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Housing Market Update
Sue WoodardPresident: Content & Publishing
Rick ShargaExecutive Vice President of Carrington Mortgage Holdings
1. To Dial In:
YOU’VE GOT QUESTIONS…WE’VE GOT ANSWERS.
(BUT IF YOU CAN’T HEAR US…DIAL THE NUMBER ON YOUR INVITATION EMAIL OR DASHBOARD…WE’RE USING PHONE LINES, NOT MIC AND SPEAKERS.)
2. To Ask Questions:
Rick ShargaExecutive Vice President
Carrington Mortgage Holdings
• What We’ll Cover Today
Foreclosure outlook
A glimpse into the murky housing market future
New government initiatives
Questions and discussion
• About Carrington Holdings
• A full-service residential real estate, mortgage and investment organization
Carrington Mortgage Services• Lending in 42 states through retail and wholesale operations
• Full suite of products – FHA, conventional, VA, USDA
• Specialty Servicer, with focus on non‐performing loans
Affiliated Companies Offer Ancillary Services• Carrington Property Services – Asset management
• White Van Real Estate Services – Property preservation
• Atlantic & Pacific Real Estate – Full‐service real estate brokerage
• Telsi Real Estate Services – Title, escrow, insurance
www.carringtonhc.com
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Foreclosure Activity 2005-2011
• Foreclosure Activity 2005-2011
2011 activity was artificially lower due to “robo‐signing” issues and the ongoing AG settlement negotiations
• Approximately 1 million foreclosure actions were likely delayed
Foreclosure timelines have become extremely long, especially in states with judicial foreclosure processes
Most likely scenario is for delinquencies to peak, followed by higher levels of foreclosures and REOs over the next several years
• Foreclosure activity continues to outpace sales and put pressure on housing prices
• U.S. Foreclosure Activity 2005-2011
• Loans Staying in Foreclosure Longer
• Judicial Processes Slowing Foreclosures
• Short Sales Increase
• But Inventory Outpaces Sales Activity
• REO Inventory Hasn’t Peaked Yet
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Challenges for the Housing Market
• Housing Market Faces Numerous Challenges
Unemployment continues to impact new and existing home sales
Distressed property sales drive down home prices• Overhang of shadow inventory exacerbates the situation
Underwater borrowers are a strategic default risk, and prevent a resurgence of the “move up” market
• Unemployment and Existing Home Sales
• Unemployment and New Home Sales
• Distressed inventory keeps prices low
Sources: RealtyTrac S&P/Case‐Shiller
• Shadow Inventory Declining, But Massive
• Hardest-Hit States Have Most Underwater Loans
• High Number of Seriously Underwater Loans
• Distressed Sales Driving Prices Down
• Non-Distressed Prices Relatively Stable
• Home Prices Appear to be Stabilizing
• Housing Market Outlook
• Stabilizing in 2012, followed by a long, protracted recovery
Foreclosure activity may have peaked in 2010• BUT, monthly levels will remain high through 2012• REO inventories will stay at high levels through 2014
There is a massive “shadow inventory” that will slow down the housing market recovery
• 650,000 REOs – 600,000 not listed for sale• 700,000 homes currently in foreclosure• 3.5 million loans in some stage of delinquency
Most likely scenario is for these homes to make it to market very s‐l‐o‐w‐l‐y over the next 3‐4 years
• This will result in a long, slow, largely flat recovery
• The Government is Here to Help!
• New Government Programs and Initiatives
New AG settlement provides sense of certainty – but leaves many questions unanswered
New FHA and HARP 2.0 refinance programs
FHFA mandate to re‐engage private capital, wind down Fannie and Freddie –without de‐stabilizing the mortgage and housing markets
REO to rental conversion shows promise, but is slow getting started
Regulatory environment becoming more difficult at precisely the wrong time
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Questions & Discussion
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Rick Sharga, EVP Carrington Mortgage Holdings(949) 517-7310 [email protected]
