World Food ProgrammeSouthern Africa Regional Office

Vulnerability Analysis

Concepts, Indicators & Measurements

A VAM/Programme Training Document

March 1999Maputo/ Mozambique

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General Background and introduction

1. Content of the Session

This session covers key issues of food security and vulnerability analysis. The topics are organised as follows:

Key conceptual issues of food security and vulnerability analysis; Introductory note to Food Systems (food economies); Coping strategies, relevance and measurement; Vulnerability indicators/ measurements; Targeting the vulnerable group/ areas Needs Assessment

2. Workshop Objectives

Help participants to revisit concepts and measurement of vulnerability analysis in context of WFP/ partners’ priorities;

Identify/ discuss the relevance the food system /food economies for specific operational areas;

Describe coping strategies of population under stress conditions; Revisit key aspects of food security indicators and methods of measurement for

targeting, monitoring and evaluation; Introduce criteria for targeting beneficiaries for WFP interventions; Introduce methods and instruments for needs assessment under different conditions;

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SESSION ONE

Livelihood Security and Vulnerability: Concept and Measurement Issues

Key Questions

What are Food Security, nutritional security and livelihood security?

Why is Food Security and vulnerability analysis so important for welfare institutions?

What makes Food Security (FS) different from development interventions?

Over head - nutritional security model: Box 1 The Causes of Malnutrition

Definitions of Food Security

For the purpose of this training we will review three definitions.

1. World Bank definition of Food Security (1986).

Food Security is defined as "access by all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life". Food Insecurity is defined as " lack of access to enough food".

2. Chamber's definition of Sustainable Livelihood Security (1988).

Livelihood is defined as adequate stocks and flows of food and cash to meet basic needs. Security refers to secure ownership of, or access to, resources and income earning activities, including reserves and assets to offset risks, ease shocks and meet contingencies. Sustainable refers to the maintenance or enhancement of resource productivity on a long-term basis.

3. World Food Summit (1996) Rome

“Food security is defined as a situation in which all households have both physical and economic access to adequate food for all members, and where households are not at risk of losing such access. There are three dimensions implicit in this definition: availability, stability and access.

Adequate food availability means that, on average, sufficient food supplies should be available to meet consumption needs.

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Stability refers to minimising the probability that, in difficult years or seasons, food consumption might fall below consumption requirements. In addition, if food needs are met through exploitation of non-renewable natural resources or degradation of the environment, there is no guarantee of food security in the long-term.”

Access draws attention to the fact that, even with bountiful supplies, many people still go hungry because they do not have the resources to produce or purchase the food they need. Ultimately, food security concerns the individual or family unit, and its principal determinant is purchasing power, income adjusted for the cost of what that income can buy.

1. Sufficiency - what is "enough"?

There are various approaches to defining notional perception of "enough". These include:

Minimal level of food consumption. The basic food needed. Adequate to meet nutritional needs. Enough food for life, health and growth of the young and for productive effort.

The definitions of "enough" food should be seen in context of the following:

Unit of analysis should be defined. Resident population (households); Refugees (camp population); individuals (considering age, gender)

Malnutrition rate:

Calculate what proportion of people fall below the norm (2200 kcal per person per day), and by how much they fall below the norm?

Examples of vulnerability threshold used in Southern Africa

Mozambique: 1700 kcal/per capita (plus other unknown); Zambia: Malawi Zimbabwe Lesotho

(2). Access & Entitlement

This core concept refers to ability to acquire sufficient food through and from:

what one owns, what one produces, what one can trade, and what one inherits or are given.

The scale of food security measurement: ____________________

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Macro phenomena - national, regional issues. Micro phenomena - as a human problem. For example:

the urban poor, small or marginal farmers and rural landless; gender disaggregation;

(3). Security - Secure Access to enough food ____________________

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Illustrative Outline of Functional Classification

1. Regional Divisions – based on administrative structure;2. Ecological sub-zones including:

Urban; Rural accessible – irrigated, unirrigated; Rural inaccessible – arable, grazing; As well as subdivisions by cropping areas Agro-ecological zones

3. Economic status of sub-groups of population including:Urban - migrants;

- poorRural - settled farmers

- poor4. Demographic categories within sub-groups

Mother – child (infants)Preschool childrenSchool aged childrenAdults (male, female)

5. Deficiency pattern (chronic, seasonal, occasional)6. Nutrient deficiency (or problem)

ProteinVitamins (A, C, --)IodineIron

Source: Maxwell and Frankenberger

Source: Joy Quoted in Maxwell and Frankenberger (1992)

Security and vulnerability are key concepts.

Security builds on:

• the idea of vulnerability to entitlement failure;• focusing more clearly on risk.

Vulnerability/risk analysis consists of -

• Acute food shortages due to widespread crop failure, natural or other disasters, fluctuations in prices.

• National food supply & balance of payments.• Welfare vulnerability• Ability of household food systems to resist crises threatening to lower the

achieved level of food consumption.• Risks in employment & wages.• Risks in health & morbidity.• Risks in conflict.

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Sources of risks to household food insecurity

Sources of Entitlement

Types of RisksNatural State Markets Community Others

Productive capital (land, machinery, tools, animals, farm buildings, trees, wells, etc.

Drought, contamination (e.g. water), land degradation, fire, flooding, cyclone,

Land or other asset redistribution/ confiscation

Changes on costs of maintenance

Appropriation and loss of access to common property resources

Loss of land as a result of conflict

Non-productive capital (jewellery, dwelling, granaries, some animals, cash savings)

Pests, animal disease Compulsory procurement, villagisation, wealth tax,

Price shocks (falls in value of jewellery and livestock, rapid inflation

Breakdown if sharing mechanisms (communal grazing, communal irrigation, etc.)

