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Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Horizon Scanning:
approaches, benefits and limitations
Harry Williams, Member Interest Groups Manager
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
• ‘Horizon Scanning’ term increasingly used in industry
• Independent study (BSc Food Manufacture)
• MIG members surveyed & interviewed
• Jan 2016 – May 2017
Background
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
1. What is horizon scanning and why bother?
2. How is it being applied within the food industry?
3. What are the business impacts of horizon scanning?
Key questions – The Ronseal Test
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Why bother?
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
• Historic cases: Sudan dyes, Melamine, Horsemeat
• TACCP/VACCP
• Elliot review – key recommendation
• BRC Global standards
Why bother?
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
“The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities
and likely future developments which are at the margins of current
thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and
unexpected issues as well as persistent problems and trends”
(Defra, 2002)
What is horizon scanning?
Define scope Information Data
collection Interpretation
Decision making
Guideline No. 65 (Emond, Keenan and Pelletier, 2011)
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
1. What is horizon scanning and why bother?
2. How is it being applied within the food industry?
a) Identify the ‘issues’ companies are ‘scanning’ for
b) Document tools and approaches used
3. What are the business impacts of horizon scanning?
Key questions – The Ronseal Test
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Delphi
stage
Strategy Aim Sample Type of questions Method of
analysis
1 Observation Trend analysis of
issues raised at
MIGs
500 ‘hot topics’
76 meetings
(2015-2016)
Direct
observation and
discussion
Content and key
words analysis
2 Quantitative
questionnaire
Quantify industry
perceptions of
horizon scanning
practices
1,957 Campden
BRI MIG
members
Closed/Likert
scale questions,
nominal data and
open questions
Descriptive
analysis (e.g.
graphical data)
3 Qualitative
semi-structured
interviews
Discuss benefits
and limitations of
horizon scanning
5-10 company
interviews
Semi-structured
questions and
anecdotal
evidence
Case studies
and examples
Project design – Delphi study
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Issue identification
Research & Development
Legislation
Third parties
Media Internet
Own data
Hot topics
(MIGs)
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Hot topics – Key term analysis
Key term
Top 10 key terms from all hot topics raised (2015-2016)
Issue category
manufacturing & processing
Regulations
Safety
Market trends
Supply chain integrity
Market trends
Sustainability
Safety
Market trends
Supply chain integrity
Supply chain integrity
No. of topics
(2015 - 2016)
29
23
19
18
17
17
14
13
11
11
10
reformulation
labelling
allergens
labour
authenticity
consumer
water
shelf-life
Brexit
TACCP
traceability
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Issue categorisation – hot topics (no. of topics per category)
Supply chain integrity
Manufacturing &
Processing
Regulations
Contaminants
Market
Trends
Packaging
Sustainability
Chemicals
Quality
Safety
Raw
materials
Micro
82 53 53 51 29
74 34 35
29 27
23 29
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Issue prioritisation - by ranked importance (in relation to horizon scanning – member survey)
Regulations
Safety issues
Chemicals
Raw materials
4.4
4.3 4.0
4.3 3.3
29
4.0 4.0
161 responses (1 = Not important 5 = Very important)
Contaminants
4.3
Supply chain
integrity
4.3
Quality issues
4.0
Micro issues
4.0
Sustainability
Processing
Packaging
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.6 3.6
Market trends
3.6
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Horizon scanning – areas of focus
Issue Examples
regulations • Legislation changes in acrylamide
• Labelling requirements
• Reformulation driven by legislation change
safety issues • Salmonella in Pistachios
• Aflatoxins in chilli
• Lead in turmeric
raw materials and ingredients • Crop failure issues switch in suppliers
• Traceability (illegal dyes, GMOs)
• Price changes
supply chain integrity • Decides which suppliers are awarded contracts
• Develop products to comply with audit standards
contaminants • Extension of testing programme
• Helps to define frequency of testing
• Identified chlorate/perchlorate as an emerging
contaminant issue 3-4 years prior to being known
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
1. What is horizon scanning and why bother?
2. How is it being applied within the food industry?
a) Identify the ‘issues’ companies are ‘scanning’ for
b) Document tools and approaches used
3. What are the business impacts of horizon
scanning?
Key questions – The Ronseal Test
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Approaches – level of engagement
79%
21%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Yes
No
Does your company perform horizon scanning activities?
