
3692311.1353333333
369510.398
36982-1.5526666667
370125.589
3704316.0513333333
370739.237
371041.5893333333
37135-11.8
37165-11.082
37196-4.3776666667
372266.3803333333
3725812.7553333333
372899.4576666667
3731718.3596666667
3734815.9856666667
3737815.8093333333
37409-0.1593333333
37439-22.004
37470-24.65
37501-23.922
37531-8.8926666667
37562-5.554
37592-2.956
37624-0.573
37655-6.5886666667
37683-3.9136666667
377141.5786666667
377449.2526666667
3777515.5633333333
&A
Page &P
S&P 500
Equity Fund Inflows
Inflow data source: http://www.ici.org
Index Values
Equity Mutual Fund Inflows
3 Month Rolling Average Mar 1999 to July 2003
1268.11
1286.63
1307.8
1336.58
1334.42
1340.61
1310.61
1322.02
1344.85
1407.03
1417.54
1410.04
1419.82
1439.14
1457.2
1442.54
1435.34
1467.7
1461.67
1461.2
1393.62
1354.88
1333.75
1308.74
1255.43
1216.58
1221.87
1243.22
1230.48
1188.21
1127.07
1076.58
1080.06
1115.77
1139.24
1128.34
1128.11
1110.35
1097.15
1044.63
989.53
939.17
880.99
872.37
879.12
900.3
890.28
858.56
848.34
868.75
909.56
974.5
bdiprirates
1.10376.89
0.11276666677.14
-0.17803333337.39
-0.60447.54
-0.77013333337.62
-0.83116666677.57
-0.19763333337.55
-0.09396666677.46
0.42867.32
0.61836666677.16
1.53357.17
1.56346666677.24
-0.08156666677.35
-0.57953333337.45
-0.52587.54
0.77413333337.49
1.56173333337.28
3.09157.15
3.67143333337.06
3.64833333337
4.58726.87
5.09893333336.74
6.63226666676.6
5.65916666676.52
6.14666.5
4.95676666676.54
5.15536.55
4.46666.5
5.19726.44
4.20716.37
4.58763333336.27
4.23323333336.15
5.31656.11
4.49303333336.08
5.01626.1
3.95053333336.13
4.78493333336.27
3.35366.39
1.70943333336.54
0.72076666676.74
0.52033333336.92
1.20327.06
-0.01523333337.1
-1.16117.23
-1.78043333337.23
-3.20886666677.29
-5.38067.37
-6.74236666677.48
-6.41136666677.51
-4.16426666677.43
-3.51506666677.52
-1.20386666677.51
-1.15886666677.51
-0.41553333337.33
-1.52547.27
-1.84713333337.23
-1.62816666677.21
-1.39233333337.06
1.976.91
4.49866666676.75
7.09666666676.67
5.44266666676.69
4.83733333336.76
3.0836.84
4.56966666676.84
7.43933333336.73
9.58066666676.68
11.1146.59
8.53566666676.54
5.5466.53
4.67833333336.53
5.4766.51
8.07266666676.55
7.40333333336.61
7.6296.68
8.82766666676.6
14.60633333336.5
16.1276.3
17.02833333336.07
11.5765.95
9.64033333335.93
7.47333333335.96
9.08133333335.91
12.44866666675.79
13.78533333335.68
13.14333333335.56
9.72833333335.37
&A
Page &P
Bond Fund Inflows
Composite Bond Interest Rate
Bond Fd Infows
Bond Yields
3 Month Rolling Average Jan 1996 to June 2003
bothinflows
23.52856666671.1037
22.66570.1127666667
23.7433333333-0.1780333333
21.5553333333-0.6044
14.8325333333-0.7701333333
12.3805333333-0.8311666667
13.4285-0.1976333333
16.0922-0.0939666667
15.76746666670.4286
13.77890.6183666667
18.82906666671.5335
19.10236666671.5634666667
18.6613333333-0.0815666667
14.4093333333-0.5795333333
15.3450666667-0.5258
17.46530.7741333333
21.04686666671.5617333333
18.84506666673.0915
21.82393.6714333333
19.57513.6483333333
21.04986666674.5872
17.81083333335.0989333333
16.12056.6322666667
18.13795.6591666667
20.60116.1466
24.53873333334.9567666667
22.92163333335.1553
21.67763333334.4666
19.35335.1972
9.00553333334.2071
4.70763333334.5876333333
-0.97953333334.2332333333
7.17766666675.3165
6.13756666674.4930333333
11.02333333335.0162
7.01033.9505333333
10.14593333334.7849333333
13.05083.3536
17.80096666671.7094333333
19.96840.7207666667
15.48933333330.5203333333
13.47156666671.2032
10.7005-0.0152333333
13.5799-1.1611
16.9496-1.7804333333
21.6789333333-3.2088666667
28.3038-5.3806
39.8584666667-6.7423666667
44.6626-6.4113666667
42.3663666667-4.1642666667
30.1513666667-3.5150666667
24.4012333333-1.2038666667
18.8405333333-1.1588666667
21.1645666667-0.4155333333
19.5622333333-1.5254
20.1689666667-1.8471333333
14.0072-1.6281666667
12.109-1.3923333333
14.0761.97
11.13533333334.4986666667
0.3987.0966666667
-1.55266666675.4426666667
5.5894.8373333333
16.05133333333.083
9.2374.5696666667
1.58933333337.4393333333
-11.89.5806666667
-11.08211.114
-4.37766666678.5356666667
6.38033333335.546
12.75533333334.6783333333
9.45766666675.476
18.35966666678.0726666667
15.98566666677.4033333333
15.80933333337.629
-0.15933333338.8276666667
-22.00414.6063333333
-24.6516.127
-23.92217.0283333333
-8.892666666711.576
-5.5549.6403333333
-2.9567.4733333333
-0.5739.0813333333
-6.588666666712.4486666667
-3.913666666713.7853333333
1.578666666713.1433333333
9.25266666679.7283333333
&A
Page &P
Equity Mutual Fund Inflows
Taxable Bond Mutual Fund Inflows
Equity Mutual Fd Inflows
Taxable Bond Mutual Fd Inflows
3 Month Rolling Average Jan 1996 to June 2003
Sheet1
ICI Mutual Fund Net Monthly Inflows (outflows) in billions
StockTaxable Bd Fund
January-9628.1322.246Jan-96equitytaxable bd
February-9621.7730.419Feb-96s&prolling 3 month averagesbd
inflowIPR! 3 month aver inrt rate
March-9620.6810.646Mar-96640.6523.5291.104640.651.1046.89
April-9625.543-0.726Apr-96646.722.6660.113646.70.1137.14
May-9625.006-0.454May-96656.2623.743-0.2656.26-0.1787.39
June-9614.117-0.633Jun-96664.6421.555-0.6664.64-0.6047.54
July-965.375-1.224Jul-96659.914.833-0.8659.9-0.7707.62
August-9617.650-0.637Aug-96654.1912.381-0.8654.19-0.8317.57
September-9617.2611.268Sep-96659.7613.429-0.2659.76-0.1987.55
October-9613.366-0.913Oct-96681.5316.092-0.1681.53-0.0947.46
November-9616.6760.931Nov-96716.5415.7670.4716.540.4297.32
December-9611.2951.837Dec-96734.3413.7790.6734.340.6187.16
January-9728.5161.833Jan-97761.3118.8291.5761.311.5347.17
February-9717.4961.021Feb-97772.5719.1021.6772.571.5637.24
March-979.972-3.098Mar-97778.0318.661-0.1778.03-0.0827.35
April-9715.7600.339Apr-97783.0914.409-0.6783.09-0.5807.45
May-9720.3031.182May-97802.2515.345-0.5802.25-0.5267.54
June-9716.3330.802Jun-97844.9217.4650.8844.920.7747.49
