HOUSING 2016 AFFORDABILITY...Housing Affordability – A study for the metroolitan North East sub-region area 31. Introduction Access to affordable housing is essential for the wellbeing

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2016HOUSING AFFORDABILITYA study for the Perth metropolitan North East sub-region area

Housing Affordability – A study for the metropolitan North East sub-region area2

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................3

2. Executive Summary – North East sub-region ........................................................4

3. Defining Affordability ..................................................................................................5

3.1 Household Income Category ...................................................................................................................5

3.2 Affordability .......................................................................................................................................................5

3.3 Sub-regions .......................................................................................................................................................6

3.4 Income groups .................................................................................................................................................7

3.5 Data sources ......................................................................................................................................................7

4. Analysis of results for established housing market ...............................................8

4.1 Private Sales by Planning Region ............................................................................................................8

4.2 Private Sales by Household Income Category .................................................................................8

4.3 Private Sales by Each Household Income Category (by Planning Region) .......................9

4.4 Private Sales by Planning Region (by Household Income Category) ....................................10

4.5 Private Sales by Product Type ...................................................................................................................11

4.6 Housing Authority Sales ..............................................................................................................................13

5. Analysis of results for newly constructed housing ................................................14

5.1 Lot Sales by Region ........................................................................................................................................14

5.2 Lot Sales by Household Income Category .........................................................................................15

5.3 Lot Sales by Household Income Category (by Region) ................................................................15

6. North East sub-region, Suburb analysis ..................................................................16

6.1 Very low income ..........................................................................................................................................16

6.2 Low income .....................................................................................................................................................16

6.3 Moderate (Lower) Income .......................................................................................................................17

6.4 Moderate (Upper) Income ........................................................................................................................18

6.5 High income ...................................................................................................................................................19

7. Concluding Remarks ...................................................................................................19

Contents

3Housing Affordability – A study for the metropolitan North East sub-region area

1. IntroductionAccess to affordable housing is essential for the wellbeing of individuals, families and communities. Very low to moderate income earners1 are most at risk of not being able to access affordable housing and own their own home. In this study, the Housing Authority shares its own internal research to shed a more detailed light on what is affordable to purchase in Perth’s housing market. This includes where stock is located, its characteristics and who can afford it. It seeks to answer key questions about the type of affordable housing within an area – is it affordable, is it appropriate and is it available?

The information in this report is being used by the Housing Authority to inform the delivery of its commitments under the State Affordable Housing Strategy 2010-2020 which has now been revised upwards to deliver 30,000 affordable housing opportunities by 20202. The current focus on the Affordable Housing Strategy is consistent with the Housing Authority’s role in providing housing to meet the needs of the community and support the economic development of Western Australia through the sale of land, the building and sale of houses, the provision of housing finance, the supply of rental properties and continuing partnerships with the community and private sectors.

This publication complements the Housing Affordability report for the Perth Metropolitan Area. It focuses on the North East sub-region which encompasses the Perth Planning Regions of Kalamunda, Mundaring and Swan.

1 See Section 3.1 for household income definitions.

2 Affordable Housing Strategy 2010-2020: Aiming Higher


2. Executive Summary – North East sub-regionThis report analyses house, unit and land sales in the North East sub-region of Perth from 2013 to 2015, looking at both established house and unit sales, and land sales for the construction of new houses. It looks at both private market sales and sales undertaken by the Housing Authority and its development partners. This report analyses sales by household income groups, and by Perth planning regions, as defined in Section 3.

Private housing sales in the North East sub-region are heavily skewed towards those that are affordable only to higher income households. Of the 11,261 private sales in the North East sub-region, almost half of all sales were only affordable to those on high incomes, while only 4% of sales in the sub-region were affordable to low income households.

All planning areas had only a very small proportion of sales (less than 1%) affordable to those on very low incomes. Swan had the highest proportion of sales affordable to those on low incomes at around 6%. Sales in both Kalamunda and Mundaring were dominated by sales affordable only to those on high incomes at 60% and 74% of sales respectively.

