HONG KONG China Oilfield Services - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/HK_RES/STOCK/2016/7/25/e44da543-dd96-427b-be91-c... · Macquarie Research China Oilfield Services 25 July 2016

Please refer to page 13 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

HONG KONG

2883 HK Neutral

Price (at 07:59, 22 Jul 2016 GMT) HK$6.13

Valuation HK$ 3.70-9.10 - Residual Income (Bear-Bull)

12-month target HK$ 5.60

12-month TSR % -7.7

Volatility Index High

GICS sector Energy

Market cap HK$m 27,554

Market cap US$m 3,553

30-day avg turnover US$m 8.8

Number shares on issue m 4,495

Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E

Revenue m 23,417 17,663 18,837 20,043 EBITDA m 5,845 -4680 3,608 4,451

EBITDA growth % -52.1 nmf nmf 23.4 Adjusted profit m 2,098 -2143 -1091 -193 EPS adj Rmb 0.44 -0.45 -0.23 -0.04 EPS adj growth % -72.2 nmf 49.1 82.3 PER adj x 12.0 nmf nmf nmf Total div yield % 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 ROA % 1.8 -10.6 -0.9 0.3 ROE % 4.5 -5.6 -3.7 -0.7 EV/EBITDA x 8.0 -10.5 12.9 10.5 Net debt/equity % 48.5 101.3 110.9 108.6 P/BV x 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, July 2016

(all figures in Rmb unless noted, TP in HKD)

Macquarie versus Consensus MacQ Cons. % diff

Target Price (HK$) 5.6 5.7 -2%

Upside/(downside) -9% -6% -2 pp

Target 2017 EV-EBITDA 15.3x 9.9x 55%

2017E EBITDA (Rmb, bn) 3.6 5.6 -36%

2017E EPS (Rmb) -0.23 0.14 nmf

2017E DPS (Rmb) 0.05 0.05 -5%

2016-18E Dividend Yield 0.9% 1.1% -20 bps

2016-18E FCF Yield 0.5% 1.2% -72 bps

2016-18E ND/E 107% 67% 40 pp


(all figures in Rmb unless noted, TP in HKD

Analyst(s) Aditya Suresh, CFA +852 3922 1265 [email protected]

25 July 2016 Macquarie Capital Limited

China Oilfield Services Fundamentally challenged On the sidelines... despite a bullish oil price view

At Macquarie we think spot oil prices need to structurally rise by 60% to US$75

per barrel long term. COSL’s share price has historically been highly correlated

to oil prices and the company is less vulnerable to balance sheet stress.

However we opt to remain on the sidelines as the significant earnings downside

risk for COSL–regardless of what the oil price does–dominates our thinking. See

companion Global sector note ‘Defensive oil optionality’.

Global offshore rig markets materially oversupplied and rig rates will remain under pressure

While COSL was relatively insulated to global rig-rate dynamics in the past, it is

now facing increasing pressure from CNOOC to lower rates. With current market

rates for jack-ups and semi-subs 35%-55% below what COSL earns (fig 10-11),

we see ongoing downside risk. Further about 65% of COSL’s fleet needs to be

re-marketed in 2H16/2017. With significant excess capacity in global offshore rig

markets (fig 12-13), we expect the current muted day-rate environment to persist

in 2017/18 with risks skewed to the downside, even in a rising oil price

environment.

Material consensus downgrades ahead

COSL’s domestic revenue has traditionally been highly correlated to sister

company CNOOC’s capex (R2 93% 2002-15). CNOOC has earmarked its China

capex to fall 16% in 2016, while COSL’s key overseas client Statoil has already

cancelled two key contracts. We model COSL’s revenue to fall 25% y/y in 2016.

This then translates to a more meaningful c.60% decline in clean EBITDA and a

loss at the EBIT line. Even assuming a rising CNOOC capex profile, our 2016-

18E base-bear clean EBITDA forecast for COSL is 40-60% below consensus.

The Bull Case—CNOOC capex could rise materially

CNOOC’s proven reserve life of 8 years is low versus global peers. In a bull case

scenario CNOOC targets maintaining its reserve life at current levels and if we

assume US$25/boe finding & development cost then the implied annual capex

for CNOOC would be 65% above 2016 levels (math outline in fig 5), and in turn

equate to 40% upside to COSL’s revenue and our valuation. We would be

buyers of COSL if we had visibility on this outcome.

COSL Bull-Bear Risk Reward Outlook

Source: Macquarie Research, July 2016

3.75.6

9.1

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0 HK$/sh

Current share price

Macquarie Research China Oilfield Services

25 July 2016 2

Bull-Bear Outlook

Fig 1 COSL Bull-Bear Outlook: Significant downside risk to dayrates and utilization... unless CNOOC significantly expands capex to maintain its proven reserve life

Source: Macquarie Research, July 2016

Base Case HK$5.60, 8% TSR downside

Our HK$5.60 one-year price target for COSL is based on a residual income valuation at a

8.2% discount rate, and implies 12x 2018E EV-EBITDA. Key base case assumptions include:

Brent oil price assumption 2016/17/18/long-term: US$44/61/68/74 per barrel.

In our view global jack-up and semi-sub day-rates will likely remain under pressure for the

next few years even if oil rebounds, due to the oversupplied nature of offshore rig markets.

We model COSL’s jack-up dayrates to decline 30% y/y in 2016 to US$65K/day (global

average today c.US$50K/day) and semi-sub rates to fall a more significant 50% to

US$150K/day (global average today c.US$120K/day). With offshore rig markets set to

remain oversupplied over the next few years, we assume no rate recovery for 2017/18.

We assume 2016/17/18E CNOOC China capex of Rmb32/35/38 billion.

