With less than two weeks to go to the 2015 General Election, the field is still wide open.

Here we look at the form of the runners and riders and how the bookies are positioning them. We also consider the recently launched manifestos and what they would mean for the industry.

Big ScalpsSome big names, including party leaders, may

lose their constituency campaigns in the 2015

parliamentary election.

Nick Clegg may be on course for a Portillo moment

in Sheffield Hallam as Labour’s Oliver Coppard has

mobilised students sore about tuition fees to campaign

against him and Nigel Farage may fail to take South

Thanet. In fact, William Hill are giving 6/1 on both Nick

Clegg and Nigel Farage losing in their constituencies.

Nigel Farage has previously indicated that he would

stand down as party leader if he does not get elected

to Parliament, although given his previous form on

consistency, this may well change.

In Scotland, Labour and Liberal Democrat losses will

be significant and big names are inevitable to fall as the

SNP pick up the majority of seats.

So what will the outcome be?The likelihood that we will know the shape of our

next government the morning after 7 May 2015 is

slim at best.

Both major parties have a puncher’s chance of an

outright majority but a hung parliament is still by far the

most likely outcome.

In total, there are 650 seats up for grabs but as the

Speaker generally doesn’t vote and potentially the five

Sinn Fein MPs do not take up their seats, this puts the

magic number needed by either to come up with an

effective majority at 323 seats.

At present, pollsters have the Conservatives winning

the largest amount of seats but odds are changing daily

for a Labour minority government and for Ed Miliband

becoming Prime Minister. By contrast, the odds are

drifting for David Cameron remaining in office with

minority control.

People are seeing Miliband as more confident and less

awkward. Are perceptions shifting?

According to the political betting markets, a Labour

minority is most likely with 37% support against only

15.8% for the Conservatives in a minority and 14.4% in a

coalition (figures from Betfair - https://www.betfair.com/

sport/politics).

Of course, the Conservative Party hopes for an outright

majority and that a good record in government will

see them through but they face a serious challenge in

actually getting there. The maths just don’t seem to

quite work.

Housing BritainApril 2015

ELECTION 2015 – A recipe for uncertainty and compromise?

Even if the Conservatives pull away a little closer to 7

May by a couple of percentage points, they would still

fall somewhat short of the required number of seats

and have to do a deal with other parties. The problem

when looking at those numbers is that it still looks very

tough for them to get to that magic number. Could they

get there along with the Liberal Democrats, UKIP and

the DUP in Northern Ireland and would that work, even

if they wanted it to?

Labour, of course, are also talking down the prospect

of forming a minority government but the reality is that

they will only form a government by doing a deal with

others and they will be further away from the 323 seats

required than the Conservatives. They will likely also

need the SNP. This is the reason why there has been

such intensive argument about a Labour-SNP coalition

or vote-by-vote arrangement and why the opposition

leaders’ debate was dominated by Miliband vs Sturgeon.

Come the 8 May deals will be discussed and possibly it

won’t be a firm coalition 2.0 but instead we head back to

the 70s with a confidence and supply agreement. This

is how a minority government ensures it survives any

vote of no confidence and also gets budgets through

(supply). Other voting in the House will need to work

on a vote-by-vote basis whereby horse-trading will,

undoubtedly, be rife.

This next government may be an exhausting

environment whatever its composition, where votes in

the House will go through by the slimmest of margins

and the deal making will be continuous. Could this

lead to another 1974, a year in which the country went

twice to the polls? The similarities to this election are

actually striking and whilst a second election may force

the public to make a clearer choice it would also lead to

more inactivity, less investment and more delay. None

of this can be good for our industry or economy.

Manifestos on housingManifestos are interesting when considering the

political environment in which we are now living.

A manifesto, of course, is a declaration of policies,

which would be adopted if the party publishing it

were to form a majority government - a currently

unlikely scenario.

This last week has seen the launch of all manifestos and

whilst our businesses are currently more focused on

work in England and Wales, the SNP manifesto is quite

important. They may have a significant role to play in

UK wide policy and certainly Nicola Sturgeon and the

SNP believe they can bring progressive politics to Great

Britain.

Here we show the housing highlights of the party

manifestos. There is much to report as all parties agree

that the housing crisis is a big issue and the delivery of

housing is vital.

ConservativesStronger Leadership - A Clear Economic Plan

• Selling off highest value vacant council properties to

invest locally in more affordable housing.

• A £1bn Brownfield Fund to deliver 400,000 new

homes.

• Extend the ‘Right-to-Buy’ to 1.3m Housing

Association homes.

• 200,000 starter homes for first-time buyers under

40 at 20% discount.

• Extend Help to Buy and new Help to Buy ISAs.

Labour PartyBritain Can Be Better

• 200,000 homes built a year by 2020.

• Build a new generation of garden cities.

• Give first call to first-time buyers in areas of housing

growth.

• Use it or lose it powers to encourage developers to

build.

Liberal DemocratsOpportunity For Everyone

• An annual target of 300,000 for the number of new

homes to be built across the UK.

• At least 10 new garden cities in England, with five

of these linked by a new rail connection between

Oxford and Cambridge.

• Encourage rural local authorities to follow the

principles of garden cities in village or suburb

development as part of growth plans.

• A new government-backed Housing Investment

Bank would provide long-term capital for major new

settlements and help attract finance for major house

building projects.

• Greater use of compulsory purchase orders by

reviewing legislation.

• Increase housing supply from 5 to 15 year pipeline.

• Strengthen the Duty to Co-operate and Housing

Market Assessments.

• Prioritise brownfield development and stop

permitted development rights for converting offices

to residential.

• Create a community right to appeal.

Green PartyFor the Common Good

• Provide 500,000 social rented homes by 2020.

• Bring empty homes back into use.

• Abolish the bedroom tax.

• Cap rents, introduce longer tenancies and licence

landlords to provide greater protection to renters.

• Minimise encroachment onto greenfields.

UK Independence PartyBelieve in Britain

• Protect the Green Belt.

• Bring empty homes back into use.

• Build one million homes on brownfield sites by 2020.

• Prioritise social housing for those with local

connections to an area.

• Give local people the final say on major planning

developments in their area.

• Restrict the ‘Right-to-Buy’ and ‘Help-to-Buy’ schemes

to British nationals.

• Abolish the Mansion Tax.

Scottish National Party (SNP)Stronger For Scotland

• Back investment in an annual house building target

across the UK of 100,000 affordable homes a year.

• Support for ‘Help-to-Buy’ and shared equity

schemes.

• Abolition of the bedroom tax.

• Developers who “land bank” with granted

permissions will face confiscation.

Plaid CymruWorking For Wales

• Additional planning powers for the Welsh

Government.

• Put local need and benefit, sustainability and impact

on the Welsh language at the heart of a new planning

system.

• Commit one percent extra of UK GDP to

infrastructure investment each year.

• More sustainable infrastructure, with a particular

focus on housing, public transport, leisure and

education facilities, urban green areas and cycle

routes.

It is difficult to see what form of policy for housing

and development would emerge when parties try

to combine these pledges in a coalition. However, it

seems clear that if the Tories and UKIP work together,

the emphasis on house building will diminish, especially

on Greenfield and Green Belt sites. This unfavourable

shift for the industry looks less likely under a Labour-led

coalition.

A hung parliament may not be too unfavourable for the

industry as it may leave the current policy framework

untouched and delay any major changes to the

emphasis on growth and development in the NPPF.

The country doesn’t have long to wait for election day

but clarity in policy for planning and development may

prove elusive for some time to come.

Some further analysis of the situation will be provided

post election……

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