Home-Home_SATS.ppt: 11/15-16/99Figure 1 G.A. / SATS Research NASA -- FAA General Aviation R&D National General Aviation Roadmap Small Aircraft Transportation

Home-Home_SATS.ppt: 11/15-16/99 Figure 1

G.A. / SATS Research

NASA -- FAA General Aviation R&DNational General Aviation Roadmap

Small Aircraft Transportation SystemPresented to

Home-Home Conference

NASA Langley Research CenterNovember 15-16, 1999

Bruce J. HolmesNASA General Aviation Program Office



Outline

• Smart Air Travel System (SATS) ConceptSmart Air Travel System (SATS) Concept

• National Market Opportunities and ChallengesNational Market Opportunities and Challenges

• Suggested Industry ActionsSuggested Industry Actions

• Smart Air Travel System (SATS) ConceptSmart Air Travel System (SATS) Concept

• National Market Opportunities and ChallengesNational Market Opportunities and Challenges

• Suggested Industry ActionsSuggested Industry Actions

The “Golden Rule” of the information age is The “Golden Rule” of the information age is “Time is the Scarce Commodity.”“Time is the Scarce Commodity.”

Early in the 21st century, Early in the 21st century, the demand for personal transportation will soar beyond supply.the demand for personal transportation will soar beyond supply.

The Millennial Opportunity: The Millennial Opportunity: SATS creates more time for more people.SATS creates more time for more people.



Solving 21st Century Transportation Challenges

The Smart Air Travel SystemThe Smart Air Travel Systemis a safe travel alternative,is a safe travel alternative,

freeing people and products from today’s system delays,freeing people and products from today’s system delays,By creating access to more communities in less time.By creating access to more communities in less time.



National General Aviation Roadmap Goal(Revision Draft in Review)

Market Penetration

0

25

50

75

100

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

SATSAccessibility

(% of Public Use

AirportsEquipped)

>5,400 Landing Facilities2022

~1,000 Landing Facilities2007

> 90% Market Served

25% Market Served

” Reduce public travel times by half in ten years and two-thirds in 25 years,”(at equivalent highway system costs,

increasing mobility for all of the nation's communitiesthrough advanced small aircraft transportation).

” Reduce public travel times by half in ten years and two-thirds in 25 years,”(at equivalent highway system costs,

increasing mobility for all of the nation's communitiesthrough advanced small aircraft transportation).



Innovation and Cost Life Cycles

Cost & Market Penetration Life Cycles

0.1% 1% 10%

50%

90% 99% 99.9%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 7 14 21 28 35 42

Time, Years

Mark

et

Pen

etr

ati

on

, %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Cost

Red

ucti

on

, %

(20%

per

dou

blin

g o

f volu

me)

Innovation Growth Maturity

Young, Urban, ProfessionalLeader Market

Middle-Class, Wage-EarnerFollower Market

Older, Rural, Lower-IncomeDie-Hard Market



Life Cycle of the Piston Aircraft Market

Total Piston SalesCompared with the Theoretical "S" Curve

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Year

Cumulative Piston Sales

Actual Total Piston Sales

Model regressed from '51-'95

Itzhak Gartenberg, Yale UniversityLangley Aerospace Research Summer Scholar, 1999



Life Cycles for Three GenerationsPiston Aircraft

Annual Sales Behaviorfor Three Generations of Piston Aircraft

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Year

AnnualPistonSales

Actual Growthrate

First, Second,Third GenerationGrowth ratesGrowth rate forfirst life cycle

Growth rate forsecond life cycle

Growth rate forthird life cycle

Itzhak Gartenberg, Yale UniversityLangley Aerospace Research Summer Scholar, 1999



The “Atomic Structure” of Business Innovation Cycles

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

RelativeMarketGrowth

10%

10%

10%

10%

90%

90%

90%

Cars Displace Horses

Propliners Displace Cars

Jetliners Displace Props

SmallSmallAircraftAircraft

TransportationTransportationSystem?System?

Mo

del

T

Ass

emb

ly L

ine

Jet

Tra

nsp

ort

s

90%

Fir

st V

OR

s

VD

L, A

CR

DC

-3

GP

S

GA

P E

ng

ines

(R)evolutions in Higher Speed TravelWhat is Next? More Speed to More Destinations



Small Aircraft Transportation System Mobility“. . .doorstep-to-destination at four times the speed of highways. . .”

Airlines

General Aviation

PHF

PITDAY

Comparison of Average Speeds for GA and Airlines

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

GCD Distance, s.m.