We expect the traditionally strong relationship between CNOOC’s China capex and

COSL’s China revenue (R2 93% since 2002) to be maintained—in our modelling this

shows up via an improving jack-up fleet utilization rate outlook. However the outlook for

COSL’s semi-subs working overseas (mainly Statoil) will likely remain challenged. The net

result is that we expect 2016 revenue to fall 25% y/y and only recover a modest 7% pa in

2017/18. Our 2016-18e revenue forecast is 7% below consensus.

Our 2016-18E clean EBITDA forecasts are a more material 40% below consensus, due to

lower assumed drilling margins, in line with the trend in global offshore drilling margins.

At the net income line, our modelling implies COSL reports its first annual loss in 2016 and

turns profitable again only in 2018E.

We have factored COSL’s Rmb7.1 billion impairment announced on 24-July. Albeit our

residual income valuation for COSL is largely un-impacted by impairments.

Bull Case HK$9.10, 45% upside

If CNOOC materially expands capex to address its relative low proven reserve life and

COSL’s drilling margins normalize, then we note 45% upside in our bull case valuation.

$30/bbl forever? HK$3.70 Bear Case, 40% downside

COSL’s fundamental earnings headwinds would be exacerbated in a falling oil price

environment and the shares will underperform all three of its Chinese SOE oilco sisters.

3.75.6

9.1

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0 HK$/sh

Current share price

HK$5.60 one-year

price target; Neutral

Recommendation

Bull case rests on a

material pick up in

CNOOC capex


25 July 2016 3

The Bull Case—default proof oil gearing 1. Oil is rising and so will COSL

Perhaps. At Macquarie we think the current Brent forward curve is US$15 per barrel too low.

COSL’s share price has historically experienced a strong technical correlation with oil prices.

COSL shares are already down c.75% from the start of 2014, underperforming its large cap

Chinese oilco sisters (CNOOC, PetroChina, Sinopec) by an average 50%. In a rising oil price

environment COSL shares could therefore outperform as all the negatives are likely already

in the price. While we see merit in this view, we are less convinced in today’s environment—

see the pushback section on page 5-6.

Fig 2 Brent Crude Price: Macquarie c.$15 per barrel above the forward curve

Fig 3 COSL has a strong technical correlation with oil price

Source: Macquarie Research, July 2016 Source: Datastream, Macquarie Research, July 2016

2. CNOOC capex could materially rise

Agree. CNOOC’s proven reserve life (1P reserves/production) at end-2015 was 8.4 years,

low by global standards (fig 4). CNOOC’s finding & development (F&D) cost has increased an

average 9% pa over the past decade to US$34.0/boe in 2015; 10-year average US$25.8/boe.

In a scenario CNOOC targets maintaining its reserve life at current levels and assuming

US$25/boe F&D (close to the 10Y average) then as we show in fig 5 below the upside to

consensus CNOOC capex is a material 65%. In turn this would imply about 40% upside to

consensus revenue, assuming: (a) CNOOC spends half of its capex budget in China, and (b)

COSL maintains its c.40% market share of CNOOC China capex.

Fig 4 Proven Reserve Life (Reserves/Production): CNOOC’s 1P life is low relative to peers

Fig 5 COSL bull case... potential significant uplift in CNOOC capex due to a relatively low reserve life

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2016 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2016

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

3Q16E 1Q17E 3Q17E 1Q18E 3Q18E

Brent Forecast versus Consensus and Forward curve

Brent forecast

Consensus

Forward Curve

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

US$/bblHK$/sh COSL vs. Brent Oil Price

COSL share price Brent Oil Price - rhs

0 5 10 15 20

Rosneft

Exxon

PetroChina

BP

Total

Occidental

Conoco

Chevron

Repsol

Petrobras

ENI

Shell

CNOOC

Statoil

Sinopec

years1P Oil & Gas Reserve Life CNOOC Proven Reserves, 2015 (mn boe) 4,023

2016-18 Total Production (mn boe) -1,457

2016-18 Reserve Addition Needed (mn boe) 1,642

CNOOC Proven Reserves, 2018 (mn boe) 4,208

2018E Production (mn boe) 495

Reserve Life R/P Target, 2018 (years) 8.5

F&D cost US$/boe 25.0

2016-18E Total CNOOC capex (US$, billion) 41.0

....2016 Capex Guidance (US$, billion) 9.1

...2017-18E CNOOC capex (US$, billion) 31.9

2017-18E Avg. CNOOC capex (Rmb, billion) 107.0

% Upside vs. Consensus 65%

COSL shares are

geared to oil prices

CNOOC capex to

rise... and COSL to

benefit


25 July 2016 4

3. Multiples could expand... regardless of fundamentals

Perhaps. Post GFC, COSL’s one-year forward EV-EBITDA multiple has ranged between

7.5x (2014 peak EBITDA) and 15x (2010 oil price recovery towards $100 and expectations of

EBITDA growth). Today COSL trades on 12.9x/10.5x 2017/18E EV-EBITDA. If there was a

clear path to an earnings recovery for COSL we would have been willing to target a 15x

multiple due to our rising oil price expectation. As things stand however, in our view COSL’s

fundamentals are set to deteriorate and we note that COSL would be trading on a lofty

20x/18x 2017/18E EV-EBITDA under our bear assumptions. We are therefore reluctant to

stray away from our residual income valuation which implies limited upside from here.

Fig 6 EV-EBITDA consensus: COSL looks fairly valued

Fig 7 Price-to-Book consensus: looks cheap but impairment risk

Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, July 2016 Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, July 2016

On Price-to-Book COSL trades on 0.9x—accounting for the Rmb7.1 billion asset impairment

announced on 24-July—broadly in-line with the global average. That said, to the extent we

see a general sector re-rating in a rising oil price environment, we note that pre-2014 COSL

used to trade on 1.5x-2.5x P/B and its global peers on 1.2x-1.5x. Our bull case valuation of

HK$9.20/sh implies 1.2x P/B for COSL.