July-9726.5052.702Jul-97895.9121.0471.6895.911.5627.28
August-9713.6985.771Aug-97912.9718.8453.1912.973.0927.15
September-9725.2692.541Sep-97933.6921.8243.7933.693.6717.06
October-9719.7592.632Oct-97920.4619.5753.6920.463.6487
November-9718.1228.588Nov-97939.121.0504.6939.14.5876.87
December-9715.5524.077Dec-97946.8217.8115.1946.825.0996.74
January-9814.6887.232Jan-98968.716.1216.6968.76.6326.6
February-9824.1745.669Feb-981000.0218.1385.71000.025.6596.52
March-9822.9425.539Mar-981043.7920.6016.11043.796.1476.5
April-9826.5013.663Apr-981087.6124.5395.01087.614.9576.54
May-9819.3236.264May-981101.4422.9225.21101.445.1556.55
June-9819.2103.473Jun-981112.1421.6784.51112.144.4676.5
July-9819.5285.855Jul-981115.1119.3535.21115.115.1976.44
August-98-11.7213.294Aug-981070.69.0064.21070.64.2076.37
September-986.3164.614Sep-981031.654.7084.61031.654.5886.27
October-982.4664.792Oct-981024.32-0.9804.21024.324.2336.15
November-9812.7516.544Nov-981093.17.1785.31093.15.3176.11
December-983.1962.144Dec-981163.846.1384.51163.844.4936.08
January-9917.1236.361Jan-991224.1711.0235.01224.175.0166.1
February-990.7123.347Feb-991249.077.0104.01249.073.9516.13
March-9912.6034.647Mar-991268.1110.1464.81268.114.7856.27
April-9925.8382.067Apr-991286.6313.0513.41286.633.3546.39
May-9914.962-1.586May-991307.817.8011.71307.81.7096.54
June-9919.1051.681Jun-991336.5819.9680.71336.580.7216.74
July-9912.4011.466Jul-991334.4215.4890.51334.420.5206.92
August-998.9090.463Aug-991340.6113.4721.21340.611.2037.06
September-9910.792-1.974Sep-991310.6110.701-0.01310.61-0.0157.1
October-9921.039-1.972Oct-991322.0213.580-1.21322.02-1.1617.23
November-9919.018-1.395Nov-991344.8516.950-1.81344.85-1.7807.23
December-9924.980-6.260Dec-991407.0321.679-3.21407.03-3.2097.29
January-0040.914-8.487Jan-001417.5428.304-5.41417.54-5.3817.37
February-0053.682-5.481Feb-001410.0439.858-6.71410.04-6.7427.48
March-0039.392-5.267Mar-001419.8244.663-6.41419.82-6.4117.51
April-0034.025-1.746Apr-001439.1442.366-4.21439.14-4.1647.43
May-0017.037-3.533May-001457.230.151-3.51457.2-3.5157.52
June-0022.1421.667Jun-001442.5424.401-1.21442.54-1.2047.51
July-0017.343-1.611Jul-001435.3418.841-1.21435.34-1.1597.51
August-0024.009-1.303Aug-001467.721.165-0.41467.7-0.4167.33
September-0017.335-1.663Sep-001461.6719.562-1.51461.67-1.5257.27
October-0019.163-2.576Oct-001461.220.169-1.81461.2-1.8477.23
November-005.524-0.646Nov-001393.6214.007-1.61393.62-1.6287.21
December-0011.640-0.955Dec-001354.8812.109-1.41354.88-1.3927.06
January-0125.0647.511Jan-011333.7514.0762.01333.751.9706.91
February-01-3.2986.940Feb-011308.7411.1354.51308.744.4996.75
March-01-20.5726.839Mar-011255.430.3987.11255.437.0976.67
April-0119.2122.549Apr-011216.58-1.5535.41216.585.4436.69
May-0118.1275.124May-011221.875.5894.81221.874.8376.76
June-0110.8151.576Jun-011243.2216.0513.11243.223.0836.84
July-01-1.2317.009Jul-011230.489.2374.61230.484.5706.84
August-01-4.81613.733Aug-011188.211.5897.41188.217.4396.73
September-01-29.3538.000Sep-011127.07-11.8009.61127.079.5816.68
October-010.92311.609Oct-011076.58-11.08211.11076.5811.1146.59
November-0115.2975.998Nov-011080.06-4.3788.51080.068.5366.54
December-012.921-0.969Dec-011115.776.3805.51115.775.5466.53
January-0220.0489.006Jan-021139.2412.7554.71139.244.6786.53
February-025.4048.391Feb-021128.349.4585.51128.345.4766.51
March-0229.6276.821Mar-021128.1118.3608.11128.118.0736.55
April-0212.9266.998Apr-021110.3515.9867.41110.357.4036.61
May-024.8759.068May-021097.1515.8097.61097.157.6296.68
June-02-18.27910.417Jun-021044.63-0.1598.81044.638.8286.6
July-02-52.60824.334Jul-02989.53-22.00414.6989.5314.6066.52nd
highest bond inflow
August-02-3.06313.630Aug-02939.17-24.65016.1939.1716.1276.3
September-02-16.09513.121Sep-02880.99-23.92217.0880.9917.0286.07
October-02-7.5207.977Oct-02872.37-8.89311.6872.3711.5765.95
November-026.9537.823Nov-02879.12-5.5549.6879.129.6405.93
December-02-8.3016.620Dec-02900.3-2.9567.5900.37.4735.96
January-03-0.37112.801Jan-03890.28-0.5739.1890.289.0815.91
February-03-11.09417.925Feb-03858.56-6.58912.4858.5612.4495.79
March-03-0.27610.630Mar-03848.34-3.91413.8848.3413.7855.68
April-0316.10610.875Apr-03868.751.57913.1868.7513.1435.56
May-0311.9287.680May-03909.569.2539.7909.569.7285.37
June-0318.6565.261Jun-03974.515.5637.9951.677.9395.2
July-03
August-03
September-03
October-03
November-03
December-03
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Projection Bias 3 Month Rolling Average Mar 2007 to July
2011
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1000.00
1100.00
1200.00
1300.00
1400.00
1500.00
1600.00
Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09
Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11
Inflow Data Source: http://w w w .ici.org
Inde
x Va
lues
-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Equi
ty M
utua
l Fun
d In
flows
S&P 500 Equity Fund Inflows
Fig 2.3
Figure 2.3
Net Flows to Mutual Funds
(billions of dollars, 1993–2007)
1993228
199484
1995212
1996321
1997375
1998477
1999363
2000388
2001504
200274
2003-43
200453
2005255
2006474
2007883
inflow97
Investment Company Institute
(Dollar Figures in Millions)
TotalDomesticForeignTotalTaxableMunicipal
DateEquityEquityEquityHybridBondBondBondTotal
Monthly Net New Cash Flow
Jan-0729,3097,77721,5323,57515,10212,2812,82047,986
Feb-0726,94810,54616,4023,57515,04611,9183,12945,570
Mar-077,9988927,1062,78214,96312,1152,84825,74221,41821.418
Apr-0718,1051,53216,5732,46213,59212,2481,34334,15917,68417.684
May-07-1,123-12,55711,4342,06621,31817,7383,58022,2618,3278.327
Jun-074,234-3,8868,1201,3687,5207,02050013,1227,0727.072
Jul-0711,103-3,72114,8242,0224,0003,81518517,1254,7384.738
Aug-07-15,620-17,4111,791426-4,033-2,845-1,188-19,228-94-0.094