Loss of assets as a result of war, theft,

Hunan capital (labour power, education, health

Disease epidemics (e.g. AIDS), morbidity, disability

Declining public health expenditure and/or introduction of user charges, restrictions on labour migration

Unemployment, falling wage rates and real wages

Forced labour, conscription, mobility restriction, destruction of schools and clinics during war

Income (crops, livestock, non-farm and non-agricultural activities

Pests, drought and other climatic events

Cessation of extension services, subsidies on inputs or price support schemes, tax increases,

Commodity price falls, food price shocks

Marketing channels disrupted by war , embargo

Claims (loans, gifts, social contracts, social security

Reduction in nutrition programmes (for example, school feeding,

Rises in interest rates, changes in borrowing capacity

Loan recall, breakdown of reciprocity

Communities disrupted / displaced by war

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supplementary feeding)

Source: Maxwell & Frankenberger 1992

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(4) Time: Secure Access to enough food at all times.

Time refers to the extent/duration of food shortfall or access referring to chronic and transitory.

Chronic Food insecurity means that a household runs a continually high risk of inability to meet food needs of household members.

Transitory food insecurity occurs when a household faces a temporary decline in the security of its entitlement and the risk of failure to meet food needs of short duration. It focuses on intra- and inter-annual variations in household food & livelihood access.

Two types of Transitory food insecurity can be identified:-

Temporary Food insecurity occurs for a limited time because of unforeseen and unpredictable circumstances.

Cyclical or seasonal food insecurity occurs when there is a regular pattern in the periodicity of inadequate access to food.

In summary, one should note the following basic issues of food security

(1) Distinction between individual person and household - facing different risks of food security & follow different food security strategies.

(2) Food Security is a necessary but not sufficient conditions for adequate nutrition, the other condition being CARE and HEALTH - both of them inter-linked.

(3) It is misleading to treat Food Security as a fundamental need, independently of wider livelihood considerations: people may go hungry to preserve assets or meet other objectives.

(4) Sensitivity, resilience & sustainability of livelihood systems are crucial. Every intervention should support the perception of vulnerable livelihood systems.

(5) People's own perception of vulnerabilities and risks predominate in Food Security strategies.

Issues ImplicationsProgramming Analysis (VAM)

12345

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SESSION 2: FOOD SYSTEMS / ECONOMY ANALYSIS

THIS SESSION DISCUSSES:

There are districts in which the position of the rural population is that of a man standing permanently up to the neck in water, so that a ripple is sufficient to drawn him. Tawney (quoted in Scott 1976: 1)

THE SYSTEMS APPROACH OF FOOD

Food must be linked with production, processing, storage, distribution and consumption, and as such can be viewed as a system (combining demand and supply equation), that explicitly links people in the analysis.

The supply side of household food security includes their access to productive resources that ensure production of food crops while the demand side of household food security consists of ability to generate cash income through sale of labour, livestock, cash crops and others, and food system combines them together.

There are four principal components of the household food system:

the household itself and its productive resources (using principally its own labour and land),

income earning component,

market exchange component, and

Institutional co-operation to mobilise social network and resources.

Figure 1.1 FOOD SYSTEMS/ FOOD ECONOMY

COMPONENT 1: household itself as a producing & consuming unit.

land, labour (both for farm production and off-farm income opportunities),household valuables,

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ownership of livestock that generates cash income as well as providing draught power for crop production, andcrop yields and animal products to generate cash income or stored or processed for consumption

COMPONENT 2: cash income earning opportunities:

Off-farm employment

cash-for-work, trading, handicrafts, farm labour, casual work, and other part time employment

Farm income Transfer income

COMPONENT 3: the exchange through markets

Product markets:

sale of livestock and livestock products or sale of crop

Factor market:

purchase of inputpurchase of capital goodsinvestment

COMPONENT 4: institutions that mediate flows of resources between households.

household themselves where decision about resource mobilisation and allocation is made involving a range of actions.

other households and community institutions (mobilisation of social network and resources), involving mutual help, resource sharing, food gifts.

the state providing famine relief, cash-for-work, food imports and buffer stock in strengthening food system.

the market is an institution where traders, consumers and the state take a part and range of exchanges takes place mediated through price.

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The components in the food system are linked by a system of flows of resources, food, cash income and asset position to meet household consumption and other need.

MAIN FEATURES OF FOOD SYSTEMS IN SUBSISTENCE ECONOMIES.

At a community and larger scale of analysis:

It depends principally on one type of entitlement, (agricultural production). Failure of production cannot be adequately compensated /supplemented by other

entitlements. It does not have an integrated and sufficiently functioning marketing system There is no institutional means of employment outside the agricultural sector. At times of production failure there is often no food at all to buy in many places.

Where it does exist, it is sold at a very high price indeed. Characterised by:

Increased vulnerability to environmental degradation, Increased vulnerability to climatic variation; Low technological inputs; Vulnerability to food insecurity

It relies on household labour with little or no hiring in or out of labour; production is aimed at the self-provisioning of the household; there are low capital and technological inputs and a high labour input; low investment; production is highly dependent on forces of nature, and low labour and (often land) productivity.

At household scale of analysis

In subsistence agrarian economy survival is rooted in a complex combination of production activities and social exchange of agrarian societies.

Typical responses to food shortages are * inter-family insurance, * extended kin group reciprocity, * gift, * exchange (asset disposal) * community mutual support, * elite redistribution to the poor, * solidarity and risk sharing, * crop diversification, * migration,* Loans* promising labour

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SESSION 3: COPING STRATEGIES

Why is it that we are interested to understand coping strategies?