Average Speed Over GCD

Distance, mph Hub-Spoke

GeneralAviation

SATS

• Hub-Spoke: OAG times for 28 destinations

• General Aviation: time-optimized flight plans

• Including intermodal penalties (:45 +:45 for airline & :30+:30 for GA departure & arrivals)

• No GA destination benefit (for proximity of airports)

• SATS with new GAP engines: costs equal current General Aviation at 2 times the speed.

Highways

SATS reduces travel times, while highways and Hub-and-spoke travel timeswill continue to increase.



SATS Increases Accessibility and Mobility(“. . .creating access to more communities in less time. . .”)

Fully utilized 5,400 public-use near-all-weather landing facilities can increase theoretical NAS Throughput by more than an order of magnitude

Of 5,400 public-use airports, only 715 (13%) have precision instrument approaches (ILS)

Expanded Accessibility Accessibility to several times more destinations

Improved MobilityMobility saving more travelers more time



Current States Roles in SATS Planning

• SATS “Leader” States Committed to Support Program Planning

1. Virginia

2. Florida

3. Nebraska

4. North Dakota

5. Oklahoma

6. Kansas

7. Illinois

8. Indiana

9. Wisconsin

10. Washington

• Aerospace States Association SATS Resolution, July, 1999

• Leveraged Research Funding:– EPSCoR funding leveraged (e.g.,

Nebraska, Kansas)

– NASA Space Grant Program potential leveraging

– SBIR / STTR leveraging



Technology Challenges -- 2007

• Onboard Cyber-Onboard Cyber-TutorTutor

• InterNet TrainingInterNet Training• 50% savings in time 50% savings in time

and costand cost

• <$30 per lb. composites, <$30 per lb. composites, assembledassembled

• Optimized ice, Optimized ice, lightning, & crash lightning, & crash protectionprotection

• Vertical FlightVertical Flight

• <<$50,000 Turbine<<$50,000 Turbine• <$15,000 Compr.-Ignition<$15,000 Compr.-Ignition• Quieter propulsionQuieter propulsion• Non-hydrocarbon optionsNon-hydrocarbon options

Close the Gap BetweenClose the Gap BetweenTransportation Demand and SupplyTransportation Demand and Supply

Close the Gap BetweenClose the Gap BetweenTransportation Demand and SupplyTransportation Demand and Supply

• ““Smart” Airports (Mini-LAAS, Datalink FIS, Smart” Airports (Mini-LAAS, Datalink FIS, TIS, Airport Databus/CIS Standards) TIS, Airport Databus/CIS Standards)

• ADS-B-based EnRoute & Terminal Free Flight ADS-B-based EnRoute & Terminal Free Flight at non-towered, non-radar airportsat non-towered, non-radar airports

• ””Virtual” TerPsVirtual” TerPs• Simultaneous Non-Interfering (SNI) Simultaneous Non-Interfering (SNI)

ApproachesApproaches• Satellite-based Comm-Nav-SurveillanceSatellite-based Comm-Nav-Surveillance

• Decoupled controlsDecoupled controls• Envelope protectionEnvelope protection• Ride qualityRide quality• Affordable software Affordable software