Sep-077,629-3,98111,6101,3107,4165,9191,49716,3561,0371.037
Oct-0710,878-4,15115,0282,29211,42410,71171324,5939620.962
Nov-07-10,038-14,5674,5291,0022,0503,168-1,119-6,9862,8232.823
Dec-071,253-8,1159,3681,2826634,097-3,4343,1986980.698
Jan-08-44,555-34,747-9,809-97522,98020,4672,513-22,550-17,780-17.780
Feb-089,1583,6165,5433,78613,75312,5401,21426,698-11,381-11.381
Mar-08-9,978-8,611-1,3677958,6266,0712,555-557-15,125-15.125
Apr-0812,0526,0206,0333,02316,55513,0873,46731,6303,7443.744
May-0814,7506,4138,3373,56617,03712,0255,01235,3545,6085.608
Jun-08-4,329-3,246-1,0839074,4701,8512,6191,0487,4917.491
Jul-08-27,264-19,508-7,756-4941,696-7872,483-26,063-5,614-5.614
Aug-08-19,695-2,267-17,4281137,7115,2932,418-11,872-17,096-17.096
Sep-08-51,116-29,802-21,314-6,692-1,771-1,147-624-59,578-32,692-32.692
Oct-08-72,384-47,384-25,001-14,594-41,214-32,856-8,358-128,192-47,732-47.732
Nov-08-20,649-11,906-8,743-5,872-14,846-13,675-1,171-41,367-48,050-48.050
Dec-08-20,315-10,170-10,145-1,956-7,308-3,000-4,308-29,578-37,783-37.783
Jan-099,2166,9432,273-37916,54212,6813,86125,378-10,583-10.583
Feb-09-25,084-14,433-10,650-4,14816,84512,4964,349-12,386-12,061-12.061
Mar-09-25,531-17,315-8,216-3,98320,04516,5683,477-9,469-13,800-13.800
Apr-0911,9699,3532,6162,14328,47123,3735,09842,583-12,882-12.882
May-0918,29213,8684,4242,85931,82525,2916,53452,9761,5771.577
Jun-0912,2395,5916,6481,95428,88223,5095,37343,07614,16714.167
Jul-099,4392,3167,1231,99735,14628,3526,79446,58213,32313.323
Aug-094,045-1,9756,0203,16143,06034,0209,04150,2668,5748.574
Sep-09-10,137-11,2781,14110,79747,70737,57110,13648,3671,1161.116
Oct-09-6,923-14,8467,9222,95744,96440,2034,76140,998-4,338-4.338
Nov-09-2,668-8,7646,0962,99736,33531,3604,97536,664-6,576-6.576
Dec-09-3,612-8,9385,3262,36126,20521,5184,68724,954-4,401-4.401
Jan-1011,5771,6419,9363,47427,61123,0554,55642,6611,7661.766
Feb-10-209-5,3855,1772,29127,31722,2605,05629,3992,5852.585
Mar-1010,1242,0328,0924,56037,74833,7254,02352,4327,1647.164
Apr-1010,3342,4297,9054,12727,72626,80692042,1876,7506.750
May-10-25,111-19,806-5,305-1,46513,75911,1242,635-12,818-1,551-1.551
Jun-10-5,034-7,4992,4661,02218,88016,9711,90914,869-6,604-6.604
Jul-10-12,283-12,289619229,47125,6613,81017,380-14,143-14.143
Aug-10-16,907-16,524-383-84530,48425,3785,10512,731-11,408-11.408
Sep-10-11,167-14,6303,4621,79525,85923,5682,29116,487-13,452-13.452
Oct-10-81-7,1477,0672,98523,82821,8881,94126,732-9,385-9.385
Nov-10362-6,5076,8703,402-9796,723-7,7022,785-3,629-3.629
Dec-101,608-12,20613,8141,777-20,406-7,049-13,357-17,0216300.630
Jan-1119,74511,4518,2946,655-1,75610,642-12,39824,6437,2387.238
Feb-1113,0529,2613,7916,0617,80712,130-4,32326,92011,46811.468
Mar-112,097-5,0147,1114,75611,61414,269-2,65418,46711,63111.631
Apr-116,7762,8303,9464,14213,15016,874-3,72424,0687,3087.308
May-11-5,030-7,1142,0843,04419,55919,589-3017,5741,2811.281
Jun-11-22,957-20,821-2,1361,21112,92612,051875-8,820-7,070-7.070
27-Jul-10,094-12,694-12.694
Estimated Weekly Net New Cash Flow
7/6/11-3,843-4,4736305706,3536,1152373,080
7/13/11-3,444-4,0926485925,2864,8234622,433
7/20/11-6,840-6,529-311-1052,3642,138226-4,581
7/27/11-10,094-8,758-1,336-73-214-67-147-10,381
Weekly cash flows are estimates that are adjusted to represent
industry totals, based on
reporting covering 95 percent of industry assets, while monthly
flows are actual numbers
as reported in ICI's "Trends in Mutual Fund Investing."
newCash
Data Section 3: U.S. Long-Term Mutual Funds
Table 17
Net New Cash Flow1 and Components of Net New Cash Flow of Equity
Mutual Funds
(millions of dollars, annual)
Net New Cash FlowSalesRedemptions
YearNew + ExchangeNew2Exchange3Regular +
ExchangeRegular4Exchange5
1984$4,336$28,705$16,586$12,119$24,369$10,669$13,700
19856,64340,60825,04615,56233,96517,55816,406
198620,38687,99750,77437,22467,61226,05141,561
198719,231139,59665,09374,502120,36538,60181,764
1988-14,94868,82725,64143,18683,77433,24750,528
19896,77489,34546,81742,52782,57137,22945,342
199012,915104,33462,87241,46291,41944,48746,931
199139,888146,61890,19256,427106,73053,39453,336
199278,983201,720134,30967,411122,73861,46561,272
1993127,260307,356213,63993,717180,09591,94488,151
1994114,525366,659252,887113,772252,134141,097111,037
1995124,392433,853282,937150,915309,461170,402139,059
1996216,937674,323442,372231,951457,385240,531216,854
1997227,106880,286579,064301,222653,180362,022291,158
1998156,8751,065,197699,554365,643908,322534,256374,065
1999187,5651,410,845918,600492,2451,223,280744,144479,136
2000309,3671,975,8821,321,838654,0441,666,5151,038,572627,943
200131,9661,330,685953,197377,4881,298,720892,879405,841
2002-27,5501,220,185898,417321,7681,247,734878,823368,911
2003152,3161,086,351847,602238,749934,035710,535223,500
2004177,8411,106,604935,116171,488928,762762,199166,563
2005135,6331,210,0051,031,828178,1771,074,372882,510191,862
2006159,4411,437,2981,231,622205,6761,277,8571,054,207223,650
200792,6321,760,3851,533,572226,8141,667,7541,398,470269,284
1Net new cash flow is the dollar value of new sales minus
redemptions, combined with net exchanges.
2New sales are the dollar value of new purchases of mutual fund
shares. This does not include shares purchased through reinvestment
of dividends in existing accounts.
3Exchange sales are the dollar value of mutual fund shares
switched into funds within the same fund group.
4Redemptions are the dollar value of shareholder liquidation of
mutual fund shares.
5Exchange redemptions are the dollar value of mutual fund shares
switched out of funds and into another fund in the same group.
Note: Data for funds that invest primarily in other mutual funds
were excluded from the series.
Components may not add to the total because of rounding.
