Hot Topics From Hot Topics From Washington, DCWashington, DC

What’s Past May Not Be What’s Past May Not Be Prologue!Prologue!

Scott E. MillerPHEAA

smiller1@pheaa.org10/11/10

2010 in Focus2010 in Focus

A Crucial And Volatile Political YearA Crucial And Volatile Political Year Potential To Be “Historic”Potential To Be “Historic” Critical for President Obama’s Future Critical for President Obama’s Future

AgendaAgenda Political Dynamic Has Changed Political Dynamic Has Changed

Dramatically from 2008Dramatically from 2008 Implications Abound for Student Aid Implications Abound for Student Aid

and Higher Educationand Higher Education

Setting the StageSetting the Stage February 10, 2007: Sen. February 10, 2007: Sen.

Barack Obama Declares for the PresidencyBarack Obama Declares for the Presidency January 3, 2008: Sen. Obama Wins Iowa January 3, 2008: Sen. Obama Wins Iowa

CaucusesCaucuses June 7, 2008: Senator Hilary Clinton June 7, 2008: Senator Hilary Clinton

Concedes Democratic NominationConcedes Democratic Nomination November 2008: Sen. Obama Becomes November 2008: Sen. Obama Becomes

President-Elect with 365 Electoral VotesPresident-Elect with 365 Electoral Votes• Democrats extend House majority by 21 seatsDemocrats extend House majority by 21 seats• Democrats reach magic 60 Senate votes (in June Democrats reach magic 60 Senate votes (in June

when MN is finally decided)when MN is finally decided) Reduced to 59 votes with Scott Brown’s (R, MA) Reduced to 59 votes with Scott Brown’s (R, MA)

election in Januaryelection in January

Change!Change! 1955-1994 – 40-Year Democratic 1955-1994 – 40-Year Democratic

Control of House of RepresentativesControl of House of Representatives 1994-2006 – 12-Year Republican 1994-2006 – 12-Year Republican

Control of HouseControl of House 2006-2010 – 4-Year Democratic 2006-2010 – 4-Year Democratic

Control of HouseControl of House 2011????2011???? Have Voters Lost Their Fear Have Voters Lost Their Fear

of Change?of Change?

National SentimentNational Sentiment

Right Direction/Wrong TrackRight Direction/Wrong Track

2008 Election

Health Care

EnactedStimulus Bill

Signed

Summer ofTown Halls

Health Care ReformHealth Care Reform

Looking Ahead to NovemberLooking Ahead to November Key Trends Point to ChangeKey Trends Point to Change

• Will it be a “tidal wave”?Will it be a “tidal wave”? Anger Could Extend to Both PartiesAnger Could Extend to Both Parties Analysts Coalescing Around Republican Control of Analysts Coalescing Around Republican Control of

HouseHouse• Republicans swamp Democrats in primary voter turnoutRepublicans swamp Democrats in primary voter turnout• Republican voters more “motivated”Republican voters more “motivated”

Democrats Likely/Possibly/Should Keep Control of Democrats Likely/Possibly/Should Keep Control of Senate, Maybe!Senate, Maybe!• Key States: CA, WI, NV, WA, IL, WVKey States: CA, WI, NV, WA, IL, WV• Is PA in play?Is PA in play?• 2012 could be real test of Democratic control2012 could be real test of Democratic control

Will the Wave Wash Over State & Local Races?Will the Wave Wash Over State & Local Races? Some Incumbents “Won’t See it Coming…”Some Incumbents “Won’t See it Coming…”

Comparisons to 1994Comparisons to 1994

Election Day199422% Election Day

200823%

Post-9/11High WaterMark (62%)

Congress is Even Less Congress is Even Less Popular TodayPopular Today

Independents Switching Sides?Independents Switching Sides?

Stimulus BillSigned

Health Care Bill Signed

Summer ofTown Halls

The Key Indicator?The Key Indicator?

PA: Blue; National: GreySource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (8/2010)

PA & National Unemployment RatesPA & National Unemployment Rates

Meaningful?Meaningful?

