Incorporating Drought Information into Wildland Fire Management Applications: Recent Research and Tool Development in California and Nevada

Dan McEvoy, Desert Research Institute and Western Regional Climate Center, Reno, NV

Despite a clear link between drought and wildfire, there is currently a lack of information for stakeholders at the regional and local levels for improved wildfire risk management using drought early warning information. Fire managers and other specialized fire professionals, such as Incident Meteorologists, will increasingly need to effectively use drought information in forecasts of fire behavior at fire incidents, and in long-term planning (i.e., seasonal fire potential outlooks) as the climate continues to warm along with shifts in the timing and duration of fire seasons. This presentation will highlight recent efforts to incorporate drought-wildfire linkages into the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System. Our research finds that drought indices which are both multi-scalar and incorporate evaporative demand are most strongly correlated to fuel moisture and key results will be presented. Testing of the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) was conducted by Predictive Services in Northern California during the 2018 fire season and feedback will be summarized. Finally, I will summarize web tools that have been developed (and some that are still in development) to access EDDI, other drought indices, and remote sensing data (often with global coverage) that can potentially benefit wildland fire management in Alaska. This will focus on EDDI tools developed at NOAA’s Physical Science Division and Climate Engine (app.climateengine.org) developed jointly between the Desert Research Institute and University of Idaho.

AFSC and ACCAP joint presentation/webinarMonday, August 12, 2019

1100 AKDTRoom 407 IARC, UAF

Or register for the webinar at: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5087932183823719435

Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) spatial percentiles and timeseries during the 2018 northern California wildfires. (a) 1-month EDDI percentiles ending 8 November, 2018, (b) 6-month EDDI percentiles ending 8 November, 2018, and (c) 2-month EDDI percentiles ending 23 July, 2018. Black circle in (a) and (b) denotes ignition point of the Camp Fire and black circle in (c) denotes ignition point of the Carr Fire. (d) Daily time series of 1-month EDDI at the Camp Fire (orange line) and 2-month EDDI at the Carr Fire (blue line). Vertical lines in (d) denote ignition date of the Carr Fire (07/23) and Camp Fire (11/08). Nauslar et al. 2019, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (accepted).

MODIS Terra Daily Land Surface Temperature Anomaly (deg C) for the period May 16 to July 14, 2019. Image generated by Climate Engine. Link to interactive map on Climate Engine website: https://climengine.page.link/RqhN.