roll
3917221.418
3920217.684
392338.327
392637.072
392944.738
39325-0.094
393551.037
393860.962
394162.823
394470.698
39478-17.78
39507-11.381
39538-15.125
395683.744
395995.608
396297.491
39660-5.614
39691-17.096
39721-32.692
39752-47.732
39782-48.05
39813-37.783
39844-10.583
39872-12.061
39903-13.8
39933-12.882
399641.577
3999414.167
4002513.323
400568.574
400861.116
40117-4.338
40147-6.576
40178-4.401
402091.766
402372.585
402687.164
402986.75
40329-1.551
40359-6.604
40390-14.143
40421-11.408
40451-13.452
40482-9.385
40512-3.629
405430.63
405747.238
4060211.468
4063311.631
406637.308
406941.281
40724-7.07
40754-12.694
&A
Page &P
S&P 500
Equity Fund Inflows
Inflow Data Source: http://www.ici.org
Index Values
Equity Mutual Fund Inflows
3 Month Rolling Average Mar 2007 to July 2011
1420.86
1482.37
1530.62
1503.35
1455.27
1473.99
1526.75
1549.38
1481.14
1468.36
1378.55
1330.63
1322.7
1385.59
1400.38
1280
1267.38
1282.83
1164.74
968.75
896.24
903.25
825.88
735.09
797.87
872.81
919.14
919.32
987.48
1020.62
1057.08
1036.19
1095.63
1115.1
1073.87
1104.29
1169.43
1186.69
1089.41
1030.71
1101.6
1049.33
1141.2
1183.26
1180.55
1257.64
1286.12
1327.22
1325.83
1363.61
1345.2
1320.64
1292.28
bdiprirates
1.10376.89
0.11276666677.14
-0.17803333337.39
-0.60447.54
-0.77013333337.62
-0.83116666677.57
-0.19763333337.55
-0.09396666677.46
0.42867.32
0.61836666677.16
1.53357.17
1.56346666677.24
-0.08156666677.35
-0.57953333337.45
-0.52587.54
0.77413333337.49
1.56173333337.28
3.09157.15
3.67143333337.06
3.64833333337
4.58726.87
5.09893333336.74
6.63226666676.6
5.65916666676.52
6.14666.5
4.95676666676.54
5.15536.55
4.46666.5
5.19726.44
4.20716.37
4.58763333336.27
4.23323333336.15
5.31656.11
4.49303333336.08
5.01626.1
3.95053333336.13
4.78493333336.27
3.35366.39
1.70943333336.54
0.72076666676.74
0.52033333336.92
1.20327.06
-0.01523333337.1
-1.16117.23
-1.78043333337.23
-3.20886666677.29
-5.38067.37
-6.74236666677.48
-6.41136666677.51
-4.16426666677.43
-3.51506666677.52
-1.20386666677.51
-1.15886666677.51
-0.41553333337.33
-1.52547.27
-1.84713333337.23
-1.62816666677.21
-1.39233333337.06
1.976.91
4.49866666676.75
7.09666666676.67
5.44266666676.69
4.83733333336.76
3.0836.84
4.56966666676.84
7.43933333336.73
9.58066666676.68
11.1146.59
8.53566666676.54
5.5466.53
4.67833333336.53
5.4766.51
8.07266666676.55
7.40333333336.61
7.6296.68
8.82766666676.6
14.60633333336.5
16.1276.3
17.02833333336.07
11.5765.95
9.64033333335.93
7.47333333335.96
9.08133333335.91
12.44866666675.79
13.78533333335.68
13.14333333335.56
9.72833333335.37
&A
Page &P
Bond Fund Inflows
Composite Bond Interest Rate
Bond Fd Infows
Bond Yields
3 Month Rolling Average Jan 1996 to June 2003
bothinflows
21.4181.1037
17.6840.1127666667
8.327-0.1780333333
7.072-0.6044
4.738-0.7701333333
-0.094-0.8311666667
1.037-0.1976333333
0.962-0.0939666667
2.8230.4286
0.6980.6183666667
-17.781.5335
-11.3811.5634666667
-15.125-0.0815666667
3.744-0.5795333333
5.608-0.5258
7.4910.7741333333
-5.6141.5617333333
-17.0963.0915
-32.6923.6714333333
-47.7323.6483333333
-48.054.5872
-37.7835.0989333333
-10.5836.6322666667
-12.0615.6591666667
-13.86.1466
-12.8824.9567666667
1.5775.1553
14.1674.4666
13.3235.1972
8.5744.2071
1.1164.5876333333
-4.3384.2332333333
-6.5765.3165
-4.4014.4930333333
1.7665.0162
2.5853.9505333333
7.1644.7849333333
6.753.3536
-1.5511.7094333333
-6.6040.7207666667
-14.1430.5203333333
-11.4081.2032
-13.452-0.0152333333
-9.385-1.1611
-3.629-1.7804333333
0.63-3.2088666667
7.238-5.3806
11.468-6.7423666667
11.631-6.4113666667
7.308-4.1642666667
1.281-3.5150666667
-7.07-1.2038666667
-12.694-1.1588666667
-0.4155333333
14.0072-1.5254
12.109-1.8471333333
14.076-1.6281666667
11.1353333333-1.3923333333
0.3981.97
-1.55266666674.4986666667
5.5897.0966666667
16.05133333335.4426666667
9.2374.8373333333
1.58933333333.083
-11.84.5696666667
-11.0827.4393333333
-4.37766666679.5806666667
6.380333333311.114
12.75533333338.5356666667
9.45766666675.546
18.35966666674.6783333333
15.98566666675.476
15.80933333338.0726666667
-0.15933333337.4033333333
-22.0047.629
-24.658.8276666667
-23.92214.6063333333
-8.892666666716.127
-5.55417.0283333333
-2.95611.576
-0.5739.6403333333
-6.58866666677.4733333333
-3.91366666679.0813333333
1.578666666712.4486666667
9.252666666713.7853333333
13.1433333333
9.7283333333
&A
Page &P
Equity Mutual Fund Inflows
Taxable Bond Mutual Fund Inflows
Equity Mutual Fd Inflows
Taxable Bond Mutual Fd Inflows
3 Month Rolling Average Jan 1996 to June 2003
Sheet1
ICI Mutual Fund Net Monthly Inflows (outflows) in billions
StockTaxable Bd Fund
January-9628.1322.246equitytaxable bd
February-9621.7730.419s&prolling 3 month averagesbd
inflowIPR! 3 month aver inrt rate
March-9620.6810.646Jan-071438.241.104640.651.1046.89
April-9625.543-0.726Feb-071406.820.113646.70.1137.14
May-9625.006-0.454Mar-071420.8621.418-0.178656.26-0.1787.39
June-9614.117-0.633Apr-071482.3717.684-0.604664.64-0.6047.54
July-965.375-1.224May-071530.628.327-0.770659.9-0.7707.62
August-9617.650-0.637Jun-071503.357.072-0.831654.19-0.8317.57
September-9617.2611.268Jul-071455.274.738-0.198659.76-0.1987.55
October-9613.366-0.913Aug-071473.99-0.094-0.094681.53-0.0947.46
November-9616.6760.931Sep-071526.751.0370.429716.540.4297.32
December-9611.2951.837Oct-071549.380.9620.618734.340.6187.16
January-9728.5161.833Nov-071481.142.8231.534761.311.5347.17
February-9717.4961.021Dec-071468.360.6981.563772.571.5637.24
March-979.972-3.098Jan-081378.55-17.780-0.082778.03-0.0827.35
April-9715.7600.339Feb-081330.63-11.381-0.580783.09-0.5807.45
May-9720.3031.182Mar-081322.70-15.125-0.526802.25-0.5267.54
June-9716.3330.802Apr-081385.593.7440.774844.920.7747.49
July-9726.5052.702May-081400.385.6081.562895.911.5627.28
August-9713.6985.771Jun-081280.007.4913.092912.973.0927.15
September-9725.2692.541Jul-081267.38-5.6143.671933.693.6717.06
October-9719.7592.632Aug-081282.83-17.0963.648920.463.6487
November-9718.1228.588Sep-081164.74-32.6924.587939.14.5876.87
December-9715.5524.077Oct-08968.75-47.7325.099946.825.0996.74