4. It’s an SOE... so low default risk

Agree. Following the recently announced asset impairments COSL’s net debt/equity has

risen to slightly over 100% from 49% at end-15. That said, COSL’s SOE background and

implicit backing of sister CNOOC makes it far less vulnerable to balance sheet stress relative

to its global peers—a key support factor in the current environment. In addition with the fleet

expansion already largely completed and with a capex-to-depreciation ratio of 2.3x over the

past ten years, COSL’s capex outlay will be significantly lower going forward.

Fig 8 Cash Flow Outlook: material capex cuts and a gradually improving FCF outlook

Fig 9 Balance sheet gearing is high and rising toward 2008-09 levels


0

25

50

75

100

125

0x

4x

8x

12x

16x

20x

US$/bblEV-EBITDA 1-yr fwd

Oil Price - rhs Global Offshore Driller Avg COSL

0.0x

0.5x

1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

3.0x

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Global 90th - 10th Percentile

COSL Global Offshore Driller Average

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

Rmb, bn COSL Cash Flow Outlook

Cash Flow from Ops CapexDividends InterestCFO-Capex-Interest-Dividends

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

COSL Gearing Outlook

Net Debt/Equity Debt/Assets

COSL looks fairly

priced on EV-

EBITDA...

Protected balance

sheet despite high

gearing

... and P/B


25 July 2016 5

The Pushback—challenged fundamentals Yes COSL’s share price has historically been geared to oil prices and the company is less

vulnerable to balance sheet stress. We however opt to remain on the sidelines–even with a

constructive oil price view–as in our view COSL’s earnings outlook will likely remain

suppressed for at least the next few years—regardless of what the oil price does. As things

stand we feel the risk to our street low EBITDA estimates (34% below) is to the downside.

As such, in our minds CNOOC is a far more straightforward way to express a bullish oil price

view. In a relative value context, we would be Long CNOOC and Short COSL.

1. Global offshore rig markets to remain oversupplied and rig rates to remain under pressure

In tandem with the fall in offshore rig utilization rates since 2014, global jack-up day-rates

(300 feet) have fallen 65% versus 2014 levels to US$52K/day today, while semi-sub rates

(3000 feet) have also fallen 65% to US$122K/day. We expect offshore rig utilization to remain

suppressed till at least 2018 (fig 12-13) and as such see no improvement in rig rates even if

oil prices were to rise per our forecast. While COSL was relatively insulated to global rig rate

dynamics before, it is now facing increasing pressure from CNOOC to lower rates—COSL’s

average jack-up day-rate was down 26% y/y and semi-sub rate down 8% y/y in 2015.

However, with COSL’s rates still well above market, there is scope for further significant day-

rate cuts in our view; we note 35-55% downside to COSL’s jack-up and semi-sub dayrates.

Fig 10 Global Jack-Up day rate: down 65% from peak in 2014; potential 35% downside risk for COSL

Fig 11 Global Semi-sub day rate: also down 65% from peak; more significant 55% downside for COSL

Fig 12 Rigs ordered in 2011-14 are either being cancelled or entering an already oversupplied market...

Fig 13 ... putting additional pressure on rig utilization rates and in-turn dayrates

Source: IHS-Petrodata, Macquarie Research, July 2016

0

50

100

150

200

US$ '000 per day

Global Jack-Up Dayrate (300 feet)

Jackup Dayrate (300 ft) 12mma

COSL 2H15

0

100

200

300

400

US$ '000 per day

Global Semi-Sub Dayrate (3000 feet)

Semisub Dayrate (<3000 ft) 12mma

COSL 2H15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140 # of rigs Offshore Rig Orders

Jack-ups Semisubs

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jack-up Semi-sub Drillship

# of rigs Global Offshore Rig Supply (2016)

Contracted Uncontracted New Capacity 2016-20

On the sidelines as

fundamentals

challenged


25 July 2016 6

2. Muted earnings outlook... further material consensus downgrades required

In 2015, COSL earned 66% of its revenues from China and the remaining overseas. COSL’s

domestic revenue has traditionally been highly correlated to sister company CNOOC’s China

capex (R2 93% 2002-15). CNOOC has earmarked its China capex to fall 16% in 2016, putting

pressure on COSL’s jack-up fleet utilization as well as its other domestic businesses (well

services, geophysical, marine support). In addition, key overseas client Statoil has either

cancelled or put on-standby two of COSL’s semi-subs. The net result is that we model

COSL’s revenue to fall 25% y/y in 2016 (on top of the 30% fall in 2015). Based on an

assumed c.10% pa increase in CNOOC’s China capex budget in 2017/18–to address its low

proven reserve life–we model COSL’s China revenues to gradually recover in 2017/18 but

expect its overseas revenues to remain under-pressure.

Given the high operating leverage, COSL’s 25% revenue decline in 2015 translates to a more

meaningful c.60% decline in clean EBITDA and losses at the EBIT line. While COSL’s

EBITDA improves in 2017/18E, our base case 2016-18E EBITDA forecasts are on average

40% lower than consensus, due to lower revenues and drilling margins. At the net income

line, our modelling implies COSL reports its first annual loss in 2016 and turns profitable

again only in 2018E.