It can guide the design and implementation of interventions to increase household food security so as to compliment and reinforce local livelihood systems

The types of coping strategies employed by households not only indicate household vulnerability to food shortage, but also correspond to different types of government and donor responses,

To detect degrees of vulnerability based upon community/individual behaviour;

Mitigative interventions are those that:

Abate the impacts of the current emergency while reducing vulnerability to future emergencies;

Target the preservation of productive assets; Reinforce and build upon existing patterns of coping; Are implemented before divestment of productive asset begins;

Coping Strategies (Major categories)

(1) Risk Minimisation

Diversification of income Choice of crops that fits and perform better in an agro-ecology Vertical adjustment - planting at different elevation Horizontal /spatial/ adjustment - eg. inter-cropping Temporal adjustment - staggering planting time (eg. replanting, late planting,

early planting) Extending farming to marginal lands Transition to different farming system (eg. pastoral to agro-pastoral or cereal)

2) Loss Management (Responses to lower then expected production)

Non-farm income Sale of asset Management of stocks & reserves (rationalisation) Seasonal migration; Promising labour (getting assistance in exchange of labour work on someone’s

farm) Reciprocal obligation (Food sharing, etc.) Charcoal/fire wood selling Reduced consumption Wild food consumption Borrowing Mortgaging resource

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Splitting livestock Food aid Crime

(3) Crisis Management

Selling productive asset (ox, cow) Dispersion Destitution

Card will be prepared of a situation that necessitates coping response

Negative /+ coping strategies (implications for programming and moral values)

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SESSION 4: FOOD SECURITY INDICATORS

GENERALIZED LISTS OF HFS INDICATORS

I. SOCIO-ECONOMIC (BASELINE) INDICATORS

Land ownership Farming systems Regional conflict Resource distribution (landless households) Income/employment sources (non-farm, off-farm) Family size (rate of population increase) Natural resource endowment (land degradation) Livestock ownership Subsistence ratio (extent of farm production & market participation) Access to social services (education, health, extension, water, road, etc) Farming systems Market facilities Risk factors

II. FOOD SUPPLY (PROCESS) INDICATORS

Meteorological (rainfall) Pasture availability Water availability Agricultural crop production Food balance sheet Input supply Plant pest and disease Market prices Risk factors

III. FOOD ACCESS INDICATORS

Risk minimisation Diversification Landuse practices Loss management strategies (dietary adjustment) Access to loans / credit Sale of livestock Sale of productive asset Seasonal migration Distress migration Household budget & consumption Nutritional status

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Indicators also help us identify different risks and degrees of vulnerability.

Baseline vulnerability - underlying factors that influence exposure to food insecurity and households predisposition to the consequences.

Current vulnerability - composite of past and present events. Future vulnerability - long-term food insecurity.

TIME DIMENSION OF FOOD SECURITY INDICATORS

1. Leading (Early) Indicators

This type of indicators provides signs of impending problem and may call for a detailed situation analysis to determine the extent of the problem, causes and need for monitoring. These are changes in conditions and responses prior to the onset of decreased food access.

These are:

Crop failure due to:-

Inadequate rainfall Poor access to seed & other inputs Pest damage

Sudden deterioration of range lands conditions or conditions of livestock.

Unusual migration / movements; Unusual number of animal deaths; Large numbers of young female animals being offered for

sale; Decline in water and pasture availability

Significant deterioration in local economic conditions.

Increases in price of grain; Unseasonable disappearance of essential foodstuff; Increase in unemployment among labourers & artisans; Unusual low levels of household food stock

Significant accumulation of livestock by some households due to depressed prices caused by oversupply.

2. Concurrent (Stress) Indicators

This occurs simultaneously with decrease access to food. These indicators are primarily access/ entitlement related. Once the nature & extent of the problems have been confirmed, interventions can be introduced that can focus on the causes or mitigate the effects. Examples:

Larger than normal able-bodied family members in search for food or ____________________

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work; Appearance in the market of unusual amounts of personal & capital goods

such as jewellery, farm implements, livestock (draught animals); Unusual increase in land sale, rent, mortgage; Increase in the amount of people seeking credit; Increased dependence on wildfood; Reduction in the number of meals; Increased reliance on inter-household exchanges

3. Trailing (Late) Indicators

These occur after food access declined. They reflect the extent to which the well-being of particular households and communities have been affected. Examples:

Malnutrition Morbidity & mortality Land degradation Land sale, rent Consumption of seed stock Permanent out migration (signs that household failed to cope with food

crises).

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HOUSEHOLD FOOD SCURITY INDICATORS, BASED ON DIFFERENT PURPOSES

MAJOR TYPES (EXAMPLES) OF INDICATORS

DIFFERENT USES OF INDICATORS

EARLY WARNING FUNCTIONS (VAM) PROGRAMME/PROJECTS (Project)

BASELINE INDICATORS- LAND TENURE, HOLDING SIZE- LIVESTOCK OWNERSHIP- INCOME EARNING OPPORTUNITIES- ENVIRONMENTAL STATUS- POLITICAL STABILITY

EXPLAIN THE UNDERLYING SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS & VULNERABILITIES.

... BASELINE INDICATORS .....

DESCRIBES PRE-PROJECT SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC STATUS.

.... BENCH MARK INDICATORS ....

PROCESS INDICATORS

-CROP PRODUCTION- LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION- RAINFALL, PEST INFESTATION- INPUT SUPPLIES /CONSUMPTION- ECONOMIC STATUS

DEFINES CURRENT RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES.

... LEADING (EARLY) INDICATORS .....

... CONCURRENT (STRESS) INDICATORS .....

DEFINES PROJECT /PROGRAMME/ ACTIVITIES (PHYSICAL TARGETS AND PROCESSES REQUIRED TO ACHIEVE IT).

... PROCESS INDICATORS ....

OUTCOME INDICATORS- CROP PRODUCTION (FAILURE, SUCCESS)- LIVESTOCK (PRODUCTION, MORTALITY)- NUTRITIONAL STATUS (DETERIORATION)- HUMAN HEALTH (MORTALITY)- MIGRATION- POLITICAL (STABILITY, RISK)

IDENTIFIES EXTENT OF RISK, IMPACT OF AN EMERGENCY CONDITION

... CONCURRENT (STRESS) INDICATORS .....

.... TRAILING (LATE) INDICATORS ....

MEASURES PHYSICAL OUTPUTS AND ACHIEVEMENTS AT A GIVEN PROJECT PHASE.

.... PROGRESS INDICATORS ...

PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

- CHANGES IN ACCESS TO RESOURCES- CHANGES IN RESOURCE OWNERSHIP- LEVEL OF RISK /VULNERABILITY- IMPROVEMENT IN PRODUCTION, INCOME, EMPLOYMENT, LIVELIHOOD SECURITY, ETC.

DEFINES BEHAVIOUR OF AN ECONOMY

... BASELINE INDICATORS ....

DEFINES & MEASURES WHAT GAINS MADE AS A RESULT OF THE PROJECT INTERVENTIONS.

..... IMPACT INDICATORS ....

SOURCE: DIRIBA, 1991

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Session 5 Targeting

Key principles

Definition

Procedures and steps

Targeting is a means by which vulnerable groups of people who are most in need of food are identified. Through targeting the reasons for these groups’ vulnerability is also better understood.

As a result of targeting food assistance reaches the people most in need of food. Determining which individuals, households, or communities are most in need is discussed below.

Using all the information available through targeting, food assistance can be arranged in such a way as to address the cause of food insecurity of targeted groups.

The targeting process involves collecting information that can be used to understand food insecurity in an area. The area could be a single community, regions within a country, or an entire country. The exercise is typically based upon an overall vulnerability analysis focused at the district or national level and a more specific needs assessment at the community level.

The Targeting Process: Vulnerability Analysis

Vulnerability analysis looks at the probability that people will be or are exposed to food security risks such as drought, conflict, extreme price fluctuations, or others. It looks further to see if peoples’ capacity to cope with these risks is adequate. Where and when risk is

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Profiles of vulnerability and capacities of people and their resources in order to identify extent, magnitude, intensity and duration of risks

Choice of targeting level(Geographic, community, social /economic group)

Decision Criteria for targeting(Administrative, community, indicators)

Choice of intervention options20

greatest can be seen from the analysis, thus helping to prepare, reduce and/or plan for food insecurity.Vulnerability analysis relies on many types of relevant data, coming from a variety of relevant sources. For example,

Published statistical bulletins, National/ International statistics; Food security profiles – up to district levels and possibly at community level; VAM within WFP provides data from primary and secondary sources that are

systematically available, comparable and presents those data in maps for better planning and decision instrument;

Vulnerability Analysis groups, consisting of relevant ministries, NGOs, UN agencies, early warning systems and government statistics;

Variables for a better understanding of targeting procedures:

Time series and macro-economic profiles of the national economy; Food production and consumption patterns; Income available through wages; Coping strategies and availability of social supports networks; Functions of markets regional/local distribution and availability of food; Gender roles; Infra-structure; Magnitude, duration and length (time) of insecurity; Environmental factors.

On the basis of the profile, SCALE of targeting become apparent. They could be based on:

geographic area/ regional --- administrative zone, urban, rural, ecological -- climatic conditions and accessibility, demographic aspects --- individual/ community, male, female, pregnant,

lactating, pre-school children, elderly, social or economic groupings --- occupation, level of income, formal or

informal sector, size of land holding, types of crops grown, migrant labourer, female-headed households.

On the basis of above disaggregation and analysis, it is possible understand the cause of food insecurity and therefore indicate the nature of targeting. For example:

If drought in a specific area is causing food insecurity, the parameter is geographic area targeting.

If the vulnerability is due to squandering of income by male breadwinners, the parameter is gender based;

If vulnerability is due to a combination of poverty and extremely large household size the parameter is socio-economic;

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The Needs Analysis: A means to reaching poor individual/ group?

Once a broad understanding of vulnerability is established, a more micro-level analysis may be undertaken at the community level. This is needs analysis. Participation of households and community – particularly women – in the needs analysis is critical for the gathering of accurate information. The WFP has developed needs assessment checklists for emergency and development conditions.

Reaching the people most in need

Ultimately, once vulnerable areas and targeting parameters are identified, methods must be used using this information to identify the specific people most in need.

Methods of selection designed to help reach the targeted area include community identification and administrative methods.

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TABLE 1. SUMMARY OF TARGETING METHODS1

DEFINITION ADVANTAGES(BENEFIT ELEMENTS)

DISADVANTAGES(COST ELEMENTS)

RELEVANT LEVELS RELEVANT SELECTION FACTORS

EXAMPLES

ADMINISTRATIVE

Beneficiaries selected by outsiders using objective, standardise, observable indicators.

when successful, can be fair and verifiable, and criteria can be standardised across large populations/ areas;

risk of bias, corruption, favouritism, etc. in beneficiary selection - requires monitoring/auditing;

high cost of administration, data collection and analysis (especially when used at household level and with socio-economic indicators);

Not effective at excluding non-target group members (minimising inclusion error)

when administrative and information systems are weak, can be difficult to standardise or to verify indicators;

combining/weighting indicators to reflect vulnerability or need can be technically difficult.

all levels:

AREA targeting

socio-economic or demographic GROUPS

HOUSEHOLD or INDIVIDUAL

all selection factors:

socio-economic demographic

factors production factors meteorology market conditions nutritional

measures assets/income etc.

area targeting of relief or regular food aid based on measurements of production, climate factors, economic conditions, etc.

household or individual selection based on measurement of nutritional status, assets, etc.

COMMUNITY

Beneficiaries selected by insiders/potential gainers, i.e. community members and representatives

can use more subjective complex selection criteria

avoids cost and difficulty of collecting and analysing objective data;

can be very effective at excluding non-target group members (minimising inclusion error)

community has deeper understanding of interacting causes of need/vulnerability;

risk of bias, etc., powerful groups benefiting most;

high inputs of time, training, monitoring, etc. needed to develop community institutions, and to ensure fairness;

difficult to standardise or compare targeting

only with communities:

HOUSEHOLD or INDIVIDUAL

community perception of need or vulnerability; assets/incomedemographic factors

community selection or prioritisation of households, based on a combination of indicators, prior knowledge and judgement

How the two methods can be combined?