January-9814.6887.232Nov-08896.24-48.0506.632968.76.6326.6
February-9824.1745.669Dec-08903.25-37.7835.6591000.025.6596.52
March-9822.9425.539Jan-09825.88-10.5836.1471043.796.1476.5
April-9826.5013.663Feb-09735.09-12.0614.9571087.614.9576.54
May-9819.3236.264Mar-09797.87-13.8005.1551101.445.1556.55
June-9819.2103.473Apr-09872.81-12.8824.4671112.144.4676.5
July-9819.5285.855May-09919.141.5775.1971115.115.1976.44
August-98-11.7213.294Jun-09919.3214.1674.2071070.64.2076.37
September-986.3164.614Jul-09987.4813.3234.5881031.654.5886.27
October-982.4664.792Aug-091020.628.5744.2331024.324.2336.15
November-9812.7516.544Sep-091057.081.1165.3171093.15.3176.11
December-983.1962.144Oct-091036.19-4.3384.4931163.844.4936.08
January-9917.1236.361Nov-091095.63-6.5765.0161224.175.0166.1
February-990.7123.347Dec-091115.1-4.4013.9511249.073.9516.13
March-9912.6034.647Jan-101073.871.7664.7851268.114.7856.27
April-9925.8382.067Feb-101104.292.5853.3541286.633.3546.39
May-9914.962-1.586Mar-101169.437.1641.7091307.81.7096.54
June-9919.1051.681Apr-101186.696.7500.7211336.580.7216.74
July-9912.4011.466May-101089.41-1.5510.5201334.420.5206.92
August-998.9090.463Jun-101030.71-6.6041.2031340.611.2037.06
September-9910.792-1.974Jul-101101.6-14.143-0.0151310.61-0.0157.1
October-9921.039-1.972Aug-101049.33-11.408-1.1611322.02-1.1617.23
November-9919.018-1.395Sep-101141.2-13.452-1.7801344.85-1.7807.23
December-9924.980-6.260Oct-101183.26-9.385-3.2091407.03-3.2097.29
January-0040.914-8.487Nov-101180.55-3.629-5.3811417.54-5.3817.37
February-0053.682-5.481Dec-101257.640.630-6.7421410.04-6.7427.48
March-0039.392-5.267Jan-111286.127.238-6.4111419.82-6.4117.51
April-0034.025-1.746Feb-111327.2211.468-4.1641439.14-4.1647.43
May-0017.037-3.533Mar-111325.8311.631-3.5151457.2-3.5157.52
June-0022.1421.667Apr-111363.617.308-1.2041442.54-1.2047.51
July-0017.343-1.611May-111345.21.281-1.1591435.34-1.1597.51
August-0024.009-1.303Jun-111320.64-7.070-0.4161467.7-0.4167.33
September-0017.335-1.663Jul-111292.28-12.694-1.5251461.67-1.5257.27
October-0019.163-2.576-1.8471461.2-1.8477.23
November-005.524-0.6461393.6214.007-1.6281393.62-1.6287.21
December-0011.640-0.9551354.8812.109-1.3921354.88-1.3927.06
January-0125.0647.5111333.7514.0761.9701333.751.9706.91
February-01-3.2986.9401308.7411.1354.4991308.744.4996.75
March-01-20.5726.8391255.430.3987.0971255.437.0976.67
April-0119.2122.5491216.58-1.5535.4431216.585.4436.69
May-0118.1275.1241221.875.5894.8371221.874.8376.76
June-0110.8151.5761243.2216.0513.0831243.223.0836.84
July-01-1.2317.0091230.489.2374.5701230.484.5706.84
August-01-4.81613.7331188.211.5897.4391188.217.4396.73
September-01-29.3538.0001127.07-11.8009.5811127.079.5816.68
October-010.92311.6091076.58-11.08211.1141076.5811.1146.59
November-0115.2975.9981080.06-4.3788.5361080.068.5366.54
December-012.921-0.9691115.776.3805.5461115.775.5466.53
January-0220.0489.0061139.2412.7554.6781139.244.6786.53
February-025.4048.3911128.349.4585.4761128.345.4766.51
March-0229.6276.8211128.1118.3608.0731128.118.0736.55
April-0212.9266.9981110.3515.9867.4031110.357.4036.61
May-024.8759.0681097.1515.8097.6291097.157.6296.68
June-02-18.27910.4171044.63-0.1598.8281044.638.8286.6
July-02-52.60824.334989.53-22.00414.606989.5314.6066.52nd
highest bond inflow
August-02-3.06313.630939.17-24.65016.127939.1716.1276.3
September-02-16.09513.121880.99-23.92217.028880.9917.0286.07
October-02-7.5207.977872.37-8.89311.576872.3711.5765.95
November-026.9537.823879.12-5.5549.640879.129.6405.93
December-02-8.3016.620900.3-2.9567.473900.37.4735.96
January-03-0.37112.801890.28-0.5739.081890.289.0815.91
February-03-11.09417.925858.56-6.58912.449858.5612.4495.79
March-03-0.27610.630848.34-3.91413.785848.3413.7855.68
April-0316.10610.875868.751.57913.143868.7513.1435.56
May-0311.9287.680909.569.2539.728909.569.7285.37
June-0318.6565.261974.515.5637.939951.677.9395.2
July-03
August-03
September-03
October-03
November-03
December-03
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Projection Bias
If The Past Works Against You Change The Past
-
© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
A B
Chart1aaa
32905
32933
32965
32994
33025
33056
33086
33120
33147
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33210
33240
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33298
33329
33359
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37928
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38508
38562
38595
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38691
38723
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38813
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38904
38935
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39141
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39416
39447
39478
39506
39538
39568
39599
39629
39660
39691
39721
39752
39782
39813
39844
39872
39903
39933
39964
39994
40025
40056
40086
40117
40147
40178
40209
40237
40268
40298
40329
40359
40390
40421
40451
40482
40492
40543
40574
40602
40633
40663
40694
40724
40755
40786
40816
40847
40877
40908
40939
40967
40999
41029
41060
41090
41121
41152
41182
41213
41243
41274
41305
41333
41364
41394
41425
41455
41486
41517
41547
41578
41608
41639
41670
41698
41729
41759
41790
41820
41851
41882
41912
41943
41973
42004
42019
42050
42078
42109
42139
42185
42216
42247
42277
42308
42338
42339
42400
42429
42460
42490
42520
42541
42582
42613
42643
42674
42704
42735
42766
42794
42825
42855
42886
42916
42947
42978
43008
43039
43069
43100
43131
43159
43190
43208
43238
43269
43299
331.89
339.94
330.8
361.23
358.02
356.15
322.56
306.05
304
322.22
330.22
343.93
367.07
375.22
375.34
389.83
371.16
387.81
395.43
387.86
392.45
375.22
417.09
408.78
412.7
403.69
414.95
415.35
408.14
424.21
414.03
417.8
418.68
431.35
435.71
438.78
443.38
451.67
440.19
450.19
450.53
448.13
463.56
458.93
467.83
461.79
466.45
481.61
467.14
445.77
450.91
456.5
444.27
458.26
475.49
462.71
472.35
453.69
459.27
470.42
487.39
500.71
669.12
670.63
639.95
651.99