Fig 14 CNOOC China Capex versus COSL China Revenue: A strong historical relationship

Fig 15 COSL revenue outlook: 25% fall in 2016, and only gradual improvement thereafter


Fig 16 COSL EBITDA Outlook: muted in the medium-term; downside risks dominate

Fig 17 Material consensus EBITDA downgrades possible

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2016 Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, July 2016

20042005

2006

2007

2008 20092010

20112012

2013

2014

2015

2016E

2017E2018E

R² = 93% (2002-15)0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000

COSL China Revenue

Rmb, mn

CNOOC China Capex (Rmb, mn)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Rmb, billionRmb, billion COSL Revenue Outlook

COSL China Revenue COSL International Revenue

CNOOC Capex - rhs

0

7

14

21

28

35

0

3

6

9

12

15

Rmb, billion COSL Revenue, EBITDA Outlook

Drilling Well Services Marine Support

Geophysical Revenue - rhs

MacQ Cons. % diff2016E 2.4 4.4 -45%

2017E 3.6 5.6 -36%

2018E 4.5 6.9 -35%

MacQ Cons. % diff2016E -1.94 -0.22 nmf

2017E -0.23 0.18 nmf

2018E -0.04 0.34 -112%

EBITDA (Rmb, bn)

EPS (Rmb/sh)

Base case EBITDA

40% below

consensus

Revenue to decline

25% in 2016... high

operating leverage

results in a loss

making outlook


25 July 2016 7

3. It could be much worse...

Into an oversupplied market... about 65% of COSL’s fleet needs to be re-marketed in

2H16/2017. As things stand we feel the balance of risk to our earnings forecast is to the

downside. Asset impairments represent an additional source of headline earnings risk.

Fig 18 COSL fleet status report (March-2016)

Source: Company data, July 2016

Key downside sensitivities in our mind include:

Jack-Up fleet utilization falls to 50%, from 66% in 2H15, and Semi-Sub utilization falls to

30%, from 52% in 2H15. Note that 7 rigs are currently offline.

Drilling EBITDA margins fall 10 percentage points versus 2015 to a record low 20%.

Both jack-up and semi-sub day-rates fall to global market rates.

Under these bear assumptions our 2017/18E EBITDA forecasts would fall by an average 40%

and leave us c.60% below consensus. In this scenario COSL’s current share price implies

20x/18x 2017/18E EV-EBITDA—above our target peak multiple of 15x and thereby implying

only an ‘optical re-rating’. The reality of this bearish outcome for COSL underpins our Neutral

stance on the stock despite the sharp share price correction since 2014.

Fig 19 COSL 2017E Bear EBITDA outlook Fig 20 COSL 2018E Bear EBITDA outlook

Source: Company data, Factset, Macquarie Research, July 2016 Source: Company data, Factset, Macquarie Research, July 2016

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Rmb, bn

Consensus

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Rmb, bn 2018E Bear Case EBITDA

Consensus

60% consensus

EBITDA downside in

a bear scenario


25 July 2016 8

4. Ongoing impairment risk

COSL announced an Rmb7.1 billion asset impairment in Jul-16, equivalent to 8% of 2015

total assets. Of this Rmb3.5 billion is due to an impairment of goodwill related to its US$2.5

billion Awilco acquisition in 2008, at the peak oil prices.

With 7 out of COSL’s 45 drilling rig fleet are currently offline and a likely muted operational

environment over the next few years (per above pages), we see scope for further such asset

impairments. On HS&E grounds alone, COSL should be scrapping its three 40+ year-old rigs

and potentially some of its further six jack-ups that are 35-39 years-old, in our opinion. COSL

however seeks to convince CNOOC to use its old jack-ups as shallow water production

facilities–a move that looks more influenced by a desire to protect jobs than to pragmatically

manage the assets.

Impairment risk is

real for COSL

Impairment risk is

real for COSL


25 July 2016 9

Valuation Sensitivities

Fig 21 COSL Residual Income Valuation

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2016

(Rmb, million) 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

NOPAT (adj. for impairments) 1,387 -563 -578 213 1,370 2,226

Beginning Net Operating Assets 68,978 69,492 60,707 60,792 59,223 57,988

Return on Net Operating Assets (RNOA) 2.0% -0.8% -1.0% 0.4% 2.3% 3.8%

Cost of Equity - unlevered 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2%