1 In this table, self-targeting is not indicated as an appropriate targeting method in FASE activities. While the use of food as wage or incentive may have the result of attracting persons within the targeted group, it is not considered appropriate to adjust or manipulate the size or quality of a FASE food basket with the object of attracting persons with the target group.

SESSION 6: Needs Assessment

Needs assessment can be undertaken for various reasons and under different circumstances. Depending on the purpose, a needs assessment can be conducted from one day to several weeks, from detailed inquiry to a rapid feel of a situation. Here we are talking about some of them in which an officer is asked to do needs assessment.

Three key contexts should be considered before actually undertaking needs assessment and beneficiary estimations.

The first context is reviewing and documenting secondary data including baseline information about a district or any smaller/bigger administrative. The information should focus on agricultural activities including cultivated area for the season, seeds and fertilizer distribution for the season, numbers of farmers cultivating lands during the season, the notion of basic characteristics of household economy and population data for areas to be covered by the assessment.

The second context of needs and beneficiary estimation is the synthesis of secondary and primary data for seasonal performance assessment of the economy. These include rainfall data, market data, documentation of results of regular food and livelihood security monitoring system such as incidences of human and livestock disease, previous months(s) moisture distribution, and market supply and price information.

The third context is methodological, logistical and institutional preparation for the actual assessment of seasonal performance of the economy differentiated by the nature of household economy. The assessment should determine a geographic area to be assessed. Geographic focus of the assessment aims at identifying performance of the economy at the smallest administrative unit, for example, districts or sub-districts.

The assessment should be able to use combination of methods to evaluate the performance of production in a particular area:

i. Review relevant documents for each of the assessment areas before the assessment is actually undertaken. These include review of pre-planting assessment reports, mid-season assessment reports, monthly and quarterly reports (where available), previous years’ assessment reports, rainfall and market data. The reviews provide the necessary background about areas to be assessed.

ii. Group orientation about methodology of assessment, group composition and division of responsibilities among the team members. Accessible and inaccessible areas have to be identified through

discussion with concerned governmental agencies, NGOs and other relevant agencies.

iii. During the actual field assessment, the team observes extensive areas and inspects sample fields, stratified by agro-ecological zones and types of household economy. The assessment team, based on the sample fields, estimates productivity of crops.

iv. Group and individual interviews and discussions with farmers should be carried out about their assessment of the performance of crops during the current production season and record their estimates for comparison with the team’s estimate.

The above three steps would lead to food needs estimation of an area by evaluating seasonal performance and identifying production shortfalls at given geographic area. Three types of performances are describable: above average performance, average and below average performance. The below average performance is further divided into moderate and significant production shortfalls as will be expanded upon below.

v. Discussions with experts of the MOA at the field should be held about the production performance of the current production season.

vi. The team should discuss and review the overall performance of current production in terms of the amount and distribution of rainfall, input supply, pest and disease infestation and farm management practices in the area.

vii. Finally, the production estimates of farmers, MOA field staff and the assessment team should be reviewed. In case of significant variations of estimates the team has to reconcile these variances and establish a common working estimate.

Performance Assessment Procedures & Tools

Baseline Data Basic Seasonal Data Methods

Household economy Area cultivated Group orientation

Time series production data Input utilization Task allocation

Farming Systems + income Rainfall data Time & Resources

Population data Farm management Geographic Coverage

Seasonal Assessment

Key Food Crops Cash Crops Root crops Livestock Incomevariables

Needs Assessment

Productivity, production, percapita estimates

Identify deviation from accepted norms, areas and population affected

Calculate total needs based on duration of needs & population affected

3. Needs EstimationNeeds estimation is the direct outcomes of the steps and procedures outlined above. Furthermore, many steps are involved to arrive at calculated food needs of an area.

1. The season’s performance of the local economy is determined in terms of crop productivity per unit area (composite of several factors affecting productivity). This consists of estimates of the assessment team, farmers’ own estimation of productivity, other sources of productivity estimate such as MOA and EWS. The assessment report should provide details of current season production in terms of a brief description of the household economy, areas cultivated by crops, yield estimation by crop type, total production, comparison of the current season production with long-term average production, cash crops performance, condition of livestock and market behaviour.

2. Estimated season’s productivity should be compared with long-term average productivity. This allows the team to provide information whether or not the season’s productivity is above or below long-term average productivity for the area. This stage represents the basis for determining whether the production is below average, above average or similar to the previous season’s production.

3. By using recorded data on area cultivated and the team’s estimated productivity for each crop, total production for an area is calculated. Through this procedure areas affected by production shortfall (below average), maintained average production (normal) and excelled previous years’ average productivity (above average) are recorded separately. This allows, in the final analysis, to identify areas affected by production shortfall and overall extent of production shortfalls.

Data from the various sources including the team’s productivity estimates are put into a worksheet to obtain the following results.

Total Production (District) = (area for each crop * individual crop productivity).

The worksheet may have as many rows as the number of crops assessed and as many columns required as the number of variables for quality control such as crop type, cultivated area, estimated productivity and season’s total production. The following table shows some example of the type of worksheet to calculate food needs:

An example of a Worksheet for Data Recording and Performance ComparisonName of District -----------------------Type of Household Economy -------------------------------------

Crop Type

Area

Productivity Total production

Long-term

Current

Current Comparison with long-term average

A B C D E FCrop 1

B1*D1 E1/(C1*B1)*100

Crop 2

B2*D2 E1/(C2*B2)*100

Crop 3

B3*D3 E1/(C3*B3)*100

Crop ...

B..*D.. E1/(C..*B..)*100

Total (B1..B..) --- -- (E1..E...) (E1..E...)/(F1..F..)*100

4. From the worksheet the season’s production performance is determined as compared to long-term production (see column F in the above Table).

5. The extent to which food crops, cash crops, root crops, livestock and other types of income sources contribute to household economy is taken into consideration. This stage is often compromised by lack of data on the relative contributions of the different sources of livelihood systems.