The North East housing market is heavily weighted towards larger properties with over 90% of properties sold having three or more bedrooms. The proportion of two bedroom sales ranged from 6% in Kalamunda to 14% in Mundaring.

The Housing Authority plays a role in increasing the amount of affordable housing stock available for sale which was reflected in its dwelling sales. Over 70% of sales by the Housing Authority and its development partners in the North East sub-region were affordable to low or moderate (lower) income households.

As with the established market, sales of lots are skewed towards those affordable to higher income groups. Over 50% of private lot sales were only affordable to high income earners, while less than 5% were affordable to low income earners. For lots sold by the Housing Authority, nearly 80% were affordable for low to moderate income households.


3. Defining Affordability

3.1 Household Income CategoryIn this report, income categories are defined using proportions of the Perth median household income. This is the standard definition used by many affordable housing providers. For the Perth Metropolitan area, the definitions for December quarter 2015 are calculated below.3

Very low income (<50% of median) under $42,850

Low income (50-80% of median) $42,851–$68,560

Moderate income – lower (80-100% of median) $68,561–$85,700

Moderate income – upper (100-120% of median) $85,701–$102,840

High income (over 120% of median) Over $102,841

Estimated median income for Greater Perth $85,700

3.2 AffordabilityFor the purposes of this study, calculations have been undertaken to estimate an affordable established dwelling and land price for the Perth Metropolitan Area. These estimates are based on a number of assumptions which are outlined below. One of the main assumptions is the 30% rule. That is, for households to avoid housing stress, their mortgage repayments should not exceed 30% of their gross household income. Indicative affordability for the December quarter 2015 is shown below.4

Household Income Category

Gross Household

Income

Affordable loan amount Deposit Affordable

house price

Very low income $42,850 $187,000 $20,8005 $207,800

Low income $68,560 $299,200 $33,200 $332,400

Moderate income – lower $85,700 $374,000 $41,600 $415,600

Moderate income – upper $102,840 $448,800 $49,900 $498,700

High income Over $102,840 Over $448,800 Over $49,900 Over $498,700

Assumptions5 Interest rate: 5.58% (RBA, average standard variable rate, December quarter 2015) Deposit: 10% Term of loan: 30 years Percentage of income: 30%

3 Household income data is based on the median Perth income from the 2011 Census, adjusted using the ABS’ Wage Price Index for 2013, 2014 and 2015. For further information, see the Explanatory Notes publication.

4 These numbers are adjusted for 2013, 2014 and 2015. For further information, see the Explanatory Notes publication.

5 A deposit of this amount is likely to be difficult for a very low income household to achieve, however households may be able to access products such as Keystart low deposit home loans.


3.3 Sub-regionsThis report focuses on the North East sub-region which is shown below.


3.4 Income groupsThe 2011 Census is the most up-to-date data available on detailed income household groups within the community. Figure 1 shows the proportion of households in the Perth Metropolitan Area that fell into each of the income groups defined in Section 3.1. According to Figure 1, over 40% of households were in the very low to low income household categories at the time of the 2011 Census.

Figure 1

Perth Households by Income Category

36%

27%

16%

8%

13%

Very Low IncomeLow IncomeModerate income (lower)Moderate income (upper)High Income

3.5 Data sourcesThis report analyses property sales records for houses, units and land in the Central sub-region of the Perth Metropolitan Area from 2013-2015. The data has been extracted from the private sector product “APM PriceFinder”, which uses Landgate data, sourced through REIWA. For Housing Authority house, unit and land sales (2013-2015), admin-by-product data has been used. This is because the Housing Authority has thousands of transactions within the Landgate data, of which only a small number were actual sale transactions. For more information on data and methodology, see the accompanying publication Housing Affordability - Explanatory Notes.

Sources: PriceFinder, Housing Authority


4. Analysis of results for established housing market

4.1 Private Sales by Planning RegionThis section gives an overview of the private housing market in the North East sub-region. Figure 2 looks at the proportion of sales by each Perth Planning Region. The largest number of sales within the region were in Swan, at 61%, followed by 26% of sales in Kalamunda and 13% in Mundaring.