certificationcertification• Virtual Highways in the Virtual Highways in the

Sky/Electronic VFRSky/Electronic VFR• Satcomm data radiosSatcomm data radios

Airframe & Configuration Propulsion Systems

Pilot Training

NAS Infrastructure Single-Crew Flight DeckSystems & Operations



Technology Investments

• Intermodal Transportation Systems Engineering – Program System Engineering

– SATS Space Grant Partnerships

– National Public Outreach

• Digital Airspace Infrastructure– Airborne Internet

– Smart Landing Facilities

– Runway Independent Aircraft Operations

– Showcase Demonstrations

• Robust Air Vehicles– Autoflight

– Affordable Manufacturing

– Ultra-Propulsion

– Wireless Cockpit

– Cyber-Tutor



Candidate Federal-States SATS Partnership Roles

DOCU.S. Innovation

Partnership FacilitationEPSCoT Collaboration

DOCU.S. Innovation

Partnership FacilitationEPSCoT Collaboration

IndustryCompetitive Subsystem Technologies

Industry StandardsTransportation Service Business Infrastructure

Non-Profit for Partnership Administration

IndustryCompetitive Subsystem Technologies

Industry StandardsTransportation Service Business Infrastructure

Non-Profit for Partnership Administration

NASAVehicle & Infrastructure Technologies R&T

Organize & Coordinate PartnershipsIntegrate Requirements

NASAVehicle & Infrastructure Technologies R&T

Organize & Coordinate PartnershipsIntegrate Requirements

StatesAviation System/Airport Master Plans

SATS Airport EquipageSBIR, EPSCoR Collaboration

StatesAviation System/Airport Master Plans

SATS Airport EquipageSBIR, EPSCoR Collaboration

UniversitiesSATS Policy, Impact Analyses

NASA Space GrantCollaboration

SATS R&D

UniversitiesSATS Policy, Impact Analyses

NASA Space GrantCollaboration

SATS R&D

FAA Certification & Regulation

AirportsAir Traffic Services

Flight StandardsR&D

FAA Certification & Regulation

AirportsAir Traffic Services

Flight StandardsR&D

DOTOne-DOT Initiative

ITS Synergies

DOTOne-DOT Initiative

ITS Synergies



Airspace & Airports InvestmentsAirspace & Airports Investments

Vehicle InvestmentsVehicle Investments

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2025

“. . .four timesHighway

speeds . . .”

SATS Program Description



SATS ProgramSATS Program



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2025

Infrastructure TechnologiesInfrastructure TechnologiesDevelop Highway in the Sky Approach technology for use at all runway ends for the Nation’s public use landing facilities.


speeds . . .”


Showcase Demonstrations2003: Virginia, Florida2005: Leader States2007: Regional Demonstrations



SATS ProgramSATS Program



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2025

Infrastructure TechnologiesInfrastructure TechnologiesDevelop Highway in the Sky Approach technology for use at all runway ends for the Nation’s public use landing facilities.


speeds . . .”

Vehicle TechnologiesVehicle TechnologiesReduce the AGATE/GAP-derived vehicle life-cycle cost by 25%(minimum success) to 50% (stretch goal) from AGATE Reference C vehicle.

Showcase Demonstrations2003: Virginia, Florida2005: Leader States2007: Regional Demonstrations

Enable State, Local, and Federalpublic policy decisions to deploy SATS capabilities to 25% of public use facilities,based on consumer/community response toShowcase Technology Demonstration Projects.




Action Planning

SATS is:SATS is:• ““Smart” airports designed for transportation utility (= economic development)Smart” airports designed for transportation utility (= economic development)• Highway In The Sky (HITS) guidance to virtually every runway end in AmericaHighway In The Sky (HITS) guidance to virtually every runway end in America• Single-crew systems and operating procedures with two-crew levels of safety Single-crew systems and operating procedures with two-crew levels of safety

and mission reliabilityand mission reliability• LearJet-like performance for Mooney-like pricesLearJet-like performance for Mooney-like prices



Action Planning

SATS is:SATS is:• ““Smart” airports designed for transportation utilitySmart” airports designed for transportation utility• Highway In The Sky (HITS) guidance to virtually every runway end in AmericaHighway In The Sky (HITS) guidance to virtually every runway end in America• Learjet-like performance for Mooney-like pricesLearjet-like performance for Mooney-like prices• Single-crew systems and operating procedures with two-crew levels of safety Single-crew systems and operating procedures with two-crew levels of safety

and mission reliabilityand mission reliability

Strategy:Strategy:• Infrastructure will create pull for demand and productsInfrastructure will create pull for demand and products• States are willing to invest in infrastructureStates are willing to invest in infrastructure• Federal sector can be persuaded to investFederal sector can be persuaded to invest



Action Planning

SATS is:SATS is:• ““Smart” airports designed for transportation utilitySmart” airports designed for transportation utility• Highway In The Sky (HITS) guidance to virtually every runway end in AmericaHighway In The Sky (HITS) guidance to virtually every runway end in America• LearJet-like performance for Mooney-like pricesLearJet-like performance for Mooney-like prices• Single-crew systems and operating procedures with two-crew levels of safety Single-crew systems and operating procedures with two-crew levels of safety

and mission reliabilityand mission reliability

Strategy:Strategy:• Infrastructure will create pull for demand and productsInfrastructure will create pull for demand and products• States are willing to invest in infrastructureStates are willing to invest in infrastructure• Federal sector can be persuaded to investFederal sector can be persuaded to invest

Suggested Actions:Suggested Actions:• Establish strategic action plan between manufacturing and airports sectors Establish strategic action plan between manufacturing and airports sectors

(PEARC-like)(PEARC-like)• Industry engage Leader States directly in advocacy for public policies Industry engage Leader States directly in advocacy for public policies

supporting SATSsupporting SATS• Support and engage in NASA and FAA SATS partnership initiativeSupport and engage in NASA and FAA SATS partnership initiative



Conclusions

““The Small Aircraft Transportation System is a safe travel alternativeThe Small Aircraft Transportation System is a safe travel alternativeThat frees people and products from transportation system delaysThat frees people and products from transportation system delays

Creating access to more communities in less time.” Creating access to more communities in less time.”