6. Major constraints to production performance for the area is listed as they occur in a specific location and with their relative significance.

7. Finally, an area’s total production output is assessed in terms of meeting consumption for the population, compulsory seeds retention and other livelihood requirements. Any shortfall is calculated and hence needs is defined with further procedures discussed in the following sections.

4. Beneficiary and Needs EstimationBeneficiary estimation is the more challenging in the whole process. Population figures for Districts and Provinces are often obtained from different sources. The different sources provide different population figures. For example, population figures obtained from Administration are not the same as that of MOA or relief agencies. Population estimates have always been controversial especially in countries where there is no recent census.

Briefly, beneficiary estimation has been approached from six important perspectives.

First, negotiating on a reasonable population estimate of an area (district) from different sources. As stated earlier, estimated population has been one of the controversial issues in needs assessment. There has not been an effective mechanism to verify population. The assessment team should obtain an agreed upon population figure for all districts and possibly smaller administrative area.

Second, determine a production shortfall for each district often expressed in grain per capita or percentage shortfall from average production derived from the procedures explained above.

Third, calculate the extent of self-provisioning from crop production for each district. The calculation should take into account the extent to which the estimated production output for the season for a particular area could meet consumption needs of population. This aspect of self-provisioning from farm production is calculated based on current minimum relief ration rates adopted for each country (Ethiopia, Sudan, Mozambique 15 kg per person per month).

Fourth, along with crop performance assessment, the team should consider other potential sources of income and food (often this is a judgment call based on description of household economy and knowledge of the area). Note that very few countries have baseline data describing household economy and the relative contributions of different sources of livelihoods. In absence of baseline data human judgment is applied, and the judgment would require estimating the relative importance and contribution of the different potential sources of livelihoods (e.g., roles of livestock, cash crops, root crops, trade potential, traditional coping mechanism, etc.).

Fifth, calculate an overall shortfall of food needs after deducting self-provisioning from total crop production, and other sources of livelihoods. To this we often add the compulsory retention for seeds.

Finally, a district’s total food needs are aggregated from the above considerations as follows:

Total food needs = (estimates of affected population for each district * No. of months food assistance is required * monthly ration rate)

Note also the necessity to determine food basket for the identified needs (e.g. cereals, pulses, vegetable oil, fortified food, etc.).

Summary:

1. Determine production performance for each district and group them into one of the performance levels -- above long-term average (good), average (satisfactory), and below long-term average (poor).

2. List out districts with similar production performance. Undertake a further analysis of shortfalls in districts where poor production performance is recorded.

3. Aggregate overall production performance at provincial levels (good or satisfactory or poor). Also, calculate the overall production for the season and compare it with long-term average production.

4. Determine a threshold for humanitarian intervention (remember not all production shortfalls actually represent emergency). The threshold to considering emergency food assistance is determined as follows based on the author’s experience (mainly for crop-dependent population).

Production shortfall

Duration of intervention

< 25% None,25- 40% (marginal) None, with a close follow up 41-75% (significant) 3 to 6 months assistance76-85% (very significant) 6 to 9 months assistance

>85% (Failure) 9 to 12 months assistance

5. Key Observations and Summary

Many institutions have attempted to improve needs assessment, beneficiary identification and actual needs estimation. While there is a consensus about the necessity to do needs assessment, there is very little agreed upon practical guide to do them. Different agencies undertake needs assessment at different geographic level and with different purpose in mind. The following are some examples:

1. Many agencies have developed a satisfactory method of identifying geographic areas vulnerable to transitory and chronic food insecurity, for example at national and provincial level. Although improvements can still be made to systems of assessment, the prevailing practice is not adequate to inform programme decision and interventions at the smallest geographic area (e.g. district).

2. A rigorous method for identifying and selecting households vulnerable to transitory food insecurity in a particular area is inadequate. While research methods and limited case studies exist to help define resource-based thresholds to food insecurity, its practical application, at least in the near future, appears to be costly both in time and resources. Nonetheless, resource-based studies can enhance our understanding of the relationships between resources and vulnerability.

3. Practically, the possibilities for identifying and targeting vulnerable households in a particular area remain with community members in the area. With good relationships and understanding, and agreed upon selection criteria of vulnerable groups, it is possible to identify and target vulnerable households with community-based organisations. Although community-based targeting of vulnerable groups is not an easy task to accomplish, at least in the initial phases, efforts should be put on nurturing community organisations.

4. The lack of differentiation between transitory and chronic food

insecurity often confuses emergency food aid determination. It is an established fact that chronic food insecurity predominates many districts of rural Africa. These distinctions between chronic and transitory food insecurity should be clarified to improve decision-making processes at all levels.

5. A threshold for transitory food insecurity (based on the experience of this author) is mainly defined when crop production deviates by more than 40% of the long-term average production in a crop-major household economy. In other types of household economies, such as agro-pastoral and cash crop-major economies, different thresholds for transitory food insecurity should be defined.

6. It should be recognised that the different types of household economies do not exist in their pure form. Various sources of resources and income are combined to provide livelihood support systems. Lack of baseline data, in most rural districts, limits our understanding about the contributions of the different sources of livelihood support systems. Within the existing framework, contributions of food crops, root and cash crops, livestock, and other sources of income should be considered carefully in annual needs assessment. Also, the roles and contributions of communities’ traditional coping mechanisms should be taken into account and sufficiently understood in calculating household self-provisioning.

7. Human and organizational contexts of needs assessments should be considered as an important first step. Needs assessment and beneficiary estimation are not exact sciences; hence the results of needs assessments are a subject of debate. Land Cruisers conduct often assessments for areas that are accessible and passable. In some circumstances, members of an assessment team exhibit different notion of food aid -- some are inclined to producing needs, and others are inclined towards underestimating needs. Further to this, local authorities also attempt to influence outcomes of an assessment team mainly on political considerations than technical justifications. Additionally, the lack of coherent and systematic methods of assessments lends itself to the many abuses of needs assessments. The problem cannot be remedied by advanced computer modeling; it can be improved by continued efforts in developing human capacity and developing rigorous methods of assessment.