Residual RNOA -6.2% -9.0% -9.1% -7.8% -5.9% -4.3%

Residual Income -4,261 -6,253 -5,549 -4,764 -3,479 -2,522

PV of Interim Residual Income -16,914 Terminal Growth Rate 2.0%

PV of Terminal Value 0

Beginning Net Operating Assets 69,492 COSL Post-tax Cost of Debt 3.4%

Beginning Net Debt / (cash) 30,615 Cost of Equity - Unlevered 8.2%

JV, Associates 681 Cost of Equity - Levered 9.8%

Minorities 87 MacquarieGovernancePremium 0.0%

Equity Value (Rmb, mn) 22,558 WACC 7.9%

Shares Outstanding #, mn 4,772

Equity Value (Rmb/sh) 4.7

Equity Value (HK$/sh) 5.6

Jack-Up Dayrate Flex 0% -39% -24% 7% 83%

2018E JU dayrate US$, '000/day 66 40 50 70 120

2018E Revenue (Rmb, mn) 20,043 18,169 18,890 20,380 24,033

2018E EBITDA (Rmb, mn) 4,451 3,889 4,105 4,552 5,648

2018E EPS (Rmb) -0.04 -0.16 -0.11 -0.02 0.18

2018E EV-EBITDA 12.6x 14.5x 13.7x 12.2x 9.7x

Residual Income (HK$/sh) 5.6 5.2 5.3 5.7 6.4

Semi-Sub Dayrate Flex 0% -46% -19% 15% 103%

2018E semi-sub dayrate US$, '000/day 148 80 120 170 300

2018E Revenue (Rmb, mn) 20,043 19,050 19,633 20,367 22,267

2018E EBITDA (Rmb, mn) 4,451 4,154 4,328 4,549 5,118

2018E EPS (Rmb) -0.04 -0.10 -0.07 -0.02 0.09

2018E EV-EBITDA 12.6x 13.5x 12.9x 12.3x 10.8x


Jack-Up Utilization 0% -36% -10% 5% 11%

2018E JU Utilization 86% 55% 77% 90% 95%

2018E Revenue (Rmb, mn) 20,043 18,313 19,563 20,284 20,572

2018E EBITDA (Rmb, mn) 4,451 3,932 4,307 4,523 4,610

2018E EPS (Rmb) -0.04 -0.15 -0.07 -0.02 -0.01

2018E EV-EBITDA 12.6x 14.4x 13.0x 12.3x 12.1x


Semi-Sub Utilization Flex 0% -43% -23% 25% 53%

2018E Semi Utilization 55% 31% 42% 68% 83%

2018E Revenue (Rmb, mn) 20,043 19,115 19,547 20,583 21,187

2018E EBITDA (Rmb, mn) 4,451 4,173 4,302 4,613 4,795

2018E EPS (Rmb) -0.04 -0.10 -0.07 -0.01 0.03

2018E EV-EBITDA 12.6x 13.5x 13.0x 12.1x 11.6x


Drilling Margin Flex 0% -10% -5% 5% 20%

2018E Drilling EBITDA margin 30% 20% 25% 35% 50%

2018E Revenue (Rmb, mn) 20,043 20,043 20,043 20,043 20,043

2018E EBITDA (Rmb, mn) 4,451 3,571 4,011 4,892 6,213

2018E EPS (Rmb) -0.04 -0.23 -0.14 0.05 0.29

2018E EV-EBITDA 12.6x 16.1x 14.1x 11.3x 8.6x


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10

Fig 22 Global Oilfield Services Valuation – COSL seems fairly valued on EV-EBITDA

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, July 2016. Shares priced on 22-July 2016. Note: COSL valuation based on Macquarie estimates

Stocks mentioned:

CNOOC (883 HK, HK$9.96, Outperform, TP: HK$13.50)

Macquarie ResearchGlobal Oilfield Services Valuation - Liftboats, Offshore Support Vessels, Offshore Drillers

Company Ticker Mcap Reco. 3M ADTV PricePrice

TargetPT Upside

Divi

Yield

P/E

(Consenus)

P/B

(Cons)

ND/

ND&EROE FCF yld

(US$ mn) (US$ mn) (local) (local) 2016E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E 2017E 2017E 2017E

China Oilfield Services 2883 HK 7,010 N 11.3 6.1 5.6 -8% 0.6% 12.9 x 10.5 x nmf 0.9 x 53% -4% -1%

OFFSHORE DRILLERS 0.2% 9.3 x 10.5 x 21.4 x 0.3 x 35% -1% 8%Helmerich & Payne HP US 7,193 UP 114.1 66.58 40.00 -40% 4.2% 18.2 x 12.7 x na 1.8 x net cash -3% 0%

Transocean RIG US 4,415 NR 173.7 12.09 NR NR 0.0% 10.0 x 10.9 x na 0.3 x 29% -2% 2%

Diamond Offshore Drilling DO US 3,336 NR 53.8 24.32 NR NR 0.0% 7.1 x 8.3 x 25.7 x 0.8 x 34% 3% 13%

Ensco International ESV US 2,959 NR 90.0 9.82 NR NR 0.4% 6.6 x 10.2 x 17.9 x 0.4 x 41% 2% 10%

Nabors NBR US 2,687 NR 78.5 9.53 NR NR 2.5% 8.9 x 6.2 x 1.5 x 0.8 x 44% -9% 6%

Rowan Companies RDC US 2,189 NR 57.4 17.45 NR NR 0.0% 6.2 x 10.0 x nmf 0.4 x 32% 1% 13%

Noble Corp. NE US 1,992 NR 89.5 8.19 NR NR 2.6% 10.0 x 10.9 x na 0.3 x 35% -3% 9%

Seadrill SDRL US 1,607 NR 44.3 3.16 NR NR 0.0% 9.7 x 11.8 x 21.4 x 0.2 x 49% 1% 3%

Atwood Oceanics ATW US 789 N 48.6 12.17 9.00 -26% 2.3% 9.6 x 13.6 x 1.5 x 0.2 x 35% -2% -1%

ASIA OFFSHORE MARINE 1.3% 8.9 x 8.0 x 10.1 x 0.6 x 53% 3% 12%Sapura Kencana SAKP MK 2,112 NR 8.7 1.42 NR NR 1.9% 11.3 x 11.2 x 16.3 x 0.7 x 57% 3% 13%

Bumi Armada BAB MK 1,092 OP 5.4 0.75 1.06 +41% 1.3% 8.9 x 7.7 x 10.1 x 0.6 x 47% 6% 16%

Ezion EZI SP 590 OP 3.8 0.39 0.65 +69% 0.0% 7.2 x 5.9 x 4.9 x 0.4 x 53% 8% 12%

UMW O&G UMWOG MK 488 UP 0.3 0.91 0.55 -40% 0.0% 28.6 x 21.9 x na 0.7 x 47% -4% 4%

Aban Offshore ABAN IN 194 NR 7.0 223.35 nmf NR 1.6% 8.2 x 8.0 x na 0.2 x 69% 2% nmf

OFFSHORE SUPPORT VESSELS, LIFTBOATS 7.0% 8.0 x 6.0 x 45.7 x 0.3 x 37% -4% 4%Seacor CKH US 965 NR 7.2 55.74 NR NR na 6.0 x 6.0 x 89.2 x 0.5 x 23% na 12%