Figure 2

KalamundaMundaringSwan

Proportion of Sales by Perth

Planning Region

26%

13%

61%

4.2 Private Sales by Household Income CategoryThis section gives an overview of the North East sub-region, looking at affordability by household income group. Figure 3 shows the proportion of private sales affordable to each of the household income categories. The analysis shows that almost half of all sales in the North East sub-region were only affordable to households on high incomes. Only 4% of sales were affordable to low income households.

Figure 3

Very Low IncomeLow IncomeModerate (Lower) IncomeModerate (Upper) IncomeHigh Income

Proportion of Sales by Income

18%

29%

49%

0% 4%




4.3 Private Sales by Each Household Income Category (by Planning Region)

This section examines each household income category, and identifies where sales for each category were located. For each of the household income categories, the majority of the sales were in the region of Swan, which was expected given the size of the region. In the lower income categories sales were also strongly skewed towards Swan, with 73%, 86% and 81% of sales affordable to very low, low and moderate (lower) income categories respectively. This is reduced in the moderate income (upper) and high income categories, where Swan contributes 67% and 48% of sales respectively.

Figure 4


Kalamunda Mundaring Swan0


80

%

60

50

70

40

30

20

10

High Income

32

20

48

Kalamunda Mundaring Swan Kalamunda Mundaring Swan0 0

80 80

% %

60 60

50 50

70 70

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

Moderate (Lower) Income Moderate (Upper) Income

14

5

81

25

8

67

Kalamunda Mundaring Swan Kalamunda Mundaring Swan0 0

80 80

% %

60 60

50 50

70 70

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

Very Low Income Low Income

189

73

9

86

5


4.4 Private Sales by Planning Region (by Household Income Category)

This section examines private sales by each Perth Planning Region (within the North East sub-region). Of the sales in each Perth Planning Region, it looks at the proportion affordable to each household income category. All areas had a very small proportion of sales (less than 1%) affordable for those on very low incomes. Swan had the highest proportion of sales affordable to those on low incomes at around 6%. Both Kalamunda and Mundaring were dominated by sales affordable only to those on high incomes with 60% and 74% of sales (respectively) within this category.

Figure 5


Kalamunda Mundaring

0% 0%

1% 2%10% 6%

29%18%

60% 74%

Swan

0%

6%

24%

32%

38%



4.5 Private Sales by Product TypeThis section analyses private sales in the North East sub-region by product type. This is to take into account the ‘appropriateness’ aspect of housing affordability. For the purposes of this report, sales are broken into those that are two bedrooms or less – viewed as appropriate for singles, couples and small families and three bedrooms or more – viewed as appropriate for larger families and households.

Of the 11,261 sales in the North East sub-region, 91% (or 10,210 sales) were for product with three bedrooms or more. All planning regions had the vast majority of sales in the three bedrooms or more category (Figure 6).

Figure 6

0


Regional Sales by Product Type

80

90

100%

60

50

70

40

30

20

10

Kalamunda Mundaring Swan

94 86 90

10146

Two bedrooms or less Three bedrooms or more


Figure 7

0


Product Type by Region

60

50

%

40

30

20

10

Kalamunda Mundaring Swan

61

12

27

63

2017


As 61% of all sales in the North East sub-region were in Swan, this planning region dominates both the sales of two bedroom or less product and three bedroom or more product. Figure 7 shows that Swan accounted for 63% of all two bedrooms or less sales within the North East sub-region. It also accounted for 61% of all three bedroom or more sales.

This report also looks at the proportion of product sales affordable to each household income category (Figure 8). For the lower income categories, there is more available in the smaller product category. Across all income groups, there were more sales in the three bedroom or more category.