8. Lack of reliable population estimates has been the major limitation to reasonable outcomes of needs assessments. It should be recognized as a matter of fact that the lack of accurate population data, further complicated by inadequate capacity for selecting vulnerable groups, undermines the final outcomes of needs assessment.

Annex I: Short version of Needs Assessment CHECK LIST

DIET: What foods do you typically eat? This yearmaize/ Milho less same moreBeans less same moreSorghum/ Mapira less same moreMillet/ mexoeira less same moreGround nuts less same morerice less same moreCassava less same moreSweet potato less same morefish less same moremeat and poultrybought vegetable oil less same moreother (specify) _________ less same more

FOOD SOURCE:/ RESERVE: What are the sources of this food? This yearown production less same morecash purchase / exchange less same moreRoot crops (Cassava/ potato) less same moregifts / social support (family, community) less same morefood aid less same morewild food collection (hunting, gathering) less same moreother (specify) ____ less same moresale of agricultural or horticultural products less same moresale of livestock and livestock products less same moresale of non-farm production (firewood, carpets, pottery, etc.)

less same more

wage labour less same morecash remittances from relatives living outside less same moreother (specify) _____ less same more

SHOCKS: What events disrupt your ability to get food This yearRain failure none mild severePasture failure none mild severeCrop failure none mild severeIncreased travel time to fetch water none mild severeLivestock failure none mild severeno food for purchase in market / market prices too high none mild severelack of opportunities for wage labour none mild severeunable to sell livestock, crops, fruit, etc at market none mild severeloss of remittances from family members abroad none mild severedecreased social support from community none mild severeMajor diseases none mild severeObserved malnutrition none mild severeother (specify) _____ none mild severe

RESPONSE: What measures can you take to respond to these shocks? This yearconsume less food not likely likely not optionConsume alternate foods (what? _____________________) not likely likely not optionincrease wage labour (local) not likely likely not optionincrease wage labour outside (temporary migration) not likely likely not optionhigher than normal draw on savings and stocks (extra livestock sales)

not likely likely not option

sell/consume productive assets (seed, ploughs, work animals)

not likely likely not option

increase debt obligations not likely likely not optionincrease remittances from relatives living outside not likely likely not optionincrease social support from community not likely likely not optionincrease wild food collection not likely likely not optionmigration (long term or permanent) not likely likely not optionother (specify):____________________

not likely likely not option

Annex II SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT CHECK LIST

This presentation outlines key variables to undertake a quick assessment of situation in an emergency, rehabilitation and development endeavour. Purposes of conducting rapid food

security assessments vary enormously, thus, it is not feasible to prepare an outline that suits every situation.

It should be noted that Rapid Assessment method complements formal data collection methods and by no means is a substitution of one for the other. Furthermore, time in which data is collected and resource required to produce the data are important determinants of choice of the different methods. The following is a brief description of some of the key issues.

The VAM Data Collection & Analysis Process

Define Needs & Priorities(Programmes & Sectors)

Data Sources

Formal survey

Secondary Data Collection Rapid Assessmentand Collation

Establish Database

Define tools & methods ofAnalysis

Data Analysis Data Synthesis

Put into good use

Validate & Update the process

Reduced Rapid Vulnerability Assessment Under Emergency Conditions

1. Name of Village visited _________ Location in a district _______2. Location (GPS) _______ (for geo-reference)

3. Settlement pattern (scattered, nested, clustered)4. Estimate of population of an area visited:

A rough estimate of total number of people & households in the village:Resident population ---------Returnee population ---------

Preliminary note of households’ gender structure (Female/Male headed); A rough idea of ethnic grouping of resident and returnee population:

4. Identify major crops grown in the area: Food Crops: Cash Crops: Note: performance and/or problems of agricultural production:

5. Economic structure of urban population in terms of income profile, population concentration, functions of transport, market and other facilities;

6. Assessment of infrastructure: Are the following facilities available? Provide a general comment about availability and accessibility of the following.

Health facilities (types, numbers, personnel) Major diseases in the area: Schools (types, numbers) Markets: types & prices for major commodities: Roads (types, availability of commercial vehicles) Storage (types, length of storage, estimated storage losses, etc.) Water -- sources for human and livestock consumption; Water prices (for

areas affected by shortages); Reliability of water sources (seasonally: dry and rainy seasons); Control of access to water; Quality of water

7. Assess access to:

Firewood: availability Livestock (Numbers, livestock products, pasture) Wild-game (types and availability) Wild foods (types, importance in relation to distress, trends in diet). Fish catch availability

8. Is there an ongoing food aid distribution? If so by who, criteria for beneficiary selection? 9. Social organisation of the village (leadership pattern, political and social structure): 10. What forms of income generating activities do you note? 11. What types of land tenure arrangements exist for the area (who owns land, forms of transfer, inheritance customs). How could pattern of land tenure affect returning population?12. Community opinion

What are perceived or observed community problems and needs? Suggested recommendations (solutions) including community initiatives?

13. Household composition: estimates of household size, current level of consumption. 14. Composition of diet (seasonal access):

1.5. What are the major sources of food for the area: identify relative importance of the following:-

Own production (estimate of total production, current stock); Market purchases (types, quantity purchased and prices); Hunting/searching for wild foods/animals (compare to normal and distress

periods):

Fishing: Sharing/borrowing/begging Food aid: Traditional food sharing practices (including ceremonies, festivals):

16. Problems of food availability (market access, prices, income, and production shortfall).17. Food preferences (qualitative)

Staples: Pulses and energy foods: Changes in food preference resulting from current situation?

18. Food taboos/speciality foods:19. Observed nutritional status of children?20. Children health status: are there sick children?21. What are the major diseases observed in the area?22. Targeting: Are there special groups of people who should receive food aid?

