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Future of London and Navigant seminar on the future of affordable housing in London
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Beyond Affordable Rent:What next for housing?01 November 2011
Richard Blakeway, Greater London Authority
Nigel Minto, London Councils
David Gooch, Sanctuary Group
Dennis Seal, Kier Housing
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
Future of London1st November 2011
Life after the ‘affordable’ rent model?
Nigel Minto. Head of Housing and Planning. London Councils.
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
3
Outline of what I will cover.• Context – Where will we be post 2015.
Context - CSR Timeline.• Some questions• Viewpoint - What would boroughs like to see.• Speculation - What might happen after the
affordable’ rent model.
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
4
The pundits predictions on 2015.• ‘2015…The Queen has fled ‘– Daily Mail• ‘Blackouts could hit Britain by 2015’, says National Grid
chief - Daily Telegraph• Britain 'faces fuel shortages and dearer food by 2015’ –
Scotsman• ‘Student loans treble to £70bn’ – Economist• UK hospitality can create a further 236,000 jobs by 2015
– UK hospitality association
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
2015 The good news The UK will be hosting the 2015
Canoe Salom World Championships
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
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CSR/Delivery timeline
October 2010 CSR Announced
February 2011Affordable Rent programme bids open
May 2011Affordable Rent programme bids close
Sept/Nov 2011Affordable Rent programme contract signing phase
Dec/Feb 2015Practical completions and GLA payment to RPs
March2014?Last opportunity to influence 2015 CSR
October 2014?CSR Announced
February 2015?Affordable Rent programme bids open
May 2015?Affordable Rent programme bids close
Sept/Nov 2015?Affordable Rent programme contracts signed
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
Where will we be in 2015 – Some speculation on the challengeso Increased levels of overcrowdingo Increased levels of homelessness – Discharges into
PRS further from ‘home’ borough, longer stays in B&Bo Mobility – Increased demand and use of a London wide
mobility scheme, moving from an employment focus to addressing other forms of housing need.
o Reduced and older access to owner occupation - normalisation that owner occupation has peaked in London?
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
Where will we be in 2015 – Some speculationo Increasing pressure to counter growing squatting threato Increasing pressure for individuals to secure
‘unorthodox’ housing – Garages, sheds etco Wider access to RTB reduces what is left of Borough
and RP sub market social rento Established ‘dual income’ approach to housing access
and waiting listso Housing needs of younger housing households
increasing moving centre stage
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
Where will we be in 2015 – Some speculation• The exact date and amount of the CSR settlement -
Will London maintain its share of the national pot?• The level of remaining RP borrowing capacity.• How successful has the government been in
encouraging ‘institutional investment’ into the market.
• How successful has the government been in providing tax breaks to encourage investment in new supply.
• Have borough prudential borrowing restraints been relaxed.
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
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What would boroughs like to see• Having the ability to meet/facilitate a range of housing
needs and aspirations• Retaining the equity of their land and property assets • An increase the supply of affordable housing supply –
that meets their demand side needs• More influence over profile of what schemes are
delivered within their locality.• More influence over the nature and level of RP disposals• Maximising the amount of homes whose remit is within
the UC cap• Maximising the % of family sized homes
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
Post 2015 – The lights on the horizon?• The options
– Return to NAHP programme - Highly unlikely to happen
– Affordable rent programme - similar to as now– Hybrid programme with funding top ups via local
authority– Hybrid programme ‘reengineered’ by the GLA
(and possibly the boroughs)– A completely new RSL sourced model?– A completely new RSL/LB sourced model?
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
Post 2015 – The lights on the horizon?
• Hybrid programme with funding top ups via local authority
• CIL top up• New homes bonus top• Use of TIFs• Cheap land/deferred equity• Borough cash – prudential borrowing/HRA surplus• Borough/RSL Bond issue?• Borough/RSl equity fund?• Premium market rent vehicles – providing subsidy for below
market rent new build• Use of borough pension funding
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
Hybrid programme ‘reengineered’ by the GLA (and possibly the boroughs)
• Hybrid programme ‘reengineered’ by the GLA (and possibly the boroughs)
• (London) Affordable rent programme part 2 from 2013/14
• Mayoral housing and property development company
• GLA Housing Bank (subsidised cash)• Deferred equity on ex LDA/HCA land (subsided
land)• Redirection of Mayoral CIL (post 2018/19)
Beyond Affordable Rent:What next for housing?01 November 2011
Richard Blakeway, Greater London Authority
Nigel Minto, London Councils
David Gooch, Sanctuary Group
Dennis Seal, Kier
Future of LondonAdam House
1 Fitzroy SquareLondon
W1T 5HE
www.futureoflondon.org.uk© Future of London 2011 Ltd
Future of London 2011 Ltd is a company limited by guarantee registered in England (No. 7575624)