687.33
705.27
757.02
740.74
786.16
790.82
757.12
801.34
848.28
885.14
954.31
899.47
947.28
914.62
955.4
970.43
980.28
1049.34
1101.75
1111.75
1090.82
1133.84
1120.67
957.28
1017.01
1098.67
1163.63
1229.23
1279.64
1238.33
1286.37
1335.18
1301.84
1372.71
1328.72
1320.41
1282.71
1362.93
1388.91
1469.25
1394.46
1366.42
1498.58
1452.43
1420.6
1454.6
1430.83
1517.68
1436.51
1429.4
1314.95
1320.28
1366.01
1239.94
1160.33
1249.46
1255.82
1224.38
1211.23
1129.03
1040.94
1059.78
1139.45
1148.08
1130.2
1106.73
1147.39
1076.92
1067.14
989.82
911.62
916.07
815.28
885.76
936.31
879.82
855.7
841.15
848.18
916.92
963.59
974.5
990.31
1008.01
995.97
1050.71
1058.2
1111.92
1131.13
1144.94
1126.21
1107.3
1120.68
1140.84
1101.72
1104.24
1114.58
1130.82
1173.82
1211.92
1181.27
1203.6
1180.59
1156.85
1191.5
1191.33
1234.18
1220.33
1228.81
1207.01
1249.48
1248.29
1280.08
1280.66
1294.83
1310.61
1270.09
1270.2
1276.66
1303.82
1335.85
1377.94
1400.63
1418.3
1438.24
1406.82
1420.86
1482.37
1530.62
1503.35
1455.27
1473.99
1526.75
1549.38
1481.14
1468.36
1378.55
1330.63
1322.7
1385.59
1400.38
1280
1267.38
1282.83
1164.74
968.75
896.24
903.25
825.88
735.09
797.87
872.81
919.14
919.32
987.48
1020.62
1057.08
1036.19
1095.63
1115.1
1073.87
1104.29
1169.43
1186.69
1089.41
1030.71
1101.6
1049.33
1141.2
1183.26
1180.55
1257.64
1286.12
1327.22
1325.83
1363.61
1345.2
1320.64
1292.28
1218.89
1131.42
1253.3
1246.96
1257.6
1312.41
1365.68
1408.47
1397.91
1310.33
1362.16
1379.32
1406.58
1440.67
1412.16
1416.18
1426.19
1498.11
1514.68
1569.19
1597.57
1630.74
1606.28
1685.73
1632.97
1681.55
1756.54
1805.81
1848.36
1782.59
1859.45
1872.34
1883.95
1923.57
1960.23
1930.67
2003.37
1972.29
2018.05
2067.56
2058.9
1994.99
2104.5
2067.89
2085.51
2107.39
2063.11
2103.84
1972.18
1920.03
2079.36
2093.25
2043.94
1940.24
1932.23
2059.74
2065.3
2096.96
2098.86
2173.6
2170.95
2168.27
2126.15
2198.81
2238.83
2278.87
2363.64
2362.72
2384.2
2411.8
2423.41
2470.3
2471.65
2519.36
2575.26
2647.58
2673.61
2823.81
2713.83
2640.87
2648.05
2705.27
2718.37
2816.29
91-96
375.34
389.83
371.16
387.81
395.43
387.86
392.45
375.22
417.09
408.78
412.7
403.69
414.95
415.35
408.14
424.21
414.03
417.8
418.68
431.35
435.71
438.78
443.38
451.67
440.19
450.19
450.53
448.13
463.56
458.93
467.83
461.79
466.45
481.61
467.14
445.77
450.91
456.5
444.27
458.26
475.49
462.71
472.35
453.69
459.27
470.42
487.39
500.71
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
A
Sheet1
Feb-90331.89
Mar-90339.94
Apr-90330.80
May-90361.23
Jun-90358.02
Jul-90356.15
Aug-90322.56
Sep-90306.05
Oct-90304.00
Nov-90322.22
Dec-90330.22
Jan-91343.93
Feb-91367.07
Mar-91375.22
Apr-91375.34
May-91389.83
Jun-91371.16
Jul-91387.81
Aug-91395.43
Sep-91387.86
Oct-91392.45
Nov-91375.22
Dec-91417.09
Jan-92408.78
Feb-92412.70
Mar-92403.69
Apr-92414.95
May-92415.35
Jun-92408.14
Jul-92424.21
Aug-92414.03
Sep-92417.80
Oct-92418.68
Nov-92431.35
Dec-92435.71
Jan-93438.78
Feb-93443.38
Mar-93451.67
Apr-93440.19
May-93450.19
Jun-93450.53
Jul-93448.13
Aug-93463.56
Sep-93458.93
Oct-93467.83
Nov-93461.79
Dec-93466.45
Jan-94481.61
Feb-94467.14
Mar-94445.77
Apr-94450.91
May-94456.50
Jun-94444.27
Jul-94458.26
Aug-94475.49
Sep-94462.71
Oct-94472.35
Nov-94453.69
Dec-94459.27
Jan-95470.42
Feb-95487.39
Mar-95500.71
Apr-951000.00
May-951000.00
Jun-951000.00
Jul-951000.00
Aug-951000.00
Sep-951000.00
Oct-951000.00
Nov-951000.00
Dec-951000.00
Jan-961000.00
Feb-961000.00
Mar-961000.00
Apr-961000.00
May-96669.12
Jun-96670.63
Jul-96639.95
Aug-96651.99
Sep-96687.33
Oct-96705.27
Nov-96757.02
Dec-96740.74
Jan-97786.16
Feb-97790.82
Mar-97757.12
Apr-97801.34
May-97848.28
Jun-97885.14
Jul-97954.31
Aug-97899.47
Sep-97947.28
Oct-97914.62
Nov-97955.40
Dec-97970.43
Jan-98980.28
Feb-981049.34
Mar-981101.75
Apr-981111.75
May-981090.82
Jun-981133.84
Jul-981120.67
Aug-98957.28
Sep-981017.01
Oct-981098.67
Nov-981163.63
Dec-981229.23
Jan-991279.64
Feb-991238.33
Mar-991286.37
Apr-991335.18
May-991301.84
Jun-991372.71
Jul-991328.72
Aug-991320.41
Sep-991282.71
Oct-991362.93
Nov-991388.91
Dec-991469.25
Jan-001394.46
Feb-001366.42
Mar-001498.58
Apr-001452.43
May-001420.60
Jun-001454.60
Jul-001430.83
Aug-001517.68
Sep-001436.51
Oct-001429.40
Nov-001314.95
Dec-001320.28
Jan-011366.01
Feb-011239.94
Mar-011160.33
Apr-011249.46
May-011255.82
Jun-011224.38
Jul-011211.23
Aug-011129.03
Sep-011040.94
Oct-011059.78
Nov-011139.45
Dec-011148.08
Jan-021130.20
Feb-021106.73
Mar-021147.39
Apr-021076.92
May-021067.14
Jun-02989.82
Jul-02911.62
Aug-02916.07
Sep-02815.28
Oct-02885.76
Nov-02936.31
Dec-02879.82
Jan-03855.70
Feb-03841.15
Mar-03848.18
Apr-03916.92
May-03963.59
Jun-03974.50
Jul-03990.31
Aug-031008.01
Sep-03995.97
Oct-031050.71
Nov-031058.20
Dec-031111.92
Jan-041131.13
Feb-041144.94
Mar-041126.21
Apr-041107.30
May-041120.68
Jun-041140.84
Jul-041101.72
Aug-041104.24
Sep-041114.58
Oct-041130.82
Nov-041173.82
Dec-041211.92
Jan-051181.27
Feb-051203.60
Mar-051180.59
Apr-051156.85
May-051191.50
Jun-051191.33
Jul-051234.18
Aug-051220.33
Sep-051228.81
Oct-051207.01
Nov-051249.48
Dec-051248.29
Jan-061280.08
Feb-061280.66
Mar-061294.83
Apr-061310.61
May-061270.09
Jun-061270.20
Jul-061276.66
Aug-061303.82
Sep-061335.85
Oct-061377.94
Nov-061400.63
Dec-061418.30
Jan-071438.24
Feb-071406.82
Mar-071420.86
Apr-071482.37
May-071530.62
Jun-071503.35
Jul-071455.27
Aug-071473.99
Sep-071526.75
Oct-071549.38
Nov-071481.14
Dec-071468.36
Jan-081378.55
Feb-081330.63
Mar-081322.70
Apr-081385.59
May-081400.38
Jun-081280.00
Jul-081267.38
Aug-081282.83
Sep-081164.74
Oct-08968.75
Nov-08896.24
Dec-08903.25
Jan-09825.88
Feb-09735.09
Mar-09797.87
Apr-09872.81
May-09919.14
Jun-09919.32
Jul-09987.48
Aug-091020.62
Sep-091057.08
Oct-091036.19
Nov-091095.63
Dec-091115.10
Jan-101073.87
Feb-101104.29
Mar-101169.43
Apr-101186.69
May-101089.41
Jun-101030.71
Jul-101101.60
Aug-101049.33
Sep-101141.20
Oct-101183.26
Nov-101180.55
Dec-101257.64
Jan-111286.12
Feb-111327.22
Mar-111325.83
Apr-111363.61
May-111345.20
Jun-111320.64
Jul-111292.28
Aug-111218.89
Sep-111131.42