Bourbon SA GBB FP 889 NR 0.7 10.58 NR NR 9.5% 8.0 x 4.2 x na 0.7 x 47% -5% 5%

Hornbeck HOS US 303 NR 9.0 8.38 NR NR 0.0% 14.5 x 10.5 x na 0.2 x 36% -4% -6%

Tidewater TDW US 221 NR 11.2 4.70 NR NR 12.4% 14.9 x 14.3 x na 0.1 x 37% -7% 3%

Gulf Marine GMS LN 154 NR 16.9 33.50 NR NR 4.5% 3.0 x 3.1 x 2.3 x 0.3 x 48% 16% na

CHINA ONSHORE OILFIELD SERVICES 0.1% 11.1 x 9.0 x 27.0 x 0.8 x 36% 4% -2%Sinopec OFS 1033 HK 7,830 NR 1.2 1.48 3.42 +131% 0.0% 15.3 x 12.2 x nmf 0.8 x 33% 0% 3%

Jereh 002353 CH 2,746 N 69.4 19.15 17.00 -11% 0.2% 25.9 x 19.5 x 48.5 x 2.2 x net cash 5% -2%

Hilong 1623 HK 186 OP 0.4 0.85 2.00 +135% 2.2% 4.7 x 3.9 x 5.6 x 0.4 x 36% 7% -5%

Anton 3337 HK 226 OP 0.5 0.79 1.30 +65% 0.0% 6.8 x 5.8 x na 0.8 x 50% 3% -2%

RIG BUILDERS, SHIPYARDS 2.5% 11.7 x 9.4 x 11.6 x 0.8 x 39% 8% 12%Mitsubishi HI 7011 JP 14,764 N 69.3 465.80 430.00 -8% 2.5% 5.1 x 4.6 x 11.6 x 0.8 x 27% 8% 4%

Keppel Corp KEP SP 7,458 NR 21.2 5.58 nmf NR 4.6% 11.7 x 11.3 x 8.8 x 0.8 x 34% 9% 7%

Hyundai Heavy Industries 009540 KS 7,091 OP 21.3 106,500 130,000 +22% 0.9% 8.2 x 7.3 x 10.0 x 0.5 x 39% 5% 15%

Sembcorp Marine SMM SP 2,354 NR 5.1 1.53 nmf NR 2.7% 12.8 x 12.6 x 14.9 x 1.2 x 51% 8% 12%

Samsung Heavy Industries 010140 KS 2,144 UP 15.1 10,600 5,000 -53% 2.2% 12.4 x 9.4 x 21.0 x 0.5 x 40% 3% 19%

EV/EBITDA

(consensus)


25 July 2016 11

Fig 23 COSL Financial Summary

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2016

COSL (2883 HK)Neutral

Profit & Loss (Rmb mn) 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Generic Assumptions 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

Drilling 12,040 7,750 8,285 8,807 Rmb/US$ 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.7

Well Services 6,913 6,222 6,844 7,528 HK$/US$ 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8

Marine S&T 2,703 2,680 2,697 2,697 Brent $/bbl 54 45 61 68

Geophysical 1,518 911 911 911

Other 242 100 100 100 Operationals 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

Net Revenues 23,417 17,663 18,837 20,043

Jack-Up Utilization 74% 74% 78% 86%

Drilling 3,582 1,550 2,071 2,642 Semi-Sub Utilization 60% 47% 52% 55%

Well Services 1,205 622 684 903

Marine S&T 685 670 674 728 Jack-Up Dayrate US$ '000/day 94 66 66 66

Geophysical 399 228 228 228 Y-o-Y change -26% -30% 0% 0%

Other -26 -7,750 -50 -50

EBITDA 5,845 -4,680 3,608 4,451 Semi-Sub Dayrate US$ '000/day 296 148 148 148

Y-o-Y change -8% -50% 0% 0%

EBIT 1,631 -9,015 -680 251

Net Interest Expenses -405 -328 -511 -544 Drilling EBITDA Margin 30% 20% 25% 30%

Share of JCE profit 170 100 100 100

Reported Tax -288 0 0 0 Ratio Analysis 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

Net Income Reported 1,074 -9,243 -1,091 -193 EBITDA margin 25% -26% 19% 22%

Clean Net Income 2,098 -2,143 -1,091 -193 EBIT margin 7% -51% -4% 1%

Gearing (ND/ND&E) 33% 50% 53% 52%

Basic EPS (Rmb/sh) 0.23 -1.94 -0.23 -0.04 Interest Cover 8.3 -6.8 5.2 6.4

DPS (Rmb/sh) 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.05

Dividend Payout Ratio 30% -3% -22% -124% Drilling ROA 3% -2% -1% 0%

Well Services ROA 5% 0% 1% 3%

Cashflows (Rmb mn) 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Marine S&T ROA 2% 1% 1% 2%

EBITDA 5,845 -4,680 3,608 4,451 Geophysical ROA 0% -2% -2% -2%

Tax Paid 288 0 0 0 ROA 2% -11% -1% 1%

Changes in Working Capital -263 430 -2,443 -317 ROACE 2% -13% -1% 1%

Other 687 -51 370 -14 ROE 2% -24% -4% -1%

Operating Cashflow 6,556 -4,302 1,535 4,120

Capex -5,105 -3,010 -2,300 -2,300 Valuation Multiples 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

Other 1,789 463 280 247 EV/EBITDA 10.2x -11.8x 15.8x 12.6x

Investing Cashflow -3,316 -2,547 -2,020 -2,053 EV/DACF 10.8x -17.1x 15.3x 12.7x

Dividends Paid -2,290 -324 -239 -239 P/E 34.3x nmf nmf -129.5x

Debt Raised 4,116 0 0 0 P/B 0.8x 0.8x 0.9x 0.9x

Other 1,606 -691 -691 -691 FCF Yield - Enterprise 2% -13% -1% 3%

Financial Cashflow 3,432 -1,015 -929 -929 Dividend Yield 1% 1% 1% 1%

Free Cash Flow: CFO-Capex 1,451 -7,312 -765 1,820 Residual Income 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