Figure 8

Very low Moderate (lwr) Moderate (upr)Low High

0


Product Type by Income

80

90

100%

60

50

70

40

30

20

10

949485

55

73

27

45

156 6



4.6 Housing Authority SalesThis report analyses sales made by the Housing Authority and its development partners separately from private sales. This is because the Housing Authority has thousands of transactions within Landgate’s data, of which only a small number are reportable sales. To ensure accuracy, the Housing Authority’s own sales data was used throughout this report. Figure 9 shows that the data for the Housing Authority sales is strongly skewed towards lower income households when compared to the private market. There were 241 Housing Authority sales of houses and units in the North East sub-region between 2013 and 2015.

Figure 9


0


Proportion of Sales by Income

80

90

100%

60

50

70

40

30

20

100

4

18

29

49

0 0

3932 29

Housing Authority Sales Private Sales

Sales undertaken by the Housing Authority and its development partners have a very different distribution than sales in the private market. The private market is dominated by sales affordable only to higher income groups, with 78% of sales solely affordable to moderate (upper) and high income households. This compares to the Housing Authority sales, where 71% of sales were affordable to low income and moderate (lower) income households.


5. Analysis of results for newly constructed housing

Consumers wishing to purchase a house have a choice between purchasing an established house or unit, or building a new home. The new home market is made up of land only or house and land package purchases. Both of these are generally reported through Landgate’s data as land purchases. In order to consider this market as part of the North East sub-region’s affordability options, this section looks at sales of land at different affordable land price points.

An affordable house and land price is calculated in Section 3. To separate the affordable land component, an expected proportion of land expenditure is derived using UDIA and ABS data6. For the very low income category, land affordability is manually set. This is because the minimum build price for a basic home in WA is estimated at around $150,000. When the affordable land price defined below is combined with the assumed price of building a dwelling, the affordablity price points (for land and build) are the same as for the established price points defined in Section 3.

Household income category Affordable land purchase category 2015

Assumed cost of building dwelling

Total house and land cost

Very Low Income Household $57,800 $150,000 $207,800

Low Income Household Up to $175,500 $156,900 $332,400

Moderate Income Household (lower) Up to $219,400 $196,200 $415,600

Moderate Income Household (upper) Up to $263,300 $235,400 $498,700

High Income Household Over $263,300 Over $235,400 Over $498,700

5.1 Lot Sales by RegionThere were 3305 lot sales in the North East region during 2013-2015. Within the North East region, lot sales were heavily weighted towards Swan, where over 80% of sales were located. Around 10% of sales were in Mundaring while 8% were in Kalamunda.

Figure 10

KalamundaMundaringSwan

Lot Sales in the North East sub-region

8%

10%

82%

6 See publication: Housing Affordability – Explanatory Notes



5.2 Lot Sales by Household Income CategoryThis section looks at lot sales, both private market and Housing Authority, showing what proportion were affordable to each household income category. Over 50% of lot sales in the private market in the North East sub-region were only affordable to high income households, with only 5% affordable to low income households. Housing Authority sales were more skewed towards the lower income groups, with 15% affordable to low incomes households. There were no lot sales affordable to very low income households.

Figure 11

Private Lot Sales Housing Authority Lot Sales


0


Proportion of Lot Sales by Income

80

90

100%

60

50

70

40

30

20

100

5

15

29

52

0

15

2835

22

5.3 Lot Sales by Household Income Category (by Region)Of the 3305 lot sales in the North East region, only 1595 were affordable to those on less than a high income. Suburbs with high numbers of sales affordable to those on less than a high income included: Aveley (507 lots sold), Ellenbrook (261), Brabham (240) and Dayton (204).


6. North East sub-region, Suburb analysis7

This section looks at each household income category, as defined in Section 3, and shows the top 10 suburbs with sales affordable to the income group. This section looks only at sales in the private market for houses and units.

6.1 Very low income Only 0.1% of North East sub-region sales were affordable to very low income households.

Less than two bedrooms

No suburbs with more than 10 sales recorded.

Three bedrooms plus

No suburbs with more than 10 sales recorded.