• SATS is an investment that preserves America’s options for mobility and accessibility in an era of saturation of the highway and hub-and-spoke systems.

• SATS investments build on a solid track record of accomplishment by American industry working in partnership with NASA and the FAA.

• SATS strategies position the U.S. General Aviation industry for significant future growth potential.



Recommendations

““The Small Aircraft Transportation System is a safe travel alternativeThe Small Aircraft Transportation System is a safe travel alternativeThat frees people and products from transportation system delaysThat frees people and products from transportation system delays

Creating access to more communities in less time.” Creating access to more communities in less time.”

• Industry must influence technology-based infrastructure development and deployment.

• States need to see appropriate evidence of industry intentions regarding new transportation products and services.

• Industry must engage in public demonstration and education of new SATS transportation service concepts.



The Small Aircraft Transportation System is a safe travel alternativeThe Small Aircraft Transportation System is a safe travel alternativefreeing people and products from transportation system delays,freeing people and products from transportation system delays,

by creating access to more communities in less time.by creating access to more communities in less time.



Demand Will Soon Exceed Supply

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Capacity limit Transportation demand



All-Weather Accessibility Means Economic Development

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14E

con

om

ic B

ene

fit,

Eco

no

mic

Be

nefit

,M

illio

ns o

f Do

llars

Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs

VFR Airport,VFR Airport,Runway < 5,500 ftRunway < 5,500 ft

VFR Airport,VFR Airport,Runway > 5,500 ftRunway > 5,500 ft

IFR Airport,IFR Airport,Runway > 5,500 ftRunway > 5,500 ft

VFR - Visual Flight RulesVFR - Visual Flight RulesIFR - Instrument Flight RulesIFR - Instrument Flight Rules

State of Michigan StudyState of Michigan Study



Resolution of the Aerospace States Association

• RESOLUTION REGARDING THE PROPOSED

• SAFE SMALL AIRCRAFT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM (SATS)

• WHEREAS a variety of forces are converging to reduce the effectiveness of the nation's existing highway and hub-spoke air transport system to meet the growing needs of short distance, inter and intra-state travel; and

• WHEREAS these forces include the maturing of the hub-spoke air transport system, the increasing gridlock on the nation's highways, and the increasing value of human time; and

• WHEREAS the nation has an existing infrastructure of 17,000 airports for small, General Aviation Aircraft, of which at least 5,000 could be modified to meet the nation's emerging short distance transportation needs; and

• WHEREAS the Federal Government, acting through NASA, has undertaken cooperative technology development efforts with the nation's General Aviation industry to develop a new era of aircraft capable of effectively using these 5,000 airports; and

• WHEREAS the investment in, and control of ground infrastructure associated with such airports is under the jurisdiction of the nation's State and local authorities; and

• WHEREAS the Federal Government has offered to develop, with State governments, the means to upgrade those 5,000 airports with new capabilities, such as Global Positioning Systems (GPS), and link them together into a system to be known as the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS); and

• WHEREAS the development of a SATS has the potential to generate transportation-driven economic development benefits; and

• WHEREAS the coordinated development of a SATS would be of substantial benefit to the State governments in meeting the transportation needs of their citizens; and

• WHEREAS it is the purpose of the Aerospace States Associations to identify, support, and assist in the implementation of aerospace policies which involve coordination between the Federal and State governments,

• NOW THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the Aerospace States Association endorses and supports efforts by the Federal Government to undertake the planning and implementation associated with the creation of a Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS).

• Resolved this 19th day of July, 1999 by a unanimous vote of the members voting.

• The Honorable Joseph E. Kernan (Lt. Governor, Indiana)

• Chair



NASA & FAA Collaboration in GA R&D Investments

• AGATE New Aircraft

• GAP New Engines

• HeliSTAR (1996 Atlanta Olympics) Free Flight

• Aviation Safety Program Safety Intervention Technologies

• Capstone (Alaska) Airspace, Procedures & CNS

• Cargo Airlines Ohio River Valley ADS-B

• Safer Skies Safety Intervention Procedures

• 2002 Olympics (Salt Lake) Airspace, Procedures & CNS

• Low Altitude Infrastructure (Gulf of Mexico) EnRoute & Terminal Procedures

for low altitude infrastructure

• SATS Aircraft & Infrastructure

Lead

Documents

Home-Home_SATS.ppt: 11/15-16/99Figure 1 G.A. / SATS Research NASA -- FAA General Aviation R&D National General Aviation Roadmap Small Aircraft Transportation