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The future of climate science A public forum with world-leading IPCC climate researchers #climate2014 www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014

Home | University of Exeter - The future of climate scienceFIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP o 0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25

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Page 1: Home | University of Exeter - The future of climate scienceFIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP o 0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25

The future of

climate science A public forum with world-leading IPCC

climate researchers

#climate2014 www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014

Page 2: Home | University of Exeter - The future of climate scienceFIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP o 0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25

#climate2014 www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014

Professor Thomas Stocker

Co-Chair of Working Group I

#climate2014 www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014

Page 3: Home | University of Exeter - The future of climate scienceFIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP o 0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25

1

Observations

Understanding

Future

www.climatechange2013.org

Page 4: Home | University of Exeter - The future of climate scienceFIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP o 0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25

Warming of the climate system

is unequivocal

IPC

C 2

013, F

ig. S

PM

.1b

Temperature Difference 1901 to 2012 based on trend (°C)

Page 5: Home | University of Exeter - The future of climate scienceFIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP o 0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25

Warming of the climate system

is unequivocal

Change in E

nerg

y C

onte

nt

(10

21 J

oule

)

1980 1990 2000 2010

300

200

0

100

-100 1970

Page 6: Home | University of Exeter - The future of climate scienceFIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP o 0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25

atmosphere, land, ocean

extreme events

water cycle

global mean sea level

Human influence on the

climate system is clear.

sea ice, glaciers, ice sheets

Cause

Worldwide Effects

Page 7: Home | University of Exeter - The future of climate scienceFIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP o 0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25

IPC

C 2

013, F

ig. S

PM

.8

2°C world

Page 8: Home | University of Exeter - The future of climate scienceFIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP o 0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25

IPC

C 2

013, F

ig. S

PM

.8

4.5°C world 2°C world

Page 9: Home | University of Exeter - The future of climate scienceFIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP o 0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25

IPC

C 2

013, T

FE

.2, F

ig. 2

+19 cm

+98 cm

Page 10: Home | University of Exeter - The future of climate scienceFIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP o 0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25

IPC

C 2

013, F

ig. S

PM

.8

Today we have a choice.

4.5°C world 2°C world

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www.climatechange2013.org

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1 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 ......Differencing: Nonseasonal Order=1, Seasonal Order=1 Sample Autocorrelations of the Residuals 【鉱工業】1-1.0 -0.8 -0.6

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