6.2 Low income Around 4% of North East sub-region sales were affordable to low income households.


Locality Distance from CBD

No. sales 2013-15

Median price

Median Build age

Median Bedrooms

Median building area

Median land area

Midland 17.9Km 55 305,000 1989 2 133 182

Swan View 21.3Km 36 300,750 1984 2 100 160

Lockridge 14.3Km 14 295,000 1970 2 107 111

Bellevue 21.0Km 12 297,000 1963 2 65 674

Ellenbrook 25.3Km 12 315,000 2012 2 83 150

Midvale 21.0Km 11 290,000 1989 2 192 261

Kalamunda 27.9Km 10 293,000 1977 1 54 54

Koongamia 21.8Km 10 310,000 1959 2 n.p 693

Stratton 22.3Km 10 287,500 1999 2 168 171

Midland and Swan View had a number of sales of villas and older-style cottages.

Three bedrooms plus


No. sales 2013-15

Median price

Median Build age

Median Bedrooms


Median land area

Lockridge 14.3Km 33 305,000 1972 3 276 333

Midland 17.9Km 31 315,000 1989 3 224 249

Bullsbrook 43.3Km 28 300,000 1960 3 n.p 734

Swan View 21.3Km 28 308,000 1986 3 212 323

Stratton 22.3Km 25 315,000 1993 3 98 458

Forrestfield 21.5Km 16 302,500 1981 3 290 482

Middle Swan 23.8Km 12 300,000 1973 3 n.p 747

Bellevue 21.0Km 11 310,000 1990 3 236 306

Ballajura 15.3Km 10 231,786 1989 3.5 183 660

7 Only suburbs with 10 or more sales recorded between 2013 and 2015 are included.


Lockridge had a number of sales of older-style duplexes and villas. Bullsbrook and Middle Swan had a number of sales of older-style houses or cottages on large blocks. Midland, Stratton, Swan View, Forrestfield, Bellevue and Ballajura had sales of newer-style houses and villas.

6.3 Moderate (Lower) Income Around 18% of North East sub-region sales were affordable to moderate income (lower) households.



No. sales 2013-15

Median price

Median Build age

Median Bedrooms


Median land area

Midland 17.9Km 57 356,000 2008 2 106 129

Ellenbrook 25.3Km 36 355,000 2012 2 113 192

Lockridge 14.3Km 29 370,000 1969 2 n.p 728

Koongamia 21.8Km 26 358,750 1965 2 n.p 693

Bellevue 21.0Km 14 357,500 1955 2 n.p 678

Midvale 21.0Km 13 353,000 1957 2 117 845

Forrestfield 21.5Km 12 352,500 1980 2 91 460

Kalamunda 27.9Km 11 355,000 1977 2 80 80

Swan View 21.3Km 11 347,000 1957 2 76 835

High Wycombe 19.0Km 10 385,000 1965 2 412 462

For the North East sub-region, sales of two bedrooms or less product (affordable to moderate income (lower) households) was seen in Midland (57 sales); Ellenbrook (36 sales); Lockridge (29 sales) and Koongamia (26 sales). Sales in Midland and Ellenbrook were for newer-style product (with a median build age or 2008 and 2012 respectively). For Lockridge and Koongamia, sales were for older-style product on larger blocks (with a median build age of 1969 and 1965 respectively).

Three bedrooms plus


No. sales 2013-15

Median price

Median Build age

Median Bedrooms


Median land area

Ellenbrook 25.3Km 342 387,500 2006 3 132 369

Swan View 21.3Km 161 372,000 1980 3 122 690

Midland 17.9Km 159 370,000 2006 3 207 220

Stratton 22.3Km 156 364,500 1994 3 113 507

Forrestfield 21.5Km 143 382,000 1978 3 202 700

Ballajura 15.3Km 85 380,000 1993 3 176 480

High Wycombe 19.0Km 78 387,000 1987 3 295 700

Middle Swan 23.8Km 64 367,500 1991 3 205 620

Lockridge 14.3Km 61 372,000 1982 3 114 528

Beechboro 14.4Km 54 382,500 1987 3 159 584

There were higher levels of three bedrooms or more sales within the North East sub-region (when compared to the two bedrooms or less product) for sales affordable to the moderate income (lower) category. Ellenbrook had 342 sales, followed by Swan View (161 sales); Midland (159 sales) and Stratton (156 sales). These were for newer-style houses on smaller blocks (except for Swan View which had a median build year of 1980 and a median block size of 690 square metres.