Oct-111253.30
Nov-111246.96
Dec-111257.60
Jan-121312.41
Feb-121365.68
Mar-121408.47
Apr-121397.91
May-121310.33
Jun-121362.16
Jul-121379.32
Aug-121406.58
Sep-121440.67
Oct-121412.16
Nov-121416.18
Dec-121426.19
Jan-131498.11
Feb-131514.68
Mar-131569.19
Apr-131597.57
May-131630.74
Jun-131606.28
Jul-131685.73
Aug-131632.97
Sep-131681.55
Oct-131756.54
Nov-131805.81
Dec-131848.36
Jan-141782.59
Feb-141859.45
Mar-141872.34
Apr-141883.95
May-141923.57
Jun-141960.23
Jul-141930.67
Aug-142003.37
Sep-141972.29
Oct-142018.05
Nov-142067.56
Dec-142058.90
Jan-151994.99
Feb-152104.50
Mar-152067.89
Apr-152085.51
May-152107.39
Jun-152063.11
Jul-152103.84
Aug-151972.18
Sep-151920.03
Oct-152079.36
Nov-152093.25
Dec-152043.94
Jan-161940.24
Feb-161932.23
Mar-162059.74
Apr-162065.30
May-162096.96
Jun-162098.86
Jul-162173.60
Aug-162170.95
Sep-162168.27
Oct-162126.15
Nov-162198.81
Dec-162238.83
Jan-172278.87
Feb-172363.64
Mar-172362.72
Apr-172384.20
May-172411.80
Jun-172423.41
Jul-172470.30
Aug-172471.65
Sep-172519.36
Oct-172575.26
Nov-172647.58
Dec-172673.61
Jan-182823.81
Feb-182713.83
Mar-182640.87
18-Apr2648.05
18-May2705.27
18-Jun2718.37
18-Jul2816.29
Sheet2
Sheet3
Chart1aaa
32905
32933
32965
32994
33025
33056
33086
33120
33147
33178
33210
33240
33270
33298
33329
33359
33392
33420
33451
33484
33512
33543
33574
33605
33637
33665
33695
33725
33756
33786
33819
33848
33878
33910
33939
33973
34001
34029
34060
34092
34121
34151
34183
34213
34243
34274
34304
34337
34366
34394
34428
34456
34486
34516
34547
34578
34610
34639
34669
34702
34731
34759
34792
34820
34851
34883
34912
34943
34974
35004
35034
35066
35096
35125
35156
35186
35219
35247
35278
35311
35339
35370
35401
35432
35464
35492
35521
35551
35583
35612
35643
35675
35704
35737
35765
35797
35828
35856
35886
35916
35947
35977
36010
36039
36069
36101
36130
36164
36192
36220
36251
36283
36312
36342
36374
36404
36434
36465
36495
36528
36557
36586
36619
36647
36678
36710
36739
36770
36801
36831
36861
36893
36923
36951
36983
37012
37043
37074
37104
37138
37165
37196
37228
37258
37288
37316
37347
37377
37410
37438
37469
37502
37530
37561
37592
37624
37655
37683
37714
37744
37775
37805
37836
37867
37897
37928
37958
37990
38021
38050
38081
38111
38142
38172
38203
38234
38264
38295
38325
38357
38388
38416
38447
38477
38508
38562
38595
38600
38630
38661
38691
38723
38754
38782
38813
38843
38874
38904
38935
38968
38996
39026
39057
39113
39141
39172
39202
39233
39263
39294
39325
39355
39386
39416
39447
39478
39506
39538
39568
39599
39629
39660
39691
39721
39752
39782
39813
39844
39872
39903
39933
39964
39994
40025
40056
40086
40117
40147
40178
40209
40237
40268
40298
40329
40359
40390
40421
40451
40482
40492
40543
40574
40602
40633
40663
40694
40724
40755
40786
40816
40847
40877
40908
40939
40967
40999
41029
41060
41090
41121
41152
41182
41213
41243
41274
41305
41333
41364
41394
41425
41455
41486
41517
41547
41578
41608
41639
41670
41698
41729
41759
41790
41820
41851
41882
41912
41943
41973
42004
42019
42050
42078
42109
42139
42185
42216
42247
42277
42308
42338
42339
42400
42429
42460
42490
42520
42541
42582
42613
42643
42674
42704
42735
42766
42794
42825
42855
42886
42916
42947
42978
43008
43039
43069
43100
43131
43159
43190
43208
43238
43269
43299
331.89
339.94
330.8
361.23
358.02
356.15
322.56
306.05
304
322.22
330.22
343.93
367.07
375.22
375.34
389.83
371.16
387.81
395.43
387.86
392.45
375.22
417.09
408.78
412.7
403.69
414.95
415.35
408.14
424.21
414.03
417.8
418.68
431.35
435.71
438.78
443.38
451.67
440.19
450.19
450.53
448.13
463.56
458.93
467.83
461.79
466.45
481.61
467.14
445.77
450.91
456.5
444.27
458.26
475.49
462.71
472.35
453.69
459.27
470.42
487.39
500.71
669.12
670.63
639.95
651.99
687.33
705.27
757.02
740.74
786.16
790.82
757.12
801.34
848.28
885.14
954.31
899.47
947.28
914.62
955.4
970.43
980.28
1049.34
1101.75
1111.75
1090.82
1133.84
1120.67
957.28
1017.01
1098.67
1163.63
1229.23
1279.64
1238.33
1286.37
1335.18
1301.84
1372.71
1328.72
1320.41
1282.71
1362.93
1388.91
1469.25
1394.46
1366.42
1498.58
1452.43
1420.6
1454.6
1430.83
1059.78
1139.45
1148.08
1130.2
1106.73
1147.39
1076.92
1067.14
989.82
911.62
916.07
815.28
885.76
936.31
879.82
855.7
841.15
848.18
916.92
963.59
974.5
990.31
1008.01
995.97
1050.71
1058.2
1111.92
1131.13
1144.94
1126.21
1107.3
1120.68
1140.84
1101.72
1104.24
1114.58
1130.82
1173.82
1211.92
1181.27
1203.6
1180.59
1156.85
1191.5
1191.33
1234.18
1220.33
1228.81
1207.01
1249.48
1248.29
1280.08
1280.66
1294.83
1310.61
1270.09
1270.2
1276.66
1303.82
1335.85
1377.94
1400.63
1418.3
1438.24
1406.82
1420.86
1482.37
1530.62
1503.35
1455.27
1473.99
1526.75
1549.38
1481.14
1468.36
1378.55
1330.63
1322.7
1385.59
1400.38
1280
1267.38
1282.83
1164.74
968.75
896.24
903.25
825.88
735.09
797.87
872.81
919.14
919.32
987.48
1020.62
1057.08
1036.19
1095.63
1115.1
1073.87
1104.29
1169.43
1186.69
1089.41
1030.71
1101.6
1049.33
1141.2
1183.26
1180.55
1257.64
1286.12
1327.22
1325.83
1363.61
1345.2
1320.64
1292.28
1218.89
1131.42
1253.3
1246.96
1257.6
1312.41
1365.68
1408.47
1397.91
1310.33
1362.16
1379.32
1406.58
1440.67
1412.16
1416.18
1426.19
1498.11
1514.68
1569.19
1597.57
1630.74
1606.28
1685.73
1632.97
1681.55
1756.54
1805.81
1848.36
1782.59
1859.45
1872.34
1883.95
1923.57
1960.23
1930.67
2003.37
1972.29
2018.05
2067.56
2058.9
1994.99
2104.5
2067.89
2085.51
2107.39
2063.11
2103.84
1972.18
1920.03
2079.36
2093.25
2043.94
1940.24
1932.23
2059.74
2065.3
2096.96
2098.86
2173.6
2170.95
2168.27
2126.15
2198.81
2238.83
2278.87
2363.64
2362.72
2384.2
2411.8
2423.41
2470.3
2471.65
2519.36
2575.26
2647.58
2673.61
2823.81
2713.83
2640.87
2648.05
2705.27
2718.37
2816.29
91-96
375.34
389.83
371.16
387.81
395.43
387.86
392.45
375.22
417.09
408.78
412.7
403.69
414.95
415.35
408.14
424.21
414.03
417.8
418.68
431.35
435.71
438.78
443.38
451.67
440.19
450.19
450.53
448.13
463.56
458.93
467.83
461.79
466.45
481.61
467.14
445.77
450.91
456.5
444.27
458.26
475.49
462.71
472.35
453.69
459.27
470.42
487.39
500.71
514.71
533.4
544.75
562.06
561.88