Annex III: Generalised List of

RAPID FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT:

PART I: TOPICAL OUTLINE FOR GROUP INTERVIEW:

Village LocationPopulation of the village:

Total Number of people & householdsClan: & Sub-clanHousehold Types (by economic criteria) male - female

wealthyaveragepoor

Major Crops Grown and Trends (ten years)Access to Infrastructure

health facilities religions school

vocational " modern "

markets prices: price tread in the past year sorghum + maize (Rice, Beans, Sugar, Onion, Tomato, Tea leaves, Cooking oil, gee)Prices of:

Goats Sheep Camel Cow roads

storage: types of - - Milk, Gee

- Grain - Meat water sources (shallow wells, boreholes, Water reservoir)

water pricereliability of water sourcestime spent to collect water

Access to Natural Resourcesforests reserves/wetlandsmining resourceslivestockwild game (culturally not permitted only the outcast does that)wild foodtrends (5 years)

Access to Government Services/Community services/who is financing managingagriculture (extension)forestryveterinaryhealth

other

Community Participation in Food AidPopulation Trends (in and out migration) five yearsClimatic Trends (ten years)Social Organizations:

Village / sub-clan, chief, elderspolitical leadership, social leadershipfood sharing networks

Other Income Generating ActivitiesGeneral Responses to Food ScarcityAccess to Development Projects (Design and Participation)

a) Community programmes and projectsb) NGO and donor programmes & projects

Land Tenure Arrangements (who owns land, forms of transfer, etc) five years trend.Access to Credit facilities (formal and informal)Community Problems and Needs (Rank)Suggested recommendations (solutions)In what ways does the lack of effective central government affected your village?What are the effects and impacts of war on your village economy?What are the prospects for peace and development?

PART II: TOPICAL OUTLINE FOR SPECIFIC HOUSEHOLD INTERVIEW

II Specific Household Interview

Village:Name of household Head

I. Demographic Information

Gender of HH Head (mail or female)Marital StatusAgeFamily Composition (adults living in household, children, other dependents)Health status (sick person)Educational Background of HH membersEthnic Group/clan, sub-clanOccupations of HH members (full time or part time)

II. Access to Resources

Access to Land; Tenure Access to Common Property

forestspastureswater

Access to Means of productionfarm equipment (tools)farm inputs such as seed, fertilizer

Access to Livestock: Seasonal migration of livestockDestination migrationtype and number of animals selling patterns (within one year time frame) small ruminant

Where do they sell livestockProblem of livestock production

Big ruminant why do they sell Proposed solution

veterinary service. Types of animal diseases Private NGO

III. Livelihood Strategies

Crops Grown (maize, sorghum, beans, watermelon, etc.)Other vegetablesfor each crop ask:

- cultivation practices (hoe, ox, tractor hiring) - Size of land cultivate - How much they harvested - Last season good, average, above average, poor

- division of labor (men, women, children)- timing of different stages of cultivation (crop calendar)

- Preparation, sowing, weeding, harvesting - inputs used (seeds, fertilizers, manure, insecticides) where obtained - Use of crop (marketed, consumed) - (one year) - constraints to production - solution to problems

Other Income Generating ActivitiesOff-farm employment (wage labor)seasonal migrationhuntingfirewood or charcoal sales/where they get, when they sell)trading (types of commodity trade)transfer income (remittance)sale of wild foods (honey?)other (handcrafts) etc....

IV. Coping Strategies

Adjustment to Meals (number, amount, diversity) No. of meals (meat, beans, vegetables) Food Substitution Sale of Assets Borrowing from Relatives/Friends Credit (who, administrative cost, terms) Migration Wild Foods/Unusual Foods Alternative Employment

Redistribution of livestock Redistribution of children Remittances Food Aid Other

Changing in coping strategies

V. Food Consumption Patterns

Composition of Diet (seasonal access)Types of staplesmain pulses and protein food (vegetables, meat, fish + milk)

snack foods (supplementary energy foods)Sources of Food (one year)

own productionMarket purchases

types of food purchasedseasonalityprices

Livestock (slaughtering, milk, gee)sharing/borrowing/beggingcredit (borrowing)food aid

reliefZakat

Problems of Food Availability (market access, price, income, production shortfall)

Food Conservation/Preservation

food processing (what, how, who)access to mills(Imported)

food storagetypes of structuretypes of food storedduration of storageother preservation techniquesproblems (losses due to pests, moisture damage)

Traditional Food Sharing Practices(Including ceremonies, festivals) funerals, "days of the dead"

Food Preferences (qualities)staplespulses and energy foodssnacks

Food Taboos/Specialty FoodsChanges in the Diet (trends in last 10 years)

VI. Child care

Care of Children When Mother is Working in fieldNumber of Feeding TimesWeaning Foods (types, weaning age)

VII. Household's own Perception of Household Food Security

Perceived Adequacy of Access to FoodConstraintsCompetition between Food Needs and other Livelihood NeedsProposed Solutions

VIII. Participation in Food Aid Programmes

Participation in Food for Work Programmes

History of programme participation(how they became involved, who in the family participates)Wage earnings (type of foods, if food is obtained locallyor imported) and impact of earnings on livelihoodImpact on family eating patterns (taste preferences, types of food eaten, meal frequency, contribution of programme to total food consumption (dependency)Impact on health and nutritional statusSeasonality of employment

participants perception of impact of FFW project (household orcommunity based).

Participation in Drought Relief ProgrammeNature of Disaster or Chronic Food Security Problem (production failure, drought, etc)History of Programme Participation (how they became involved, who in the family participates)Impact on family eating patterns (taste preferences, types of food eaten, meal frequency, contribution of programme to total food consumption (dependency)Impact on health and nutritional statusRation size and commodity mix (imported or local, adequacy,frequency of distribution)Timeliness and effectiveness of response (degree of asset depletion,perception of monitoring and participation)Participants perception of strengths and weaknesses of food aid programmeTargeting (are there special group of people who should receive food aid?)Recommendations for improvements