6.4 Moderate (Upper) Income Around 29% of North East sub-region sales (2013-2015) were affordable to moderate income (upper) households.



No. sales 2013-15

Median price

Median Build age

Median Bedrooms


Median land area

Midland 17.9Km 22 435,000 1946 2 112 571

Lockridge 14.3Km 19 425,000 1970 2 n.p 728

Ellenbrook 25.3Km 17 409,000 2013 2 112 114

Kalamunda 27.9Km 14 420,000 1976 2 91 162

High Wycombe 19.0Km 10 468,000 1967 2 300 875

There were very few two bedrooms or less sales in the North East region which were affordable to moderate income (upper) households. There were 22 sales in Midland which were mainly very old properties (median build age 1946) on moderate-sized blocks (median land area 571 metres square). Sales in Lockridge were for older style properties (median build age 1970) on large blocks (median land area 728 square metres). Ellenbrook had newer-style micro properties (with a median build age of 2013 and a median land area of only 114 square metres).

Three bedrooms plus


No. sales 2013-15

Median price

Median Build age

Median Bedrooms


Median land area

Ellenbrook 25.3Km 535 439,000 2006 4 157 509

Ballajura 15.3Km 355 450,000 1992 4 135 617

Forrestfield 21.5Km 341 440,000 1978 3 143 700

High Wycombe 19.0Km 289 450,000 1987 3 147 708

Beechboro 14.4Km 216 441,000 1987 3 127 709

Aveley 28.4Km 165 450,000 2011 3 157 375

Swan View 21.3Km 149 435,000 1983 3 160 716

Bennett Springs 17.8Km 74 461,501 2001 4 143 510

Caversham 15.9Km 74 455,000 2001 4 143 537

Midland 17.9Km 71 425,000 2009 3 201 259

There were larger volumes of sales in the North East sub-region for three bedrooms or more sales affordable to moderate income (upper) households (when compared to two bedrooms or less sales). There were 535 sales of newer-style houses in Ellenbrook (median build age of 2006 and median land area of 509 square metres). This was followed by 355 sales in Ballajura (median build age of 1992 and median land area of 617 square metres) and 341 sales in Forrestfield (median build year 1978 and median land area of 700 square metres).


6.5 High income Nearly 50% of North East sub-region sales were only affordable to high income households. In Gooseberry Hill, 92.8% of sales were only affordable to high income households. Other suburbs with high proportions included: Lesmurdie (88.4%); Darlington (87.7%); and Helena Valley (85.6%).

Suburb Number of sales 2013-2015

Proportion of sales only affordable to high

income households

Gooseberry Hill 180 92.8%

Lesmurdie 353 88.4%

Darlington 204 87.7%

Helena Valley 174 85.6%

7. Concluding RemarksThis report highlights the challenges for low to moderate income earners in the North East sub-region. Only 4% of sales in the sub-region were affordable to low income households, and less than 1% were affordable to very low income households. The lack of diversity in the region was also highlighted, with over 90% of sales having three or more bedrooms.

Sales undertaken by the Housing Authority and its development partners were more affordable to lower income households, and the findings of this report will help inform the Housing Authority’s future house and land sales programs.

This report complements the Housing Affordability report for the Perth Metropolitan Area, and the other Housing Affordability reports for each of the Perth sub-regions.

October 2016

Documents

HOUSING 2016 AFFORDABILITY...Housing Affordability – A study for the metroolitan North East sub-region area 31. Introduction Access to affordable housing is essential for the wellbeing