288 responses, 15% population surveyed
42%
28%
19%
7%
4%
Greatest pressure to perform horizon scanning
Internally (e.g. strategic/board level)
Retail/customer
Standards bodies (e.g. BRC, ISO)
Government legislation & policy
Other (please describe)
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Approaches – levels of engagement
5%
21%
29%
29%
16%
Reasons given for not performing horizon scanning
No time
Lack of resources
Not aware of it
Use other techniques
Not required
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Approaches – Tools used
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Own company data
Scientific literature
Email/newsfeeds
Media (TV/radio/websites etc.)
Social media (blogs, mobile apps)
Networking events
Third party services
Non-governmental organisation
Other (please specify)
Based on 161 responses (71% of those who perform horizon scanning)
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Approaches – by supply chain
Stage Sample
Performing horizon scanning Information & data Outputs
Yes No Responsibility Time frame Source(s) Collation Reporting Frequency
Primary
production &
raw materials
36 92% 8% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Email/Newsfeeds Manual Email Monthly
Supplier1 35 86% 14% Technical/food safety 12-24 months Own data
Third parties Manual Email Ad hoc basis
Processor /
manufacturer 134 80% 20% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Own data Manual Email Monthly
Distributor 18 78% 22% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Own data
Third parties Manual Email Ad hoc basis
Retail 33 82% 18% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Own data Manual Email Daily /
Monthly
Food service 27 78% 22% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Third parties Manual Email Monthly
Trader 12 100% 0% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Own data Manual Email Daily
Trade
association 3 100% 0% Legal & Regulatory 0-12 months
Email/newsfeeds
Networking Manual Email Ad hoc basis
Wholesaler 16 81% 19% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Third parties Manual Email Monthly/ ad
hoc basis
Research
association 3 100% 0% Technical/food safety 12-24 months No preference Manual
Report Ad hoc basis
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
1. What is horizon scanning and why bother?
2. How is it being applied within the food industry?
a) Identify the ‘issues’ companies are ‘scanning’ for
b) Document tools and approaches used
3. What are the business impacts of horizon scanning?
a) Benefits – where it works well
b) Limitations – challenges involved
Key questions – The Ronseal Test
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
• Raw material supply
• Preparing for regulatory changes
• Supporting ‘due diligence’ & risk assessments
• Commercial opportunities
Benefits – where it works well
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Benefits – examples
Reformulation
“We were able to identify changes in consumer
attitudes towards sugar and potential introduction of taxes. We now have a
strategic plan in place across our entire product
range”
Beverage producer
Integrity
“Through our ‘eyes on the ground’ in our supply chain
we are able to identify ‘emerging issues’ and
review our test procedures to detect adulterated
products before entering the premises”
Condiments/Seasonings manufacturer
Raw materials
“Horizon scanning has helped to identify emerging
contamination of raw materials – often well ahead of FSA recall
announcements”
Food service operator
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
• Resource intensive – time is biggest limiting factor
• Databases/automated tools often ‘reactive’
• Interpretation – expertise & decision making
• Education & ‘buy in’
Limitations – challenges involved
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Largely reactive
“Our horizon scanning is often a short-term exercise.
There is a danger of it being largely reactive. External information
sources identify issues that can already be 6 months in
their development”
Wholesaler
‘Educated guess’
“Issues appear out of the blue that can be difficult to
predict. At best horizon scanning is an educated
guess. The value of information depends on the expertise of those available
to share and interpret it”
Multinational Brewer
Time is precious
“Data is collated manually. Spreadsheets are
translated to written reports that are then discussed in
team meetings before deciding on whether any action should be taken”
Soft drinks manufacturer
Limitations - examples
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Conclusions
• Food industry is well engaged – 80% openly ‘horizon scanning’
• Short-term - many companies do not look beyond 12 months
• Resource intensive –time, volume of data and interpretation
• Networks and third parties ‘most effective’ for ‘emerging issues’
• Scope for raising awareness and reviewing guidance
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
Looking ahead....
• Few companies can afford to ‘ignore’ it
• An increase in dedicated resources within companies
• Integration with ‘food safety culture’
• Scope for ‘opportunities’ - cost-benefit analysis
Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations
…horizon scanning
“You cannot escape
the responsibility of
tomorrow by
evading it today”
Abraham Lincoln
“It is always wise to
look ahead, but
difficult to look
further than you
can see”
Winston Churchill