Gallup Poll – 10/5/10:Gallup Poll – 10/5/10:• 3% Republican lead 3% Republican lead

among registered votersamong registered voters• 13% Republican lead 13% Republican lead

among “likely voters”among “likely voters”

View of the Economy Generic Ballot

What About the Tea Party?What About the Tea Party? Is it a Real Political Force?Is it a Real Political Force?

• 43% view favorably*43% view favorably*• 35% unfavorably*35% unfavorably*• 8% never heard of (means 92% have)*8% never heard of (means 92% have)*

Is it a Bunch of “Wackos”?Is it a Bunch of “Wackos”?• Founding may have been in Bucks County, PAFounding may have been in Bucks County, PA• Anger about stimulus bill & bailoutsAnger about stimulus bill & bailouts• Ask Lisa Murkowski, Mike Castle, Bob BennettAsk Lisa Murkowski, Mike Castle, Bob Bennett

Motivated VotersMotivated Voters• Dominated low-turnout primariesDominated low-turnout primaries• Likely to return to polls in NovemberLikely to return to polls in November

Elected Members Will Be Part of Elected Members Will Be Part of Republican CaucusRepublican Caucus

Echoes of Late 1970’sEchoes of Late 1970’s

*Politico/GWU Battleground Poll; September 19-22-2010*Politico/GWU Battleground Poll; September 19-22-2010

Views of Tea Partiers Views of Tea Partiers

Recent Surveys Show Tea Party Members are “Social Conservatives”Recent Surveys Show Tea Party Members are “Social Conservatives”• ““Values” not driving the movementValues” not driving the movement• Different than Christian Coalition of 1970’s & 80’sDifferent than Christian Coalition of 1970’s & 80’s

Implications for Higher EducationImplications for Higher Education

Legislative Gridlock Could Preclude Major Legislative Gridlock Could Preclude Major LegislationLegislation• Fewer moderates in both partiesFewer moderates in both parties• Split control of CongressSplit control of Congress• 2012 campaign starts on November 32012 campaign starts on November 3rdrd

Focus on Deficit Reduction Regardless of Focus on Deficit Reduction Regardless of OutcomeOutcome• Entitlement commissionEntitlement commission• Squeeze on domestic fundsSqueeze on domestic funds• Tough times for student aid fundingTough times for student aid funding• Across-the-board cuts??Across-the-board cuts??

Pennsylvania PoliticsPennsylvania Politics

Pennsylvania Races Seem More Locally Pennsylvania Races Seem More Locally FocusedFocused

Republicans Leading State-Wide RacesRepublicans Leading State-Wide Races Several Congressional Seats in PlaySeveral Congressional Seats in Play

• Kanjorski (11Kanjorski (11thth CD), Dahlkemper (3 CD), Dahlkemper (3rdrd CD), P. CD), P. Murphy (8Murphy (8thth CD), Critz (12 CD), Critz (12thth CD), Carney (10 CD), Carney (10thth CD), 7CD), 7thth CD CD

• What do they all have in common?What do they all have in common? General Assembly Could Tip RepublicanGeneral Assembly Could Tip Republican

• Implications for 2011 RedistrictingImplications for 2011 Redistricting

PA Senate RacePA Senate Race

PA Governor’s RacePA Governor’s Race

It’s Tough to Make It’s Tough to Make Predictions, Predictions,

Especially About the Future*Especially About the Future*

*

What To Watch For on What To Watch For on November 2ndNovember 2nd

Senate Seats: PA, FL, DE, IN, WV, IL, WI, CO, Senate Seats: PA, FL, DE, IN, WV, IL, WI, CO, NV, CANV, CA• Republican’s need to gain 10 seats for majorityRepublican’s need to gain 10 seats for majority

Governors Races: MA, FL, OH, IL, CAGovernors Races: MA, FL, OH, IL, CA House Races: Magic Number is 218House Races: Magic Number is 218

• Republicans need to gain 39 seats for majorityRepublicans need to gain 39 seats for majority How many from PA?How many from PA?

Hot Topics From Hot Topics From Washington, DCWashington, DC

What’s Past May Not Be What’s Past May Not Be Prologue!Prologue!

Scott E. MillerPHEAA

smiller1@pheaa.org10/11/10