The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research

Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

• How certain can we be about climate change?• How do we manage the unavoidable?• How do we avoid the unmanageable?

• Finding policy alliances for climate change

Climate change: the latest evidence

Professor Mike HulmeDirector, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

LCVP Annual Conference, 15 June 2006, London

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research

Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

can we be certain about climate change?

UK warming

6

7

8

9

10

11

1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

an

nu

al C

en

tral E

ng

lan

d T

em

pera

ture

(d

eg

C)

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

an

nu

al U

K s

ea s

urf

ace tem

pera

ture

(d

eg

C)

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research

Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

Physical evidence …the Vernagt Glacier, Austria

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research

Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

Extreme central European summer

temperature … 2003

Source: Luterbacher et al. 2004

CO2 concentrations

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research

Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

Risk of overshooting 2ºC target

Source: den Elzen and Meinshausen

pH reduced by 0.3 to 0.4 by 2100 under IS92a (i.e., a 100% to 150% increase in [H+])

Orr et al. 2005 (Nature)Orr et al. 2005 (Nature)

Changes in ocean pH

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research

Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

how do we manage the unavoidable?

… building a resilient society

Tools for adaptation planning

UK national climate scenarios

Risk assessment framework

UK climate change programme

Heatwave 2003 – health care

• Record high temperatures (>37°C) in southeast England (and west-central Europe) in early August 2003

• 15,000 premature deaths across west-central Europe, mostly the elderly

• This led to UK National Health Service issuing a “Heatwave Plan for England” to minimise future adverse effects on human health

Public investment Thames Barrier Tidal, Fluvially dominated Closures(as at November 2004)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04

Years

No

of

Clo

sure

s

Tidal Fluvially dominated

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research

Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

how do we avoid the unmanageable?

... building a low carbon economy

Decoupling growth, consumption and emissions

Source: UK Climate Change Programme

Trade, tax or technology?

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research

Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

Negotiating beyond 2012

Source: David Victor

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research

Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

finding policy alliances for climate change

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research

Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

policy alliances

• energy security

• environmental protection

• energy efficiency

• ‘making poverty history’