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MARKET UPDATE
DECEMBER
2015
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave.
Sidney, BC V8L 1X9
250-656-0911
WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012 372 497 570 586 659 637 523 462 419 373 366 283
2013 294 394 483 615 659 664 583 540 487 512 412 355
2014 342 412 575 664 714 680 681 609 565 602 465 389
2015 351 542 734 840 905 910 796 741 704 734 573
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000N
um
ber
of
Sale
s
Monthly Sales Comparison Greater Victoria - (2012-2015)
573
Historically, November in the Greater Victoria Area marks the beginning of the winter cooling period in our real estate market. This year is no different, sales have dropped
from October’s 734 sales to only 573. However, even with this dramatic drop in sales relative to October, November has still not seen sales figures this high since 2009. Overall, 2015 has been a banner year here in the capital area with total annual sales already reach-ing 7,830. We still have one more month left in 2015 and we have already surpassed the annual sales numbers for every year going back to 2009. It is predicted that over 4 billion dollars of real estate will transact here in the Greater Victoria Area this year. Looking back, 2007 was the only other year we have ever recorded total sales values over 4 billion!
Active listing numbers have also dropped significantly from last year. At the end of Novem-ber, there were a total of 2,952 MLS listing available. This compared with 3,631 from this same period in 2014. With only four months of inventory according to the absorption rate, we are certainly experiencing a “Sellers Market”.
The benchmark price for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $517,900 in October, up from $477,000 this same time last year. Condos and Townhouses are up as well compared to this time last year with benchmark prices of $304,200 and $415,400. On the peninsula, the September benchmark price for a single family home in each was $676,400 in North Saanich, $474,800 in Sidney, and $531,700 in Central Saanich. In the luxury segment, there were 24 sales in the $1M to $2M price range, but only one other sale above $2M for approximately $3.8M in Uplands.
2015’s lower inventory, high consumer confidence, rising prices and ease of financing have all contributed to it being a stellar year. We hope you have a wonderful holiday season!
CAPITAL REGION SALES
An absorption rate is the rate at which avail-able homes are in a specific market area during a given period of time.
This is calculated by dividing the average number of sales into the number of homes currently on the market.
The rate shows how many months it will take to exhaust the supply of homes. A value be-tween 5 and 6 months is considered to indi-cate a healthy, balanced market. A value over 6 is considered a Buyers market, and values under 5 are generally a Sellers market.M
ON
TH
S O
F IN
VE
NT
OR
Y
6
5
4
3
7
8
BALANCED
BUYERMARKET
SELLERMARKET
HOW TO INTERPRET ABSORPTION RATES
8.5 9.1
9.4 9.8 10.0
9.4 8.9 8.8
9.2 9.5 9.7 9.6
10.6
11.5 11.9
11.2 10.5
9.3
8.4
7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.4
7.9
9.0 9.3
9.6
9.2
8.3
7.4
6.6 6.5 6.1 6.0
5.8
6.6 7.2 7.3 7.1
6.4
5.6 5.0
4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Mon
ths
of Inv
ento
ry
Absorption Rate Greater Victoria Area - (2012-2015)
2012 2013 2014 2015
SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED
North Saanich Central Saanich SidneyListed Sold Listed Sold Listed Sold
$0 – $499K 4 0 1 4 9 7
$500K – $799K 16 5 19 13 9 1
$800K – $999K 6 0 9 0 0 0
$1000K – $1999K 17 2 10 0 1 0
$2000K + 9 0 10 0 3 0
CONDOS & TOWNHOMES
PENINSULA Listed Sold
$0 – $199K 12 4
$200K – $399K 51 5
$400K – $799K 30 4
$800K – $999K 4 0
$1000K + 1 1
MANUFACTURED
PENINSULA Listed Sold
$0 – $99K 2 0
$100K – $149K 5 2
$150K – $199K 2 1
$200K – $249K 0 2
$250K + 2 2
SFD WATERFRONT
PENINSULA Listed Sold
$0 – $999K 5 1
$1000K – $1499K 8 1
$1500K – $1999K 3 0
$2000K – $2999K 6 0
$3000K + 7 0
LOTS & LAND
PENINSULA Listed Sold
$0 – $299K 3 0
$300K – $499K 22 3
$500K – $699K 4 1
$700K – $999K 9 0
$1000K + 8 0
“Listed” : The number of MLS listings presently on the market at the end of the month indicated.“Sold” : The number of MLS listings with unconditional offers in the month indicated.
PENINSULAINVENTORY VS SALES
(By Price Range) - November 2015
8.5 9.1
9.4 9.8 10.0
9.4 8.9 8.8
9.2 9.5 9.7 9.6
10.6
11.5 11.9
11.2 10.5
9.3
8.4
7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.4
7.9
9.0 9.3
9.6
9.2
8.3
7.4
6.6 6.5 6.1 6.0
5.8
6.6 7.2 7.3 7.1
6.4
5.6 5.0
4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
Septem
ber
October
Novem
ber
Decem
berM
onth
s of
Invento
ry
Absorption Rate Greater Victoria Area - (2012-2015)
2012 2013 2014 2015
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months)
Active Listings Number of Sales
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012 372 497 570 586 659 637 523 462 419 373 366 283
2013 294 394 483 615 659 664 583 540 487 512 412 355
2014 342 412 575 664 714 680 681 609 565 602 465 389
2015 351 542 734 840 905 910 796 741 704 734 573
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Num
ber
of
Sale
s Monthly Sales Comparison
Greater Victoria - (2012-2015)
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
3.66
n/a
3.33
n/a
1.45
3.67
1.91
0.83
2.43
5.00
3.33 3.33
Absorption Rates - Saanich Peninsula November 2015
North Saanich Sidney Central Saanich
1.58
0.56
1.57 1.38
3.89
1.32
1.75
2.43
3.66
1.45
6.07
2.08
2.56
5.67
7.25
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
Month
s of
Invento
ry
Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached November 2015
2.53
3.85 3.13
5.38
3.14 3.37 3.02
5.00
3.67
12.75
2.47
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Month
s of
Invento
ry
Absorption Rates - Condominiums November 2015
INF
3.14
8.33
0.00
5.00
2.31 1.59
2.07
3.33 3.33
1.91
4.25
2.41
15.63
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
Month
s of
Invento
ry
Absorption Rates - Townhouses November 2015
2.92
3.33
0.83
3.16
6.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Month
s of
Invento
ry
Absorption Rates - Manufactured Homes November 2015