Housing Need & Demand in Scotland

Kenneth Gibb

Seminar in Honour of Alan HolmansDecember 7 2015, LSE London

Scotland

• Local Housing Systems Analysis and Local Housing Strategies• Evolving Housing Needs (chiefly Glen)• Housing Needs and Demand Approaches led by Scottish

Government Centre for Housing Market Analysis (HNDA) Gross Flows models – interactions of households and housing stock – includes migration, household formation, affordability, etc. and forms the principal guidance in Scotland and England

• National ‘official’ estimates of annual need:- 8,000 in 2006- 12,000 in 2015

Gross Flows National Need Model 2015

• Core model and variations (migration, disaggregation and market growth)

• Backlog need (11,184)• Newly arising need

(26,461)• Affordable supply (27,326)• (adjusted figure) for annual

affordable need 12,014• Assumptions• Responses

Housing Demand and Supply

• Housebuilding performance• Prices, rents and affordability• Household and population growth• Lending and land• Scotland is different – policy divergence,

council tax and constitutional change opportunities

Alan’s contribution

• Critical to the evolution of housing needs and demand research

• Personally always very helpful and supportive• Memorable mixed metaphors