CFO-Capex-Interest-Dividend -1,244 -7,964 -1,515 1,037 RNOA -0.8% -1.0% 0.4% 2.3%

Cost of Equity - unlevered 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2%

Balance Sheet (Rmb mn) 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Residual RNOA -9.0% -9.1% -7.8% -5.9%

Cash & Cash Equivalents 12,574 4,710 3,295 4,433 PV of Interim Residual Income -16,914 Kd 3.4%

PP&E 60,388 55,375 53,388 51,487 PV of Terminal Value 0 Ke - unlevered 8.2%

Other Assets 20,563 16,374 16,390 16,801 Beginning Net Operating Assets 69,492 Ke - levered 9.8%

Total Assets 93,525 76,459 73,073 72,720 Beginning Net Debt / (cash) 30,615 WACC 7.9%

Current Liabilities 21,059 20,642 18,585 18,664 Equity Value (Rmb, mn) 22,558

Non-Current Liabilities 25,638 25,638 25,638 25,638 Shares Outstanding #, mn 4,772

Shareholder Equity 46,829 30,179 28,850 28,418 Equity Value (HK$/sh) 5.6

HK$5.60One-Year Price Target:


25 July 2016 12

Macquarie Quant View

The quant model currently holds a strong negative view on China Oilfield

Services. The strongest style exposure is Valuations, indicating this stock

is under-priced in the market relative to its peers. The weakest style

exposure is Earnings Momentum, indicating this stock has received

earnings downgrades and is not well liked by sell side analysts.

Displays where the

company’s ranked based on

the fundamental consensus

Price Target and

Macquarie’s Quantitative

Alpha model.

Two rankings: Local market

(Hong Kong) and Global

sector (Energy)

347/550 Global rank in

Energy

% of BUY recommendations 27% (4/15)

Number of Price Target downgrades 0

Number of Price Target upgrades 5

Macquarie Alpha Model ranking Factors driving the Alpha Model

A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score

(higher is better).

For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution

to the current overall Alpha score.

Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator Drivers of Stock Return

The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions

signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction

revisions. Current score shown below.

Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes

in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple.

What drove this Company in the last 5 years How it looks on the Alpha model

Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company’s

returns over the last 5 years.

A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is

better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market.

Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and

screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group ([email protected])

Fu

nd

am

en

tals

Quant

Local market rank Global sector rank

Attractive

-2.1

-1.4

-1.3

-1.3

-1.1

-0.8

-0.5

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Ensco International

Nabors Industries

Diamond Offshore Drilling…

Transocean

China Oilfield Services

Seadrill

Helmerich & Payne

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Ensco International

Nabors Industries


Transocean


Seadrill

Helmerich & Payne

Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings

Momentum

Price

Momentum

Quality

-0.9

0.3

0.5

0.2

-1.2

-0.1

-0.2

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Ensco International

Nabors Industries


Transocean


Seadrill

Helmerich & Payne

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%

Ensco International

Nabors Industries


Transocean


Seadrill

Helmerich & Payne

Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return

-33%

-28%

-27%

-25%

22%

24%

50%

58%

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

⇐ Negatives Positives ⇒

Turnover (USD) 250 Day

Turnover(USD) 125 Day

ROIC 12m Fwd

Turnover (USD) 20 Day

Price to Earnings FY1

EV/EBITDA FY0

Net Buybacks to Mkt Cap

Sales to EV FY0

0 1

Technicals & TradingRisk

LiquidityCapital & Funding

QualityPrice Momentum

Earnings MomentumProfitability

Growth

ValuationAlpha Model Score

0.57-0.78

-1.62 0.08

NaN-0.65

-0.85NaN-0.50

-0.19-1.07

0 1

Normalized

Score

0 50 100

Percentile relative

to sector(/550)

0 50 100

Percentile relative

to market(/717)


25 July 2016 13

Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield

Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie – South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return

Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only

Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from

Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 June 2016

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 45.17% 56.00% 36.36% 43.16% 63.39% 45.91% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 6.27% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Neutral 36.21% 28.59% 40.26% 50.38% 29.46% 36.96% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 6.33% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Underperform 18.62% 15.41% 23.38% 6.46% 7.14% 17.12% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 5.38% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

2883 HK vs HSI, & rec history

(all figures in HKD currency unless noted)

Note: Recommendation timeline – if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.


12-month target price methodology

2883 HK: HK$5.60 based on a Residual Income methodology

Company-specific disclosures: 2883 HK: Macquarie Capital Limited makes a market in the securities of China Oilfield Services Ltd. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 07-Mar-2016 2883 HK Underperform HK$5.50 15-Dec-2015 2883 HK Neutral HK$6.60 28-Aug-2015 2883 HK Outperform HK$11.00 01-Apr-2015 2883 HK Underperform HK$8.50 11-Dec-2014 2883 HK Underperform HK$11.00 31-Oct-2014 2883 HK Underperform HK$13.50 27-Aug-2014 2883 HK Outperform HK$26.00 08-Jan-2014 2883 HK Underperform HK$18.00 29-Oct-2013 2883 HK Neutral HK$19.50 20-Aug-2013 2883 HK Neutral HK$18.00

Target price risk disclosures: 2883 HK: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures.

Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Ltd total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group’s Investment Banking activities. General disclaimers: Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd; Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd; Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc; Macquarie Capital Limited and Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities Branch; Macquarie Capital Securities


25 July 2016 14

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Asia Research Head of Equity Research

Peter Redhead (Global – Head) (852) 3922 4836

Jake Lynch (Asia – Head) (852) 3922 3583

David Gibson (Japan – Head) (813) 3512 7880

Conrad Werner (ASEAN – Head) (65) 6601 0182

Automobiles/Auto Parts

Janet Lewis (China) (852) 3922 5417

Zhixuan Lin (China) (8621) 2412 9006

Leo Lin (China) (852) 3922 1098

Takuo Katayama (Japan) (813) 3512 7856

James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661

Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084

Lyall Taylor (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8489

Financials

Scott Russell (Asia) (852) 3922 3567

Dexter Hsu (China, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7530

Elaine Zhou (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3278

Keisuke Moriyama (Japan) (813) 3512 7476

Leo Nakada (Japan) (813) 3512 6050

Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643

Suresh Ganapathy (India) (9122) 6720 4078

Thomas Stoegner (65) 6601 0854 (Malaysia, Singapore)


Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892

Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728

Conglomerates

David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291

Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182


Consumer and Gaming

Linda Huang (Asia, China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4068

Zibo Chen (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1130

Terence Chang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3581

Satsuki Kawasaki (Japan) (813) 3512 7870

Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953

KJ Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9935

Stella Li (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7514

Amit Sinha (India) (9122) 6720 4085

Fransisca Widjaja (65) 6601 0847 (Indonesia, Singapore)

Hendy Soegiarto (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8369

Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Chalinee Congmuang (Thailand) (662) 694 7993

Emerging Leaders

Jake Lynch (Asia) (852) 3922 3583

Aditya Suresh (Asia) (852) 3922 1265

Timothy Lam (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1086

Mike Allen (Japan) (813) 3512 7859

Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953

Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Marcus Yang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7532

Conrad Werner (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0182

Industrials

Janet Lewis (Asia) (852) 3922 5417

Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082

Leo Lin (China) (852) 3922 1098

Kenjin Hotta (Japan) (813) 3512 7871

James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087


Internet, Media and Software

Wendy Huang (Asia, China) (852) 3922 3378

David Gibson (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7880

Hillman Chan (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3716

Nathan Ramler (Japan) (813) 3512 7875

Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659

Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088

Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals

Polina Diyachkina (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7886

Aditya Suresh (Asia, China) (852) 3922 1265

Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669

Duke Suttikulpanich (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0148

Isaac Chow (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982

Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare

Abhishek Singhal (India) (9122) 6720 4086

Wei Li (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 5494

Property

Tuck Yin Soong (Asia, Singapore) (65) 6601 0838


Raymond Liu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3629

Wilson Ho (China) (852) 3922 3248

William Montgomery (Japan) (813) 3512 7864


Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088

Aiman Mohamad (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8986

Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893

Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727

Resources / Metals and Mining

Polina Diyachkina (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7886

Coria Chow (China) (852) 3922 1181

Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669

Stanley Liong (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8381

Technology

Damian Thong (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7877

George Chang (Japan) (813) 3512 7854

Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641

Allen Chang (Greater China) (852) 3922 1136

Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7512

Patrick Liao (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7515

Louis Cheng (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7526

Kaylin Tsai (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7523

Telecoms

Nathan Ramler (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7875

Danny Chu (Greater China) (852) 3922 4762

Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659

Chirag Jain (India) (9122) 6720 4352

Prem Jearajasingam (ASEAN) (603) 2059 8989

Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893

Transport & Infrastructure

Janet Lewis (Asia) (852) 3922 5417


Azita Nazrene (ASEAN) (603) 2059 8980

Utilities & Renewables

Alan Hon (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3589


Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989

Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Commodities

Colin Hamilton (Global) (44 20) 3037 4061

Ian Roper (65) 6601 0698

Jim Lennon (44 20) 3037 4271

Lynn Zhao (8621) 2412 9035

Matthew Turner (44 20) 3037 4340

Economics

Peter Eadon-Clarke (Global) (813) 3512 7850

Larry Hu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3778

Tanvee Gupta Jain (India) (9122) 6720 4355

Quantitative / CPG

Gurvinder Brar (Global) (44 20) 3037 4036

Woei Chan (Asia) (852) 3922 1421

Danny Deng (Asia) (852) 3922 4646

Per Gullberg (Asia) (852) 3922 1478

Strategy/Country

Viktor Shvets (Asia, Global) (852) 3922 3883

Chetan Seth (Asia) (852) 3922 4769


Erwin Sanft (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1516

Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) (813) 3512 7850

Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643

Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7512




Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182

Alastair Macdonald (Thailand) (662) 694 7753

Find our research at Macquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/research Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com Bloomberg: MAC GO Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com Email [email protected] for access

Asia Sales Regional Heads of Sales

Miki Edelman (Global) (1 212) 231 6121

Jeff Evans (Boston) (1 617) 598 2508

Jeffrey Shiu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2061

Sandeep Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4101

Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41 22) 818 7712

Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8486

Nick Cant (Japan) (65) 6601 0210

John Jay Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9988

Nik Hadi (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888

Eric Roles (New York) (1 212) 231 2559

Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0861

Regional Heads of Sales cont’d

Paul Colaco (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5003

Amelia Mehta (Singapore) (65) 6601 0211

Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601

Ben Musgrave (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4882

Christina Lee (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4873

Sales Trading

Adam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002

Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555

Sales Trading cont’d

Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888

Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813

Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555

Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555

Justin Morrison (Singapore) (65) 6601 0288

Daniel Clarke (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7580

Brendan Rake (Thailand) (662) 694 7707

Mike Keen (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4905

This publication was disseminated on 25 July 2016 at 08:03 UTC.

Documents

HONG KONG China Oilfield Services - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/HK_RES/STOCK/2016/7/25/e44da543-dd96-427b-be91-c... · Macquarie Research China Oilfield Services 25 July 2016