584.41
581.5
605.37
615.93
636.02
640.43
645.5
654.17
1991-1996
96-01
639.95
651.99
687.33
705.27
757.02
740.74
786.16
790.82
757.12
801.34
848.28
885.14
954.31
899.47
947.28
914.62
955.4
970.43
980.28
1049.34
1101.75
1111.75
1090.82
1133.84
1120.67
957.28
1017.01
1098.67
1163.63
1229.23
1279.64
1238.33
1286.37
1335.18
1301.84
1372.71
1328.72
1320.41
1282.71
1362.93
1388.91
1469.25
1394.46
1366.42
1498.58
1452.43
1420.6
1454.6
1430.83
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
B
Sheet1
Feb-90331.89
Mar-90339.94
Apr-90330.80
May-90361.23
Jun-90358.02
Jul-90356.15
Aug-90322.56
Sep-90306.05
Oct-90304.00
Nov-90322.22
Dec-90330.22
Jan-91343.93
Feb-91367.07
Mar-91375.22
Apr-91375.34
May-91389.83
Jun-91371.16
Jul-91387.81
Aug-91395.43
Sep-91387.86
Oct-91392.45
Nov-91375.22
Dec-91417.09
Jan-92408.78
Feb-92412.70
Mar-92403.69
Apr-92414.95
May-92415.35
Jun-92408.14
Jul-92424.21
Aug-92414.03
Sep-92417.80
Oct-92418.68
Nov-92431.35
Dec-92435.71
Jan-93438.78
Feb-93443.38
Mar-93451.67
Apr-93440.19
May-93450.19
Jun-93450.53
Jul-93448.13
Aug-93463.56
Sep-93458.93
Oct-93467.83
Nov-93461.79
Dec-93466.45
Jan-94481.61
Feb-94467.14
Mar-94445.77
Apr-94450.91
May-94456.50
Jun-94444.27
Jul-94458.26
Aug-94475.49
Sep-94462.71
Oct-94472.35
Nov-94453.69
Dec-94459.27
Jan-95470.42
Feb-95487.39
Mar-95500.71
Apr-95514.71
May-95533.40
Jun-95544.75
Jul-95562.06
Aug-95561.88
Sep-95584.41
Oct-95581.50
Nov-95605.37
Dec-95615.93
Jan-96636.02
Feb-96640.43
Mar-96645.50
Apr-96654.17
May-96669.12
Jun-96670.63
Jul-96639.95
Aug-96651.99
Sep-96687.33
Oct-96705.27
Nov-96757.02
Dec-96740.74
Jan-97786.16
Feb-97790.82
Mar-97757.12
Apr-97801.34
May-97848.28
Jun-97885.14
Jul-97954.31
Aug-97899.47
Sep-97947.28
Oct-97914.62
Nov-97955.40
Dec-97970.43
Jan-98980.28
Feb-981049.34
Mar-981101.75
Apr-981111.75
May-981090.82
Jun-981133.84
Jul-981120.67
Aug-98957.28
Sep-981017.01
Oct-981098.67
Nov-981163.63
Dec-981229.23
Jan-991279.64
Feb-991238.33
Mar-991286.37
Apr-991335.18
May-991301.84
Jun-991372.71
Jul-991328.72
Aug-991320.41
Sep-991282.71
Oct-991362.93
Nov-991388.91
Dec-991469.25
Jan-001394.46
Feb-001366.42
Mar-001498.58
Apr-001452.43
May-001420.60
Jun-001454.60
Jul-001430.83
Aug-002500.00
Sep-002500.00
Oct-002500.00
Nov-002500.00
Dec-002500.00
Jan-012500.00
Feb-012500.00
Mar-012500.00
Apr-012500.00
May-012500.00
Jun-012500.00
Jul-012500.00
Aug-012500.00
Sep-012500.00
Oct-011059.78
Nov-011139.45
Dec-011148.08
Jan-021130.20
Feb-021106.73
Mar-021147.39
Apr-021076.92
May-021067.14
Jun-02989.82
Jul-02911.62
Aug-02916.07
Sep-02815.28
Oct-02885.76
Nov-02936.31
Dec-02879.82
Jan-03855.70
Feb-03841.15
Mar-03848.18
Apr-03916.92
May-03963.59
Jun-03974.50
Jul-03990.31
Aug-031008.01
Sep-03995.97
Oct-031050.71
Nov-031058.20
Dec-031111.92
Jan-041131.13
Feb-041144.94
Mar-041126.21
Apr-041107.30
May-041120.68
Jun-041140.84
Jul-041101.72
Aug-041104.24
Sep-041114.58
Oct-041130.82
Nov-041173.82
Dec-041211.92
Jan-051181.27
Feb-051203.60
Mar-051180.59
Apr-051156.85
May-051191.50
Jun-051191.33
Jul-051234.18
Aug-051220.33
Sep-051228.81
Oct-051207.01
Nov-051249.48
Dec-051248.29
Jan-061280.08
Feb-061280.66
Mar-061294.83
Apr-061310.61
May-061270.09
Jun-061270.20
Jul-061276.66
Aug-061303.82
Sep-061335.85
Oct-061377.94
Nov-061400.63
Dec-061418.30
Jan-071438.24
Feb-071406.82
Mar-071420.86
Apr-071482.37
May-071530.62
Jun-071503.35
Jul-071455.27
Aug-071473.99
Sep-071526.75
Oct-071549.38
Nov-071481.14
Dec-071468.36
Jan-081378.55
Feb-081330.63
Mar-081322.70
Apr-081385.59
May-081400.38
Jun-081280.00
Jul-081267.38
Aug-081282.83
Sep-081164.74
Oct-08968.75
Nov-08896.24
Dec-08903.25
Jan-09825.88
Feb-09735.09
Mar-09797.87
Apr-09872.81
May-09919.14
Jun-09919.32
Jul-09987.48
Aug-091020.62
Sep-091057.08
Oct-091036.19
Nov-091095.63
Dec-091115.10
Jan-101073.87
Feb-101104.29
Mar-101169.43
Apr-101186.69
May-101089.41
Jun-101030.71
Jul-101101.60
Aug-101049.33
Sep-101141.20
Oct-101183.26
Nov-101180.55
Dec-101257.64
Jan-111286.12
Feb-111327.22
Mar-111325.83
Apr-111363.61
May-111345.20
Jun-111320.64
Jul-111292.28
Aug-111218.89
Sep-111131.42
Oct-111253.30
Nov-111246.96
Dec-111257.60
Jan-121312.41
Feb-121365.68
Mar-121408.47
Apr-121397.91
May-121310.33
Jun-121362.16
Jul-121379.32
Aug-121406.58
Sep-121440.67
Oct-121412.16
Nov-121416.18
Dec-121426.19
Jan-131498.11
Feb-131514.68
Mar-131569.19
Apr-131597.57
May-131630.74
Jun-131606.28
Jul-131685.73
Aug-131632.97
Sep-131681.55
Oct-131756.54
Nov-131805.81
Dec-131848.36
Jan-141782.59
Feb-141859.45
Mar-141872.34
Apr-141883.95
May-141923.57
Jun-141960.23
Jul-141930.67
Aug-142003.37
Sep-141972.29
Oct-142018.05
Nov-142067.56
Dec-142058.90
Jan-151994.99
Feb-152104.50
Mar-152067.89
Apr-152085.51
May-152107.39
Jun-152063.11
Jul-152103.84
Aug-151972.18
Sep-151920.03
Oct-152079.36
Nov-152093.25
Dec-152043.94
Jan-161940.24
Feb-161932.23
Mar-162059.74
Apr-162065.30
May-162096.96
Jun-162098.86
Jul-162173.60
Aug-162170.95
Sep-162168.27
Oct-162126.15
Nov-162198.81
Dec-162238.83
Jan-172278.87
Feb-172363.64
Mar-172362.72
Apr-172384.20
May-172411.80
Jun-172423.41
Jul-172470.30
Aug-172471.65
Sep-172519.36
Oct-172575.26
Nov-172647.58
Dec-172673.61
Jan-182823.81
Feb-182713.83
Mar-182640.87
18-Apr2648.05
18-May2705.27
18-Jun2718.37
18-Jul2816.29
Sheet2
Sheet3
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© Advantage Compendium, Ltd.
Projection Bias: Fortune Teller Success 1991-1996 1996-2001
Chart1aaa
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32994
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40147
40178
40209
40237
40268
40298
40329
40359
40390
40421
40451
40482
40492
40543
40574
40602
40633
40663
40694
40724
40755
40786
40816
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40877
40908
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40999
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41090
41121
41152
41182
41213
41243
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41943
41973
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42019
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