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Household wealth. What we can learn from micro data registers Gitte Frej Knudsen Søren Brodersen. Household wealth. The use of micro based registers. Explaining variables at micro level. Registers. Use. Individuals Income Social status Family type Education Working place. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Household wealthWhat we can learn
from micro data registers
Gitte Frej KnudsenSøren Brodersen
2
The use of micro based registersHousehold wealth
Individuals• Income• Social status• Family type• Education• Working place
Micro based registers inthe wealth project • Dwellings• Household cars
Other micro based registers• Debt • Financial assets
Enterprises• Activity code• Number of employees• Turnover
Explaining variables at micro level Registers Use
ResearchStatisticsAnalysis
Example:Analysis of owner occupiers’ net wealth
3
Households’ real assetsBillion DKK (current prices) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Owner occupied dwellings 2.446 2.837 3.107 3.913 4.000 3.561
Co-operative dwellings 134 152 253 228 244 208
Housing assets, total 2.580 2.989 3.361 4.141 4.244 3.769GDP 1.466 1.545 1.632 1.691 1.737 1.660
Housing assets, % of GDP 176 193 206 245 244 227Household cars 132 188
Yachts 10
Aircrafts owned by households 1
Real assets, total 4.443
Main resultsHousehold wealth
Share of households’ real assets
95,5% 4,2%
+
0,3%
5
Register: Market value for owner occupied dwellings
Household wealth
Real estate value register Real estate no.Official real estate valuation (tax value)
Building and estate registerReal estate no.Postal codeMunicipal codeRegion
MergingKey: Real estate no.
MergingKey: Real estate no.
Estate sales register Real estate no.Actual sale values
1. Geography dimension
Official valuation and geography dimensionReal estate no.Official real estate valuationPostal code, municipality, region
2. Real estate sales
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Register: Market value for owner occupied dwellings
Household wealth
Owners of real estateReal estate no.Personal ID no.Business register no.Owner share
Business registerBusiness register no.Type of ownership Owners belonging to the
household sectorReal estate no.Personal ID no.Business register no.Owner share
Filter: Persons and sole proprietorships
Official real estate valuations Real estate no.Official estate valuationsPostal code, municipality, regionActual sale values
Merging (basic register)Key: Real estate no.
3. Sector delimitation: Household sector
Owners belonging to the household sectorReal estate no.Personal ID no.Business register no.Owner share
4. Official estate valuations broken down by individuals and geography
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Estimation of actual market values for owner occupied dwellings
1. Estimation of coefficients relating actual sale values to official real estate valuations
k is a geographical area, e.g. a postal codej is an owner occupied dwelling (type j), traded in the geographical area k
2. Estimation of market value at micro level
Household wealth
J
Jkj
J
Jkj
k
1,
1,
) valuationestate real Official(
) valuessale(tcoefficien ueMarket val
Market value = Official estate value * market value coefficient
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Estimation of market values for owner occupied dwellings
Household wealth
One family houses only
Coefficients of actual sales values to official real estate values
0,80
0,90
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
2006 2007 2008 2009
West denmarkCopenhagen regionZealand
9
Market values for co-operative dwellings
Challenges• No central registration of owners• No official real estate valuation of co-operative dwellings
Assumptions for estimation of market values atmicro level• All adults at the same address own equal shares of the co-operative dwelling• The total real estate value owned by the co-operative is distributed proportionally among
dwellings according to square meters• Coefficients between actual sales values and official estate value are estimated at
regional level only
Conclusion Estimates suffer from incomplete information for ownership and actual sales values
unlike register information on owner occupied dwellings
Household wealth
10
Comparison between micro based market value and national accounts data on household real estate.
Note: Real estate of households includes dwellings and business real estate of household sector enterprises.
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Market value, buildings and landNational accounts, buildings National accounts, buildings and land
Billion DKK
Household wealth
11
Register: Market value for household cars
Households’ real assets
Vehicle register Owners: Personal ID no. Business reg. no.Vehicle key numberManufacturer Model, variant, age… other technical data
Business registerBusiness register no.Type of ownership
Owners belonging to the household sectorPersonal ID no.,Business reg. no.Vehicle key numberManufacturer Model, variant, age… other technical data
Filter: Persons and sole proprietorships
1. Sector delimitation: Household sector
2. Market value
Price register from Danish Motorcar SocietyVehicle key numberAgeMarket value
MergingKeys: Vehicle key number, age
Imputation programmeImpute market value when no match is found
Owners belonging to the household sectorPersonal ID no.,Business reg. no.Vehicle key numberManufacturer Model, variant, age… other technical data
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Register: Market value for household cars
Households’ real assets
Merged Vehicle register with market value Owner ManufacturerModel, variant, age etc.Market value
Merging Keys: Personal ID no.
Business reg. no.
Registers with explaining variables (Statistics Denmark)Geographical localisation Composition of the owner's family Family income Housing condition …other explaining variables
3. Challenges• The Price register from Danish Motorcar Society contains only cars• No prices for cars older than 20 years • 10 percent of the household cars have no match between the Price register and the
Vehicle register
4. Assumptions for estimation of market values at micro level• No market value for household vans, motor cycles, mobile homes etc.• All cars older than 20 years have a market value equal to zero.• Imputed market values for 10 percent of the household cars
5. Explaining variables
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Household wealth 2008Household wealth
(in billion DKK) Household sector
National accounts S.14 Aggregate micro data
Financial assets
Currency AF.21 30
Deposits AF.22 765 492
Securities other than shares AF.3 159 206
Quoted shares AF.511 106 122
Unquoted shares AF.512 232
Other equity AF.513 161 16
Mutual funds shares AF.52 206
Insurance - technical reserves AF.6 1.781
Other accounts receivable AF.7 61
Liabilities Securities other than shares AF.3 19 19
Loans AF.4 2.315 2.243
Other accounts payable AF.7 154
Net financial wealth 1.013 -1.426
Real assets Dwellings and other real estate 1.707* 4.244
Motor vehicles 245** 188**
Yachts and aircrafts owned by households 11
Net Wealth 2.965 3.017
* Excl. land
** Only Cars
14
Summary
• Households’ real assets estimated at micro level amounts at the end of 2009 to approximately 2.4 times GDP
• Micro registers can be used for distribution analysis (by income, gender, age, family size, occupation etc.)
• Reliable estimates of market values for owner occupied dwellings at micro and macro level
• Estimates for co-operative dwellings are less reliable but still useful
Household wealth