How an Urbanizing Population is Affecting Change in Chinas Real
Estate Market A view through the lens of 30 years of project work
17 th Annual Fisher Center Real Estate Conference Anita Roth Senior
Economist, AECOM [email protected] @anitaroth12
1 234 Pearl River Delta (1979) NASA Earth Observatory
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1 234 Pearl River Delta (2003)
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1 234 Total Population (2011/12) 1.4 billion ~313 million China
(2011)US (2012) Chinas population is 4.3 times the size of the
U.S.s
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1 234 Population Growth Rate 0.52% 0.84% 1.47% 1.13% Population
Growth Rate China U.S.
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1 234 Chinas Population (2011) 1.4 billion China (2011)
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1 234 Urban Population >50% urban (690 million) 26% Compared
with In 1990
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1 234 Urban Population in urban areas >1 million 18% (240
million) 45% (140 million) Compared with In the U.S.
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1 234 GDP Growth Rate 10.4% 3.0% 3.8% 1.9% 8.2% Expected in
2012 China U.S.
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1 234 GDP (nominal) $7.3 trillion (US$) China (2011) Chinas
nominal GDP is 48% that of the U.S.s $15.1 trillion (US$) US
(2011)
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1 234 Real Estate Market as % of GDP 12% (US$710 billion) Real
Estate contribution to GDP
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1 234 AECOM Who we areAECOM 1 234
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1 234 Architecture Building Engineering Water Design + Planning
Environment Transportation Energy Program + Construction Mgmt.
Government Services AECOM Who we are
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1 234 Working in China >30 years of working on projects in
China 1 234
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1 234 Working in China >30 years of working on projects in
China 15 years with offices in China 1 234
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1 234 Working in China >30 years of working on projects in
China 15 years with offices in China 11 offices in China 1 234
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1 234 Working in China >30 years of working on projects in
China 15 years with offices in China 11 offices in China ~ 4,000
staff in China 1 234
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1 234 AECOMs Work in China
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1 234 Main Drivers of Development Economic PoliticalRegulatory
Development
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1 234 major trends in AECOMs project work in China* 6
*Disclaimer: None of these trends are really TRUE!
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1 234 Increase in tourism- oriented development Increase in
demand for economic services Increase in client sophistication
Increased public sector involvement Increase in urban infill
projects Increase in mixed use development Notable Trends
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1 234 Increase in Urban Infill Projects Suzhou Region, Jiangsu
Province 1
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1 234 Increase in Public Sector Involvement 2
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1 234 Increase in Mixed Use 3
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1 234 Increase in Client Sophistication 4
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1 234 Increase in Demand for Economic Services AECOM 2010 860
97 50 , 5
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1 234 Increase in Tourism-oriented Development 6
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1 234 Increase in tourism- oriented development Increase in
demand for economic services Increase in client sophistication
Increased public sector involvement Increase in urban infill
projects Increase in mixed use development Notable Trends